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I'll sort of be staying up to see the results come in but watching a movie and switching over to take a looksie now and then.
Tamworth not looking as hopeful as was thought as Labour/ Libdems both saying they may have split the vote enough to let the Tories win...
If that is the case it shows a lack of big picture planning from both the opposition parties AND that tactical voting might not be the silver bullet I and many others wish it to be.
Let's see.
I have faith that voters can see what they need to do now. Still to close to call. Neither will be announced 'till tomorrow though, will they? Not fast counting seats.
Let's wait for the results but...if a split opposition vote in Tamworth has given a winning path to that loathsome cock of a tory candidate it should be the incentive for Lab & LDs to re-think their electioneering and campaigning strategies.
Anyone for tactical voting?
If that is the case it shows a lack of big picture planning from both the opposition parties AND that tactical voting might not be the silver bullet I and many others wish it to be.
Tactical voting can best work if the opposition parties agree to be tactical too. It should be the first priority of both Labour and LibDem to get this Tory shower out. They know how this can be achieved (i.e. a "pre-election coalition") but do they have the political will?
ive been really enjoying this podcast on Dories & the mid beds byelection, some proper lol moments with my headphones on
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0g8s2y3?partner=uk.co.bbc&origin=share-mobile
my predictions
Tamworth
- labour 40
tories 25
rfm + ukip 17
lib dem 7
Mid beds
-
<li style="text-align: left;">
Tories 35
Labour 30
lib dem 25
grn 3
ukip/rfm 7
There's less than 18 months to the next general election so it's not critical. I don't have any party affiliation other than a very strong "never conservative" ethos, but if there's a split vote and they get the seats back, it's almost a cautionary tale for the other parties to stop being morons and work smart.
Based on the polls, the GE should be a labour landslide, but there are still the "shy tories" to contend with.
Also, it would be nice for all of the opposition parties to get a bit of a kick to remind them not to take our votes for granted.
hmmm
https://twitter.com/willglloyd/status/1715125330619326763?t=fUQxLZavB0GLC47f7uF5qw&s=19
postal votes apparently looking good for Labour in Tamworth
the tamworth candidate who said "some out-of-work parents who cannot afford to feed their children should 'f*** off'? and subsequently said "sorry if I've offended somebody".... hmmm
Followed by:
'Obviously it is not something I would share now in today's world.
'We obviously mature and have different opinions than we do three years ago.'
🙂
And still a front runner in the election...
Tamworth not looking as hopeful as was thought as Labour/ Libdems both saying they may have split the vote enough to let the Tories win…
If that is the case it shows a lack of big picture planning from both the opposition parties AND that tactical voting might not be the silver bullet I and many others wish it to be.<br /><br />
tactical voting is good, if people do it. Splitting the vote and allowing Tory to win is an example of why you need tactical voting, not an argument against it.
I think they mean that tactical voting is needed, but if the electorate and parties don't get behind it... then we could be in big trouble come the general election.
I'm hopeful that voters know what to do now, even if those planning election strategy for the opposition parties seem not to.
As a voter... FPTP can force you to vote for your second, third or even fourth preference in order to stop yet another Tory MP being returned, and helping the numbers add up to allow yet another five years of Tory *BLANK*.
Don't split the vote. Kick them out.
Neither will be announced ’till tomorrow though, will they
Damn,I think you're are right.
Ah well, I'll still be up watching a film as my insomnia is off the scale these days.
‘We obviously mature and have different opinions than we do three years ago.’
🙂
And still a front runner in the election…
Echoing what you guys said above, if the any Tory vote is split, better to learn that lesson now than in the GE.
Unbelievable and terrifying in equal measure that he could still easily win this.
130 for Tamworth
330 for mid beds
(or maybe the other way around)
A LibDem MP at the Mid Beds count suggested that Labour had won - let's hope she's right.
Both announcements expected in the next half hour. 🤞🏻
Do note the turnout though, 65% in general election in 2019 and about 23% yesterday. It's always low in by-elections but in absolute terms it may be that the non-Conservative voters turned up and the Conservative voters abstained, rather than voters switching. Tamworth does have a history of big swings but the number of people actually switching is probably quite low and mostly people are just put off.
Indeed. But in the 57th safest Tory seat in the country, many of their past voters stayed at home unprepared to turn out to "stop Labour". This seat could well slip back to a small majority for the Tories at the general election... but many much less safe seats are now up for grabs. Even ones as "safe" as this one might be as well. Tactical voting will be needed though.
Mid Beds. soon to declare.
Two for two, the sooner an election is called the better.
It does make the current PM look like a squatter... so few people in the UK want him there. He really should call a general election. He has no mandate of his own, and very little public support, even amongst past Tory voters.
LibDems performed very well in this seat. There's an opportunity for the Tories to take this seat back if at the general election if it becomes a three way campaign. I hope they don't win it back. And I hope the LibDems can take many other seats off the Tories as well. Parties need to be careful where they focus their efforts.
I can't believe that. I'm thinking Dorres will gladly see this result as a headache for Sunak, and a catylist for the Government's already imminent demise, laying the ground for the Johnston/Rees Mogg/Anderson etc. post-truth bullshit brigade to take over the Party.
Tamworth was a drubbing, pure and simple, horrendous result for Sunak.
Mid Beds was more complex with the involvement of the Lib Dems, I was worried that they'd split the vote and that the Tories would cling onto this previously rock solid safe seat by a gnats pube.
As it was, the actual result suggests that the LD campaign managed to peel enough Tory voters off to let Labour through.
As has been the case for sometime, if Starmer wants a solid basis to govern for more than one term, a Lib Dem revival in the leafy shires is almost essential.
what did the Racist-Bigot-Reclaim, etc. parties get in each? Quick count suggests 5-10% in total
Not great for the country, great for the country if they're taking share from the tories
That's lovely to wake up to!
Sunak must be thinking, why am I going to waste another year or more of my life doing this shit and making no difference when I could be off in California?
Lots of Tory MPs in 'safe seats' are going to be causing him trouble as they see the gravy train disappearing over the horizon.
Still worried that Reform are going to pull their candidates from Labour target seats in some grubby deal, though.
Over 10,000 folk voted Tory in Tamworth yesterday.
It's described as economically "average for the UK", what is it that they're seeing that I'm not?
Or is it as simple as this is the old folks voting and they got their winter heating allowance payments (up to £600) this week and the Mail & the Express haven't yet told them they're not getting the full Triple-Lock next year?
i was shocked at the numbers that voted Tory in Tamworth
from the vox pops i saw immigration was a big issue for some
And yet they still voted for the Party that's been in Govt for 13 years which has 'created' the issue that bothers them...
Vox pops you say? Meet the good people of Tamworth:
Vox pops only pray on the more exciting people. In any town or city you will find people who are more than happy to spew sound bite toss.
Tamworth is actually not that bad a place. Although John Lewis got turned into a home bargains or something so that's progress.
I'm glad that slime trailing Tory got his arse handed to him on a plate . Maybe his wife got what she reallllyyyyh deserved after all
Vox pops only pray on the more exciting people. In any town or city you will find people who are more than happy to spew sound bite toss.
On one hand, I wouldn't have included that one particularly eye-catching interviewee because it's too easy to portray people negatively. And even he had an insight on the cost of living. On the other hand, everyone else that spoke was saying stuff that is very mainstream and uncontroversial in today's society - even if it's toss.
^^ lol, I've not seen that but I did note that both Tory candidates suddenly made a break for freedom.
Not being able to get out the fire exit does sound suitably world beating too.😁
Some interesting stuff here
BBC News - Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections 'one of worst nights any government has endured'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67166028
Is it too early to let out an enormous sigh of relief?
^^ Way to early imo, though I know what you mean. Until I wake up to hear that the Tories have lost in a GE I still think the Tories have a chance.
One big screw up by Labour that is jumped upon by the right wing press might be all it needs.
The video of the tory candidate leaving shows that he saw a bunch of others leaving and decided to follow them. His minders pwrhaps? It doesn't look like it was his initiative.
The arrogant Tamworth Tory also took about 5 minutes to get to the podium when the Returning Officer was about to announce the result leaving all the other candidates standing there looking a bit lost. When he did eventually turn up he wasn't even wearing a rosette and was disrespectful to the winning candidate by not congratulating her before trying to get out of the building as quickly as possible (for balance the losing Tory candidate in Mid Beds had the decency to congratulate the winning candidate).
Never underestimate Labour’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory. Half the party still haven’t forgiven Tony Blair for winning three elections.
And the other half that preferred opposition to governing under Corbyn so sabotaged him
Apparently the result was just because all the Tory voters stayed home according to the news dinnertime ( some Conservative lacky)
Apparently the result was just because all the Tory voters stayed home
A lot of voters treat by-elections as a chance to register a protest vote or abstain, then reappear at a general election, so this is a risk. The red wall Tories will want to keep their salaries as long as they can, so won't push to get rid of Rishi or call an early election. The way the world is, all sorts of shit could come along and bolster government support unexpectedly - Argentina! Don't you ****ing dare!
Apparently the result was just because all the Tory voters stayed home according to the news dinnertime ( some Conservative lacky)
Possibly looking at the numbers. Mid beds the labour vote dropped slightly (only by a couple of hundred) although in Tamworth it was boosted by a thousand (think its the first of the byelections where this happened for labour).
The swing was the tory vote collapsing.
It is probably better for the tories than those people switching.. Not being arsed to vote for you is better than them choosing to vote against you and I think is less likely to be repeated at the GE.
I think it is safe to assume some tories switched to Labour or the Lib dems but overall it was tories staying home. I dont think there is any good way to measure the former but the doorstep conversations are probably about as good as they get.
One problem for the tories is Reform UK nee UKIP votes almost certainly came from former tories and would have been enough to win both elections for them.
It looks like that could be a major problem for them.
Richard Tice sounded pretty chuffed with himself this morning and seemed like he was relishing the prospect of taking votes off the tories with his 'They Betrayed Brexit' narrative which I'm guessing a lot of Tory voters would happily buy into
Its ironic really, isn't it? Farage put the fear of god up Cameron which led to Brexit, and now we'll have the Tory party running scared from the latest gang of rightwing fruitloops, even after Brexit
now we’ll have the Tory party running scared from the latest gang of rightwing fruitloops, even after Brexit
It's almost as if trying to mollify the headbangers never works, not only are their ideas are unworkable but their entire following (and therefore income) is based on screaming from the sidelines, anything you give them (i.e, Brexit) will be pocketed without thanks and they'll immediately move onto the next ridiculous hobby horse to clobber you over the head about because the moment they declare they're happy the money dries up.
So long as they never have to actually run anything it's a great business model.
Apparently the result was just because all the Tory voters stayed home according to the news dinnertime ( some Conservative lacky)
Turn out was very low, so a lot of people did stay home.
anything you give them (i.e, Brexit) will be pocketed without thanks and they’ll immediately move onto the next ridiculous hobby horse to clobber you over the head about because the moment they declare they’re happy the money dries up.
You're absolutely right. I don't credit Cameron with much, but he was bang on when he referred to the Brexiteers in his party as 'people who won't take yes for an answer', which makes him repeatedly caving in to them even more unforgivable
They're just permanently angry with whichever scapegoat they've decided to blame for their own failings this week. Trying to pacify them is completely futile. Everything is somebody else's fault. They will never take any responsibility for anything, hence the latest 'Brexit Betrayal' bollocks. Perish the thought they could ever accept that it was just a. ****ing stupid idea in the first place 🙄
And the other half that preferred opposition to governing under Corbyn so sabotaged him
It was absolutely disgusting that Emily Thornberry pointed a gun at Jeremy Corbyn and forced him to present phone-in shows on Iranian state TV. Horrible that Kier Starmer threatened to drown kittens if Corbyn didn't write a rapturous foreword to a book containing mad anti-semitic rant. Repellant that Rachel Reeves hacked Corbyn's Facebook and posted comments in favour of anti-Semitic graffiti. All this to ensure Labour lost the election under Corbyn...twice...
overall it was tories staying home.
Is the Agoraphobic Tory now a thing?
Tories stayed home but Labour voters were happy to come out? Hmmmm, what could that mean? 🤔
It's a by election and won't practically change anything?
The Tories will not do this badly in a GE and some of the Tories whio stayed at home will go out to vote. If not the Tories will end up with significantly fewer than 100 seats, not going to happen
But...
These are exactly the sort of by-election victories labour we're winning in the run into 1997 election. The Tory govt has run it's course and Labour will have to monumentally balls it up not to win a large majority. The SNP struggling is a huge boost to.
Horrible that Kier Starmer threatened to drown kittens if Corbyn didn’t write a rapturous foreword to a book containing mad anti-semitic rant.
As opposed to supporting the starvation of 2 million civilians and forcing them to drink water contaminated with sewage?
As opposed to supporting the starvation of 2 million civilians and forcing them to drink water contaminated with sewage?
Can you provide a citation for that assertion. No thought not, you can read all you want into what Starmer says but it doesnt make it true. Starmer is very careful with what he says and does, unlike the Messiah Corbyn who was a complete novice when it came to media relations which whether you like it or not is a pre-requisite for a successful leader in our country.
You’re spot on there stumpy, Starmer’s already sold his soul to Murdoch, something Corbin wouldn’t have done, but hey, the means justify the ends.
Starmer’s already sold his soul to Murdoch, something Corbin wouldn’t have done,
Corbyn wouldn't sell his soul to Murdoch, this is true. But as he already sold it to the Ayatollah Khamanei, I'm not sure it's on the market any more. There are not many people in the world who are worse than Murdoch, but the leader of a murderous fundamentalist regime who killed hundreds just about pips him at the post.
Thoughts and prayers for Corbyn, who must be very worried about his "friends" in Hamas at this difficult time. Unfortunately he was unable to find a single minute in any of his public meetings with Hamas and Hezbollah to raise human rights of Palestinians and Lebanese living under their rule in Gaza and Southern Lebanon.
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-corbyn-paid-iran-press-tv-tortured-journalist-2016-6
but the leader of a murderous fundamentalist regime who killed hundreds just about pips him at the post.
I have to confess to not following this thread so I have no idea what Iran has to do with the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections, nothing I suspect.
But what I do know is that iran is a democracy, although clearly not a liberal democracy, which is obviously more than what the brutal Saudi dictatorship is.
And I also know that one former Labour Party leader has a no problem at all with the murderous Saudi feudal dictatorship.
In fact he advises them on how to do stuff. And they are extremely generous to the former Labour leader:
Tony Blair Institute continued taking money from Saudi Arabia after Khashoggi murder
Although apparently Tony Blair did suffer from "anxieties" about stuffing his pockets with Saudi money, but he did manage to overcome them, bless him.