[Closed] Boris - boot in trap moment, Obama content

Obama live on BBC news now with a q&a session for young people.

jambalaya - Member - Block User
As others have said on TV today Obama is a lame duck President

They're wrong. 'Lame duck' refers to the time between his successor being elected and sworn in.

I also think he's perfectly within his rights to comment on it, after all the leave campaign say that we'll just trade with other countries. Useful to be able to deflect when the leader of one of those other countries says 'Not that easy'.

Two things I've enjoyed this week are Gove criticising the 'campaign of fear' and then suggesting that voting to remain is like “voting to be hostages locked in the back of the car driven headlong toward deeper EU integration” and then the Vote Leave campaign director's quotes:

“I don’t think it’s Vote Leave’s job to provide figures,” Cummings announced triumphantly, his eyes swivelling manically.

“But Vote Leave quotes numerous figures on its website,” said Tyrie, “Most of them misleading or inaccurate.”

“Accuracy is for snake-oil pussies,” Cummings hissed under his breath. “And besides, I’ve got a really bad memory.”

“Is it not true that you only provide the costs of the EU and none of the benefits? You make the same mistake as Boris Johnson. You don’t read carefully enough. Wouldn’t it have been useful to have done some of the maths.”

“It’s just a matter of a few decimal points,” Cummings said.

Tyrie blinked. Earlier on he had been prepared to accept he might have been dealing with an idiot savant. It only now dawned on him that he was just dealing with an idiot complete.

“There are quite a lot of decimal points between £33bn and £16bn,” he pointed out.

We could talk about why the EU was the most corrupt organisation on Earth, we could talk about why Boris Johnson and Michael Gove weren’t actually members of the establishment, we could talk about why everyone in the Treasury and the Bank of England were complete morons, we could talk about all sort of secret threats that secret people were making about secret things that he would have to keep secret, but talking figures wasn’t on the table.

...

No, he couldn’t confirm whether a Vote Leave advert had been deliberately designed to look like an NHS brochure. No, he couldn’t confirm Britain was in the single market, because we definitely weren’t even though we definitely were. No he couldn’t confirm why Vote Leave was claiming that intra EU trade had fallen since 1999 when official figures showed it had actually gone up by 39%.

So it went on. No, he couldn’t confirm when Vote Leave would make the macro-economic case for Brexit because these figures were obviously top secret and if he were to make them public then they wouldn’t be secret any more. No, he couldn’t name the Goldman Sachs operatives who had bribed everyone in Brussels, because he’d be killed. No, he couldn’t name any of of the umpteen ambassadors who had told him at secret trysts that they really hated the EU because if he did they would all just say he was crazy.

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/20/accuracy-is-for-snake-oil-pussies-vote-leaves-campaign-director-defies-mps ]Actual WTF[/url]

BTW I'm out of further discussion. I'm out and know a fair few more who don't want the hassle of being brow beaten but have chosen our direction. Bye

[img] [/img]

So what? He might want to be PM

The problem is....he's bloody inept!

Remain who don't really care either way and won't make the effort

Sounds like wishful thinking to me..

@Lifer yes I too think Obama is within his rights to comment althoighbI think the whole PR dog and pony show was way over the top. Whether tou think lame duck is the right term Obama will not be President when any negotiation would take place.

@JY if you cant or won't see how the political bias of the EU is at odds with the US or how over the years the US has challenged the EU over what it sees as illegal state aid for companies like Airbus then there is no hope,for you 😉

@hora indeed. All I can say is that the Leavers are very motivated and will vote. I think there are many who answer Remain who don't really care either way and won't make the effort. Beforevthe campaign started I thoight itbwould be very hard for Leave to win, now I am much more confident

No, he couldn’t name the Goldman Sachs operatives who had bribed everyone in Brussels, because he’d be killed.

Sounds like wishful thinking to me..

Call it what you like but there where 15 of us on the Leave stall last wekend with many visitors, 2 blokes on the IN campaign stall and hardly anyone visiting, we watched all morning. Its no co-incidmce the government spent £9.3m on printing and delivering the leaflet as their grass roots operation is very limited, vote Leave has volunteers on the ground doing that work and not reliant on the tax payer

Anecdotal evidence.....is just that..

That Cummings Treasury Committee appearance report must be a spoof. No-one could be that much of an insane arsehole.

Anecdotal evidence.....is just that..

@JY if you cant or won't see how the political bias of the EU is at odds with the US or how over the years the US has challenged the EU over what it sees as illegal state aid for companies like Airbus then there is no hope,for you

JY attitude goes both ways. There are decades worth of statements and challenges to Airbus alone, read up about the tanker contract for example. Think about it the EU has been about For a very long time and no trade deal with the US ? A big part of the rationale for the EU has been to create a trading block to challenge the US, not to cosy up to the US but to challenge it. On Foreign policy look at Obama's stance on Russia/Ukraine - he told the EU to get on with it and take action, Germany and France where extremely reluctant as as far as they are concerned the US has the big army/clout and they could see only lost trade. I bet you Obama has got some pretty strong words for the EU at the migrant summit on Monday. Even the UK which is a strong ally was publically critised by Obama over Libya "Cameron was distracted"

I assure you Obama and the US are not impressed at all by the situation the EU have allowed with Greece (and Spain and Italy too), that default will impact everyone very negatively. The US will be doing all it can to have the IMF exit the loans so it doesn't lose money directly there.

I am going to take an outlandish and wild stab in the dark here and claim that it is his right wing policies that makes left wing people dislike him. I know its a bit radical and out there compared to your rational, non trolly vows

That's a good point Junky, now, can we think of anyone else who the left hated because of their 'right wing' policies, but somehow the public embraced and kept voting for?

History seems to suggest that 'popular and charismatic leader with right of centre policies' is hardly the worlds worst electoral strategy...

Read what Obama said:

[i]Obama argued that he had a right to respond to the claims of Brexit campaigners that Britain would easily be able to negotiate a fresh trade deal with the US. “They are voicing an opinion about what the United States is going to do, I figured you might want to hear from the president of the United States what I think the United States is going to do.

“And on that matter, for example, I think it’s fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement, but it’s not going to happen any time soon because our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done”.

He added: “The UK is going to be in the back of the queue.”[/i]

If you can read that totally unambiguous statement of fact by the President of the United States, but are happy to disregard it in favour of the incoherent racist ramblings of the Self-serving Mop then quite frankly your utterly hatstand foaming-at-the-mouth bonkers! simpke as that.

I'd say that most people possessed of the capacity for rational thought, and the self-awareness to see sense through small-minded backward looking fantacy, and look to their own interests will have stopped listening to the petty racism of Johnson and Farage

Or just face up to the facts, and at least have the honesty to admit they their vote will be cast not on the facts, but on the back of their similarly held petty, inward-gazing and small-minded racist views

Cheers ninfan we do indeed agree that the left hate folk for their policies rather than populism.

Or perhaps 'hate folk for their policies but embrace them due to their popularity' 😉

So voting to leave EU means we avoid TTIP?

@tmh if Vote Leave wins Boris is a shoe in for Party Leader within 12 months,

Is a very good reason to vote stay in. Boris used to be able to play the loveable fool or even the Shakespearan fool. Now he just plays the fool and Fail readers aside, it's easy to see straight through him - Mr Celophane.

from a Greek default/EU economic crises

Greece will expose the flaws in the € folly true, that is clear. BUT, this time the risk is manageable and little more than a side show. You know where Greek debt is held and the losses will be hidden. There is little systematic risk.

The economic crisis remains one of leverage/balance sheet recession (not Greece as you are claiming often) and that is not unique to Europe. Of course the stupidity of having a fixed currency without full monetary and fiscal union makes matters worse (especially for our friends in Greece), but that is a separate debate, albeit the most important one. The idea that Greece is going to trigger an economic crisis in Europe is flawed, sorry.

This is the reason why the current referendum is a stupid idea (with even stupider level of debate) because the key issues are not central to the debate. How can you argue in or out when you're unclear about what it is that you are voting to be in or out of? The ONLY certainty is that the current structure is unsustainable, so why vote about whether you want to be a part of it? We might as well vote about whether we want to be part of the ERM!!

Madness.

Apparently, the back of the queue line was off the official script, so led to a little bit of diplomatic unease!!

But nos amis en France have said the same thing in the past 24 hours.

Now of course, in the event of Brexit, we are not going to be isolated from the world, but still it is extreme arrogance or folly (or both) to pretend (like Gove) tht negotiations will be either quick or easier or that we will have a stronger hand than we do now.

Madness.

binners - Member

If you can read that totally unambiguous statement of fact by the President of the United States,

Is it not fact that it won't be up to President Obama, as he won't be in office?
And since when did you have so much faith in the words of politicians?

but are happy to disregard it in favour of the incoherent racist ramblings of the Self-serving Mop then quite frankly your utterly hatstand foaming-at-the-mouth bonkers! simple as that.

Calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot?
The "Junkyard gambit" is alive and well!

I'd say that most people possessed of the capacity for rational thought, and the self-awareness to see sense through small-minded backward looking fantasy, and look to their own interests

Junckers has taught you well!

will have stopped listening to the petty racism of Johnson and Farage

When did you stop beating your wife, binners? 😉

Or just face up to the facts, and at least have the honesty to admit they their vote will be cast not on the facts, but on the back of their similarly held petty, inward-gazing and small-minded racist views

Fact or fiction? We currently trade with the US, a lot.

Fact or fiction? Trade with the US will stop, post Brexit.

See if you can provide answers to the above without resorting to insults, and if you could convey your answer using words rather than pictures it would be appreciated. 🙂

Greece isn't over yet. It's sat on a huge debt. Italy and Spain are also not in the rudest health.

Where do you draw the line? When Greece finally folds on its debt. It will.

Lifer

I also think he's perfectly within his rights to comment on it, after all the leave campaign say that we'll just trade with other countries. Useful to be able to deflect when the leader of one of those other countries says 'Not that easy'.

You do know that we currently trade with the US, don't you?
Do you think it will just stop if we leave the EU?

No

Calling anyone who disagrees with you an idiot?
The "Junkyard gambit" is alive and well!

Its a fairish point you make but it those who ignore evidence i "struggle" with not different opinions per se.

Fact or fiction? We currently trade with the US, a lot.

Fact or fiction? Trade with the US will stop, post Brexit.

Of course Greece isn't over. It never could be - everyone knows the can was merely kicked down the road - yes the EU love to do that sort of things - it is a true weakness, that one. But the losses will be hidden away in Central Bank balance sheets and absorbed primarily by the taxpayers of Ger, Fr, Italy, Spain and the Neth. Especially the Germans. But that is exactly how these things are designed to pan out however much the Germans like to pretend otherwise. Reep what you sow and all that.

However, Greece is merely a symptom of a different problem and is not a cause of a future crisis, We have that in place already.

But step back and imagine a blank sheet of paper. How would you like to interact with one of the world's largest trading zones? What might you want (access, influence etc) and what would you look to avoid (being part of a flawed currency structure, Schengen (perhaps?), greater political union etc).

Now deep breath, what do we have now? The vote, despite being a poorly timed one, suddenly becomes obvious doesnt it. So obvious that the alternative has to be dressed up in gross distortions and BS. Enter Boris stage right ....

Isn't the desperate necessity of a free trade agreement with the United States somewhat undermined by the fact that we don't already have one?

The US prefers to deal with regional trade negotiations and has stated that it is "not in the market for deals with individual nations."

And trade barriers between the US and EU continue to be reduced - comes back to the blanks sheet of paper

Would you want to be part of a group that is in a better or worse negotiating position with the US?

Good to see Boris still using the pre-rebate figures for our costs of membership. How easily he forgets his dear Maggie? I wonder if he does that deliberately or is he just being thick?

There's a pro in bloke on FB with quite a few followers, he posted some twaddle about our experts of oil and our dependence on foreign oil etc. I posted up stats/official figures and his reply was 'see we aren't a earth friendly nation' etc. Hand/forehead slap moment. I'll have a look for it.

THM, is that really answering the question though?

it's not like we already have one and leaving the EU would endanger it, UK trade with US is already over £100bn annually [b]without[/b] a free trade agreement.

Good to see Boris still using the pre-rebate figures for our costs of membership

Would you want to be part of a group that is in a better or worse negotiating position with the US?

I don't want to part of the group full stop.

*Free trade; great.
Free movement; great.

Ever expansionist; not great.
Ever increasing political union; not great.

*I'm well aware that there are many posters here who think the cost to the UK of EU membership is worth it for this and that we can't have free trade for free.
Well that's exactly what the majority of EU member states get. Not only that, but we pay them for their privilege!

Bailing out the southern states because of their gross corruption is only going to cost us more.

I also don't want to be responsible for the actions of the EU army, which will happen. The people in charge want it to.
At least I didn't vote for Blair, my conscience is clear on that.

It is Ninfan, true. I don't pretend to be an expert on UK/US trade data but I would be surprised if this was not (at least in part) due to the (largely unrecognised ) trend of falling trade barriers between the UK and the EU. I am also aware that the US has been arguing this point - ie it would prefer to deal with a regional trade deal than individual ones - for some time. Nothing that Obama said yesterday was new, other than perhaps the tone and his off script reference to the queue?

On the cost of membership - no its no. It is a clear and gross representation of the truth. Its actually shameful, almost on a par with the depths plumbed by the deceitful one last year.

Sbob, like you, I am cautious about enlargement (although broadly sympathetic to Turkey ex Erdogan) and very much anti the greater political (and fiscal) union that is required to make the € anything other than a grotesque folly. But again, I would suggest the blank sheet of paper...

Ok Dave massively oversold his achievements re negotiating with Europe - however, he secured the UKs position within Europe but outside the move to greater political union. Even Dave haters and agnostics (like me) should give him credit for that.

You are correct free trade does not come for free!! 😉

I was intrigued by your reference to the Pink Book Ninfan but couldn't find reference to the EU contribution in it - it was a quick scan admittedly, so don't deny it's existence - but if you google ONS and UK cost of EUmembership you get a very nice summary that very clearly notes that

Specific exceptions apply to the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. For calculations covering the period 2007-2013, both the Netherlands and Sweden receive respective lump-sum annual reductions of EUR 605m and EUR 150m, financed proportionately by all other Member States. In the case of the UK, a rebate has been applied since 1984, known as the Fontainebleau Abatement. The size of the rebate varies from year to year and is based on the difference between the UK’s share of total uncapped EU VAT base resources and its share of total EU expenditure, multiplied by 66% of total EU expenditure allocated to Member States. This is then adjusted to account for the impacts of VAT capping, introduced in 1988, and an increase in the share of traditional own resource retained for administration purposes from 10% to 25%, effective since 2001. The cost of the UK rebate is borne by all other Member States.

Correct me if I am wrong but Thatcher's rebate and the Fontainebleu Abatement are the same thing. And I would expect Bojo to understand its/their significance - it really was quite important. Nick Robinsons recent broadcast made it the main subject of the programme even!

From full facts

The claim that the UK’s membership fee is £55 million a day comes from the £20 billion annual UK payment to EU institutions listed in the Office for National Statistics' (ONS) Pink Book. [your point]

[b]The ONS told us this isn’t the correct figure to use [my point]. It has another set of figures which actually represent official government payments, although this isn’t clear from the release.[/b] [the caveat]

Sorry but I still believe that Brexit supporters are deliberately and knowingly trying to deceive here. It's not hard to find the true figures really.

Ok Dave massively oversold his achievements re negotiating with Europe - however, he secured the UKs position within Europe but outside the move to greater political union. Even Dave haters and agnostics (like me) should give him credit for that.

What he says he has secured would involve EU directives being changed, and people in charge of changing them have already said they would oppose it.

The project is failing.
Reform will not happen if we vote to remain.

Leave.
Start again.

May I ask you to refer to specific issues that you raised. Are they addressed and confirmed in recent announcements or not?

If you're disagreeing with what I have written, that's fine.
If you're asking me to disprove my own opinions then I am a little confused!

(Waits for it...)

Asking you to consider your earlier list with (from the horse's mouth)

Recalling in particular that the United Kingdom has already been entitled under the Treaties:

–  not to adopt the euro and therefore to keep the British pound sterling as its currency (Protocol ?No 15),
–  no to participate in the Schengen acquis (Protocol No 19),
–  to keep exercising border controls on persons, and therefore not to participate in the Schengen ?area as regards internal and external borders (Protocol No 20),
–  to choose whether or not to participate in measures in the area of freedom, security and justice ?(Protocol No 21),
–  to cease to apply as from 1 December 2014 a large majority of EU acts and provisions in ?the field of police cooperation and judicial cooperation in criminal matters adopted before the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty while choosing to continue to participate in 35 of them (Article 10(4) and (5) of Protocol No 36), ?Recalling also that the Charter of Fundamental Rights has not extended the ability of the Court of Justice or any court or tribunal in the United Kingdom to rule on the consistency of the law and practice of the United Kingdom with the fundamental rights that it reaffirms (Protocol No 30),

Would you care to be more specific?
I haven't really written a list.

If you think we will not merrily walk into greater political union then you are very much mistaken, our leaders want it.
Treaty by treaty it is already happening. This will not change.

Ok point 4 in your short list of points !!

Very happy to be mistaken - there is little or no political will for that either in Westminster or in the country - above all politicians are pragmatists who crave power. They would not misjudge public opinion so badly on that issue.

But, to labour a point, we really do not know what it is we are voting for. It's IS true that there is strong conviction for greater political union among a number of core nations. And if they want to continue with the folly that is the €, then this had to happen by design. Hence note the specific references to our very different position as outlined in the statement quoted ^.

Anyway, that's enough from me. Off for a run to make way for a nice dinner later. A European boeuf bourginon with French wine (0k plus some Chilean tempranillo to test my wino friends).

Don't forget that we won't be able to cook French food if we Brexit 😉

I will, I've used my heritage to procure Polish and Netherlands passports, just in case. 8)

The recent Obama speech telling us why we should remain talking about WWII together but he omits the massive debt the US strung us with to help the demise of our influeblnce globally.

3 ins
2 outs
1 undecided but verging on out

Round the dinner table !

Probably quite representative despite the narrow/skewed sample.

Avoided the topic until Mrs THM bought it up over coffee/lesbo teas. Nearly had to open unnecessary bottles of non EU wine to fuel the debate

Lesbo teas? 😯 I live a sheltered life

You know what those MP's are like 😉

What I don't understand is the naysayers predicting gloom. We are important to German and French businesses. We are important to their trade. If we leave the Euro will nose dive.

The stayers seem to think what has been fed to them, that we are nothing without the leadership in Brussels.

The EU isn't in a healthy state. The Greek crisis had shown this. When they default (they bloody will), what effect on the EU do you think it'll have?

3 ins
2 outs

Why were you comparing belly buttons at the dinner table?

What I don't understand is the naysayers predicting gloom. We are important to German and French businesses. We are important to their trade. If we leave the Euro will nose dive

So you accept that if we leave its bad for them but you dont accept that if we leave it bad for us? I dont understand how you can think that.

Trade will be harmed by us leaving, we all know this its inevitable. That effect will be negative for us and for them. However the EU exports 7% of all its stuff to us and we export over 50% of our stuff to them. Their GDP is also x 5 of ours. Given this is not hard to work out who has most to lose by us leaving
Its also hugely unrealistic to think we can leave the EU, stopping paying, stip obeying their rules and they wil then just go - yeah go on of course you can have unfettered access to the entire market.
The EU wont be massively keen on the UK thriving afterwards as they will also want it to be a "warning" to others- dont leave the EU look what happened to the UK- so they wont be feeling compliant to UK requests.

Clearly the UK will recover - how long and by what method is what the brexit lot cannot answer - but the notion we will not be negatively affected is a dream built on wishful thinking and denial of the obvious.
Its just true/a fact - the only folk who deny this is brexiters. No neutral organisation has this view- that economically in the short to medium term we will be negatively affected.

The stayers seem to think what has been fed to them, that we are nothing without the leadership in Brussels.

The Rotterdam-Antwerp effect.

Quantify.

He cannot he just read it somewhere and thought that staing it might negate the points made. It does not.

[quote=hora ]The Rotterdam-Antwerp effect.

Even with the most extreme interpretation of this its still 43 % v 7% and the points still stand - you know the ones you sidestepped .

Can you really not answer the questions or explain?

We need their trade more than they need ours

We are leaving and they are bigger so they wont be "helping" that much

Our trade, and theirs with us, will be negatively affected by leaving.

None of this is anything more complicated or controversial than predicting the sun will rise tomorrow.

The EU wont be massively keen on the UK thriving afterwards as they will also want it to be a "warning" to others- dont leave the EU look what happened to the UK- so they wont be feeling compliant to UK requests.

That's good enough reason to leave right there, unless that's really the company you want to keep.

The UK has no need to fear such bullying though, as in all likelihood Brexit will be the much needed catalyst for EU dismemberment.
Look at the recent Swedish poll for example, similar countries would not be far behind.
Once the Dutch are certain that they have been ignored, they'll want out too.
With the net contributors facing ever increasing bills to bail out Greece, then Spain, then Italy, it will all fall apart.
In fact I think I'll invest in flaming torches for when the French find out how much extra they'll have to pay.

Leave.
Start again.

If we don't do it now it will be too late.

quite a lot of sciencing money comes from the EU, and collaborations and opportunities rely on membership. Have a lot of fun moving around the place because of membership.

people who want to leave can't seem to come up with any convincing arguments.

That's good enough reason to leave right there, unless that's really the company you want to keep.

I will probably vote In bit that is a good argument for Out - particularly in the light of the blatant non-democratic bullying that Greece is enduring, and the sucking up to the Turks that is ongoing (German prosecution of a comedian who criticises Erdogan, FFS ?????)

Not read the whole thread but actually astonished to see so many people supportive of these comments on the first page. Some of you have really reached new lows, which is quite an achievement.

That's good enough reason to leave right there, unless that's really the company you want to keep

The UK has no need to fear such bullying though, as in all likelihood Brexit will be the much needed catalyst for EU dismemberment.

Its hardly bullying sbob - its merely stating the obvious and (no shit sherlock) from a position of each party's self interest. What's the issue, why would you expect anything else? Brexit is a PITA for most parties and a lose-lose.

Hora, after the next Greek default, losses will be hidden away and absorbed largely by the taxpayers in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. The Germans will huff and puff - conveniently ignoring the fact that this is the inevitable result of the construct that they themselves put in place - but they will not blow their straw house down. Unfortunately, it will not be the catalyst for the much need re-assessment of what the future of EU should look like, who wants to be part of the greater political union, who doesnt, and how will the different parties choose to interact with each other. It is only at the point that a referendum to decide in/out makes any sense?

This is just a rather sad sideshow and given that UKIP isnt a threat anymore a totally redundant political stunt.

It would be amusing if it wasnt so serious.

[KB - a sheltered life indeed if you miss the luscious and tender interplay between the lovely Jasmine and the more robust ginger pubes. Quite a finale 😉 ]

Dr the bullying of Greece is a direct consequence of the € - flawed in concept, flawed in execution. But they are not blame free either 😉

The Germans gave benefited from Turkish migration for decades - they don't bite the hand that feeds them and Frau Compromise needs an elegant (sordid? you decide) solution to her open arms cock-up.

bigrich - Member

quite a lot of sciencing money comes from the EU, and collaborations and opportunities rely on membership. Have a lot of fun moving around the place because of membership.

people who want to leave can't seem to come up with any convincing arguments.

The money is not going to just disappear.
We give money to the EU and we get less of it back. The rest pays for a huge tier of bureaucracy and funding failing countries for their inept and corrupt governance.
I know typically the left leaning are more accepting of increased bureaucracy, but less is better.

Odd Dr, to be considering out when you consider the protection of workers' rights that the EU has been responsible for, but it IS a debate full of delicious contradictions! You appear to favour such things in other threads! 😉

Odd Dr, to be considering out when you consider the protection of workers' rights that the EU has been responsible for, but it IS a debate full of delicious contradictions! You appear to favour such things in other threads!

I agree - there are strong pluses and minuses on both sides.

Dr the bullying of Greece is a direct consequence of the € - flawed in concept, flawed in execution. But they are not blame free either

I agree with this too. Going for a lie down now 🙂

'He can not'.

Junkyard you need to read more than the top three hits on Google.

Read up on the phenomenon. It skewers actual trade figures as the ports are often the hub where trade is dispursed by ship etc regional and even globally.

Just because trade lands in a hub doesn't mean it stays landed.

I though it'd be Grexit that brings down the EU. It might just be Grexit, then we can have a powerful influence in Europe instead of Germany.

It skewers actual trade figures as the ports are often the hub where trade is dispursed by ship etc regional and even globally.

Yes it does - as JY is well aware.

Again - please quantify it.

No free trade agreements exist today betwen UK/EU and US or China, doesn't seem to holding us back. A trade agreement between the US and EU is still some way off due to resistance from the EU. The German people held a 30,000 person rally against the negotiation yesterday.

We come back again to trade imbalances between the UK and the EU which are very much in our favour, we are a rich country buying a huge amount more than we buy from them and focused on high vaue added goods especially from Germany. Those arguing for IN on the basis of "trade" are primarily supporting UK based financial services which in my view are quite capable of standing on their own two feet.

@tmh I don't think you can brush a Greek default under the carpet like that, when it happens and there is the potential contagion to other much larger over-extended EU members. Osbourne was squirming last time to keep us out (aside from our part of the IMF loans) of the bailout but he won't be able to achieve the same next time. We will be required to pay into the stability fund in what Junker will declare is an emergency

It is very much in the interests of the US and the EU we remain in to bolster an economically weak and failing political project, its quite clear to me it is not in our interests.

Trade will continue irrespective of the outcome

In the ST it would be more complicated/difficult in the event of Brexit inevitably - no one knows the rules of the game. But we can see now how uncertainty over Brexit is delaying investment, consumption etc...

In the LT, who knows? But history tells us its better to participate in trade and integrate than to be isolationist - being an active member of one of the world's most important trade areas seems a pretty attractive option to me....

Dr, enjoy your lie down 😉

See i told you all they have is wishful thinking and denial of the truth

Denial of truth?
Did I imagine the Swedish poll?
Am I wrong about how the Dutch feel (admittedly, having family from the Netherlands I'm probably in a more knowledgeable position regarding their feelings and thoughts than yourself, maybe not)?
Am I imagining the growing anti-EU sentiments in the major EU states?
More and more groups calling for a referendum of their own?

I'd suggest that it isn't me that is in denial.

What is? that they only help us if we are in the club and we follow the rules ? That is just what happens in any club. Clubs have rules. if you leave then you dont get the help of the club. Using this as if its somehow unusual or a sign of anything other than the obvious is somewhat strange

I'm not a member of many clubs. Not aware of any of them actively wanting to penalise me for not being a member, which was the tone of the text I quoted.

Hot off the press - news from the EU's next member:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/24/dutch-journalist-ebru-umar-arrested-in-turkey-for-criticising-erdogan

No free trade agreements exist today betwen UK/EU and US or China, doesn't seem to holding us back.

True, precisely because we have benefited form the significant on-going trends of reduced trade barriers between the US and the EU - as mentioned before the US prefers to negotiate with regions/blocks rather than individual countries. Lets not bite the hand that feeds [u]us[/u] either!

A trade agreement between the US and EU is still some way off due to resistance from the EU. The German people held a 30,000 person rally against the negotiation yesterday.

Aspects of it?

@tmh I don't think you can brush a Greek default under the carpet like that, when it happens and there is the potential contagion to other much larger over-extended EU members.

No we both know that Greece now is very different to Greece in the past. Yes, the eventual default will be problematic but the systemic risk - at least to the private sector - is of a very different scale now.

Osbourne was squirming last time to keep us out (aside from our part of the IMF loans) of the bailout but he won't be able to achieve the same next time. We will be required to pay into the stability fund in what Junker will declare is an emergency

True

It is very much in the interests of the US and the EU we remain in

True too

to bolster an economically weak and failing political project, its quite clear to me it is not i[b]n our interests[/b].

much more debatable...

Greece should have been allowed to default but then look at all the stuff they'd bought from German companies. Submarines anyone?

The EU is a great idea on paper.

Denial of truth?
Did I imagine the Swedish poll?
Am I wrong about how the Dutch feel

I'd suggest that it isn't me that is in denial.

Not aware of any of them actively wanting to penalise me for not being a member

Junkyard you need to read more than the top three hits on Google.

Read up on the phenomenon. It skewers actual trade figures as the ports are often the hub where trade is dispursed by ship etc regional and even globally.

Anyway the effect does not negate any of this

We need their trade more than they need ours

We are leaving and they are bigger so they wont be "helping" that much

Our trade, and theirs with us, will be negatively affected by leaving.

Hora saying read up...priceless 😆

Is that what i quoted?

No, you ignored the substance of my post.

I questioned how likely it was that the EU dismemberment if we left. Its fanciful at best to hope for this never mind suggest it

Well you didn't really question it. You just said I had nothing but wishful thinking and was denying the truth, whilst at the same time ignoring the pertinent parts of my post.
There's a word for that.

It's nice of you to think that an economically failing EU will merrily soldier on as usual after losing its second biggest fundraiser.
Nice or naive, one of the two.

I am not sure HowTF we can actually debate this

You've completely misunderstood the situation so no, we can't. You need to read my post again.
This:

Then i suggest you leave them all and stop paying the subs /following the rules as afterwards everything will be just the same as before as they will treat you just the same

shows the comprehension failure.
Not that it is an important part of this discussion. You've ignored those bits.

DrJ - Member

Hot off the press - news from the EU's next member:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/24/dutch-journalist-ebru-umar-arrested-in-turkey-for-criticising-erdogan

That's fair enough.
Everyone knows not to question Dear Leader.

Hello EU superstate.
Goodbye free speech and democracy.

[img] [/img]

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/barack-obama-wants-boris-johnson-prefer-gutter/

Boris Johnson is a former editor of this newspaper, and as such has the right to be treated with a courtesy Spectator journalists do not normally extend to politicians who do not enjoy his advantages.

I am therefore writing with the caution of a lawyer and the deference of a palace flunkey when I say that Johnson showed this morning that he is a man without principle or shame. He is a braying charlatan, who lacks the courage even to be an honest b**tard, for there is a kind of b**tardly integrity in showing the world who you really are, but instead uses the tactics of the coward and the tricks of the fraudster to advance his worthless career.

you ignored the substance of my post.

Well you didn't really question it. You just said I had nothing but wishful thinking and was denying the truth

It's nice of you to think that an economically failing EU will merrily soldier on as usual after losing its second biggest fundraiser.

shows the comprehension failure.

Have you considered explaining WHY am I wrong rather than just saying I am wrong?
It really is impossible ot have a rational debate with a brexiter but the irony is a beautiful thing to behold.

JY the EU ex UK will be run primarily by the Germans and French (to the extent it isn't already), those two countries have the most to loose from a no-trade pact in the event of Brexit. We are very confident there will be a suitable deal and the risk of none or a delay is more than balanced by the benefits of not being sucked into a Greek default eurozone implosion - outside the EU we'll have the flex to react as necessary. All the new EU members going forward will follow the mode of economically weak countries seeking to gain financially whilst offering little more than "market headcount"

None of the analysis has focused on the huge benefits of controlled immigration with the UK taking the best and brightest defined by what [b]we need as a country[/b] as set against freedom of movement which undermines wages and working conditions.

Corbyn and others have spoken about the benefits of remaining in a Reformed EU but the EU is only reforming in one direction and thats further away from we as a country want, its a European Superstate project

those two countries have the most to loose from a no-trade pact in the event of Brexit.

We just won't hold any bargaining chips at the table - we will be like Scotland asking to keep the pound- except they will probably let us if we pay- and to argue otherwise is to put your politics/ view of the EU before reality.

It appears that even Mr. Farage is wanting to disassociate with The touslehaired one, saying "one should play the ball not the man"
A quote in todays Sunday Times from a Vote Leave source:
"Obama coming here and telling us what to think is insulting, but Boris issues a borderline racist insult and it all rebounds on us"

You want to say I ignored the substance of your post when you spoke about something i never said and I actually quoted you

You cherry picked, or part quoted.
I was trying to get you to engage with the parts of my post you ignored.
Sticking your fingers in your ears and singing "La la la I can't hear you" will not further debate.

Read that back to yourself will you

Again, I was trying to get you to engage with the pertinent parts of my post, the bits you are still ignoring.

There is a word for that straw man - I questioned what you said I accepted there was implications for both i reject it will break up without us

I'll concede the first part, but as for the likelihood of breakup post Brexit, you are refusing to discuss the matters I raised. Until you do, there is no discussion.

I think you will need to explain how clubs dont work like that for me to be having a comprehension fail

You're arguing against something I haven't said (ooh, a *strawman! Back at you!). Go back and re-read what I did write or just drop it.

Have you considered explaining WHY am I wrong rather than just saying I am wrong?

Oh FFS.

There are many clubs that [b]I do not belong to[/b].
None of these clubs penalise me for not being a member.
The tone of this post:

The EU wont be massively keen on the UK thriving afterwards as they will also want it to be a "warning" to others- dont leave the EU look what happened to the UK- so they wont be feeling compliant to UK requests

suggests that the EU would likely penalise us for not being a member.

Hence the bullying remark.

I used to be a member of a cycling club.
I am no longer a member of that cycling club.
The cycling club do not try and penalise me now I am not a member.
Shit, sometimes I still go cycling with them.
They are not bullies.

Is that clear to understand?

Seriously, my written English isn't bad and I believe I write quite clearly.
If I'm going to have to explain every simple post I make you may as well stop replying.

It really is impossible to have a rational debate with

Someone who continually refuses to acknowledge and try and refute what the other side are saying.

jimw - Member

It appears that even Mr. Farage is wanting to disassociate with The touslehaired one, saying "one should play the ball not the man"

If Farage has successfully taken the moral high ground then BJ is definitely ****ed! 😆

[i]"Obama coming here and telling us what to think is insulting, but Boris issues a borderline racist insult and it all rebounds on us"[/i]

Borderline racist? Thats a generous interpretation. Theres nothing 'borderline' about it!

Its just yet another example of Boris being prepared to do absolutely anything, including wooing the racists, to get what he wants. I find it absolutely inexplicable that there are people who can't see through him. As hurty said earlier, his naked ambition is absolutely transparent. This whole EU thing is just a game to him, in his bid to be PM. He couldn't give a toss about the detrimental effect it has on the economy, the country, or anyone in it, as long as he gets to be boss.

I think if he got it though he'd be like Gordon Brown. He jealously covered the top job, and was prepared to anything to get it, then once he got there, he didn't have a ****ing clue what to do.

Boris is the same. In fact he'd be far, far far worse. He'd make GB look like Churchill! He'd be an absolute disaster!

sbob you cannot be in a the EU club and then get them benefits of membership. It just wont happen and do argue otherwise is to be somewhat disassociated from reality.

They wont help the Uk afterwards- anymore than we help them - If you want to call this bullying , when both sides will be doing the same thing, then that is your choice. However this is a result of your politics rather than due to a calm consideration of the facts.

All of this is just silly all of this remains true hence why you need to debate by ognoring anyone who comments on your posts - for not talking about the right bit- then wobble all over the place in a shitty personal dialogue that is so poor even I Am declining it and being the nice one.
The reality is the EU wont collapse without us
We need their trade more than they need ours

We are leaving and they are bigger so they wont be "helping" that much

Our trade, and theirs with us, will be negatively affected by leaving

You have nothing to negate those points for they are as contentious as saying the sun will rise hene you do this because you just want to leave