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Rejoin could be done in a year with political will
That's my point exactly - there is no will from the electorate to go through it all again. And don't post the 'most people now are remainers' statistic AGAIN, that's not the same thing at all. You are living in fantasy land if you think this is possible. Desirable, sure, but not possible currently.
How do we get the lost growth back?
Borrow to invest, like always.
Open your eyes man and stop letting yourself be gaslit
You cheeky bugger. Just because I disagree with you does not make me stupid or ignorant. I'm very well aware of the issues, more issues than you apparently. I'm pointing out all the ones you're ignoring (as is everyone else on the forum).
I get so frustrated with this
If you can't discuss things with throwing about the insults, maybe time to step away a bit?
Rejoining the EU would not be a quick, or easy process, the UK would have to hold a referendum, then go to the EU to become a candidate and then formally go through the process, a long process, then recommended for membership.
This of course comes after all of the EU countries agree that we can apply for membership, and then have it agreed through the European Parliament, again, not a quick process.
The real fun will be how the UK joins without those opt-outs we had previously (Euro/ECB/Shengen/etc), as well as the rebate we had and our standing in the EU previously. The big question is how many EU nations would want us back, and what is the risk of us changing our minds again, what if the UK in 2035 is more right wing, can we just vote again, and leave yet again, what stops that?
That’s my point exactly – there is no will from the electorate to go through it all again.
the vast majority want to rejoin. Its perfectly possible. The only reason its not on the table for the UK is due to Starmers conversion to being a brexiteer and his constant gaslighting over it. all the so called obstacles are imaginary.
You cheeky bugger.
Apologies again
the UK would have to hold a referendum,
No it wouldn't. No more than it had to hold a referendum to trigger A50.
The only referendum was an advisory one with multiple conflicting visions of what leaving the EU meant. If there was going to be a 'proper' (ie, not advisory and with all the increased oversight that goes along with it) referendum then it should have been on whether the UK government was in a position to trigger A50.
But yes, enough politicians have said, 'not in my lifetime' often enough that the message has stuck so I doubt anyone has anything to worry about in terms of rejoining anytime soon.
People have allowed themselves to be convinced that rejoining will be a more arduous task than leaving was and for some reason seem quite happy to remain out for the rest of their lives.
**** the electorate.
They ballsed it up once - take the choice out of it.
We're not having a referendum on VAT on private school fees or winter fuel payments. No need to have one on (re)join either.
People have allowed themselves to be convinced that rejoining will be a more arduous task than leaving was
Who said that?
The only reason its not on the table for the UK is due to Starmers conversion to being a brexiteer and his constant gaslighting over it.
You honestly believe that's the *only* reason?
Who said that?
Keir Starmer said not in his lifetime. Many on here have echoed similar sentiments.
Leaving only took 4 years. Triggering A50 took less than a year.
Why is rejoining going to take so much longer?
nickc
‘settled’ and so recently
The referendum was 8 years and 5 prime ministers ago! I'm sure we now have all the evidence we need that it was a bad decision and that it's time to turn things around.
I know Starmer's terrified of the lexiteers (and Farage) but FFS man, grow a pair.
You honestly believe that’s *only* reason?
yes. Both major English parties are brexiteer parties and Starmer is constantly gaslighting over it. Here the two parties of government are pro Europe pro rejoin and thus we get a very different take on it. IIRC over 80% of the scots electorate want rejoin.
Accession would not be a long process. Thats a bit of the gaslighting.
A rejoin referendum would have a massive rejoin majority
Bruce - we haven't actually finished leaving yet. We still have not implemented the import checks legally required and are in breach of the withdrawal agreement in a number of areas
Why is rejoining going to take so much longer?
Because it's not up to the UK this time.
Leaving only took 4 years. Triggering A50 took less than a year.
I see... by "arduous" you mean take longer. I'm not sure that's the case... we're still years off having completed the process of being outside the EU... and it's already been 5 years since we first had a government declaring we would leave. Joining doesn't have to take any longer than leaving for it to be a long drawn out process. What people are saying its that we're not joining any time soon... and even if a UK government decided to join, which was never on the cards at any recent election, it would not be in charge of the timetable to join... or the nature of the deal.
Bruce – we haven’t actually finished leaving yet.
True, but if you fancy going and working in Europe for a while then I think you'll find that for all intents and purposes the UK has most definitely left the EU.
However, it does go to show that leaving is far more complex than rejoining would be. Particularly given the UK is a former member.
Where the gaslighting comes in (which many on this forum seem particularly keen on) is to use the complexity of leaving as evidence that rejoining will be equally as if not more complicated than leaving. That is simply not true.
Because it’s not up to the UK this time.
A serious point. It would need cap in hand begging but if thats what is needed thats what sould be done
Every day we are out the damage compounds. The sooner we are back in the better.
failed to find and actual benefits.
Have I missed any since?
No, I don’t think so WCA
Not quite true. I got three hundred quid VAT back on the skis I bought in Austra in February...
Elephant. Room.
Ro-Elephant-om surely?
Also, regarding rejoining.... People seem to be ignoring the big issue of whether the Europes want us back over the last X years "we" have shown ourselves collectively to be pigshit thick ignorant scum. Insell Affen as the Germans are wont to call us. The chances of if getting all 27 nations to welcome us back is zero.
you’ll find that for all intents and purposes the UK has most definitely left the EU
There's yet more cost and time to come.
Joining would have a (lower) cost and take many (but perhaps fewer) years than leaving. But it wouldn't be cost free or quick... that's fantasy. Is it worth the cost and time in my opinion, absolutely... is the UK and the British public ready to swallow that right now... I doubt it... despite it being bloody obvious we haven't gained from leaving, and would benefit long term if back in.
The real fun will be how the UK joins without those opt-outs we had previously (Euro/ECB/Shengen/etc), as well as the rebate we had and our standing in the EU previously. The big question is how many EU nations would want us back, and what is the risk of us changing our minds again, what if the UK in 2035 is more right wing, can we just vote again, and leave yet again, what stops that?
I think pragmatism would win out as our memership benefits both us and the EU, I think we can probably keep the £, but kiss goodbye to the sweet rebates we had and have to accept SM and CU, which comes bundled with FOM.
Perhaps a 'half way' option like the 'soft brexit/Norway type deal" that brexiteers were actualy sold, before being crashed out hard by the tories, might be a more realistic option to start with?
and what is the risk of us changing our minds again
I think the UK would need tighter legislation around referendums...as in they would have to be 'official' rather than advisory like we had, in which a lot of the checks and balances you would expect, around dodgy campaign funding, misinformation, a requirement for a real majority, ie. a proper majority, say 65% rather than 51% (or something) etc, simply didn't apply to an advisory referendum.
Perhaps a ‘half way’ option like the ‘soft brexit/Norway type deal” that brexiteers were actualy sold, before being crashed out hard by the tories, might be a more realistic option to start with?
In the SM & CU for the mutual benefit of all that, but no longer a leading power in the EU proper, is the most likely the best long term relationship we can hope for. I can't see any future French government wanting the UK as an equal in Europe again.
Unless a government calls Brexit out for what it was/is, we’re stuck with it.
And the problem here is twofold, IMHO.
Firstly, Labour won the election not on their own merits but because the Tories were so mind-bogglingly shit. Their balance of power is on a knife-edge and they would have to be astonishingly myopic not to realise this. Their number one goal right now will be to secure control ahead of the next GE and the absolute last thing they're going to be going if they have any brains at all is anything likely to be controversial/divisive amongst its electorate.
Whilst I concede that I have been historically terrible at predicting the future, I fully expect Labour to tread water for a few years until the dust settles. They don't have to be great, they just have to not do anything stupid.
Secondly, outside of argumentative threads on cycling forums, the public has reached Brexit Fatigue as Mols suggests. The Remainers have scored a bit of an own goal here in so far as, thanks to various fudges, deadline extensions and outright cheats along with a wholesale Ctrl-C Ctrl-V of EU legislation into English Law, the sky has thus far failed to fall in as widely predicted. As far as the great unwashed is concerned, brexit "got done" and regardless of political viewpoint there is little appetite from most people to reopen Pandora's Brexit again. People are, not to put too fine a point on it, sick to ****ing death of hearing about it.
the UK would have to hold a referendum
No it wouldn't. The UK would have to have politicians who did the job they're paid to do. Which of course is even less likely.
Why is rejoining going to take so much longer?
I dunno, I reckon I could knock a garage down a lot faster than I could build one. Doubly so if the neighbours were of the mind that I could stick my garage up my arse and were demanding to see whether I had planning permission.
is the UK and the British public ready to swallow that right now
The vast majority want to rejoin. 70% of labour voters, 80% of the scots electorate, significant majority UK wide
the public has reached Brexit Fatigue
only in some circles / areas and only because they are constantly being fed lies about it. This simply does not apply here IMO because we have pro europe parties in power
The failure of brexit and the need to rejoin comes up frequently in conversation here - perhaps also in part because the damage caused is so obvious here
The vast majority want to rejoin. 70% of labour voters, 80% of the scots electorate, significant majority UK wide
I'm sure you've told us that before at some point ?
Starmers conversion to being a brexiteer
Utter rubbish, he's a pragmatist who realises that re-joining the EU is one of the many things on the UK's 'To Do List' but before he can even start the process he's to fix loads of other far more important (and structural) issues.
Put it another way, Scotland has a better chance of joining the EU as an independent country than the UK has of been let back in - that's how big the 'ask' is.
But thanks for reminding me of my underlying hatred of those who peddled Brexit and the gullible idiots that voted for it; and don't get me started on the sheer contempt I have for folk that still support it.
I’m sure you’ve told us that before at some point ?
correct - and I will keep on reminding folk when they say there is no appetite for rejoin -
Utter rubbish, he’s a pragmatist who realises that re-joining the EU is one of the many things on the UK’s ‘To Do List’ but before he can even start the process he’s to fix loads of other far more important (and structural) issues.
What else do you call someone who supports brexit and continually lies about it? " make the most of the opportunities" FFS We all know there are none
Fixing those other issues without rejoining is like trying to climb a tree with your hands tied behind your back. that 22 billion hole in finances? the benefirt from rejoin is hugely larger than that and the losses from brexit are larger than that
**** the electorate.
You know how democracy works, don't you?
the vast majority want to rejoin.
It's not as clear cut as you think:
And there's a massive difference between wanting to rejoin in principle and wanting to kick off another protracted political crisis. Do you think that it would all go smoothly? I think you are massively overlooking the subtle but profound impacts of making a snap unilateral decision here.
I will keep on reminding folk when they say there is no appetite for rejoin
That's not what I said.
What else do you call someone who supports brexit and continually lies about it?
You are being incredibly dense on this point. I am at work today. Does that mean I want to be at work? **** no, it's a lovely day and I want to be out on my bike. But for pragmatic reasons I know I need to work. So whilst I don't want to work, I also don't want to lose my job, so I am choosing to work. I trying as hard as I can to get a promotion and a raise, even though I don't want to be here. I don't want to work, but I also want to work at the same time. Do you get my point?
and I will keep on reminding folk when they say there is no appetite for rejoin
Possibly you should reflect on how well the patented TJ 'Batter them into submission' approach has worked for you in the past.
We are all well aware of what the polls have been saying for a while now. There are very good reasons for thinking that those polls would not translate into a landslide victory in a referendum, particularly since any future vote would be likely to be more professionally run, requiring at least a majority of those entitled to vote, and maybe also a greater than 50% vote share. That is how things work in many countries that use referendums more frequently.
It's a shame that teamhurtmore and jambalaya are no longer with us to provide their views on how things have gone, and why.
As to rejoining- we'll never get the opt-outs back, and there's a couple of dealbreakers in there (imo) - adoption of euro, and 'ever closer union'. Can't see many of the British public being happy with having to pick up either of those, irrespective of location on the leave/remain scale.
Which you then smuggled back into the UK?
Yep. Having seen all these documentaries about drugs mules I thought it would be a simple case of wrapping them in sellophane and shoving them up ....
Slashed myself to ribbons I tell you ...
Might be worth re-visiting this article from 6 yrs ago...
So by the time we as a nation wish to rejoin - it might not be worth it..
(that last sentence was not typed with a straight face)
I reckon that once we realise, this autumn, thanks to biometric controls, that getting into Europe for business and vacations has become even more arduous than it currently is - i reckon folks might want to do the EFTA thing as a minimum. And when they realise the only way that Labour can fix the finances and that the only way we can rebuild a civic society that works, is with tax rises cos growth is too difficult outside the EU, then the EU becomes a deal that we can't afford not to take. I'm hoping that the number of questions in HoC already about fixing Brexit suggests that Starmer will have to confront this sooner than we think
Can’t see many of the British public being happy with having to pick up either of those, irrespective of location on the leave/remain scale.
the british public are more liberal, and more open to Europe than we are lead to believe, and less bothered about the Great britain that the brexiters were banging on abou. And that's only going to keep going that way with demographic change
reckon that once we realise, this autumn, thanks to biometric controls, that getting into Europe for business and vacations has become even more arduous than it currently is – i reckon folks might want to do the EFTA thing as a minimum.
The UK inside Schengen, but not an EU member (rather than the other way around as it used to be) is not an impossible next step (but not any time soon).
And that’s only going to keep going that way with demographic change
Absolutely. It's a waiting game. Partly for the obvious to become so obvious that few can deny it. And partly due to who is still around to vote.
only in some circles / areas and only because they are constantly being fed lies about it.
The problem with this is line of thinking is, ipso facto, they are being fed lies about it. So we're never going to address the issue until those lies get arrested, and frankly there's more chance of me growing a second willy.
You know how democracy works, don’t you?
Do you?
A representative democracy such as the UK votes on people, not policies. People demonstrably cannot be trusted to vote in the best interests of the country over their own personal vagaries. (Arguably nor can politicians, but that's a longer conversation.)
I think you are massively overlooking the subtle but profound impacts of making a snap unilateral decision here.
You'd think we'd have learned from last time, really.
It’s a shame that teamhurtmore and jambalaya are no longer with us to provide their views on how things have gone, and why.
I have no way of knowing for sure, but I am unconvinced that at least one of those statements is incorrect.
No it wouldn’t.
I would bet money that any govt that tried to re-join the EU without a plebiscite would be; to misquote Kaufman "the quickest way to political suicide for that party" One of the reasons for many folks voting for Brexit was one in the eye for the 'elites', those very same 'elites' taking those people back in would be recieved quite badly, I'd wager.
The referendum was 8 years and 5 prime ministers ago!
And the decision to join was made in 1973. It might feel like it's been a while, but reopening the debate isn't something that any political party is currently keen on.
apart from thats what the vast majority want!
The UK inside Schengen
...could totally be sold to people as "bringing lots of benefits such as cheaper shopping and travel" and also "STILL OUT OF EUROPE".
I would bet money that any govt that tried to re-join the EU without a plebiscite would be; to misquote Kaufman “the quickest way to political suicide for that party” One of the reasons for many folks voting for Brexit was one in the eye for the ‘elites’, those very same ‘elites’ taking those people back in would be recieved quite badly, I’d wager.
They accepted the triggering of article 50 happily enough. I'm sure many have persuaded themselves that the referendum was then having their voice (ha!) but the actual decision to take us out of the EU and the subsequent negotiations were all done without the great British public being asked what they thought about it.
Because that's how representative democracy works. You vote for people then they make the decisions.
There is always so much focus on that idiotic advisory referendum and no one seems to pay any attention to how the actual decisions were made.
I'm not entirely sure how we can unilaterally rejoin in a year. Even assuming the UK public were fully behind it, I'm not sure all the EU member states would be, and then getting the UK and EU civil servants to actually complete the mechanics of it is highly unlikely.
I'm not being gaslit, I know how long it takes to get a bloody laptop replaced within the Civil Service, let alone integrate back into tne EU!
Not sure if i commented in here before
I generally found it to be a bad idea, not based off any actual evidence, It didn't make any sense to add more disconnection from the rest of the EU
Anyway,i found a benefit
On a return trip from Tenerife last week i had to go through an additional passport control to sit by a separate area of departure gates. Made me feel special, like a VIP departure lounge, just much crapper
Do you?
Yes, of course. You need people to vote for you, so you can't say '**** the electorate' and not pay attention to them. That's the thing you absolutely can't do.
As for people wanting to rejoin: Rejoining would create a massive political crisis. I think that most people would like to rejoin but no-one wants a massive political crisis. How on earth do you think we could avoid one?
Let's say Starmer announces it tomorrow. Market and investment confidence in the UK would plummet, because what everyone wants is certainty and there would be none following that announcement. Projects would be put on hold all over the place - that would severely damage the economy. Negotiations might start, but this would rumble on for ages - we'd have to drag this through many years. A big chunk of the electorate would lose its mind. At the next election Reform would take enormous chunks out of both parties, but the Tories would probably lose out as they would probably oppose rejoining at that point. So at best you'd end up in 2029 with a hung parliament with Reform holding the power. They could even form a coalition government. Can you imagine that? They'd pull out of negotiations and our international reputation would be far worse than it is even now. From 2029 to 2034 we'd again have no effective government having allowed utter incompetents to take over yet again. Our entire political process would be trashed and we'd be looking at a far worse outlook than we have now.
As much as I dearly would love to rejoin (if you cut me open I'm blue with yellow stars running down the middle) I have to accept that it just isn't possible now. If Starmer plays his cards right he can build pro-EU sentiment and capitalise on the views of the electorate, and eventually we might get a chance. It took us what, 30 years to get in, it took Eurosceptics 40 years to get us out, we're not going back in that easily.
**** the electorate.
You know how democracy works, don’t you?
Yup.
Both the customary representative kind that we actually use in the UK and the throwaway "they'd never be so stupid" 'direct' kind that Cameron so foolishly trusted the electorate with.
Just for a point of order around definitions...
You do know what the word 'advisory' means, don't you?
As for people wanting to rejoin: Rejoining would create a massive political crisis. I think that most people would like to rejoin but no-one wants a massive political crisis. How on earth do you think we could avoid one?
The same way we left.
Got any buses lying around?
Jeez, I'm sort of in agreement with @molgrips.
This country is in the Sh!t whichever way you look. Socially, financially , infrastructure, health care, education, christ, I could go on and on, and we need a stable platform and govt to at least make a start at fixing this. Rejoining the EU ( and by God I want to!) would be too much of a distraction to us all, to enable the changes the UK needs right now. Labour needs at least two terms to enact anything of real tangible change, and there is the second Elephant in the room, the fact the majority of people who voted for Brexit, voted on, shall we say , from a casual racist stand point. Something I feel, we may never get over.
You do know what the word ‘advisory’ means, don’t you?
In the context of a referendum, it means one that does not automatically bring into effect an Act of Parliament.
Rejoining would create a massive political crisis.
I have no idea why you think this when the vast majority want to rejoin.
The real stumbling block is getting the rest of the EU to let us back in
and then getting the UK and EU civil servants to actually complete the mechanics of it is highly unlikely.
the mecahanics are all there laid out. We would be going back cap in hand and taking what is offered.
You do know what the word ‘advisory’ means, don’t you?
Yes, but you have to understand that politics isn't that simple. In fact, the word 'political' is a synonym for a tangled web of relationships and effects.
In politics you need support, both democratically and from within your party. The referendum split the party and the electorate, so whoever was in charge had to do whatever got them the most support.
Molgrips has a good point, if Labour went for this, without a referendum, it would basically engulf their entire time in power until the next election, it would consume so much and take a lot longer than a year, i'd hazard it would be near the full 5 year term for the government!
We'd also have to suffer Farage and Co out on every TV screen going rallying the brexiteer troops, god i suffered enough the first time round without seeing his smug, yellow toothed smug face, even worse, he's in parliament now so would do his old pretending he's Churchill speeches every week.
"The big question is how many EU nations would want us back"
This.
Regardless of the UKs own machinations, the biggest question remains what are the EUs 450million people and their political leaders thoughts. I mean, it's their club not ours.
Letting us back in, opt outs, rebates, return of EU agencies ... really!!
Edit
Shortly after Brexit, the accepted wisdom was that it would be a generation (30 years) before the UK and the EU public and politicians would be in a position/have the will to make it happen.
Yes, but you have to understand that politics isn’t that simple.
I do, but I posed the 'advisory' question back to you to make that very point.
You say that my plan doesn't meet your definition of 'democracy'. I say that the declaring the result of an advisory referendum 'mandatory' also doesn't pass the literal definition test.
In any case - it doesn't matter - the body politic is still in thrall to placating the stupidity of Brexit for their own purposes/needs. We'll continue to scratch around without addressing the biggest easy win of the lot.
Why would there be a political shitshow when its fillowing the vast majority wish?
Why would there be a run on the pound ? Rejoin woukd be an immediate huge boost
You guys are inventing reasons for brexit that make no sense at all
No prime minister is going near the subject of rejoin without feeling confident we'd be allowed back in. The combative manner of the exit and concurrent governments caused many problems. Need to undo some of that damage first imo.
I think we all need to remember that Brexit inflicted a lot of pain across EU states as well. It's irrelevant what we want unless there is political warmth towards the UK from inside the EU.
There wasn't much democracy in the decision to leave was there? From the advisory referendum, to triggering A50, to the 'oven ready' deal.
I very much doubt that at any point anyone on the Leave side stopped and said, 'Hey, this doesn't seem very democratic, do you think some people might get upset? I'd really love to leave but realistically I don't think it's going to happen so maybe we should just keep quiet about it for a few decades and see if it happens by itself. Let's try to make the best of things inside the EU for now, eh?'
Did they ****. They made lots of noise, withheld their votes from the main parties, and got the entire country to the stage where no one over the age of 50 seems to be able to conceive of being back in the EU within their lifetime.
Honestly, the Remain/Rejoin side deserves everything it gets over the coming decades. They deserve all the shit even more than the Leavers. At least the Leavers have the excuse of being to thick to understand the consequences.
Have fun seeing what being 'reasonable' and 'realistic' gets you.
We are talking as if the referendum was properly democratic and looking at some of the stories about Russian meddling in the US, makes you wonder (even more) about the drivers of public opinion at the time.
I think people ultimately are interested in quality of life, and getting drs appts, going on holidays and not spending hours Qing to get out of the country and yet more getting past passport control in Malaga. I'm not sure that the Brexit cult will hold people in its thrall much longer
No prime minister is going near the subject of rejoin without feeling confident we’d be allowed back in. The combative manner of the exit and concurrent governments caused many problems. Need to undo some of that damage first imo.
Not singling you out in particular as a few people on this thread have expressed similar sentiments... just a handy quote...
As I've said, I think pragmatism would win out, I think we are judging 27 other countries by 'our' own racist, insular and protectionist standards.
The maths and logic are clear, we stand to gain from being a member, and the EU stand to gain also, as just for a start, they can buy our stuff and we can buy their stuff without any of the current red tape involved with us being outside of the union.
The whole point of cooperation and being in a union is we become stronger individualy, and also as a whole when it comes to things like trade deals, defence, etc..
The EU is a bonafide superpower, along side the USA, Russia and China on the world stage, and arguably the most modern and socialy democtatic incarnation we've seen so far as a species.
You say that my plan doesn’t meet your definition of ‘democracy’
Noo nonono. I am saying that your 'plan' doesn't acknowledge the realities of living in a country where leaders are elected.
A lot of people seem to overload the word 'democracy' with lofty and noble ideals without really defining any of it; using the word as a synonym for all that is good and decent. I don't do that - democracy just means that the leaders are elected, that's it. It doesn't necessarily produce good government or good anything, as we've seen.
If you say or do what is perceived to be the wrong thing, you won't get elected again. That's the reality - it's not necessarily right or just, but that's how it is.
Why would there be a political shitshow when its fillowing the vast majority wish?
I already typed out one scenario up there. You know full well that appealing to the majority doesn't always win elections, because of FPTP. Some people can hold much more power than others. You know this. Especially regarding Brexit. Labour's 2024 landslide wasn't caused by people agreeing with Labour policies, it was caused by people agreeing with Reform.
the body politic is still in thrall to placating the stupidity of Brexit for their own purposes/needs
A political party's needs ARE votes. That's the whole point. And thanks to our system, not all votes - just a certain sub-set of them, in marginal constituencies.
What's needed is for the EU to implement its "concentric circles of membership levels" that France and Germany seem keen on. UK could join the outer, most loosely bound group and still claim to not be in the EU i.e. the core members in the eurozone. Probably 10 years away tho.
Also, the idea that the EU wouldn't want the world's 7th (?) biggest economy back in is ridiculous
It's got bugger all to do with the EU's perception of the UK government - they were waiting, like the rest of us sensible folk, for the Brexit Tories to go.
The unwillingness to address the issue of Brexit is pretty much totally internal to the UK. The electorate disgraced itself in 2016 and it put the fear of God into Labour and prompted the Tories to full populist idiocy too.
One thing Brexit did was shake the accepted MO of UK politics to its core. Unfortunately it did it for all the wrong reasons - prejudice and stupidity foremost.
“ Also, the idea that the EU wouldn’t want the world’s 7th (?) biggest economy back in is ridiculous”
When the UK initially joined the EEC, as was, it was very much seen as an economic institution. Over time that changed and it became the EU with a much stronger political union/basis as the way forward. Given the UK was seen by most of the EU:
1) as a reluctant adopter, if not an outright refusenik, of much of the political aspects of the EU
2) causing a considerable distraction from many of the other issues the EU needs to solve during the Brexit negotiations and the pain of change required of nearly every EU institution
3) undergoing a debate leading up to the Brexit vote of such low quality, riddled with inaccuracies and irrelevancies
I personally would not assume that the EU will be in a rush to let us back in, ‘7th’ largest economy or not.
Should the EU political elite acquiesce to re-entry then it is likely that in the near term, the conditions offered, to satisfy the EU public and politicians, will be intolerable to the UK, hence a generation for a position acceptable to both sides. As noted above by others, there must be a long term concern in the EU that should the UK re-enter, how long before it changes its mind, again.
Hopefully the UK remains the ‘7th’ largest economy over the decades and ways forward of mutual benefit to both the UK and EU develop .. .. overtime. Concentric circles is a reasonable way forwards but the main economic fruits will likely only be derived from the centre cores with the associated political requirements.
I personally would not assume that the EU will be in a rush to let us back in, ‘7th’ largest economy or not.
Should the EU political elite acquiesce to re-entry then it is likely that in the near term, the conditions offered, to satisfy the EU public and politicians, will be intolerable to the UK, hence a generation for a position acceptable to both sides. As noted above by others, there must be a long term concern in the EU that should the UK re-enter, how long before it changes its mind, again.
All of this. Hard as it seems to believe, this isn't about "us", and to think so makes me wonder at the irony of British exceptionalism.
I agree that pragmatism will win out mattyfez, I just think it will take some time and distance. Unless I am wrong, there is a shift towards the right in many EU countries. I don't find it hard to imagine how the issue could be expoited for political gain in many of them.
And agreed Twodogs, it would seem ridiculous that the EU wouldn't want us back in given the economic scenario. On a par with the UK not wanting to be part of the world's 3rd largest economy.
In any case, I'm a fatalist when it comes to Brexit.
Common sense (not the Esther McVey kind) says that the UK will be far better off in the EU - economically, politically, culturally etc.
But common sense has never been part of Brexit. Cameron getting bounced into a referendum in the first place. The notion of voting for 'change' rather than a status quo* (where have I heard that recently...). The notion that leaving the EU would 'solve' immigration. Etc. Etc.
*I.e. the way the question was framed against a backdrop of austerity, duck houses etc.
Common sense never came into it, so I doubt it will for the foreseeable future.
As much as I dearly would love to rejoin (if you cut me open I’m blue with yellow stars running down the middle) I have to accept that it just isn’t possible now. If Starmer plays his cards right he can build pro-EU sentiment and capitalise on the views of the electorate, and eventually we might get a chance. It took us what, 30 years to get in, it took Eurosceptics 40 years to get us out, we’re not going back in that easily.
Me too, but look on the 'positive' side, the "you voted Leave WTF do you know" card will still be able to be used for the next few decades more...
As much as I dearly would love to rejoin (if you cut me open I’m blue with yellow stars running down the middle) I have to accept that it just isn’t possible now. If Starmer plays his cards right he can build pro-EU sentiment and capitalise on the views of the electorate, and eventually we might get a chance. It took us what, 30 years to get in, it took Eurosceptics 40 years to get us out, we’re not going back in that easily.
If only the Leave side had taken such a sanguine view as you...
the rest of the EU actually wanting us to rejoin is the main obstacle once our governments stop being brexiteers and stop being in thrall to a few racists in a few northern constituencies
Perfidious Albion
“it would seem ridiculous that the EU wouldn’t want us back in given the economic scenario. On a par with the UK not wanting to be part of the world’s 3rd largest economy”
That is meant to be ironic?
i think we'll have to wait until it's a post Farage world before we can start to think about rejoining. He's too powerful a personality with too many actually powerful (rich & influential) supporters to make it work.
Yes - Reform are the spanner in the works. Previously all the main parties were all pro-Europe and eurosceptics had nowhere to go. Now they do. And you can't deny its significance as they either are or could very easily be kingmakers.
as a reluctant adopter, if not an outright refusenik, of much of the political aspects of the EU
One of the ironies of history is that of course it was the Tories (signed by Hurd and Maude) that put their names to the Maastricht treaty that launched that process.
One of the ironies of history is that of course it was the Tories (signed by Hurd and Maude) that put their names to the Maastricht treaty that launched that process.
Yup. I also think, that a generation down the line, it’ll be a reformed Tory party that’ll take the UK back in.
I don't think it'll be the Tories.
The economic case for being inside (the outside band of) the EU will be completely accepted by all the main parties in the not so distant future... then what needs to happen is that the social case will need to be made... and I don't think that'll come from those requiring the votes of the socially conservative and nativist "England First" small town and rural voters... so it won't be the Tory party, and it won't be this current version of Labour. In the future, Labour have the broader base needed to be able to help move the country (back) towards a more open, cooperative and international outlook... I can't see the Conservative party being able to make that shift ever again.
A Brexit benefit?
“Apple has already said European users won’t be getting integrated AI on its devices this year because the company isn’t sure it can do so without breaching Digital Markets Act rules in the European Union. There is one exception to that: it will be accessible in the UK, which is of course no longer in the EU, come December.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/sep/10/techscape-iphone-16-cost-features