Coronanomics
 

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[Closed] Coronanomics

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dazh

In the 70s the battle was about pay levels, now it’s going to be about the right to work from home and maintain the flexibility it provides.

Good point there.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 12:18 am
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Dazh, a couple of days ago you said...

I’m very much hoping one of the indirect benefits of all this might be a reduction in the number of pointless management/supervisory roles and greater recognition of people who get things done with a minimum of management interference.

Don't disagree with a word of that but...if it were to happen, it reduces the blame buffer and brings senior management closer to accepting responsibility for their decisions.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 12:35 am
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People may resent the time spent commuting and ask to make it part of their work hours if employer wants them back in office?


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 6:28 am
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I think there's something in that @yourguitarhero.

Like so many things through lockdown, I wonder if a lot of people have realised their priorities in life are different from an hour+ commute, in a crowded part of the country, away from nature and opportunities for outdoor recreation, paying through the nose for houses, cars and shopping for 'stuff'.

I know it won't be anywhere near a majority of people, but a shift for a good few I think is on the cards.

I suspect a few companies will also change how they work and where.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 8:09 am
 dazh
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People may resent the time spent commuting and ask to make it part of their work hours if employer wants them back in office?

That's just one question. Should commuters be paid more to compensate for the extra expense and inconvenience? Should homeworkers be compensated for the energy costs and floorspace? Should savings companies make by reducing office space be passed on to workers? These are all going to be issues running up to the next election.

For me I'm happy to shoulder the costs of working from home in return for the savings that not having to commute provides. Once the covid crisis is over however businesses which stick to homeworking should be sharing the benefits of reduced overheads. And then there's the issue of more widespread and cheaper broadband services. I can almost see Corbyn's free internet policy being revived in some form.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 11:46 am
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I know it won’t be anywhere near a majority of people, but a shift for a good few I think is on the cards.

I was planning it anyway at some point in the future, now I'm being made redundant it's definitely happening. The amount of money I spend on getting out of the city to enjoy the countryside every month is more than the pay drop I need to take by finding work in the countryside.

I'm not the only one thinking like this out of my city-dwelling friends.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 12:06 pm
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I suspect in a few months it will be not just be fighting for the right to work from home but fighting for the right to work and have a home. There's been a massive rise in union membership amongst teachers. Many people are beginning to realise only they will fight their corner. We've already seen the strength of the 'opposition' to a completely incompetent chaotic open goal. It's in the workplace and communities where any significant opposition will emerge.
The government seems clueless but are content to chance pushing people back into the workplace and see what happens. When the matters hit the fan there'll be all sorts of knee-jerk reactions but always they will be siding with the interests of business, landlords, Brexit, Trump, and the forces of law and order will be commanded to actively discourage people from protesting.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 1:43 pm
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I suspect in a few months it will be not just be fighting for the right to work from home but fighting for the right to work and have a home.

This is very true. Mass redundancies and pay cuts are on the horizon and those will push a lot of people over the edge. Today is my last official day at my old work, redundancy is tomorrow. I've been looking for other permanent work and I'm really struggling to find anything that is paying more than minimum wage. Any job that was up in the £10-12 p/h range has suddenly dropped to the bare minimum with virtually no permanent contracts for the full 37.5/39 hours out there. They're all minimum wage with a max of 25-30 hours, the vast majority are 1 day a week guaranteed with the rest overtime if it's available. Companies are very reluctant to take on full time staff right now, costs are being cut to the bone and they want to be able to dump a load of staff costs if we go back down into a lockdown or business takes a dive as everyone is skint. This means that anyone in a job is in a poor negotiating position for arguing for any pay rise, wanting to work from home when the company wants you in the office or asking for any other perk or flexibility. They know that for every job they advertise they will have the choice of picking the best available and paying them rock bottom wages from a big pool.

People are going to have to choose between working all the hours available in a minimum wage job just to keep a roof over their heads or being on benefits if they get made redundant. If you are lucky enough to keep your job then don't expect any pay rise or perks for the next few years, more likely they will both be eroded. The job market is vicious right now and it's only going to get worse.


 
Posted : 31/08/2020 2:54 pm
 dazh
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The FT hits the nail on the head.

https://www.ft.com/content/d8eb62ef-a1cb-4597-867b-15a79dbdcd5d


 
Posted : 01/09/2020 12:59 pm
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If you are lucky enough to keep your job then don’t expect any pay rise or perks for the next few years, more likely they will both be eroded. The job market is vicious right now and it’s only going to get worse.

This gang of Disaster Capitalist shysters can’t believe their luck. We’re going to have mass unemployment (that wasn’t our fault, guv!) just as a no deal Brexit means they’re free from all EU regulation and get to take a hatchet to workers rights.

Don’t expect sick pay, holiday pay, maternity leave or the minimum wage to be around by this time next year as part of any new employment package. The race to the (totally unregulated) bottom starts in earnest on January 1st 2021. And they can’t ****ing wait!

The middle classes are about to have done to them what the Thatcherites did to the working class in the 80’s. And they’re going to come back for seconds on the working class just for good measure.


 
Posted : 01/09/2020 5:57 pm
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https://www.ft.com/content/d8eb62ef-a1cb-4597-867b-15a79dbdcd5d/a >

Daz its behind a paywall, can you summarise?


 
Posted : 01/09/2020 6:09 pm
 Ewan
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 dazh
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Daz its behind a paywall, can you summarise?

That's annoying, I could read it this morning so assumed it was paywall free as part of their coronavirus coverage. Anyway, the premise was much as we've been discussing. Basically good riddance to the Pret economy and looking forward to more even wealth distribution which will benefit both cities and suburban areas. Cities will benefit from more affordable housing, suburbs/towns will benefit from more local trade, everyone will benefit from less commuting. Everyone's a winner basically, apart from Pret and other food and drink franchises which have homogenised our cities.


 
Posted : 01/09/2020 8:10 pm
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If you register with the FT you get a number of articles free each month

I thought it was a good article btw.


 
Posted : 01/09/2020 8:23 pm
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A few thoughts about some recent posts:
- should employers share the cost benefits of WFH with their employees; in short and generally, no. Employees gain from reduced or eliminated commuting costs and, possibly, some flexibility around working hours; employers gain from reduced or eliminated office costs.
Increased utility costs for employees is a small cost to accept in return for benefits of WFH.
Attempts by employers to extend the working day by arguing that commuting time is working time is complete bollocks.
- the (partial) demise of Pret and others on the 'high street' is no bad thing; homogeneity meant that high streets had become identikits. This might be an opportunity for differentiation and the re-emergence of local 'character'.
I referred up there ^^^ somewhere to displacement spending; breakfast coffee/lunchtime baguette/after work 'brainstorming' over beers is easily replaced by home brewed coffee/ local produce in a sandwich made with locally baked bread. After work beers were never anything more than an excuse - been there, done that again and again....
- look at your local high streets; if they generally comprise coffee shops, sandwich shops, charity shops, tattoo parlours and wet bars that could change - for the better - if/when we realise that the 'office culture' was nothing more than a con. What does presenteeism prove?
I fully accept that, for some, enforced WFH has been difficult but for the majority and for a large number of major employers it's the future.
If johnson and his motley crew were truly so exercised by WFH they would surely, to take one example, have most HMRC employees back at their office desks; they haven't - most are still WFH.


 
Posted : 01/09/2020 11:56 pm
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As for the end of Eat out etc I think it's interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
- their margins can support this?
- they're desperate and trying to stave off the inevitable?
- they're trying to buy 'customer loyalty'?
Have they considered that many of their customers - let's call them 'price tarts' - have no loyalty and will, typically, base their decisions on price?
Remember Groupon and how they destroyed the concept of fair/reasonable price by persuading customers that there was always a deal to be done?
Many retailers were burned by that imported concept.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 12:41 am
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Probably not going to endear myself to some who are struggling for work and opportunities here.

Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work? don’t think I’ve ever seen as many. Sort of roughly data management FWIW. It may be a response to trying to do more with reduced resources.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 8:44 am
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Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work? don’t think I’ve ever seen as many. Sort of roughly data management FWIW. It may be a response to trying to do more with reduced resources.

My field of work requires a masters degree, and several more years of on the job training qualifications. There's a fairly fixed pool of people that can do it.
Job adverts are about the same, possibly a bit higher, but the offered salary is much less.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 8:53 am
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As for the end of Eat out etc I think it’s interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?

Some income is better than no income.   I suspect for £10 a head they can lay off a member of staff, or squeeze wages/the supply chain enough to substantiate it.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 9:26 am
 dazh
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Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work?

Not sure there's an increase in vacancies but I seem to be getting more speculative messages on linkedin asking if I'd be interested in discussing 'opportunities'. I suspect that's a result of decreased fluidity in the market. For obvious reasons people are going to be reluctant to move jobs in the current environment. Even if its shit, for the vast majority its a case of better the devil you know. This might also rile some people who've lost their jobs but I was pretty disappointed not to be made redundant in the recent round. One of my colleagues with similar length of service and role walked away with a year's salary and already has another job. I wonder how many others are hanging on with dreams of a big payoff?


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 9:34 am
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There are loads of jobs going in the third sector. Especially for fundraisers.

When Rishi announces the absolutely enormous cuts to public services in his Autumn Budget, those third sector organisations and charities are going to be expected to plug the now gaping holes.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 9:40 am
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Has anyone noticed an increase of job vacancies in their relative fields of work?

Yes, but I can work remotely... I presume you can in your field as well.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 9:42 am
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As for the end of Eat out etc I think it’s interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
– their margins can support this?
– they’re desperate and trying to stave off the inevitable?
– they’re trying to buy ‘customer loyalty’?
Have they considered that many of their customers – let’s call them ‘price tarts’ – have no loyalty and will, typically, base their decisions on price?

Will they be open and staffed Mon-Wed anyway?
Are they full (with reduced distanced capacity) Fri - Sun?
Have they decided that a nearly full restaurant at half price is a better earner than a nearly empty restaurant at full price?

Even half price will more than cover the ingredients, so if you can get people in that is more money to pay the staff and the rent.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 9:54 am
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As for the end of Eat out etc I think it’s interesting that some national/regional chains and independents have chosen to self-fund an extension to/variation of this through September.
What does it mean?
it means nothing because restaurant chains ALWAYS have offers like this on (to the extent that you're being mugged off if you go to one without a voucher!) So yeah, it's built into their margins. (Not that it guarantees their survival, given their general business models).


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 10:05 am
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Yes, but I can work remotely… I presume you can in your field as well.

It became quite apparent quite quickly to my employer that they get more work done in the same amount of time if I’m WFH.

There are loads of jobs going in the third sector. Especially for fundraisers.

Id noticed that, not my role but the right sector.


 
Posted : 02/09/2020 10:10 am
 dazh
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You can almost smell the panic..

https://twitter.com/HelenHet20/status/1301417417193795584?s=20


 
Posted : 03/09/2020 1:28 pm
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deleted. It didn't work.


 
Posted : 07/09/2020 1:17 pm
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"employment in the economy as we know it depends on plenty of unnecessary movement and some degree of pretence."

Sounds like the sort of thing we should be stopping even if there weren't a pandemic on really.


 
Posted : 07/09/2020 3:53 pm
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 dazh
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Good article from a credible source:

'Sheep farming will likely go the same way in the whole of the UK'

So not all bad then 🙂

Seriously though, even now the second wave is building and the job losses are mounting, no one seems at all bothered or worried. This paragraphs should scare the living daylights out of everyone, but it won't..

'Covid-19 outbreaks will massively amplify this destruction. I am not going to attempt to guess the scale of corporate insolvency that is likely if there is another lockdown without support this autumn. Exponential collapse is likely. And if there is a spillover into the City - and that is plausible - expect a full scale banking crisis.'

Can you imagine Boris trying to tackle a banking crisis?


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 1:38 pm
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Good article from a credible source:

Difficult to argue with any of that, really

It's been painfully obvious for a long time that the Disaster Capitalist zealots want to tear up the post war settlement. They want to completely smash up the existing orderThey want the welfare state gone, the NHS privatised and workers rights and environmental standards,- in fact, any regulation whatsover - torched. They want to take us back to the 1930's

And they know that the only way they can do that is to seize 'the opportunity' to do so whilst in the midst of a crisis of their making.

This year has been grim enough. Next year is going to be on another level entirely


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 1:40 pm
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Briefer argument of what is going on:
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1305787185443082240


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 1:51 pm
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Good article from a credible source:

Cummings just want chaos as it suits his skill set - drive it like you stole it. An amazing capacity to bullshit in profession at pace is ideal for stealing a march in a catastrophe. I offer how quickly a narrow margin in an advisory referendum became the legally binding will of the people as an example.


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 1:55 pm
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From the second they 'won' the referendum, the ratchet was turned progressively so that the idea of what 'Brexit' actually was (always a conveniently vague, undefined concept - something about sovereignty?) became progressively more and more extreme.

I believed right from the start that the people behind this, especially Cummings, would only ever settle for the very hardest of a No Deal Brexit, as far from fearing economic chaos, it's what they actively desired all along. A complete rupture from our trading partners ushering in constitutional and economic anarchy.

It's now inevitable. They're making sure of that. And when the country is plunged into total meltdown, those ****ers will be jumping for joy at the 'opportunities' that are presented to them as a result


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 2:02 pm
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It has been suggested that one of the reasons for tearing up the WA was the neo-liberal strictures the EU wished to impose on government intervention in the economy and that Cummings wants that option for his hi-tech fantasies. Plus if half of that account above is true, the absence of intervention will add to the deflation. I think the government know they are standing on a precipice but their whole MO, thinking and dependence on outside interests means that they are simply incapable of developing a strategy or maybe dreaming that it will be sorted 'by the markets'. This is going to be ugly.
That BJ look reminded me of Trump's walk of failure.


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 3:06 pm
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I was planning it anyway at some point in the future, now I’m being made redundant it’s definitely happening. The amount of money I spend on getting out of the city to enjoy the countryside every month is more than the pay drop I need to take by finding work in the countryside.

I’m not the only one thinking like this out of my city-dwelling friends.

We're leaving the city as well - wifes company has said they'll only ever go back to three days a week. It's cheaper for us to live up north and for her to get the train in and stay in a hotel two nights a week. We've had enough of the ****ing noise, the crazy rent, av gas getting dumped on us and it costing us a fortune to get into the hills. What's the point of staying in London if the city life is gutted after the lockdown and you spend all day cooped up in your apartment?


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 3:29 pm
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BillMC, thanks for article you posted recently; I wish it was a glass half empty perspective but I don't think it is.
It's a sober assessment of where we are and where we're headed.
As you wrote...'This is going to be ugly'.
By the time johnson's supporters wake up to what's happening it will be too late - if it isn't already too late.
Stock markets continuing to rise; same for investment valuations - defying logic.
Tech companies, principally the FAANGs, will continue to do well but the UK doesn't have a tech sector worth talking about; sure, some companies are based here but have overseas owners - ARM being a case in point.
I'm deeply pessimistic about most of the economy.


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 3:41 pm
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Don't be too pessimistic. I've seen the future.

We can all deliver pizzas to each other


 
Posted : 15/09/2020 3:58 pm
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It looks like the whole of Lancashire (with the somewhat bizarre exception of Blackpool) is due for another lockdown. These local lockdowns are going to signal the end for a lot of small businesses.

Talking to our mates last night who run a nice bar, where they've been uber-careful and done everything by the book, and they've said that if there is a further lockdown then they're calling it a day and winding the business up. Closing the doors for good on a fantastic and very popular business they've put their hearts and souls into over the last few years. But they're lost so much money that further restrictions will just finish them off.

I really feel sorry for them. If you're in the hospitality business at the moment, you must be tearing your hair out. There must be so many small businesses in the same boat. More lockdowns and there are only going to be the Wetherspoons of this world left, and the places that are simply ignoring the restrictions with impunity as there is no enforcement


 
Posted : 18/09/2020 9:01 am
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By the time johnson’s supporters wake up to what’s happening it will be too late – if it isn’t already too late.

I have family members who think Brexit, Johnson and Mogg are the best things that ever happened to the UK - however instead of posting this all over facebook as they were they have completely shut up about it. My guess is they are beginning to wake up.


 
Posted : 18/09/2020 9:10 am
 dazh
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So Rishi to the rescue today or more half-arsed sticking plasters? Interesting the rumours of adopting the german furlough job-support model. Presumably that's an attempt to stop the wholesale fraud we saw with the furlough scheme. My only hope is that they finally do something about the millions of freelancers who were thrown under the bus in March. Anyone want to place any bets?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 9:30 am
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My only hope is that they finally do something about the millions of freelancers who were thrown under the bus in March.

The vice-chair of the Tory party was on Five Live yesterday confirming that she was unaware of the issue, so we still don't exist.

We are still Schrodinger's workforce. We are neither employees, nor self-employed. Funnily, its a distinction they were unconcerned about with while taxing me (PAYE) over all these years.

We all know we'll be getting the same 'help' we're received so far... **** all!


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 9:45 am
 dazh
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And if anyone was in any doubt about the scale of the problem..

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1309051690948218882?s=20


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 10:14 am
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It'll be a headline grabbing announcement today, with crucial details revealed in a fortnight or so


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 10:19 am
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Rishi to the rescue?
Unlikely.
His introduction will be self congratulatory and refer to the billions spent to date on various schemes before moving onto some limited and tighly focussed additional measures.
This ignores the fact that other large european economies - France and Germany specifically - have spent massively more, by orders of magnitude, and signalled their willingness to do more.
The redundancy count is climbing steadily - few hundred here, few thousand there and before you know it we've reached a scarily big number.
Hospitality sector is dying a death through a thousand cuts.
WFH, where possible, now official policy - again; Julian Metcalfe, pret founder and owner of Itsu, was interviewed yesterday banging on about how gov policies and U-turns are destroying high street retail.
Arts, culture, creative sectors being allowed to die.
Top tier sport will probably change but survive; pro/semi-pro sport below the top tier, is slowly dying.
Tax revenues are falling; budget is cancelled so no chance to implement new/increase taxes - yet.
Government can increase the money supply as either a political or economic decision to stimulate the economy; I can't see that happening.
Stir in the looming disaster of a no deal end to Brexit transition.
Presiding over all of this we have the most lacklustre and incompetent gov for decades - at a time when competence and leadership are desperately needed.
Behind the scenes we have that odious shit cummings who is being allowed to put his
half-baked theories into practice with the public and the economy his expendable lab rats.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 10:26 am
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It sounds like he's continuing the furlough, or a variation, but just not calling it that.

Is that right?

As expected, he was asked about the excluded freelancers/self-employed but just ignored the question. No surprises there then.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 12:22 pm
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Binners, ignoring excluded freelancers/self employed is the new normal. Drives me mad but is entirely expected from this lot.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 12:44 pm
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Is that right?

Im seeing comparisons with the German scheme, not sure how accurate that is.

At first glance it looks like it has the potential to keep SWMBO employed just long enough for her industry to start winding up again late 2021 (for activity mainly in 2022). Reduced income but we’re not heavily/overcommitted financially.

No doubt devil is in the detail but it could be a way out for us.

Youre still under 🚌 by the looks of it unfortunately


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:07 pm
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It sounds like he’s continuing the furlough, or a variation,

It's a fairly huge change, essentially he's just told employers the government will help by paying some of the salary shortfall for staff on reduced hours. However retraining their workforce by reducing hours is going to cost them upto 23% more per hour than laying off a chunk of their employees and keeping the remaining people on full salary and hours.

I wonder how that will work out then.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:08 pm
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Well whatever he does at least we know it will never be enough for the STW left wing brigade.

Cancel away.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:17 pm
 dazh
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Mass unemployment on its way. 1980s creative destruction is back, and in its wake will be a low wage, zero-security, zero-rights economy.

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1309095429867536388?s=20


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:20 pm
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ignoring excluded freelancers/self employed

As I understand it the current scheme for the self employed is due to be continued in a modified format, though what that will be who knows. That of course doesn't address freelance work mind or many others.

Also I don't think they're being ignored it's just no one wants to name the elephant in the room. He's said we can't continue to support non viable jobs, for free lancers that means, if you're not picking up work [because the industry you work in is shot etc] you're out of luck. For the "normally" employed, it basically means unless your employer is expecting a rapid bounce back redundancies are going to be widespread.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:21 pm
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MSE is reporting that it'll continue for self employed if the business is viable. Only 20% so quite a drop from current.

From MSE:
The Chancellor announced further support for self-employed people but didn't provide much further detail.

The Treasury has revealed on social media that the scheme will support "viable traders who are facing reduced demand over the winter months, covering 20% of average monthly trading profits via a government grant."


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:37 pm
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it will never be enough for the STW left wing brigade.

I'm far from left wing and dont think its enough. A maximum 22% contribution from the government is not going to retain jobs when the employer is still going to have find the other 58%. They would have been better targetting more support at key business sectors, that might have saved a few jobs and businesses. This just smacks of we did something knowing it was too little and it would cost us much giving us plausible deniability.

They are doing the same to hospitality, social distancing, 10pm curfews, it's just shutting businesses down by stealth, they aren't economic but the government doesn't take the blame for explicitly closing them.

PS I'm not advocating fully opening up hospitality, the opposite in fact, the extended furlough scheme should have been funneled into this sector (and other similar non essential sectors, the arts and performance venues for example) and then they should been formally told to shut whilst Covid is an issue, being subsidised to do so by the government.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:46 pm
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Also I don’t think they’re being ignored it’s just no one wants to name the elephant in the room. He’s said we can’t continue to support non viable jobs, for free lancers that means, if you’re not picking up work [because the industry you work in is shot etc] you’re out of luck

I can't see there being much left of any of the creative industries by next year. They all shut down completely in March and theres not a single sign of anything looking up any time soon. By then, all the freelancers will be driving Amazon delivery vans or stacking shelves in Tesco. If they're lucky.

There aren't going to be many (non-weatherspoons) pubs or restaurants left either. No way will many independents survive the semi-locked down winter and a socially distanced christmas.

With a tidlewave of redundancies when furlough ends, January looks like it'll be particularly grim this year, when the headbangers crash us out with No Deal.

Something to look forward too, eh?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:49 pm
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Behind the scenes we have that odious shit cummings who is being allowed to put his half-baked theories into practice with the public and the economy his expendable lab rats.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:50 pm
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I’m far from left wing and dont think its enough. A maximum 22% contribution from the government is not going to retain jobs when the employer is still going to have find the other 58%.

The bit I struggle to reconcile is expecting employers to pay 1/3rd of the shortfall. Telling employers they can effectively find an extra person's wage for keeping 4 employees on 1/3rd hours instead of simply getting rid of 2.5 of them. Who is going to do that at a time when turnover is significantly down?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 1:55 pm
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As far as I can tell, on the face of it, it mirrors the French and German schemes so I don't think we can complain too much, when most of us where citing their schemes running longer as the standard a few days ago - obviously the Devil is in the details.

The headline of 80% contribution down to 22% will be shocking, but if they've got their maths right, and businesses up to now have been honest about not bringing people back because of the rules on part-time work it shouldn't be cataclysmic, get someone back 1.5 days a week, pay them for 2 and a bit days a week, Gov matches that and the employee gets a smidgen less than Furlough money to work 1.5 days. It's not ideal for anyone, but that's where we find ourselves.

And yes, lots and lots, and indeed lots of employers have torn the arse out of the furlough rules to fatten their bank balance, of course many more haven't.

This is going to gut some sectors though, it really is. The only positive I can think of is that every business that I know of (and I work b2b with businesses in pretty much every sector) that isn't directly hurt by covid is really, really busy.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 2:39 pm
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and businesses up to now have been honest about not bringing people back because of the rules on part-time work it shouldn’t be cataclysmic, get someone back 1.5 days a week, pay them for 2 and a bit days a week, Gov matches that and the employee gets a smidgen less than Furlough money to work 1.5 days. It’s not ideal for anyone, but that’s where we find ourselves.

Only as an employer you'll probably be much better off simply bringing back half your workforce full time and waving good bye to the rest. Its cheaper to lay off anyone under the age of 21 than keep them on 50% hours, it's cheaper to get rid of anyone under 40 who has been with the company 5 years or less, 3 years or less over 40. Even if its more expensive today, chances are you're going to have to find that redundancy pay for a lot of them in 6 months time anyway.

This will protect an aged work force and throw the young to the wolves.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 3:05 pm
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We clearly need to start an STW political party. There are so many experts on here on every subject imaginable with respect to the current crisis that it would cruise to a landslide victory, eliminate COVID and get the economy booming within 6 months

Or is it not that easy?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 3:15 pm
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*Registers Binners Vaccines and PPE inc with Companies House*


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 3:32 pm
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Self employed musician here.....can't wait to pick up my 20% payment....may as well spend it on Xmas presents as it's not going to cover my mortgage let alone any other bills!

As binners alluded to, time to fill out an application form for a delivery driver job (I actually filled out my first application form this morning) As sad as it sounds, I'm finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it....


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 3:36 pm
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@Tom B Why be embarrassed about it?

My son works in-store for Sainsbury's - has done for several years as his FT permanent job - and what really p!ssed him off were the Facebook and LinkedIn posts from people who had lost their jobs elsewhere and were inferring that they were only taking a job at a supermarket to help out the country at a time of crisis. When actually they were just desperate for some income

Absolutely nothing wrong with working in a supermarket and certainly nothing to be embarrassed about. You need a job so you're applying for one. Others might prefer to sit on their backsides and expect to get a hand out but you are taking positive action

Very best of luck with the application


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 3:48 pm
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Or is it not that easy?

It's not. The people who have the integrity to govern well and for the benefit of the population often are bound closer to the truth, because they are better people. Those who don't give a shit about the welfare of the nation are only in the business to help themselves and their mates make money so they tend to have no scruples about lying their faces off just to get votes. So how do the good people win?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 3:48 pm
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Others might prefer to sit on their backsides and expect to get a hand out

Also nothing wrong with that, either.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 4:07 pm
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This will protect an aged work force and throw the young to the wolves.

The challenge at the moment is there are parts of the aged workforce who were the young thrown to the wolves in their own time. What we have is a double hit - setting some on a path that always sees them economically disadvantaged throughout their lives and others kept on the path of economic disadvantage. At the moment this is just the latest in what for some is series of compounding life events and we have to assume there will be others. What might be the cosy safe middle today could be the aged in the future. If we throw the aged workforce to the wolves now what do we do when they become the retired poor?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 4:09 pm
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I was being facetious molgrips....


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 4:13 pm
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Self employed musician here…..can’t wait to pick up my 20% payment….may as well spend it on Xmas presents as it’s not going to cover my mortgage let alone any other bills!

As binners alluded to, time to fill out an application form for a delivery driver job (I actually filled out my first application form this morning) As sad as it sounds, I’m finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it….

Sorry to hear that. When I lost my job in Banking in 2009 after the crash I found myself in a call centre being introduced to my new 'Supervisor' who was about 10 years my junior. Worst still I was crammed into this grubby little desk, from which if I squinted and the tide of other call centre workers ebbed the right way I could see out of the window and my old double flash office across the road.

I wasn't embarrassed as such, I will never look down on anyone for doing any job. It wasn't really shame either, like now the 'world was ending' and economically at least, it was 'the big one' we were talking about a depression not seen since the 30s. I was the lost of 'status'. Before that I know my Mum, whenever reminded about how much of a **** up I'd been in my teens could say "He's an Account Manager for RBS commercial " and this was pre-Banker bashing so some people at least used to hold us in reasonable esteem. I didn't even tell my mates that's what I was doing, mostly because it was very short term, I took another job in an equally horrible office for equally terrible money for a couple of horrible bosses, but it 'sounded' like a better job at least. Maybe it was embarrassment, but it felt different, it was like someone came along whipped away 50% of my self-worth in an instant, and it took a good while to get it back.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 4:14 pm
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What might be the cosy safe middle today could be the aged in the future. If we throw the aged workforce to the wolves now what do we do when they become the retired poor?

You're right of course, though if the alternative is a working poor the old will by and large (since most will be on market related pensions) be retired poor as well.

The issue is that policies like this coupled with ones like redundancy pay being related to age positively encourage the preferential treatment of older employees over younger ones.

The difficulty is finding a middle ground which doesn't actively support one demographic in favour of another.

As sad as it sounds, I’m finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it….

Difficult as know it can be to remember sometimes, very few people go to work for the cachet or the pleasure of it. Never be embarrassed about what you do to put food on the table. Working as a delivery driver doesn't make you more or less valuable than a Dr, but I know who people would want back first if they all went on strike tomorrow, and they don't wear white coats.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 4:23 pm
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Being self employed I was keenly awaiting Richis announcement today.

Extending self employment help scheme, yay 😀

Only 20% of average, WTF 🤬

What adds to the annoyance of a basic lack of funds, is the extra layer of bullshit in describing this as being on a similar level of support as the job retention schemes 20%v60% plus top up. Wouldn’t expect exactly the same without the addition of more complex mechanics but cut the BS please.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 4:42 pm
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Working as a delivery driver doesn’t make you more or less valuable than a Dr, but I know who people would want back first if they all went on strike tomorrow, and they don’t wear white coats.

Most people on most days certainly. There are some situations when a doctor is rather more necessary than next day amazon delivery.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 5:07 pm
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Refugee from the entertainment industry here. The company (in fact the group of 7 companies) folded at the end of July, once Furlough started to come to an end. In 2019 we turned over in excess of £20M. Now its all gone.

No idea what happens next. I was excellent at my job. I'd been doing it for 23 years - I bloody well should have been. I've done some stuff I was very, very proud of and a had a reputation for getting difficult stuff done well. Normally losing ones job means going freelance for a bit, but there's just nothing out there - the whole industry has vanished - all my freelance mates have been sat at home staring at the wall since March unable to afford to do anything; those who were in full time employment are either like me and now redundant or bricking it because they're about to be. None of us have the slightest clue when, or indeed if it'll come back. So many companies are going under that all the kit is vanishing, so that it can't just spring back to life again.

I can apply myself to pretty much anything, but am qualified for nothing and looking at vacancies for similar sounding jobs in different industries with passably grown up pay scales gives me no hope that it'll be anything other than a waste of time applying.

I'm fortunate in that the redundancy payout has covered my outstanding mortgage, and several mates have chucked me some temporary work (I start building a bike skills area in a week's time), but its a hefty shock to the system to go from being near Higher Earner tax bracket to £10/hr (which is what I was earning in the '90s) AND realising/being grateful that even that is a good chunk above minimum wage! Being mid 40s and digging holes for a living is not going to be sustainable in the long term


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 5:57 pm
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There is nothing in today’s announcement for any company forced by law to stay closed. Nothing. Deeply depressing.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 6:30 pm
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There are entire industries that are about to be absolutely decimated. Completely wiped out. The industry I (used to) work in is completely screwed. As are the rest of the creative industries. They’ve completely ceased to function in any meaningful way.

Small businesses are going to go down like dominoes.

We’re definitely on for mass unemployment worse than the 80’s

I don’t actually think this lot give a shit.

In fact, I think some of them are privately quite happy as it’ll give them an excuse for the economic carnage that no deal is about to deliver.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 7:26 pm
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 As sad as it sounds, I’m finding it hard not to be embarrassed about it….

Why do you think you are better that that? Better than the people who ordinarily do as their job. I work in the conference industry, I've spent the last 25 years travelling all over the world working, flying business on long haul, staying in some very nice hotels, eating in some very good restaurants and  now I'm up at 4:30 every morning emptying maggot infested bins. I'm actually walking the streets where I live, emptying the bins of friends and neighbours. Do I think I'm better than that, no I don't, do I think I'm better than the regulars who've been doing it for years, no ****ing way! Get over it, you never know you might even find you actually like some aspects of the job.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 7:36 pm
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Edit. CBA


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 7:57 pm
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In fact, I think some of them are privately quite happy as it’ll give them an excuse for the economic carnage that no deal is about to deliver.

The big job loss numbers will start to hit the headlines some time over the next few weeks, no doubt.

Once people start to get hit in the pocket by it and realise that they were the numbers the headlines were talking about we'll have the "final" stage of the Brexit disaster then they can blame the mass unemployment/poverty/riots on Brexit rahter than their mishandling of Covid.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 8:12 pm
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Why do you think you are better that that?

Did you consider that he might be embarrassed because he knows he'll be judged by loads of other people based on the job he does?


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 8:19 pm
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notmyrealname
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Once people start to get hit in the pocket by it and realise that they were the numbers the headlines were talking about we’ll have the “final” stage of the Brexit disaster then they can blame the mass unemployment/poverty/riots on Brexit rahter than their mishandling of Covid.

Even in these crappy political times, they'll have to pick one or the other- and brexit is the thing they want, so covid will be the scapegoat. Economic carnage from covid will be depicted as unavoidable- in fact, we'll be told that the only reason it's as good as it is, is because the government did so well, and we should all be grateful. And brexit will be a glorious success.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 8:32 pm
 dazh
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Others might prefer to sit on their backsides and expect to get a hand out

I've been waiting for years for an opportunity to post this.


 
Posted : 24/09/2020 11:25 pm
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