[Closed] Conservative Government, 2019 to 29(ish). Predictions?

An End to the UK. United ireland and independent scotland now look highly likey

A united Ireland is possibly one of the small silver Linings to this **** storm.

Economic depression within 2 years.

Death Penalty

oh and

#freebinners

I wonder what'll happen to Wales when Ireland gets unified and Scotland becomes independent. I think people here have in the past looked to Scotland and NI as equal constituents of the UK but it's going to feel pretty shite if we're the only ones left stuck with England.

Fox hunting replaced by ne-er-do-well hunting.

2021 Ne-er-do-well Hunting biopic starring Matt Damon as BJ sweeps the boards at the Oscars.

I'm English and fed up of it at the moment, don't tar us all with the same brush please
I have a horrible feeling there'll be five more years of austerity, even wider inequalities and even more post-truth bulls###
I work in the public sector and find it staggering that half my office voted conservative today when they're worse off from the last nine years

Economic boom anyone?

^^
Short term, yes, possibly. Mainly as it's been in stasis for so long. Medium term onwards it gets (sadly) interesting.

I suspect that I will be hunted down by Tory secret police because I didn't vote for them. I'll then live out my days in an internment camp which will pretty much just be the north of England.

hopefully something like this

Johnson sells everything possible.
Johnson goes orange.
Johnson rebuilds hadrians wall.

No achievable trade deal with EU, crash out with no deal

Like single mums and the DUP, I think the ERG are going to be the next group of folk that are going to find out, you really really can't trust Johnson. There's no reason for Johnson to listen to them at all. I don't think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

Like single mums and the DUP, I think the ERG are going to be the next group of folk that are going to find out, you really really can’t trust Johnson. There’s no reason for Johnson to listen to them at all. I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

Depressingly, this is about the most optimistic thing out there at the moment.

Agree with nickc- Michael Heseltine was saying as much on the radio the other day. In some ways a Tory landslide is better than a slim majority as he doesn't need the hard liners.... that's assuming the moderate tories are still moderate.

We're still by and large ****ed though

Johnson will be gone soon, he will be replaced by a much more compliant operator to actually push through the changes. His job was merely to win the election, although I doubt he knows, the financiers don't want an incompetent buffoon around for too long, that would cause a backlash. They will leverage his per-election baggage, the Russian interference report and his fraudulent financing of his pole technology expert to move him on quickly.

I imagine a few autobiographies written by leading politicians attempting to cash in.

I predict they'll be sitting around a table discussing what to do about the troublesome Scots

@somafunk thankfully I have a stash of bottle caps for such an eventually. Anyone know the chemical composition of Jet?

I work in the public sector and find it staggering that half my office voted conservative today when they’re worse off from the last nine years

Maybe. but you have to respect the will of the majority - to be poorer, eat crap food, and step over homeless people on the way to their zero-hours job.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened

I can see the headline:

Johnson goes flaccid after election high.

You don't have to predict anything. It's in the manifesto.

.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

The ultimate irony. The only way to do Johnson's mythical quick deal is to stay aligned with the EU, so what exactly was the point of the whole project? This was always on the cards; we waste an enormous amount of time and money on Brexit to basically end up with the status quo, minus any influence within the EU.

@torsoinalake

It's just a manefesto, they never get delivered anyway and half the things on that list would either get batted down by the Lords or challenged in the supreme court

It's a dpressing read, but manefestos are fictional anyway

The boundary changes, this will be one of the first things to further solidify tory control - JRM and Cummings have been far too quiet

Fentanyl addiction to reach epidemic levels in small towns across the country

I agree with nickc too - we are in the proverbial but we could be in deeper. Johnson can afford to flick the ERG the V's now, and they know it. A small majority would be ghastly.
Expect a pivot in 5,4,3........oh he's a one nation tory now! I'm shocked, shocked I tell you. Just like his old chum CMD. And now the red lines are getting a bit pink, and oh, there you go, Brino.

Politics is about being in power, and the cost? The rebate and a veto.

Don't get me wrong, there is going to be some dreadful changes ahead. I can't see the break up of the Union being one of them though. Northern Ireland maybe, Scotland no. Leavers need to be consistently polling c60% to nail that one on.

"The ultimate irony. The only way to do Johnson’s mythical quick deal is to stay aligned with the EU, so what exactly was the point of the whole project? This was always on the cards; we waste an enormous amount of time and money on Brexit to basically end up with the status quo, minus any influence within the EU."

I suspect "The point of the whole project" was nothing like anything we think or could imagine it was.

Between 2008 and 2016 I lived in South Africa (for the second time after living there for 8 yrs as a kid) and I've seen a lot of similarities between what's been going on in the UK over the last 5 years and what was going on in South Africa during "the Guptagate" years. the Big Picture is nothing like and has nothing to do with the stuff they have everyone squabbling and arguing over.

As Fraser from Dad’s Army would say “we’re doomed”.

Johnson will be gone soon,

When he finds out you actually have to work at this job. When he realises he can't just waffle through the odd speech now and then and Chuck a bit of Latin about, that there is hard graft afoot, he'll be off like a shot.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

Depends. Want it done by the end of 2020? Either give in to everything the EU wants or go out on WTO rules. Either way that's 4-6% off the GDP on top of what the looming slowdown does.

Want a 'real' free trade agreement? 5 years. Meanwhile, a shrinking economy, payments to the EU and no say whatsoever.

No extra nurses, no extra police, no new hospitals, plenty of lies and there’s **** all we can do about it

Actually can we impeach the PM for lying? (And for financial gain via Brexit)

Johnson will be going nowhere. He has to deliver for his paymasters

No deal brexit will happen as well. It's what those who pay him want

that there is hard graft afoot, he’ll be off like a shot

I know someone who worked directly for him at the FCO… he’ll be going nowhere, and is perfectly able to avoid the hard work, and sell himself as being the man suitable for his role precisely because he avoids that work.

Prediction? A lot of resigning ministers taking the blame for his government’s mistakes. A lot of civil servants retiring early, or moving posts, to try and avoid the sticky problems coming down from the top.

Johnson will be going nowhere. And he’s already won the next election; boundaries and laws will be changed to ensure it.

go out on WTO rules

That won’t mean anything by the end of next year. Some of the biggest global players are going to neuter the WTO so that they can do what they want with smaller players (like us). They probably wouldn’t have taken this route if it wasn’t for us decreasing the power and size of the EU. It’s a reminder that we made a decision that effects the whole world in 2016, not just Little Britain.

Another prediction? Both EU & USA trade deals will occur quicker than many people will expect… on terms more acceptable to them than us… we won’t have the WTO arbitration to fall back on, or be able to unilaterally stop ourselves falling out of the single market and customs union… we will sign anything.

at the FCO… he’ll be going nowhere, and is perfectly able to avoid the hard work

I was thinking about that when I wrote it. Much harder to hide behind underlings when you are PM than foreign office. It requires actual homework to even sound remotely in touch. I think the usual waffle won't hold up for long. Remember he has borrowed votes from people who don't normally vote Tory. They are not going to be patient.
He already looks like a man at the end of his rope. He's knackered and hasn't even started.

Both EU & USA trade deals will occur quicker than many people will expect

What are we going to sell them? Most of our exports are services (around 80% iirc). They are going to take us to the wall.

The most obvious partner, in terms of existing relationships, is Canada. They share our monarch, after all. Their banking system is highly regulated, so no chance there. There farmers are well protected, so that's out. Even the Americans couldn't crack those red ones and they are worth over 20 times the trade.

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers. No EU subsidies, no market to sell to. They are in for hard times.

That won’t mean anything by the end of next year.

Maybe, but our deal is supposed to be done before that. So eye watering tariffs all around.

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers.

I agree. They’ll be sacrificed.

I think BoJo is exactly who the puppet and pay masters want, they don't want someone with a clear political ideology themselves, they want someone that just wants to be PM and is happy to be told what to say and do.

I think the next 5 years is still largely going to be about Brexit and the next GE will be about whether the Tories can convince those in the Labour ex-strongholds that there continuing/worsening situation is the EU's fault rather than the Tories fault. If they can then the following 5 years is when we'll see the true Tory policies start to kick in.

I'd certainly be worried if I was in middle to senior management in the Civil Service, Cummings is about to gut it - it's his main prize for masterminding this whole shit show.

I predict lots of petty mini Gammon pleasing acts in the first year or so. Petty, trivial stuff that requires little effort to put in place, gets good coverage in the daily Mail but contributes nothing postive to the country.

See the current thing about decriminalision non payment of the BBC licesnse fee and criminalision of traveller camps. Expect more of that sort of thing. Some sort of anti cycling laws would also serve this aim, which worries me.

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers

The ones with all the Brexit and Vote Conservative signs in their fields?

I think BoJo is exactly who the puppet and pay masters want, they don’t want someone with a clear political ideology themselves, they want someone that just wants to be PM and is happy to be told what to say and do.

Plenty of good reading here about that idea…

https://bylinetimes.com/byline-times-box-sets/box-set-boris-johnson/

More matching scarves?
https://news.sky.com/story/mps-return-to-westminster-for-a-week-of-re-shuffles-meetings-and-votes-11887895

The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers

The turkeys who voted for Christmas.
The fishing lobby is not going to be happy either.

I don’t think our Brexit is going to be anything like as hard as has been previously threatened.

This. It'll be BRINO, followed by business as usual for a few years. The ERG will be ignored, they'll be powerless for a while, but will start to complain and the whole brexit debate will start again in the run up to the next election in the form of no deal vs soft deal. Labour could recover very quickly on a pro-soft brexit stance and an overtly pro-regions programme of investment and devolution of power away from London. They could make an instant start to that by proposing Parliament be moved north.

"The ones I feel sorry for are the UK farmers."

Just like the UK Fishermen and the 'working class northerners' - **** them. They voted for this shit show, they shat all over their bed, now they can live with the consequences of their actions. They can refer to it as their Brexit Dividend.

Universal credit is going to seem like utopia by 2029.

Another prediction? Both EU & USA trade deals will occur quicker than many people will expect… on terms more acceptable to them than us

We cannot do comprehensive quick trade deals with both of them, because they will have opposing demands. US will want us to reduce standards to accept their stuff in return for buying ours, whereas EU will need us to maintain standards to sell to them.

I wonder about the following:

Will Boris be running in 2024? His party have got a large majority, but has he? There will already be Tory MPs plotting his downfall or at least their own bid for PM.

He'll get his (May's) withdraw through early next year, but will the ERG buoyed by the GE want him to scrap that now for a 'clean break'? Even if that doesn't happen - once the civil cold war of Brexit eases and politics becomes boring again, will he be able to function as 'just the PM'.

Once again - not everyone in the North voted for this shitshow... Did no one in the South return a conservative MP? Oh yes, so they did.

Once again – not everyone in the North voted for this shitshow… Did no one in the South return a conservative MP? Oh yes, so they did.

I wouldn't take it personally, some people are still at the Anger and Barging stage of grief.

BBC to become full on Tory/Boris/Cummings propaganda vehicle (More so than whatever you think of it now), if it wants to continue to exist in anything like its current form.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/15/boris-johnson-threatens-bbc-with-two-pronged-attack?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Look like sensible ideas to me. Boundary review for example. Last done before 2006 in England. Earlier in Scotland. Long overdue. Usually done every 8 - 12 years.

The good thing about the proposals being in the manifesto is that the House of Lords can't block them.

Why do some of you think it will be a soft brexit?
Johnsons paymasters want a no deal brexit

"I wouldn’t take it personally, some people are still at the Anger and Barging stage of grief."

If that's pointed at me, then I am at the resigned / accepting stage.

Despite a lifetime of being left of center and voting for whichever party would be best placed to create the better society, I now feel absolutely exasperated. The conservatives have been pretty clear around the society they wish to create and those who will be worst hit are the very same as those who voted for them.

I acknowledged this risk before the brexit vote result and put things in place to try to ensure that I & my family will be minimally affected. At the end of the day, I am white, middle aged, middle class, educated and established in my career. There will be many far worse off than I. Christ, I'll probably be given a tax cut.

However those that will be worse off under this government and their policies are those that voted for this shower. I've seen comments on social media along the lines of "I voted tory because with my minimum paid job plus universal credit, I can't afford rent" and "I voted Tory because of the way PIP benefits was handled and I want better benefits" Those folk can lie in their soiled bed after their dirty protest.

They voted with their eyes open to create a worse life for themselves.

Who exactly are BoJos backers? Trump, or Putin, or both? And at home - the disaster capitalists people keep talking about?

Disaster capitalism works best with a full on disaster, not with a "bit of a bad day" so if the plan is to make them rich(er) then it's got to be "disaster set to 11".

Why do some of you think it will be a soft brexit?
Johnsons paymasters want a no deal brexit

Johnson only cares about face, not about ideology because ideology requires principles. He's set a deadline that he'll try to meet, and the only way to meet it will be to agree to the EU's demands and not argue too much. So a quick deal requires a soft Brexit.

Who exactly are BoJos backers?

Billionaire financiers, Crispin Odey, Aaron Banks types.

Look like sensible ideas to me. Boundary review for example. Last done before 2006 in England. Earlier in Scotland. Long overdue. Usually done every 8 – 12 years.

The good thing about the proposals being in the manifesto is that the House of Lords can’t block them.

Only reason they’ll do that is to further cement their position in power in future elections. You think that there being no checks on government policy is a good thing?

I reckon that Boris and Cummings ( among others ) will manage to stay in position just as long as it suits the shadowy puppet masters in the background, and as soon as that changes there will be some sort of scandal all over the broadsheets that’s will “ force “ them to resign.
How long ?
A year to 18 months ... 2 years max

as soon as that changes there will be some sort of scandal all over the broadsheets that’s will “ force “ them to resign.

Given all he’s got away with so far, that’s going to be a short list of things that are bad enough for him to resign over, yet not criminal.

Rather predictably this potentially seems to be happening already.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-workers-rights-environment-climate-change-election-a9248611.html

It is going too be a pretty shitty 5 years. Similar to Thatchers years I imagine which I remember all too well.

When he finds out you actually have to work at this job. When he realises he can’t just waffle through the odd speech now and then and Chuck a bit of Latin about, that there is hard graft afoot, he’ll be off like a shot.

I doubt he's planning to do any work, simply goof about and blame everyone else.
It's worked so far ...

I doubt he’s planning to do any work

I think e should ask Cummings first. He already looks like he's aged 5 years over the weekend. He's knackered and all he's done so far is about face on worker protections and threaten to end the Beeb. Guess he didn't think they were sufficiently uncritical.

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tomhoward

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as soon as that changes there will be some sort of scandal all over the broadsheets that’s will “ force “ them to resign.

Given all he’s got away with so far, that’s going to be a short list of things that are bad enough for him to resign over, yet not criminal.

Yes, but so far those broadsheets haven’t wanted to get rid so they haven’t

Once it suits they’ll decide even a relatively trivial thing becomes a resignation issue

He already looks like he’s aged 5 years over the weekend.

A weekend on the coke will do that ....

Molgrips - or a no deal. Any deal the EU offers will not be to his paymasters satisfaction. the only thing that will satisfy them is no deal

Barclay brothers are also his paymasters as are GoldenTree Asset Management who paid him a pure bribe of almost £100 000 ( for a speech) Plus numerous others who have bribed him. He is as corrupt as they come, cares nothing for ideology only about power and riches and he will do the bidding of those who bribed him which is No deal brexit

This is Johnsons declared extra income

1. Employment and earnings
Payments from Hodder and Stoughton UK, Carmelite House, 50 Victoria
Embankment, London EC4Y 0DZ, via United Agents, 12-26 Lexington St, London
W1F 0LE:
29 September 2017, received £15,372.17 for royalties on book already
written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is
a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December
2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
229
17 October 2017, received £1,167.40 for Bulgarian and Hungarian
subrights and royalties on book already written. Hours: no additional
hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is a late entry which was the
subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by the Select Committee
on Standards.
8 February 2018, received £499.49 for Czech subrights on book already
written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 12 March 2018) This is a
late entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December
2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
30 March 2018, received £6,013.27 for royalties on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 17 April 2018)
17 April 2018, received £560.13 for Czech subrights on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 09 May 2018)
10 July 2018, received £11,290.17 for French and US royalties on books
already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 22 August 2018)
This is a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6
December 2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
28 September 2018, received £8,968.27 via United Agents, 12-26 Lexington
St, London W1F 0LE, for royalties on book already written. Hours: no
additional hours. (Registered 02 November 2018)
12 December 2018, received £525.12 for Hungarian subrights on book
already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 17 December 2018)
16 January 2019, received £909.78 for US subrights on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 04 February 2019)
Payments from HarperCollins UK, 1 London Bridge Street, London, SE1 9GF via
United Agents, 12-26 Lexington St, London W1F 0LE:
26 September 2017, received £1,382.58 for advance on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is a late
entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by
the Select Committee on Standards.
11 January 2018, received £5,970.76 for US and Dutch royalties on book
already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 05 February 2018)
5 July 2018, received £37.82 for French royalties on book already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 22 August 2018) This is a late
entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by
the Select Committee on Standards.
23 October 2018, received £491.75 via Rogers, Coleridge and White Ltd, 20
Powis Mews, London W11 1JN, for royalties on books already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 02 November 2018)
Payments from HarperCollins UK, 1 London Bridge St, London SE1 9GF, via
Rogers, Coleridge and White Ltd, 20 Powis Mews, London W11 1JN:
30 September 2017, received £42.79 for royalties on books already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20 December 2017) This is a late
entry which was the subject of a Report, published on 6 December 2018, by
the Select Committee on Standards.
230
30 April 2018, received £244.91 for royalties on books already written.
Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 09 May 2018)
19 December 2018, received £435.72 for Ukrainian subrights on book already
written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 15 January 2019)
5 September 2017, received £63.72 from Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London
WC2R 0RL, via United Agents, 12-26 Lexington St, London W1F 0LE, for
royalties on book already written. Hours: no additional hours. (Registered 20
December 2017) This is a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published
on 6 December 2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
From 11 July 2018 until 10 July 2019, articles for the Telegraph Media Group
Ltd, 111 Buckingham Palace Road, London SW1W 0DT, for which I expect to
receive £22,916.66 a month. Hours: 10 hrs a month. First payment received on
13 August 2018. I consulted ACoBA about this appointment. (Registered 17
September 2018) This is a late entry which was the subject of a Report, published
on 6 December 2018, by the Select Committee on Standards.
Payments from The Spectator (1828) Ltd, 22 Old Queen Street, London SW1H
9HP, for articles:
28 September 2018, received £800. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 15 October
2018)
21 December 2018, received £350. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 15 January
2019)
9 October 2018, received £2,000 from Associated Newspapers Ltd, Northcliffe
House, 2 Derry Street, London W8 5TT, for an article. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 02
November 2018)
2 November 2018, received £94,507.85 from GoldenTree Asset Management, 300
Park Avenue, 21st Floor, New York, NY 10022 via Chartwell Speakers, 14 Gray’s
Inn Road, London WC1X 8HN, for a speaking engagement on 8 November 2018.
Travel and accommodation also provided. Hours: 2 hrs. (Registered 09 November
2018)
Payments received through via Jeremy Lee Associates, 14 Berners Street, London,
W1T 3LJ, for speaking engagements. I consulted ACoBA about this arrangement.
(Registered 16 January 2019)
21 December 2018, received £28,900 from KNect365, KNect House, 30-32
Mortimer Street, London W1W 7RE, for a speaking engagement on 4
December 2018. Hours: 2 hrs. Transport and accommodation also provided.
(Registered 16 January 2019)
25 January 2019, received £51,250 from Pendulum Events & Training, 13
Upper Baggot Street, Dublin 4, D04 W7K5, Ireland, for a speaking
engagement on 10 January 2019. Hours: 2 hrs. Transport also provided.
(Registered 04 February 2019)
2. (b) Any other support not included in Category 2(a)
Name of donor: Jon Wood
Address of donor: private
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: £50,000 for office and
staffing costs
Date received: 1 October 2018
231
Date accepted: 1 October 2018
Donor status: individual
(Registered 17 October 2018)
Name of donor: CTF Partners Limited
Address of donor: 4th Floor, 6 Chesterfield Gardens, London W1J 5BQ
Amount of donation: Interest free loan of £20,000 for office and staffing costs,
repaid on 18 January 2019.
Date received: 20 December 2018
Date accepted: 20 December 2018
Donor status: company, registration 07196537
(Registered 04 January 2019, updated 18 January 2019)
Name of donor: CTF Partners Limited
Address of donor: 4th Floor, 6 Chesterfield Gardens, London W1J 5BQ
Amount of donation: £3,000 for office and staffing costs.
Date received: 21 December 2018
Date accepted: 21 December 2018
Donor status: company, registration 07196537
(Registered 04 January 2019)
Name of donor: J C Bamford Excavators Ltd
Address of donor: Lakeside Works, Rocester, Uttoxeter ST14 5JP
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: £10,000
Date received: 15 January 2019
Date accepted: 15 January 2019
Donor status: company, registration 00561597
(Registered 18 January 2019)
3. Gifts, benefits and hospitality from UK sources
Name of donor: Surrey County Cricket Club
Address of donor: The Kia Oval, Kennington, London SE11 5SS
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: Two tickets with
hospitality to Test Match at the Oval, value £1,800
Date received: 8 September 2018
Date accepted: 8 September 2018
Donor status: company, registration IP27896R
(Registered 01 October 2018)
Name of donor: Democratic Unionist Party
Address of donor: 91 Dundela Avenue, Belfast BT4 3BU
Amount of donation, or nature and value if donation in kind: Hospitality and travel
to Belfast for myself and a member of staff, estimated value £355.94
Date received: 24 November 2018
Date accepted: 24 November 2018
Donor status: registered political party
(Registered 20 December 2018)
4. Visits outside the UK
Name of donor: American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
Address of donor: 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036
Estimate of the probable value (or amount of any donation): For myself, flights
£6,666.09, hotel accommodation £1,459.52 and other costs of £1,059.56; for my
staff member, flights £6,666.09, hotel £994.82; total £16,846.09
232
Destination of visit: Washington DC, USA
Dates of visit: 13-15 September 2018
Purpose of visit: To receive Irving Kristol Award at AEI Annual Dinner.
(Registered 15 October 2018)
Name of donor: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Address of donor: PO Box 55937, Riyadh 11544
Estimate of the probable value (or amount of any donation): Travel, food and
accommodation, estimated value of £14,000
Destination of visit: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Dates of visit: 19 – 21 September 2018
Purpose of visit: Meeting with regional figures to promote education for women
and girls.
(Registered 17 October 2018)
6. Land and property portfolio: (i) value over £100,000 and/or (ii) giving rental income
of over £10,000 a year
From 1 November 2016, house in London, owned jointly with my wife: (i) and,
from 1 March 2017, (ii). (Registered 20 March 2017)
From 4 October 2018, a 20% share of a residential property in Somerset: (i) and
(ii). (Registered 17 January 2019)

And yet they’ll still vote for him. The conservative banners will be draped over the farmers fence/wall/hedge at the next election up and down the country.

It's funny that people are always pointing the finger at shadowy figures who apparently are making money from Brexit/Johnson/Tories, yet all the people I know personally from this sort of world (a couple of hedge fund managers, former CEO of a major bank, etc) are all pro-Brexit, anti-Johnson, anti-Trump. They're also anti-Corbyn, but that's a different story.

JP

are all pro-Brexit, anti-Johnson,

If they are pro brexit who are they pro if not Johnson, Farage? Rees Mogg?

Apparently the appropriate response to the EU being concerned that a deal can't be done in a year and them suggesting they might ask for an extension is to pass a law prevented an extension being granted. So a nearly hard brexit looks like it is back on the table. Seems like ERG aren't nearly as sidelined as people thought.

No deal is what Johnsons backers want

A no deal Brexit isn't just about short-term financial gains for BoJo's backers, it's also about the continuation of disaster capitalism which started post financial crash when austerity was enacted, allowing the Tories to slash government funding without much rebellion as people sucked it up as a necessary evil. The chaos that will ensue from a no deal Brexit will allow this continue but more likely focused on fundamental changes to legislation to more radically shape the country to the Tory ideology than would otherwise be possible

"we need to boost the economy and research shows the best way to do this is by cutting corporation tax." Can't remember which Tory MP I heard claim this on a Radio 4 interview on increasing revenue through taxes. I guess the extra taxes will come from the plebs, since we have so much money already.

Also, "we [the Tories] believe everyone should be subscribing to a mandatory healthcare insurance scheme". Different minister, different interview. The day after votes were counted.

People vote for all sorts of complex reasons. In USA one of the most powerful factors in voting habit is whether abortion should be legal. Democracy rulez OK.

Apparently the appropriate response to the EU being concerned that a deal can’t be done in a year and them suggesting they might ask for an extension is to pass a law prevented an extension being granted. So a nearly hard brexit looks like it is back on the table. Seems like ERG aren’t nearly as sidelined as people thought.

Cummings is a fan of game theory.

Expect brinkmanship to feature front and centre in his strategies for everything possible.

My Nan witnessed the soldiers being sent in by Churchill during the Tonypandy riots so I grew up/indoctrinated anti Tory. I didn't think anything could get worse after seeing the decline of the Valleys post 1980s but now who knows?

I'm beyond any disdain for them- they're only playing to type. I feel more aggrieved that Labour couldn't make a decent opposition.

I'm in the same demography as scruff so although I'll hopefully be ok, there will plenty that aren't.

Cummings is a fan of game theory.

I wonder if he has read the chapter about the fly the buzzes around the humans face vs the one that doesn't. One gets squashed. There is a difference between brinkmanship and needling the people you need goodwill from.

Complex problem - clearly the fault of the French...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-50823925

I suspect we'll see a lot more of this too.