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The only person who'd come out of a debate well against Trump is Tony Clifton
So the answer is to kill Putin and the global geopolitical situation will change to a much more favourable one.
It is interesting that the luring appeal of conspiracy theories now stretches beyond its core right-wing base.
I guess it makes them particularly attractive if they can be used as an explanation for failures that you might otherwise have to take responsibility for.
I think "the answer" (ie something that could be done) might be to re-regulate broadcast news in the USA, as it was by the FCC before 1987. Something much harder to put in place would be to hold social media companies more to account for how their services are used for disinformation amplification and grifting based on known falsehoods.
Thanks for the earworm @gordimhor ... what a tune.
I think it's a bit late in the day for Biden to step down and Harris go into the election as the serving president, unless some sort of major global event happens where she can show strong leadership but I don't think any of us really want such an event...
Looks like Trump has got yet more of this countries intellectual heavyweights onside
https://Twitter.com/OK_Magazine/status/1815295582287896760
Biden resigning as Pres and having Harris take over as Pres doesn't give her an unassailable advantage but it does reinforce the image of her as Biden's stooge with no identity of her own. Her lack of profile to date means she doesn't start with a platform - but she also doesn't have a huge amount of baggage to weigh her down in this election.
I’d like to see a debate between Harris and Trump. I’d put money on an ex-lawyer against a racist, sexist grifter.
Starmer didn't really do that well against Johnson.
Looks like Trump has got yet more of this countries intellectual heavyweights onside
She's president of Iceland right?
Not sure she be voicing an opinion in her position...
Plus if she is 'promoted' to President, it opens up a VP vacancy. The candidate for that would have to ratified by a vote in Congress, so that wouldn't happen before the election. And means that the Speaker of Congress, currently a weird evangelical Trumper, would be next in line to be president should anything happen to Harris.
Trump lacks the subtlety (and self awareness) to deal with a black woman in a debate. The resulting car crash wouldn't change the minds of the idiots supporting him but might focus the attention of people who don't want a racist sex offender in control of their country until 2029.
I think Harris will have a few weeks to see if she cuts thru / the polls improve. If she does OK then she will get the nomination unopposed. If she doesn't then it will be a contested nomination. Maybe.
She is not going to take votes from the right. Wrong genitals and wrong skin colour :-). However she may well be able to get those undecided / swing voters onside. I think her focus on reproducti9ve rights will be a vote winner. Anti abortionists will not be voting democrat anyway
I think her a better candidate than H Clinton was
but it does reinforce the image of her as Biden’s stooge with no identity of her own. Her lack of profile to date means she doesn’t start with a platform
If Biden resigns and she becomes president? I would have the actual opposite. If as looks possible she becomes the official Democrat candidate the fact that she is Biden's vice president makes her look more like a Biden stooge that if she was the acting president.
It would also obviously mean that she would enter the presidential election with a much bigger profile.
I doubt that it will happen, after all it was quite a job to get Biden to eventually declare that he wouldn't seek a second term, but personally I am not seeing any obvious negatives to Harris taking over now as acting president.
I am not seeing any obvious negatives to Harris taking over now as acting president.
Questions are already being asked in the press/media/sections of the Democratic party about the legitimacy of her being 'anointed' rather than chosen by the party who are free to nominate whoever they want now that Biden has said he's not running , I think Biden stepping aside to allow her to become Pres smacks of trying to control a very fractious party that would probs cause more issues than it solves.
Questions are already being asked in the press/media/sections of the Democratic party about the legitimacy of her being ‘anointed’ rather than chosen by the party who are free to nominate whoever they want now that Biden has said he’s not running
Surely the answers to these questions everyone knows? The president is in poor health and frail and Harris is the vice president. It is literally in her job description and the nation voted for her to be vice president.
I can't see a problem. Although presumably Trump and his supporters can
I actually wonder if theres a smart bit of strategy in play here.
Regardless of how Trump and Biden have been poling against other, theres also polling that shows sizeable numbers of voters on both sides of the equation haven't really wanted either candidate, with both their ages being a factor. The biggest threat to both party isn't the opposition but the risk of their own voters not turning out to vote.
I doubt it was Biden's hope or plan not to run again, but the timing of the announcement is perhaps very good. Both Trump and Biden have been presumptive candidates up until now- winners of the primaries - but it's only as of the last few days the Trumps candidacy has been set in stone. He is the republican candidate, Biden was still the presumptive candidate and the Democratic convention is a while off.
Whoever they do choose, just by not being one of the same old faces, solves that broader poling issue for the Democrats but comes too late for the republicans to change tack.
Half glass full. Like it. And it’s very plausible!
Going to go out on a limb here: there's no chance Biden will beat Trump in November now.
Probably not....
The only person I can see taking on Trump in a debate is a good, surreal standup comedian. I think Ross Noble or Noel Fielding could take him. A sensible lawyer type has no chance. They deal in facts and logic. Two things that don’t exist in Trumpville.
Stewart Lee’s piece in The Guardian made me chuckle. Basically it is all Macauley Culkin’s fault.
Trumps candidacy has been set in stone. He is the republican candidate
This. And he's a shitbag that they can't get rid of
Now his nemesis, the other old codger, has dropped out, he kind of looks a bit pointless. Would the GOP have gone for Trump if they'd known he was up against Harris, or anyone else for that matter? I don't know, but it does feel like he's the wrong tool for the job now.
Joe Biden's second term was set in 2022 when the "red wave" didn't materialise during the mid-term elections and he was "unbeatable". In 2022 exit polls suggested that voters were far more concerned about the economy (31%) and abortion (27%) than they were about gun control and migration, which was where Donald Trump focussed.
The economy reached a high in late 2023/early 2024 but has since showed signs of cooling towards the November election. Unemployment will be a biggie for obvious reasons (4.1% and rising), but Trump didn't have a good record during his presidency, "The economy lost 2.9 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.6 percentage points to 6.3%." https://www.factcheck.org/2021/10/trumps-final-numbers/
In 2022 Trump talked up the wrong things. In 2024 he managed to stick to the script for about half an hour before he went off one at the RNC. Voting against Trump because he's Trump is a big motivator for Dems, almost 67% of the total electorate turned out in 2020, the highest since 1992
Being the incumbent, in and of itself, isn't a positive as many former presidents will tell you. It's all to play for and the important thing is not to rush to appoint a candidate
I also got the feeling the Dems (and possibly Biden) were waiting for Trump to be set in as the GOP nominee before he stepped down.
Although, that would require a belief that the GOP would actually nominate someone other than Trump. And I don’t think that would have been an option. So maybe I’m guilty of retrospectively agreeing with the narrative.
Nevertheless, I think Harris is best placed to beat Trump (now! not a year or two ago). She nor nobody else will change the MAGA base, but I think she’ll get a chunk of the needed Dem vote mobilised.
Biden might be getting past it, but I think his political instincts are still sharp enough to see the value of waiting until the Republicans had shot their bolt at the RNC, before announcing he was stepping down. How much it'll take the wind out of the sails of the Trump campaign remains to be seen, but the world would be a happier place if Trump becomes a two-time loser come November.
Biden is your typical old man who has only given up the keys after he's rolled the car. He didn't wait until now to help the Dems or screw the Republicans, it just became significantly more likely that he was going to lose, so he saves some face by dropping out rather than being the one to hand the presidency to Trump.
rather than being the one to hand the presidency to Trump
That is absolutely why he’s done it. If he has been convinced that he can’t beat Trump, and that the only chance to stop Trump is for someone else to stand against him… then of course that is the reason to step aside.
“ How much it’ll take the wind out of the sails of the Trump campaign remains to be seen”
On the radio earlier, the USA correspondent was saying Trumps lot are raging, as all their plans were to attack Bidens age and mental capacity. That was their campaign, nothing about what they were going to do, just saying ‘dont vote for dozy Joe’ was their strategy.
Also, they dont think Trump will do the live debate with Harris, as she’ll be far more lucid than him, especially now that they turn off the mics when it isnt his turn to speak, so he cannot bawl out ‘fake fake’ every time she tells a fact.
Their next target will be anything to do with California, of which Harris has an association. Apparently they see Cali, and especially LA, as the cesspit of the World, and it’ll bring down the rest of the USA if left as it is. Of course, this is all due to the Democrats in charge, who are , literally, devils disciples allowing the sins of LA. The USA is so messed up.
correspondent was saying Trumps lot are raging
Donald Trump says Republicans should be ‘reimbursed for fraud’ for the money spent campaigning against Joe Biden
https://fortune.com/2024/07/22/donald-trump-republicans-reimbursed-fraud-joe-biden-kamala-harris/
lol!
I'm pretty sure that's not how it works! don't play the player, play the game, don!
Biden might be getting past it, but I think his political instincts are still sharp enough to see the value of waiting until the Republicans had shot their bolt at the RNC, before announcing he was stepping down
It certainly seems like there was a bit of theatre from Biden, absolutely denying he'd stand down but then the minute he did Harris has a TV ad ready to go.....
Trump still going to be the favourite and the Biden campaign so far have been crap, but it'll be interesting to see if Trump & the Republicans have a plan to deal with Harris that's not just racism and sexism
kelvin
Full MemberThat is absolutely why he’s done it. If he has been convinced that he can’t beat Trump, and that the only chance to stop Trump is for someone else to stand against him… then of course that is the reason to step aside.
Yep. I think basically he had to be convinced that someone else had a better chance to make what is a pretty big move, and that's how it should be. If he believed they were doomed regardless (as many people said) then it was his duty to own that and lose. If he believed he was the best chance regardless then of course he'd stay in the running. And in the end I think there's zero chance he'd have ever stood down if all it left was a total vacuum, that's just walking away from responsibility.
All the public stuff was so negative, a long list of people saying "stand down" but not presenting answers or alternatives, and very few people really speaking about Harris at that point- I'd dismissed her for that reason, not because she couldn't be good but because it seemed like the most important voices calling for him to step down, were really obviously not mentioning her. But clearly by the time the announcement was made a route forward was already in place. Whether the party's fully behind it, who knows. How early they knew, who knows about that either? There's probably a bestselling book in it for anyone who does.
Claim to fame time - I vaguely know someone in the Harris camp (been for coffee with etc) and briefly met Harris’ sister and husband.
they’re a class act. Clearly political / highly intelligent family but have that “make you feel like you’re the only person in the room” star factor (without a hint of BS). Very humble too - no bragging about who they are. Just come across as decent people.
the podcasts I listen to say Kamala is brilliant in the room, but struggles with the TV cameras etc.
let’s hope she can fix that (if she’s on the ticket) because I’m not sure I can stand 4yrs of trump.
I'm enjoying the way the 'too old for the presidency' has now backfires so it is now only Trump who is coming across as too old.
Probably the last time we'll hear that argument from the Republican camp.
TBH I don't care if they vote in Trump or not, it's likely not really going to effect anyone outside the US. Trump on the world stage or needing to make decisions about that are probably not going to happen, and he'll turn inward in a new McCarthyism.
TBH I don’t care if they vote in Trump or not, it’s likely not really going to effect anyone outside the US. Trump on the world stage or needing to make decisions about that are probably not going to happen, and he’ll turn inward in a new McCarthyism.
Are you serious?
trump is totally transactional and will do a deal with anyone, anywhere if there is a benefit to him; he will pull support from Ukraine - which is outside the US; he will do nothing to stop China from moving against Taiwan. He has no allegiance to NATO. Palestinians in Gaza? A protectionist economy will damage both the US and it's trading partners. His behaviours will encourage other authoritarian leaders outside the US to adopt more extreme positions.
A second trump presidency will be damaging for democracy on the world stage.
New McCarthyism - yep, that's highly likely given his comments and those of acolytes about revenge.
Biden is your typical old man who has only given up the keys after he’s rolled the car. He didn’t wait until now to help the Dems or screw the Republicans, it just became significantly more likely that he was going to lose, so he saves some face by dropping out rather than being the one to hand the presidency to Trump.
I am getting the feeling it was the democrats central office and his inner circle that was the problem, telling him how good he is doing, how great he is etc despite the reality of the situation. I suspect they wanted to have someone to control in the job, which is actually quite worrying about how the party is run.
He didn't inform them that he was thinking about it, only told them minutes before making the a public announcement, which suggests to me that he had realised not just his personal frailties, but that his team were "playing" him and he needed to exclude them from the decision making process. Then after the announcement his team have been lashing out and trying to play the victim card, while he has taken a much more consolidatory tone.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1815444451348636142
I mean..what the what?
If you don't know who she is, (I didn't) heres a link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Loomer
^^ I'd not heard of her either but after reading her wiki... I'm pretty glad I hadn't.
They really are churning them out cookie cutter style in the US these days. :/
After a few weeks of GOP triumphalism as they assumed they were marching straight to power it's quite amusing to watch some of them flip straight to panic mode.
Looks like the battle lines are being drawn by Kamala Harris already, for the campaign to come
https://Twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1815513151049441475?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
It certainly seems like there was a bit of theatre from Biden, absolutely denying he’d stand down but then the minute he did Harris has a TV ad ready to go…..
The BBC have funeral announcements ready to go for various Royals, etc. It's a sensible contingency plan
Are you serious? trump is totally transactional
+1 I made this point somewhere else, Ukraine thread maybe? He cannot see beyond that single deal
hillary got put forward because it ‘was her turn’, rather than being the best person for the job…
Hillary was voted in by the people, the Electoral College system skews towards the Republicans
It also has a whiff of ‘we didn’t elect her’, which isn’t correct but it is similar to the torys changing leaders/PM’s and that I think isn’t a good look.
+1 Kamala agrees, she's already said that she wants to properly "earn and win" the nomination. She has certain advantages: $$$ in the joint war-chest, senior Dem endorsements, but she doesn't have endorsements from Obama, Pelosi, etc.
There are around 3500-4000 primary voters "freed" by Joe Biden to endorse a nominee
but she doesn’t have endorsements from Obama, Pelosi, etc.
Pelosi has endorsed her, she now has a majority of the delegates endorsements
I don't disagree that anointing someone Sunak or Truss style doesn't look great but, everyone knows there's very little time and she was elected to be VP to a very old guy
It won’t be Sunak or Truss style. US voters will be asked in November who they want as their president
its plausible that biden might step aside before november
I think it's a bit of a leap to go from Biden deciding not to run to him standing down as president. People have doubts about his ability to win the next election, nobody working around him is saying he's unable or unfit to do the job of President currently on a day to day basis. There are no Miles Taylor like leaks and revelations of a sub-functional president that we used to see during the Trump administration. Biden's not in bed till 11am watching TV or blocking the Whitehouse plumbing with paperwork.
Trump has already set a pretty low bar for how poorly a president can perform and not be kicked out the job (I'm genuinely surprised that the democrats don't make the point that non of Trumps cabinet from his first presidency are prepared to work with him again)
All Biden suffers from is occasional fluffing of words during public speaking - its not a good look for what is effectively a popularity contest to get elected, it might give people cause for concern for how well he might be able to do the job in 3,4,5 years time - but he's not failing to do the actual job right now.
its plausible that biden might step aside before november
I thought the comment was made with regards to her being a Biden backed shoo-in candidate? Either way US voters voted for her to be vice president and to step in to replace Biden should the need arise.
UK voters did not vote for Truss and Sunak to become prime ministers in any circumstances.
The similarities to the UK are not quite that obvious imo
That Loomer woman. She’s not a nice lady judging by that wiki bio.
Banned from food delivery apps, payment portals and car hire websites for hate speech 🙂 You can't say she's not putting the work in.
Biden would have to be in a coma or completely incoherent for him to step down as President.
The idea that Trump wouldn't affect anyone outside the US is completely wrong. Even despite COVID, his first (and hopefully only) term had a huge impact on Israel, Brazil, the Philippines, Ukraine etc. A second term would again massively affect all of Europe, Palestine, Central America, China and Taiwan...
Since this is now halfway to being the Kamala! Harris! thread, this pic made me think of literally every british police drama ever.
/blockquote>
She's a plucky DI who empathises - sometimes too much - with her victims, much to the annoyance of her old school superintendent. Her friends don't understand why she came back to this hardscrabble seaside town after a decade at Cambridge and the Met fast track. She lives alone in the shambolic cottage her mother left her, unwilling - or unable? - to go through her effects. And now she is following up rumours of a serial predator hiding in plain sight - a successful local property developer who is running for Mayor. Watch the first episode of Home Town on BBC1 tonight at 8pm or stream the whole season on iPlayer.
She’s a plucky DI who empathises – sometimes too much – with her victims, much to the annoyance of her old school superintendent. Her friends don’t understand why she came back to this hardscrabble seaside town after a decade at Cambridge and the Met fast track. She lives alone in the shambolic cottage her mother left her, unwilling – or unable? – to go through her effects. And now she is following up rumours of a serial predator hiding in plain sight – a successful local property developer who is running for Mayor. Watch the first episode of Home Town on BBC1 tonight at 8pm or stream the whole season on iPlayer.
I know a Gritty Bafta when I see one
Biden would have to be in a coma or completely incoherent for him to step down as President.
Yeah, this. I really don't see him stepping down. There's also a risk to Harris that if she proves to be a bit pants, the election becomes a referendum on her performance. I think that might outweigh the advantages, if there are any, of being the incumbent. I'm not sure she would be viewed as that anyway, personally
It does look to me that the decision was made for Biden to quit some time ago. And that everything has been timed to get as much advantage and momentum from the announcement. This didn't all happen since the weekend.
If the numbers are correct, I am quite surprised how much money has flown into the coffers since the news broke. That has to be a positive.
After listening to a good number of podcasts and reading enough press articles I'm feeling increasingly positive that Harris could/should be a worthwhile person for the dems to coalesce around and if she does get over the line with US voters she could be good for the world.
I'm looking forward to her first speech as a presidential candidate rather than as a vice presidential candidate. Apparently her achilles heel is reading from an autocue.
If the numbers are correct, I am quite surprised how much money has flown into the coffers since the news broke. That has to be a positive.
there was obviously a lot of people holding off on supporting Biden because they either didnt think he was up to the job, or that he was just never going to win
If the numbers are correct, I am quite surprised how much money has flown into the coffers since the news broke. That has to be a positive.
This is really positive. People like to back winners. Donors obviously thought that in donating money to a Biden campaign, they might as well just set fire to it. They clearly don't think that any more, which is definitely a positive. It obviousky represents a massive shift in momentum to the Democratic campaign
Trump also already seems to be having a massive hissy that he won't be facing Biden, which can only be a good thing
Knowing what Trump is like, he'll no doubt default to be nasty, sexist, misogynist and racist about kamala. No doubt that'll go down a storm with the Chucks and Bubbas of his base, but I can't see it going down well with a wider audience of swing voters
Odd that Obama(s) have not endorsed Kamala as yet - unless he is secretly a Trumpina!
I know a Gritty Bafta when I see one
Gritty Bafta? Gritty! Bafta!
IIRC Obama said he wouldn't call for Biden to step down endorse anyone as he did not want to influence the selection process but once selected he would get behind them????
I am so loving that quote from Harris. I think I now have a crush on her. It is just so go 🙂
Harris was my prediction when the 2020 campaign started.
Her initial promise rapidly faded and she dropped out before the primaries.
I hope she and her team have worked hard to strengthen her weaknesses; you can bet your last dime that trump's team have dissected her 2019/20 performances to develop attack lines.
A Harris - trump debate would be *interesting* but I doubt trump would agree to it as the potential downsides would be a big risk; also the use of muted mics and no audience would severely limit him when faced with a lucid and competent adversary.
Her support base is broad but there are questions about how deep it is; trump's support base is (relatively) narrow but it is deep.
"trump’s team have dissected her 2019/20 performances to develop attack lines"
I think you're giving his team far too much credit. They've got one plan and that plan is now screwed. They're next plan won't go much further than, "don't vote for the black witch". I look forward to her giving him a good kicking.
I read that Obama was adopting an elder statesman type role and not directly endorsing publicly. I certainly don't think he doesn't want her to stand
Re the donations yes very positive. It shows there was an enormous latent demand to defeat trump, and the past couple of days seems to have seen a massive shift in optimism not only from Dems but the ABT block.
Will there be a VP debate?
Vance seems poor in the rally he's spoken at so far, if he bombs in a debate I can see Trump turning on him, Harris's VP pick will be crucial in that regard
Trump sort of saying he only wants to debate Harris on a friendly station like Fox, Id love to see Ramblin old Dopey Don get his arse handed to him by Harris
@stevenmenmuir - trump's team are far more organised, structured, disciplined and focussed than 2019/20 so I don't agree with your comment about giving them too much credit.
They will rapidly pivot away from age and attempt to tie Harris to what they perceive to be Biden's failings - they started doing it within minutes of Biden's announcement.
100 days to find out which of us is right.
Trump sort of saying he only wants to debate Harris on a friendly station like Fox, Id love to see Ramblin old Dopey Don get his arse handed to him by Harris
There was a US commentator on Five Live earlier who reckoned there was absolutely no chance Trump would go into a debate with Harris and expect any old ridiculous excuses to avoid it
trump’s team are far more organised, structured, disciplined and focussed than 2019/20
I thought that as well, the rumour is that his daughter in law is the "handler", however there have also been signs of him escaping his leash over the past week. I am not sure however disciplined and focussed his team are that he can follow suit. He is just a natural arrogant loudmouth bully, and I don't think he can keep a lid on that for 3 months.
Obama has actually said he wants an open convention (where there is basically an election where anyone can stand). I guess he thought that if it was a Harris Coronation then that might store up problems down the track.....or maybe he didn't want to endorse Harris. Either way I think he underestimated the wind behind her and now will need to backtrack somehow which isn't ideal.
Other than him its been a pretty united front from the Democrats.
The devil will be in the VP detail - its not just who they want but who wants to stand. Some big hitters might want to sit this out for a shot at actual presidency
I see Vance has described Harris in an interview as a "childless cat lady with no stake in America" .
I wonder where we heard that kind of nonsense before?
It is fascinating where they get these attack lines from, like do they run them by a spad or something? The image of Malcom Tucker dealing with Vance is thrilling ?
I heard somewhere that Trump is already regretting picking Vance. The next three and a bit months are going to be very interesting, I just hope KH has a good security team around her.
any more on the trump / vance regrets steven?
I suspect Vance will come to regret the decision more. I wonder what Pence thinks about his decision to work with Trump these days...?
If the numbers are correct, I am quite surprised how much money has flown into the coffers since the news broke. That has to be a positive.
Not just big donors either. From the BBC:
Democrats have poured $100m (£77m) in donations into Vice-President Kamala Harris' presidential bid since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday, according to her campaign.
The tally was boosted by what her team calls a record 24-hour period of fundraising with $81m raised.
It is the largest 24-hour period of campaign funding in presidential history with more than 888,000 donors making contributions of less than $200 in the day after Biden stepped aside.
Sadly, latest poll shows she'll lose to Trump by a smaller margin than Biden...so, much work to do, as positive as it is to see KH probably get the ticket. I have concerns that it might just be false hope on the Democrats side, and that creosote chimp is heading to victory regardless.
Sadly, latest poll shows she’ll lose to Trump by a smaller margin than Biden…so, much work to do, as positive as it is to see KH probably get the ticket. I have concerns that it might just be false hope on the Democrats side, and that creosote chimp is heading to victory regardless.
To my mind this is now a test of the character of the United States public. They have a credible alternative to Trump to vote for. There are no age issues like Biden. She does not have the baggage of Hilary Clinton and to be fair is a lot more likeable. In front of them they have Trump - a white (orange) old man of privilege; his ranting and nonsense words, his criminal record, his sexual assault record, his instigation of a riot. Or they have Harris , a black woman. If they collectively choose to vote in Trump now then a plague on their houses (or nuke from space - either is good). It is the civic duty of every sane thinking american to do all they can to get her elected, for no other reason than to have any personal credibility if they choose to travel beyond their borders for the foreseeable. The American public are literally on trial right now.