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However, the news story says it was a Sidewinder, which is heat-seeking. I’m amazed that the balloon would have enough of a heat signature to get a lock on. I would have assumed a radar guided AMRAAM would have been used.
Indeed, but it's an IR homing missile, so it would have had a signature, even if it was radiated from being exposed to the sun.
We'll also never likely know what sort of signature the kit strapped under it was producing either.
Needless to say, it was engaged in a way many of our experts here said it couldn't be.
Needless to say, it was engaged in a way many of our experts here said it couldn’t be.
Are you questioning the expertise of STWers? How very dare you?
There’s no explosion from the missile impact, there’s a trail and then the balloon starts venting. It looks very much like they intentionally punctured the balloon , that way the balloon’s own drag will slow the descent of the payload meaning there’s more to recover. Given the short range of the engagement and the slow speed and little manoeuvring of the target, the missile could’ve been simply fired along an intercept vector intended to physically hit and puncture the balloon. I think the reports stated that the F22 had reached altitude parity with the balloon, so just a straightforward shot?
I reckon you can see an explosion.
the balloon’s own drag will slow the descent of the payload meaning there’s more to recover
Then they will be disappointed as you can clearly see the payload/solar panels falling away much faster than the balloon.
That said I would expect the interesting bits to be reasonably intact even after that fall - enough to get an idea of what it was doing anyway.
No warhead on the Sidewinder, according to this:
The Inside Story on the F-22's Chinese Spy Balloon Kill - YouTube
However, the news story says it was a Sidewinder, which is heat-seeking
It's reported as Sidewinder AIM9-X; the F22 and F35 have the capability to direct the missile after launch
AIM9-X can also be launched from the ground using the same capability against cruise missiles
I'm disappointed that the balloon wasn't brought down by an STWer on a parachute from space wielding an artisanal EDC knife in each hand 😀
I reckon you can see an explosion.
If you've seen footage of high altitude balloons just bursting, this was identical. Tiny bits of the balloon go everywhere they are under a lot of tension.
I see they're collecting the parts as we speak.
No doubt they'll add a few of their own so it could not be mistaken for anything other than a spy balloon.
Members of the public have been warn not to touch any pieces of the balloon which may be washed ashore as they will be tampering with a "federal investigation" :
I am not sure what they are investigating - it's a spy balloon innit?
It looks totally broken now.
Our neighbours balloon flew into our garden in the early 80s.
US has started hiding planes directly under other planes to avoid prying Chinese eyes.
https://twitter.com/jxlars/status/1622010477520764928
I am not sure what they are investigating – it’s a spy balloon innit?
I suspect they will mostly want to see what sensors it has. They know where it came from, they will want to know what data it was collecting.
So all they know about it is what the Chinese told them?
Edit : What if it turns out that it was just a weather balloon?
I’m sure the US intel bods are doing their best to keep us all informed about everything they know and learn. It’s generally how they work.
......meanwhile the Chinese have revealed their photo of Nato's secret spy balloon.........
I’m sure the US intel bods are doing their best to keep us all informed about everything they know and learn. It’s generally how they work.
No way? You mean they keep secrets? Is that a bit like defence not sharing the true capabilities of weapons and platforms? So the forum experts are just punters with an opinion?
I need to go for a lay down. It's all too much.
I see the Chinese are remaining seriously committed to their narrative - according to the State Council the head of the Chinese Meteorological Administration, a senior communist party member and expert in atmospheric physics, has been sacked.
First kill for the F22 Raptor - hopefully might be the only one as they are being withdrawn in the 2030's.
I am surprised that it was not shot down over Alaska or Canada.
according to the State Council the head of the Chinese Meteorological Administration, a senior communist party member and expert in atmospheric physics, has been
sackedshot.
FTFY.
According to Ars Technica these balloons are used legitimately a bit but have an internal destruction system that brings them down [in the ocean or somewhere unoccupied] - and the system on this one simply failed and it continued to fly over to the US.
I would have thought that the chances of navigating a balloon with enough accuracy to get over a pretty small target are vanishingly small - plus it's not really like you can hide a big balloon and I'm sure that the US had been tracking it for a long time.
BUT if it really was a rogue balloon then why didn't China just say 'Oops, our bad.... thanks for dealing with it'.
I see the Chinese are remaining seriously committed to their narrative – according to the State Council the head of the Chinese Meteorological Administration, a senior communist party member and expert in atmospheric physics, has been sacked
I'm of the opinion that the balloon was just a meteorological instrument blown off course, and various US media and political elements jumped on it to progress their pro-US, anti-China agenda
Think this is real?
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I’m of the opinion that the balloon was just a meteorological instrument blown off course, and various US media and political elements jumped on it to progress their pro-US, anti-China agenda
If that was the case, China would have warned that there was a rogue balloon on the loose. Also, given that this has happened multiple times, you would expect that China would have withdrawn the balloons from service until they fixed the reliability problems.
I’m of the opinion that the balloon was just a meteorological instrument blown off course, and various US media and political elements jumped on it to progress their pro-US, anti-China agenda
Then they need to thank the yanks for safely disposing of it for them.
<span style="font-family: Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, 'Noto Sans', sans-serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', 'Apple Color Emoji', 'Segoe UI Emoji', 'Segoe UI Symbol', 'Noto Color Emoji'; font-size: 16px; background-color: #eeeeee;">Think this is real?</span>
It's a good photo if it is! I wonder what it says?
I think this lot might be a touch too excited by it all
https://twitter.com/erick_fost/status/1622102141937614848?t=6lT6PJWi6ZIph966l9C9mw&s=19
I think this lot might be a touch too excited by it all
https://twitter.com/erick_fost/status/1622102141937614848?t=6lT6PJWi6ZIph966l9C9mw&s=19
It says 'Communist Party'. And also most likely a fake
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1622623310873006080?t=NcFDNxANgmGWUG8gQyOa6w&s=19
No doubt they’ll add a few of their own so it could not be mistaken for anything other than a spy balloon.
And also most likely a fake
It could well be, but I cant see anything about Arnaud that would put him in a position to know.
CNN have this, is that for rows on panels at either end?
In a way, id kinda expected some amateur astronomers to have some good photos.
Meanwhile...
Russia us getting in on the act but sanctions are biting.
However Russia continues to show it's resolve in defeating western imperialism and the left wing military-industrial complex!
Manufactured with bin bags and a brave patriot doing the spying with a Kodak Instamatic.
I think the photo is real but the writing has been photo shopped
US has started hiding planes directly under other planes to avoid prying Chinese eyes.
That’s a trick they learned from us years ago during one of the Red Flag manoeuvres out in the Nevada desert. We sent a Vulcan in low from Canada, keeping below the radar. Eventually it got picked up, and the Americans were chuffed to bits, until the Vulcan peeled away to reveal three Buccaneers hiding underneath it, which nailed the ‘target’, to the stunned amazement of the Americans.
I think this lot might be a touch too excited by it all
There may have been some drinking involved…
The weather balloon thing is just a fig of plausible deniability. Countries spy on each other, that's normal. They all officially pretend they don't and they all usually pretend they accept other countries' explanations until someone pushes things too far. For example, the U2 flights over the USSR were explained as weather flights gone astray. The Russians did not believe that for a second, but there was nothing they could do until they shot one down and captured the pilot. Once that happened, the plausible deniability was lost and the U.S. had to admit that they were spy planes. The U.S. has decided to push this in order to embarrass China. They've known for years that these were spy balloons but chose to keep quiet about it. Now they've decided that China has been pushing too much and need to be sent a warning to ease up a bit. China isn't used to being in this position and they're struggling badly to come up with a response.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1622764773438791682
I really like Mark Hertling, always abke to give a rational perspective
Looks like the US were spying on the spy balloon with two U2s
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-2-spy-planes-snooped-on-chinese-surveillance-balloon
I would have thought that the chances of navigating a balloon with enough accuracy to get over a pretty small target are vanishingly small
You'd be surprised. Balloons are surprisingly navigable with knowledge of the winds (and upper winds are extremely well known).
Smaller scale but I've been a passenger in a hot air balloon where the pilot flew it in a circuit and then landed it in its own trailer.
I wonder if the reason they took so long to shoot it down was because they were deciding how to do so - I doubt they wanted to send up an F22 using the latest and greatest weapon+radar given the likelihood of the balloon recording all that data and sending it home. I assume they probably used the minimum necessary, and waited for a moment when the balloon had the least chance of successfully sending the data back.
What can a balloon do that satellites can’t?
assuming that it is what the say it is:
Much much much much cheaper and easier.
You or I could put something like a weather ballon together from bits from a hardware store, currys and amazon. Load it into car or van and deploy it easily and quietly. it probably only costs a few thousand $, rather than however many million a sattelite costs.
not sure how much bigger this one is.
They wont be expecting to get it back, its simple enough to have it sending its data back to a reciever over a mobile phone data signal.
Not as suceptible to cloud cover as a satellite, in as much as you can choose when you release it and it travels much lower.
much higher resolution imagery, assuming thats what its doing.
cool hobbyist project really.
The only downside is that its massively obvious.
Think this is real?
Looks like a new delivery system for the ISS to avoid relying on the Ruskies.
I wonder if the reason they took so long to shoot it down was because they were deciding how to do so – I doubt they wanted to send up an F22 using the latest and greatest weapon+radar given the likelihood of the balloon recording all that data and sending it home. I assume they probably used the minimum necessary, and waited for a moment when the balloon had the least chance of successfully sending the data back.
The AIM 9X is one of the oldest air to air missiles, they probably used it as it was almost lifex so fire it or burn it. The balloon was probably sending data back in real time as well, bit pointless sending it up if you have to recall it to get the data.
The AIM 9X is one of the oldest air to air missiles
That's a bit like saying the Toyota Corolla was designed in the 1960s. The first models were introduced decades ago, but the newest versions will have pretty much zero in common apart from the general dimensions. Thing is though, it's a heat-seeking missile so the aircraft does not have to use radar, which the Chinese may have wanted to record and analyze. The aircraft could just use passive sensors to locate the target and fire the missile.
The balloon was probably sending data back in real time as well, bit pointless sending it up if you have to recall it to get the data.
Not necessarily: It could be caching the data and waiting for a satellite to pass overhead to retransmit, for example. Or fly over a conveniently placed "trawler" mid-Atlantic.
That’s a bit like saying the Toyota Corolla was designed in the 1960s. The first models were introduced decades ago, but the newest versions will have pretty much zero in common apart from the general dimensions. Thing is though, it’s a heat-seeking missile so the aircraft does not have to use radar, which the Chinese may have wanted to record and analyze. The aircraft could just use passive sensors to locate the target and fire the missile.
They don't change that much, upgrades on this tend to be for more complex targets than a balloon.
Right, here you go, a run-down of the target acquisition and a recording and transcription of the communications between all the parties involved. This might clarify a few things.
Further to my last post, here’s an update about the actual recovery mission:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/our-first-look-chinese-spy-balloon-debris-being-recovered. To give some context as to the lack of desire to bring it down over America, this quote might give a clue…
"So the balloon assessment was up to 200 feet tall for the actual balloon. The payload itself, I would categorize that as a jet airliner type of size, maybe a regional jet such as a [Embraer] ERJ or something like that," VanHerck explained. "Probably weighed in excess of a couple thousand pounds."
How big, exactly? 😳
.
I think the OP deserves credit for getting this right.
https://twitter.com/CalumDouglas1/status/1623310879285551105
Not necessarily. Apparently there were 3 Chinese spy balloons that went undetected during Donald Trump's presidency.
I say "apparently" because no one actually saw them. They are guessing that is what probably happened. Which for a lot of people is enough evidence.
Beeb reporting another one shot down on Canadian/US border.😁
Covid, War, Cost of Living Crisis, Strikes, NHS in crisis - and ruddy aliens now - well they can sod right off!!
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Covid, War, Cost of Living Crisis, Strikes, NHS in crisis – and ruddy aliens now – well they can sod right off!!
I have come to think that The Last Of Us is simply a training video for what comes next.😁
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^^ I'm not cleaning up that sh*t.😂
Beeb reporting another one shot down on Canadian/US border
Four in total at the moment (3 in the US and 1 in Canada).
Its definitely not the time to try out that science experiment using balloons.
How many random unknown location balloons will it take to bring air flight to a standstill?
Covid, War, Cost of Living Crisis, Strikes, NHS in crisis – and ruddy aliens now
Worst Billy Joel song ever.
The 'Mericans authorities are 'not ruling out that it might be Aliens', what an unusual thing to say given their history with nut jobs.
It's a common misconception to think that when the Aliens arrive that they will be roughly the same scale as us. Atleast if their attack vessels are only the size of a Ford Anglia then they're likely to only be a few centimetres tall or so... and their ray-guns will prove only a minor irritation rather than an existential event.
I guess we need to just wait to check out the mothership... unimpressed so far, crafts need more flamboyant flashing lights or a really big horn or something.
Wait for the probing to begin.....
It’s a common misconception to think that when the Aliens arrive that they will be roughly the same scale as us.
...perhaps they have a shrink ray! 🙂 🤔
I can only assume that these are missing Evri parcels. If the US recovers Shimano brake pads from the wreckage, they're mine.
Was it Sam Smith on his home from th e brits?
One big gust of wind....... And Away
It’s a common misconception to think that when the Aliens arrive that they will be roughly the same scale as us. Atleast if their attack vessels are only the size of a Ford Anglia then they’re likely to only be a few centimetres tall or so… and their ray-guns will prove only a minor irritation rather than an existential event.
Scorpion venom can kill a human and scorpions are only about the same size as your aliens. Imagine if scorpions could build a ray gun. 😀
Scorpion venom can kill a human and scorpions are only about the same size as your aliens.
Don’t forget that Gremlins were only little. I’d personally not be shooting these things down over water just in case.
I guess it was just a matter of time before those crafty Chinese had a pop at spying on us:
Mr Sunak said: “I want people to know that we will do whatever it takes to keep the country safe.
Well I for one will sleep happier and more relaxed tonight after hearing those reassuring words.
I can only assume that these are missing Evri parcels. If the US recovers Shimano brake pads from the wreckage, they’re mine.
I have three outstanding Evri parcels, with bottles of whisky in, they’re definitely mine!
Actually, they’re probably back with Masters of Malt, after they sent me replacements.
The Chinese are now claiming that the Americans are guilty of the same thing, sending surveillance balloons over China. Of course, they’re not supplying any proof.
Personally, I think it’s complete bollocks; the wind currents simply don’t allow for balloons to travel from America over China, even the jet-stream is west to east, unless they’re literally traveling right around the globe.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64644845
It turns out that the three UFOs that the US blasted out of the sky were "benign". Probably - they can't be sure because they can't find any bits of whatever it was that they destroyed.
"The U.S. Airforce shot your science project out of the sky. That's the absolute worst excuse I've ever heard," said the science teacher. "You all get an F. None of you will be allowed to graduate. Say goodbye to your dreams of MIT."
The Chinese are now claiming that the Americans are guilty of the same thing, sending surveillance balloons over China. Of course, they’re not supplying any proof.
Personally, I think it’s complete bollocks; the wind currents simply don’t allow for balloons to travel from America over China,
Who said they were launched from the US though?
Pretty sure the US has a Navy
Apart from the issue of falling debris I think the whole spy balloon issue is over-inflated... It will generate a bit more cash for defence companies to develop cheaper/better methods of destroying/capturing them but I can't see if gives the operating country significant new capability. There's been spy satellites floating above for decades, OK they're a bit more expensive but any country that cares about it's military secrets already takes precautions.
There's a risk that balloon shooting-downs escalate to spy satellite shooting-downs but I think any country that operates spy satellites wants to avoid that as nobody wins in that scenario (at least I'm pretty the US, China and Russia all have anti-satellite weapons)
I think there are treaties on the non-militarization of space. You're not supposed to shoot down satellites. As I understand it, there's a no-man's land between the altitudes of normal aircraft (where aviation rules apply) and space, and there aren't well-defined rules about what you can do there. However, a country can shoot down an aircraft in its own airspace that ignores air-traffic control instructions. China can't really complain about the U.S. shooting down a "weather balloon" that China says was lost but they didn't think to warn about.
It's standard policy for China, Russia, etc. to respond to criticism by claiming that the U.S. does the same thing. Unless they actually show some hard evidence, this should be treated as a fabrication made just to deflect criticism. If the U.S. really had been flying spy balloons over China, China would have shot them down and shown off the wreckage, they absolutely would not have just sat back and said nothing.
Thought I’d resurrect this thread after a rumoured photo has been confirmed and published by the American DoD - it’s a selfie taken by the pilot of a U2 Dragon Lady of the balloon, with the shadow of his aircraft across the balloon!
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a43027034/u2-pilot-selfie-chinese-spy-balloon/
While there was real practical value in having a spy plane snap close-up pictures of the balloon, the photo also distills America’s vast technological aerospace advantage over China into a single image.
So why was the pilot taking selfies? It doesn't suggest that "real practical value" was the primary motive.
Update: The Pentagon admitted the photograph is real and has provided a newer, higher resolution photo, seen below.
How about high resolution closeup photos of the debris which they claim to have retrieved?
So why was the pilot taking selfies? It doesn’t suggest that “real practical value” was the primary motive.
Why not? The U2 was there as an observer, it’s a surveillance aircraft, not an armed attack aircraft, the pilot is quite capable of taking some photos of his own, it’s not uncommon.
How about high resolution closeup photos of the debris which they claim to have retrieved?
You’re kidding, right? Photos have been released of the retrieval of the balloon, you don’t honestly believe that the US Defence Department or any of the security agencies will release any photos of such a valuable piece of Chinese hardware, do you?
Or maybe you do, in which case, you’re completely delusional.
So why was the pilot taking selfies? It doesn’t suggest that “real practical value” was the primary motive.
The U2 can carry a range of different sensor packages. It would have been recording the electromagnetic emissions of the balloon to try and figure out what sensors it was carrying and what information it was sending back to China. That would have been the primary mission. The pilot's selfie would have been him just trying to get a cool looking photo when he got the chance. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.