Chinese surveillance balloon - why?

What can a balloon do that satellites can’t?

Blend in at parties?

That's no balloon, that's a space station

I guess one advantage of a balloon is that, compared to a satellite, it's fairly stationary, so can observe the same target continuously. Plus the effect it has on the population, 'someone's watching us'.

Much cheaper too.

Not the first time balloons have been used against the US mainland.  Though for bombing rather than surveillance last time.

Domestic propaganda?

Pure speculation here. They may give plausible deniability. They could be made with standard commercial components so the Chinese government can just deny it's theirs. They might also be testing air defense systems - see how long it takes for aircraft to scramble and check it out, monitor and record the radar and other electronic signals, etc. This sort of thing has been going on for many decades, I don't really see it as a major development.

Bigger question is, why did the U.S. publicly announce it now when it has been going on for a while? They are openly blaming China so they are making a diplomatic point that they aren't going to just ignore it like they have done in the past. If China denies it, then the situation is that the U.S. is publicly calling China a liar. If China doesn't deny it, then that's going to be seen as an admission of guilt. Normally countries don't like to put other countries on the spot like that because they all spy on each other and don't want to turn every incident into a diplomatic crisis.

Anyone who has watched "Pirates...in an Adventure with Scientists" will know that balloons are great for looking down Victorian ladies tops.

Silly question but, How do they know its from China?

What route did it take to get there?

Was it tracked all the way etc?

Altitude and timing. At a MUCH lower altitude, the image resolution is far superior. The US knows the position and orbital track of every satellite which passes over its territory. They will schedule secretive tasks accordingly.

And, unbelievably, they are tricky to shoot down.
Fighters weapons are designed for aircraft that are moving, so get a bit baffled by something virtually stationary.

Tricky to shoot down, but given how slowly they move and the fact it's over the continental US it's not like they're under any time pressure.

Forgive my ignorance but how would the Chinese know where the balloon would even go with any degree of accuracy?

Or would they just have collected intel on Greenland instead if it floated over there?

And, unbelievably, they are tricky to shoot down.

Big pointy stick on a helicopter.

Just another reminder that from a political perspective the Chinese state is little more advanced than North Korea.

If you wanted to take it down then I should think you could target the envelope relatively easily with a laser built from off-the-shelf components.

How do they know its from China?

Everything's from China now, have you never checked the label on stuff you've bought in the last 20 years?

If you wanted to take it down then I should think you could target the envelope relatively easily with a laser built from off-the-shelf components.

awaits picture of midwest redneck with a surveillance balloon draped over the bonnet of a pickup with a homemade laser cannon in the flatbed...

Are they sure it hasn't just escaped from a kid's party?

awaits picture of midwest redneck with a surveillance balloon draped over the bonnet of a pickup with a homemade laser cannon in the flatbed…

I think you’ll find that real experts fasten their lasers to sharks.

Why would China use a spy balloon when it has satellites?

Just another reminder that from a political perspective the Chinese state is little more advanced than North Korea.

This is completely wrong. Only the French come close to the kind of long range asymmetric planning you see from the Chinese.

Determining how, and how easily, the US monitors and then shoots down a slow moving target at high altitude which must have minimal heat signature; is probably the balloon's intended final mission.

Determining how, and how easily, the US monitors and then shoots down a slow moving target at high altitude which must have minimal heat signature; is probably the balloon’s intended final mission.

When I was a boy growing up, I used to have a neighbour Mr Kerr the grumpy old bugger. He used to gleefully Burst any balls with his garden fork.

So - just find a still living version of Mr Kerr then set him to the task. I dare say it'll be completed before Antiques roadshow comes on

Forgive my ignorance but how would the Chinese know where the balloon would even go with any degree of accuracy?

I was wondering the same, because the article I read about it, (might have been Sky news, Sky news! 🤣) definitely implied some kind of directional control.

Big pointy stick on a helicopter.

I know you were being facetious, but helicopters have a surprisingly low operational ceiling. Google suggests 10,400 feet for hovering, which ain't much for a rescue helicopter in high mountains, Everest base camp for example is at 17,500 feet.

Going back to @Duggan 's question, how would chinese or anyone else know where it's going to end up?
Are they steerable, or do they just drift around?

It was perhaps intended to be used to monitor chinese citizens in China, but blew off course. That's my guess.

Surely they have a massive expanse of 'empty' land in Montana that would allow them to have a few goes at doing something - are they not playing about with lasers? If so, can they not fire it to pierce the balloon and either it descends rather than just falls? Or burst it completely and let the kit plummet. I'm guessing the debris would be able to be salvaged enough to work out where things are being sent.

Definitely a good way to have a slow moving solution to get real high definition shots of the land and also much harder to shoot down due to the operating height...unsure you could even get a plane to fly at it's operating ceiling and then machine gun at it...the bullets that miss are going to fall a fair distance and likely cause a fair amount of damage when they hit whatever they hit.

I know you were being facetious, but helicopters have a surprisingly low operational ceiling. Google suggests 10,400 feet for hovering, which ain’t much for a rescue helicopter in high mountains, Everest base camp for example is at 17,500 feet.

Yeah, but that's hovering. I'm not saying it is easy, but you can go up higher with a helo. MI-8 can fly slow at 4000m and people have jumped from helicopters _over_ Everest and landed at basecamp. Maybe still not high enough for someone armed with a long pointy stick to poke a balloon, but close.

Maybe they need another balloon and some people throwing darts at the first one from above.

Hmmm, what if they miss? Ok, darts with small parachutes. Lawn darts.

Blend in at parties?

I'm sorry but this deserves more recognition.

Mars helicopter with a long pointy stick

Mars helicopter with a long pointy stick

That's a really long stick to get here from Mars.

Blend in at parties?

Maybe it escaped from one on Chinese New year.

Just need the tip of the spear.

Are they steerable, or do they just drift around?

They are somewhat steerable. At different heights you have winds going different directions so if you can model the different heights/winds you can use that to steer them.
If you look up project loon there are some reports about it.
The figuring out what the winds are doing though is apparently pretty hard.
Guess it depends on how accurate it needs to be though.
One bonus if you are floating it over someone elses country at that height there is bound to be something slightly interesting whatever way you go.

Just need the tip of the spear

We were all laughing yesterday....makes you think.

Just send a professional darts player up in a hot air balloon to take it out. How do they know it’s from China and not from this guy? He looks like he may have just lost his favourite balloon

Weather balloon? Loads of these launched all the time. I read Biden wanted it shot down but the problem is debris.

Ok. So what are they looking to divert attention from ? Just a giant squirrel innit?

If you need an example of how hard it is to make a science out of balloon observation you only need to look at Google/Alphabet and Loom.

I’m 100% certain the US could both detect and kill the balloon if required (I have some experience with high power atmospheric penetrating lasers) but so long as they’re aware, they can simply hide anything it would see and not reveal any capability to shoot it down.

I have some experience with high power atmospheric penetrating lasers

Excellent!

I have some experience with high power atmospheric penetrating lasers

What about sharks?

Water does limit the range, but sure, why not?. How hard can it be?

China claims it is a wayward weather balloon...that clears it all up nicely then.

Or burst it completely and let the kit plummet. I’m guessing the debris would be able to be salvaged enough to work out where things are being sent.

they don’t know what’s in it or what it will do when it hits the ground.

I guess one advantage of a balloon is that, compared to a satellite, it’s fairly stationary, so can observe the same target continuously.

satellites can stay in one place, too. it’s called a geostationary orbit.

they don’t know what’s in it or what it will do when it hits the ground.

I'm guessing that it's Phileas Fogg.

What an ingenious thing for them to do. Cheap as chips, as in your face as you can get, and almost a waste of time to shoot down. In fact would a missile just pass straight through it?

I imagine it will have some form of thrust system on it ?

satellites can stay in one place, too. it’s called a geostationary orbit

though for all i know this may mean that it stays still while the earth rotates. i don’t know anything about satellites.

I’m guessing that it’s Phileas Fogg.

i’m picturing a skeleton dressed as a victorian gentleman. this would be a pretty fun ruse.

I hope they burst it and it just has a massive waving cat inside it. Epic troll from China

satellites can stay in one place, too. it’s called a geostationary orbit.

which is achieved by setting the distance from earth to be a specific figure, so that its orbit time is equal to one day - and therefore its always above one point.

This distance is a long way further out than other satellites, and this obviously only works over the equator.

Geostationary and geosynchronous are matched orbit rotation satellites. The altitude is around 36k km. The closer you get to the planet the faster you have to go to maintain orbit. You can see why something at 100km altitude could provide better images than even a LEO satellite at 2000km.

EDIT - Geostationary is specific to equatorial orbits, geosynchronous is the same altitude, but with varying inclination.

@Daffy appears to be yet another expert breaking cover on STW :0)

@Daffy appears to be yet another expert breaking cover on STW :0)

He might well be or he might just subscribe to Sky At Night mag. 😀

Geostationary satellites are not that useful for spying though, unless what you want to film happens to be sat directly underneath - you're a long way away (compared to MEO or LEO) and the angle gets more acute the further you want to focus away from the equator.

Geostationary is specific to equatorial orbits, geosynchronous is the same altitude, but with varying inclination.

So what is the one where they follow the special forces operatives on their missions and display the live video footage in the White House situation room?

thanks for the info. interesting stuff

I guess one advantage of a balloon is that, compared to a satellite, it’s fairly stationary, so can observe the same target continuously.

Geosynchronous satellites are, in effect, stationary over a point on earth.

So what is the one where they follow the special forces operatives on their missions and display the live video footage in the White House situation room?

You can do that with Geostationary, just need a pretty decent power source for the uplink, eg relay via a Helicopter / Humvee with a big dish on it...

So what is the one where they follow the special forces operatives on their missions and display the live video footage in the White House situation room?

Almost certainly drones.

That's blown it, Antony Blinken's visit to China is now up in the air due to the violation of US airspace

The US Naval Institute shared a story today about the USS New York attempting to shoot a Japanese balloon weapon down in 1945. The navigator eventually realised that they were shooting at Venus

There was also the battle of Los Angeles.
Which was probably started by the sighting of a weather balloon and then turned into a free for all.

Can’t they dig out the kit from Reagan’s star wars programme? It must be just lying somewhere in a storage facility just waiting for a moment such as this

Obviously you’d also need a big net to catch the debris ..

I would think a grappling hook thrown from a C130 or similar could snag it, then just tow it to where ever you want to land it.

To some extent I'd assume shooting it down would be a bit pointless, whatever intelligence it's already gathered will probably have been beamed back to China already, and you'd maybe expect the Chinese to set any super sensitive components to self destruct below a certain altitude just to be sure.

I'm guessing they'll pop it once it drifts out over the ocean and maybe try to track and recover it using the navy, it might come down more intact that way, rather than sending it tumbling into some trees or a logger's cabin to get all smashed up in Montana...

They might just be probing to see what response the Americans give to something like this, any intelligence gathered would just be a secondary goal...

The US will have briefed on this as it's been sighted by so many Americans and discussed online, if they wanted to shoot it down they could pretty easily, send up an F22 and it'll do the job, but as others say, probably pointless now, they've probably been tracking it, same as a satellite to make sure whatever it's got in its field of view is secured prior to it arriving oversight.

So what is the one where they follow the special forces operatives on their missions and display the live video footage in the White House situation room?

Those would be the KH-10 and KH-11 Kennen satellites. Essentially a Hubble space telescope pointing at the earth and at a lower altitude of around 300-400km.

Missions are often planned for when one of the satellites will be overhead. KH-11s can be restasked - moved to other orbital tracks, but it’s costly and a limited resource now the shuttle is out of service.

KH-11s we’re designed around the shuttle in the same way the KH-10s actually sized the shuttle.

KH-11 images are very very rarely released - I think only Trump has done so. Their capabilities are…incredible.

To some extent I’d assume shooting it down would be a bit pointless, whatever intelligence it’s already gathered will probably have been beamed back to China already

Especially if it helps to confirm China's claim that it is civilian airship used for meteorological research which deviated from its route because of bad weather.

Why would the Chinese choose to leave it where it is if it has already completed its intelligence gathering? And why would the US not attempt to shoot it down anyway if it represented a serious threat?

And I don't understand how the United States feel they can justify their alleged outrage over the incident. At 60,000 feet it is apparently well above anything that would interfere with US airspace, and whilst I understand that the US doesn't like to be spied on I don't see how doing it from a satellite 200 miles up is somehow more morally justified and not a problem.

I can't imagine that this more than a one of incident, it is clearly not spying at its stealthiest. Presumably nothing like this will happen again anytime soon, so just a lot of fuss for political capital no doubt.

LOL! Problem with USA is that they can do that to others but not others to them.

USA is repeating the same the history of past empire building but in more in tune with time and technology. Story line is the same. A modern form of imperialism in the name of saving the world (didn't we hear that before?). Never can human being learned no matter how they tried.

The moment I see that news, the song "Eye In The Sky" by Alan Parsons Project comes to mind. LOL! (check the lyrics out) Spooky innit.

When the real war starts they will all fight blind (spy satellite), deaf (communication) and mute (infrastructure).

I really hope I live to see the destruction of the world with a cup of coffee and smoking my cigarette while leaving my shadow behind on the wall (the shadow of incineration) when the bright light flash in the sky.

Some reasons whyy this isn't such a bad way to spy on your foes:

1. Cheap
2. Steerable by varying the height to move with wind at differing atmospheric layers.
3. Too high to be shot down, much higher than fighters can reach, and air-to-air missiles are designed to shoot down other aircraft at similar heights, not something half way to space.
4. Ground based weaponry, guns, couldn't hit it, and surface to air missiles don't have the altitude, or targeting capability.
5. Much better resolution images with cheaper sensors than satellite deployed kit.
6. Long loiter time.
7. Difficult to spot with naked eye, yes we have been shown photos, but from very very good cameras no doubt.
8. Difficult to detect with air search radar, these are looking for big chunks of metal, not a plastic bag of gas, and a small bundle of electronics.
9. Deniability, could be fitted with off the shelf components that can do the job.

... I could go on.

Another theory, and I'm guessing here:
This has been going on for a long time, and the Americans know this. They have spotted this one at a much lower altitude than previously, thereby indicating that it's failing.
The US is worried it'll land in someone's backyard and be recognisable as a Chinese spying device. That will alarm all the rednecks, who will be kick up a storm about how the Democrats can't even keep them safe from balloons.
So, by acting all alarmed and worried it'll be played as the first time the Chinese have done this type of intelligence gathering.

Some reasons whyy this isn’t such a bad way to spy on your foes:

They are up against the Chinese who are not their like minded foes.

They can read and learn as much Sun Tze as possible but he is Not the greatest of the military strategies in his time. He might be victorious in many battles and wars but certainly not the greatest.

Another theory, and I’m guessing here:

My guess is that the Chinese deliberately let them spot it just to send a message they don't need high tech weapons.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64524105

shot down

One down - which still leaves another reported to be somewhere over the Brazilian coast.

It's reportedly been shot down over the Atlantic on the US east coat, which is exactly where I'd have shot it down if I wanted to retrieve the payload relatively intact...

I think this might have given the location away

Forgive my ignorance but how would the Chinese know where the balloon would even go with any degree of accuracy?

I was wondering that, but a news item about it pointed out that it was steerable.

There are American Idiots<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">™ © ® who are seriously considering shooting the bloody thing down with AR15’s. It’s being pointed out that a) it’s at 60,000ft, they’ve no chance of hitting it, and b) what goes up must come down. Somewhere.</span>

That altitude precludes most lasers, it’s only the latest directed energy weapons that might have the ability to target it at that altitude, and most of those are ship-mounted. Land-based lasers aren’t, AFAIK, able to elevate to vertical, they’re intended to target incoming missiles and drones, and low-flying aircraft.

There was a military person on CNN explaining the dangers of shooting it down over land due to its size and the falling debris causing damage or harm, apparently, it was the size of 3 buses. He also stated it wouldn't gather any more information than current Chinese spy satellites over these areas.

I know of at least one “reported” instance of something at a MUCH higher altitude being targeted by a ground based laser.

Lasers on the ground repeatedly target receivers on the moon. Surprisingly, these are remarkably low powered. A mere 250W laser can melt titanium at short distances and do so in milliseconds. A 7kW laser can melt though 10mm of steel at a distance of 10s of meters. We have both 30 and 60kW lasers available at work, these are commercially available.

I can transmit enough power via an ingested laser delivery system to keep a small aircraft in flight indefinitely and can do so at over 100km away and at sea level.

Modern lasers have tremendous power and when coupled to different types of lasers either in parallel on concentricity have almost unbelievable capabilities. Modern electronics and multi-prism targeting and focussing systems give amazing accuracy.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s no Death Star, but against a thin skinned target…

3. Too high to be shot down, much higher than fighters can reach, and air-to-air missiles are designed to shoot down other aircraft at similar heights, not something half way to space.

www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64524105.amp

You were saying?

3. Too high to be shot down, much higher than fighters can reach, and air-to-air missiles are designed to shoot down other aircraft at similar heights, not something half way to space.

As I understand it, missiles can exchange range and launch speed for altitude. If they are launched from 60,000 feet at Mach 2.5 and aimed at a low-flying target, they will have a lot of energy and longer range. If they are launched from a helicopter at ground level against a fast high-flying target, the range will be much shorter because they have to climb to altitude and accelerate to high speed to catch the target. From that news story, the missile was launched from an F-22, which I think can easily fly at Mach 2.5 at 60,000 feet. Against a nearly stationary target, it should be able to zoom to 100,000 feet or so.

An F-22 jet fighter engaged the high-altitude balloon with one missile - an AIM-9X Sidewinder

However, the news story says it was a Sidewinder, which is heat-seeking. I'm amazed that the balloon would have enough of a heat signature to get a lock on. I would have assumed a radar guided AMRAAM would have been used.