Autumn or Spring election?

It would make no sense for the government to go for a general election over a year early when they are so far from their stated economic goals and with such a huge lead for the Opposition.

It is not feasible to believe that the Opposition lead could get any bigger if the government waited until next year to call a general election. Depending on how things pan out there is always a vague possibility that Labour lead will reduce.

More likely autumn next year I would have thought, unless something miraculous happens before that for the Tories and the Labour lead falls significantly.

yeah no chance unless they're way ahead in the polls

I doubt they'll get rid of Sunak. There doesn't seem to be any credible replacement, (not that they every worried about this for the last few years!)

They'll want to keep their snouts in the trough for as long as possible, so unless anything happens so catastrophic that the whole shitshow collapses, they won't go voluntarily. Vote of no confidence isn't likely because they still have a decent majority, albeit one that's shrunk, and is likely to continue to do so due to byelections.

edit - can a VNC even trigger an election? I'm not sure it can.

I believe that a vote of no confidence should trigger the dissolution of the current government. Under the circumstances, if someone else is in a position to form a government that wouldn't also face a vote of no confidence, then a general election isn't necessarily required.

I wouldn't necessarily rule out an election this year. If Sunak loses a lot of the upcoming by-elections, he may end up with no choice but to call an election if he loses even more of his authority.

I got my first election literature to deliver this week. Labour are gearing up for an early election

Apparently, if the rumours doing the rounds in Westminster are to be believed, Rishi has seen the absolutely apocalyptic economic forecasts for next year and he’s getting itchy to go early to try and save an absolute wipeout.

Early next year is the assumption, rather than hang on as everything goes to shit even more than it has done already, but Autumn is a possibility

I don't think there is any possibility that the Tories will change their leader yet again in this parliament, it would look like an act of desperation.

They are of course desperate but they need to at least pretend that they have a plan and that they know what they are doing.

and save an absolute wipeout

Well currently all the polls are forecasting an absolute wipeout.

All the polls are overwhelmly showing the Tories on less than 30% of the vote. The Tories have never in 200 years received less than 30% of the vote in a general election (that's with unionist parties I believe)

Their support simply can't fall any lower than it is now. The 25-28% they are polling now represents the hardcore dyed-in-the-wool Tory voter who will vote Tory no matter what.

Their support simply can’t fall any lower than it is now

Given the catastrophic economic forecasts and the fact that the cost of living crisis is now hitting their core voters as well as the plebs, I wouldn’t bet on that.

I imagine anyone who’s fixed term mortgage deal is coming to an end or who’s rent is getting whacked up will be looking to vote for anyone but the Tories, and as the Bank of England helpfully pointed out this week, that is millions and millions of people

Our external consultants are predicting spring next year, there's legislation going through that could destroy our industry, they've already lost a judicial review, missed a great opportunity to put some proper regulation in place that would actually benefit consumers and instead went for cheap headlines. We're hoping for an election sooner rather than later because we reckon Labour will have bigger issues to fix.

As Binners points out mortgage misery still hasn't peaked and we could have a proper cold winter this year which will really put the squeeze on energy bills.

The Tories comfortably won a general election after overseeing the worse levels of home repossession and negative equity in history.

I don't believe for a moment that Labour won't win the next general election, whenever it is called, but I wouldn't underestimate the resilience of the Tory core vote.

Even with mass unemployment the Tory vote can hold up.

There is nothing I would like more than to see the Tory vote collapse below that of the LibDems, but the reality is even if Rishi Sunak started walking around with his underpants on his head support for the Tories isn't going to go significantly lower than it is currently.

If things move at all it will only be up imo.

Once the Tories were proposing giving people a year's grace before being evicted, it seemed they would want to pass the parcel to the LP within a year. It's going to be dire but sadly My No Hope Party seems to be able to come up with nothing better than converting to interest-only mortgages  and extending repayment periods. Nothing about rent controls or social housing. When the election comes, I see little change but Starmer may well have a challenge managing the crisis with Reeve's Tory agenda.

I've been out for a couple of hours delivering Labour election leaflets and I returned home to find this through my door...

Note: no mention of the Tory Party and no logo's. Just a picture of the mekon-headed cockwomble pretending he supports the local football team

So, our local Tory MP (majority 100 votes) having not been seen anywhere near his constituency since he was elected in 2019 has just decided, completely out of the blue,  that he was going to go for a walkabout and a bit of door knocking? Yeah... right.

I'm surprised I didn't bump into him and I'm gutted I wasn't in when he called. That would have been an interesting conversation, starting with the question ‘why have you blocked me from all your social media, when all I did was, perfectly politely, ask you a question about Boris Johnson and his parties!”

But if this doesn't scream 'Autumn Election' then I don't know what does?

I returned home to find this through my door…

They are watching your house.

Down here in the 'Blue Wall' we Lib Dems are also already geared up we're expecting a Spring Election but TBH we're ready to go any time.

Got a few real Tory big beasts round here that we'd love to 'do a Portillo' on.

Bring it

They are watching your house

I bloody knew it Ernesto!

It’s quite telling that the Labour leaflet is a 4 page A4 with policy proposals and manifesto pledges and the Tory’s is an A5 card which says absolutely **** all! They can’t even come up with any reasons why anyone should vote for them

Ben Wallace has said he will be leaving Government in the autumn after four years as Defence Secretary.

His Wyre and Preston North constituency will disappear at the next election after boundary changes and he said he would not seek a new seat.

He joins more than 40 other Tory MPs to step down at the next election.

Mr Wallace told The Times: “I’m not standing next time.”

He confirmed he will not leave “prematurely” and force a by-election.

Does this mean the tories will call a GE this year, or is he doing a Nadine Dorries 'I'm totally resigning, but not really"?

source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ben-wallace-quit-boris-johnson-nato-b2375973.html

I think it means that he will resign as Secretary of State for Defence at the next cabinet reshuffle.

He hasn't said that he will resign as MP, just that he won't stand as a candidate in the next general election.

he is leaving the department roll not mp.

It's so he can get a job in the defense industry when they lose the next GE

Minister rolls have to be left for 2 years before you can work in the same industry so he will sit it out on the back benches.

Also puts him in the running to do a guilt free stabbing in the back of his glorious leader when the time comes

Fiver on autumn this year because they know things will be terrible through winter.
And summer comes with a feel good boost.
Sunak is out of his depth and is ready to shed his political load.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 40px; text-align: left;">But but - I can see arguments for next year too. The assumption things will be better by leaving it longer of course.
This autumn. Tories won't want a winter again. I think there ready to dump their mess.</p>

It’s quite telling that the Labour leaflet is a 4 page A4 with policy proposals

Some should let Starmer know about that then because he's busy doing **** all of substance and borrowing Tory economics.

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1680286105357230080?t=hzvMmfGp5138Gh7KUaVJuQ&s=19

We can get growth from reform, apparently. Either way right-wing solutions to right-wing problems.

It's going to be a painful G.E with so much damage and so little hope. Can't say I'm looking forward to it.

The G.E after that will be the interesting one. Sigh.

he is leaving the department roll not mp.

Just semantics, I guess, the indy didn't quote him per-se but..

Ben Wallace has said he will be leaving Government in the autumn

Surely that means he'll be standing down as an MP, as all MP's are part of the government?

But he's going to do a Nadine Dorries, though, of course.

Fiver on autumn this year

Would be nice to see, but I'm not sure the conservatives are capable of even doing that, such is the chaos.

Reckon they'll kick the can down the road for as long as they can. Money to be made from NHS contracts, pumping shit, soulless asylum centres and needless transport projects before the electorate bend them over. Why hasten the loss of income? Its's all about small boats dont'cha know? Not to mention, offshoring obscene wealth, while reminding your client media to push the Johnny Foreigner narrative, just not, ever, about about EU tax rules, Sunlit Uplands of Brexit is where it's at...

Yeah I think so, the conservatives have already crashed the car into a tree, it's written off, but, they will keep revving the engine until its run out of petrol, or the police pull them out of it.

I would go for autumn 2024 for same reason as Autumn this year (post summer, before winter) but a year later to give them another year in power so Sunak can continue to meet his pledges, conveniently forgetting they were for this year.

Surely that means he’ll be standing down as an MP, as all MP’s are part of the government?

Indeed, but the term is also used to mean the administration or executive branch of government in uk politics, that is the dominant usage in news media etc.

Kinda makes sense I guess, but it's pretty freacking wrong from a moral/ethic point of view.

It wouldn't make much sense to describe opposition MPs as being part of the government.

The terms Tory government, Labour government, coalition government, etc, refers to those in ministerial roles.

+ secretarial roles too.

When do they run out of (semi-) competent MPs to be ministers?

Some really don’t want to do it and some make Nadine look like a borderline genius.

When do they run out of (semi-) competent MPs to be ministers?

Very early on, hence Peter Mandelson making it back into government after resigning twice.

One thing that has made the current lot particularly awful was that Johnson purged pretty much all the talent from his government so that they wouldn’t be a threat to him.

When do they run out of (semi-) competent MPs to be ministers?

That ship has long since set sail

We’ve Boris to blame for that.

Insecure as he was, he only appointed those he deemed to be less intelligent than him and thus unthreatening. The rest he purged from the party

Unfortunately for the country ‘less intelligent than Boris’ is an extremely low bar

How on earth else would you end up in a situation where two of ‘The Great Offices of State’ are occupied by a pair of Morons like Suella Braverman and James Cleverly and you’ve got ministers of the caliber of Helen Whateley, a woman who looks like she struggles to put her shoes on the right feet?

One thing that has made the current lot particularly awful was that Johnson purged pretty much all the talent from his government...

The current lot was chosen by Rishi Sunak.

… once the party had been purged by Johnson

It’s slim pickings

But it’s a fair point. Even Johnson never elevated 30p Lee to a senior role

The rest he purged from the party

I am not aware of Johnson ever purging anyone from the Tory Party. Did he even withdraw the Tory whip from anyone other than for appropriate nonpolitical reasons?

The current lot was chosen by Rishi Sunak.

From those who remained after Johnson forced out loads of competent remainers.

… once the party had been purged by Johnson

Are you confusing him with Keir Starmer?

From those who remained after Johnson forced out loads of competent remainers.

No Rishi Sunak had a choice from all of the Conservative MPs in parliament.

I am not aware of Johnson ever purging anyone from the Tory Party. Did he even withdraw the Tory whip from anyone other than for appropriate nonpolitical reasons

3rd September 2019.

I don't know what you are suggesting - that Johnson kicked out a load of Tory MPs from parliament on 3rd of September 2019?

And you don't seem to be aware that Rishi Sunak was/is as committed to brexit as Johnson was/is.

Anyway it's sunny and I'm going on a bike ride now.

The whole country will be riding the crest of a resurgent economy due to the new CTTP deal where it’s like losing £4 and finding 8p 🥴

October 2024 I reckon.  Possibly November because it disadvantages Labour's feet on the ground campaigning approach

If they go this Autumn they will be wiped out - hanging on for another year plus at least gives them hope that things will stabilize.

TBH they are going to be hammered anyway so long term tactics would be to hand the barrel of steaming shit over to Labour now so they have to take the pain of sorting out.

But Sunak isn't going to want to be remembered as the PM who went early tactically and then suffered the biggest defeat by a sitting Govt of all time

I think they are geari g up, between Binners getting a visit from his MP and Jake the snake Berry suddenly holding a meet and greet in our tiny little village community centre something's afoot.

Whenever the election comes, I feel the Labour landslide is not a given. I wouldn't underestimate the power of populist politics in what is, unfortunately , a somewhat divided nation where the economic woes, more and more will be feeling, will be pinned on "small boats"etc.

The Tories will fight dirty, because, well, it worked before.

Whenever the election comes, I feel the Labour landslide is not a given. I wouldn’t underestimate the power of populist politics in what is, unfortunately , a somewhat divided nation where the economic woes, more and more will be feeling, will be pinned on “small boats”etc.

The Tories will fight dirty, because, well, it worked before.

Basically this.

It pays not to overestimate the electorate. Just ask Nigel Farage.

I think Sunak will delay until the last possible minute. He will be praying for some accidental good fortune he can point to, or most likely, some bad event he can try to convince bigots is down to some 'others'.

Its not just that, its that labour are not attactive to the voters with their pro prvitisation of the NHS being brexiteers and pro austerity.   They are not giving people a reason to vote for them

Jake the snake Berry

And huge "reporting back" leaflets claiming 3 new schools and contradictory amounts of spending on local services depending on which page you read

Christ! I had no idea that they have until January 2025 to hold an election. Thought it was May 2024 at the latest.

Still, I can feel the Tories softly shifting into election mode, with various tax promises, and I'm not sure their forecasters will be seeing enough of an upturn in 2024 to offset how ugly it could get in winter 2023/4, with inflation still above 5%, energy costs remaining high etc.

It depends at what point they reach the obvious conclusion that there is zero prospect of a win or even a hung parliament, and the only aim should be damage limitation. They may be looking for data from the Selby and Uxbridge by-elections to see if there is any bit of their core vote that is still loyal.

Its not just that, its that labour are not attactive to the voters with their pro prvitisation of the NHS being brexiteers and pro austerity. They are not giving people a reason to vote for them

I'm struggling to think of a reason to vote Labour, apart from the fact that they are not officially Tories and anything round here is a truly wasted vote

Depends in part on whether Rishi gives AF or not about the party.

Half of me wants them to FRO right now. The other half of me says I want this scumbag self serving incompetent corrupt bunch of c@#ts in charge to go the distance and take responsibility (and hopefully annihilation) for the mess they chose to make in the last 13 years

Autumn 2024 is my guess too.

Already some rumours of attention-grabbing inheritance tax cuts to shore up their core voter base. Older folk are less likely to vote in winter too.

Then it might just give enough Rishi enough time to meet his pledges, albeit late. Given current polling the tories are going to be hammered if it was held this year, so if it's a harsh winter and the economy gets even worse, then they've lost nothing, whereas if things improve slightly they can hold onto that as a sign they're in control.

I reckon this autumn is quite likely as there are clear advantages for the tories going early in that the economic pain of higher mortgages and the coming recession won't have properly kicked in, and in the event of the almost inevitable labour victory, all the pain and anger coming next year will be transferred on to the shoulders of them rather than the tories. From now on it's all about damage limitation and laying the foundations for bouncing straight back after one term in opposition, and an early election would seem to support that. Also I think Sunak is probably pissed off and bored of the job and has no wish to carry on longer than is necessary.

First clue will be some random tax cut murmur - which interestingly since Truss - Sunak hasn't dared go there and that is the only thing Tories have over Labour.

I think that will come out in desperation - although a tax cut and interest rises are a bizarre combination but I suppose it sounds like Tory posturing. Basically the economy is a total shit-heap of failed metrics and real world problems.

Stagnation appears to be the current Labour and Tory battleground.

Given the way Labour have swung right and currently meeting with business 'leaders' - it wouldn't suprise me if they join this race too. It'd be natural territory for Reeves's current Benny Hill version of Tory economics.

And both establishment parties associate tax cuts with growth which is interesting when your central bank is trying to cull demand.

Labour have had the advantage of watching the Tories make a mess of everything too.

Thick ****s.

Given the way Labour have swung right and currently meeting with business ‘leaders’

Labour is probably doing more than just meeting business leaders, I would imagine that they are actively involved in advising Starmer. One Labour candidate for an upcoming by-election is currently a Bank of England official and another one is a former publicity advisor for the CBI.

The backgrounds of Labour and Tory MPs are starting to resemble each other more and more as both parties increasingly represent the interests of the same wealthy elite.

For the few, not the many.

First clue will be some random tax cut murmur

Like the rumours from ‘anonymous sources’ in the last few days that Sunak is planning to abolish inheritance tax?

Mmm - I've not been up on that one Daz.  Will check it out.

I like how Labour keep kowtowing to trickle down - like they've not noticed it doesn't work.

Jake the snake Berry suddenly holding a meet and greet in our tiny little village community centre

He's found out where part of his constituency is, then? The ****.

He must have asked Robert Jenrick to point it out on a map

<p style="text-align: left;">One Labour candidate for an upcoming by-election is currently a Bank of England official and another one is a former publicity advisor for the CBI.</p>

The bleed of Labour into the finance sector has always been troubling for me.  The whole deregulation and BoE 'independence' - simply contributing to worse situations for working people.

That was years ago - so Christ knows what Reeves has got up her Tory sleeves. People are simply rolling over and taking it that Labour can't do anything.

I am not aware of Johnson ever purging anyone from the Tory Party. Did he even withdraw the Tory whip from anyone other than for appropriate nonpolitical reasons

Picking back up on this one - Boris hand a hand in getting his own brother shuffled out of the commons.

My heart says Autumn 2023 - the head says Autumn 2024

My heart says Autumn 2023 – the head says Autumn 2024

They are about to start summer recess until September. Then a couple of weeks back until Conference season. Which would push any election this year until pretty late on which generally doesnt suit the tories.
I wouldnt be surprised if they go for summer next year to try and reset the calendar back to the normal May/June timing.

that Johnson kicked out a load of Tory MPs from parliament on 3rd of September 2019?

Are you trolling?
Clearly he couldnt kick them out of parliament however he did withdraw the whip from 21 MPs on that date.
Of which 10 got the whip restored in October.

Picking back up on this one – Boris hand a hand in getting his own brother shuffled out of the commons.

Sorry are you seriously suggesting that Rishi Sunak is limited by who he can have in his cabinet because Boris Johnson had a whole lot of Tory MPs purged from the House of Commons? What a weird conspiracy theory.

Boris Johnson decided to back Leave a few weeks before the referendum because he was driven by personal ambitions and the direction of the wind, I doubt that Rishi Sunak's steadfast commitment to brexit is quite that shallow.

Despite a slick presentation which appears to fool a few on here Rishi Sunak is on the right of the Tory Party, he is certainly more right-wing than Boris Johnson.

Indeed Sunak emphasized his disagreement with Johnson on economic issues in his resignation letter, and it certainly wasn't because spendy boris was too right-wing.

Sunak has all the right-wing nutters on the Tory right that he could possibly want in his Cabinet, Johnson hasn't deprived him of anyone that he might have wanted.

Are you trolling?
Clearly he couldnt kick them out of parliament however he did withdraw the whip from 21 MPs on that date.
Of which 10 got the whip restored in October.

Are you trolling?

They are obviously all there for Rishi Sunak to choose to make ministers if he so wishes.

The idea that Rishi Sunak is somehow handicapped because Boris Johnson purged the Tory Party is ridiculous nonsense.

Mmm – I’ve not been up on that one Daz. Will check it out.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/15/no-10-reportedly-in-talks-about-scrapping-inheritance-tax

Sunak has all the right-wing nutters on the Tory right that he could possibly want in his Cabinet, Johnson hasn’t deprived him of anyone that he might have wanted.

It's why it's worth focussing on the politics and not the personality.

No idea why Sunak was thought of as a grown-up.

No idea why Sunak was thought of as a grown-up.

Some people on here seem to think he is on the left of the Tory Party.

Sunak focuses very hard and spends a lot of money on his image:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-focus-groups-rayner-b2084297.html

If he has managed to fool a few on here then I guess that perhaps he does stand a chance when he eventually calls a general election. I am told that the average voter isn't as clever as the average punter on here.

Autumn or Spring

Which Year? 🙂

I'd guess at Autumn 24'.

If they Call it for late 23' they'll get slaughtered, and not enough time will have passed by Spring 24' for people to forget their mounting Mortgage Debt or the amount they've just had to spend on Gas through winter.

Lil' Rishi's best hope is that Inflation drops off by next summer and that something positive turns up for him to lay claim to as good news...

Despite the narrative, most people don't care about 'the boats' the Cost of Living Crisis and having an out of touch Billionaire in No. 10 will do for the Tories...

Lil’ Rishi’s best hope is that Inflation drops off by next summer and that something positive turns up for him to lay claim to as good news…

Or Putin doing something really, really mental, causing the 'rally to the flag' effect that usually benefits the Tories

Or Putin doing something really, really mental, causing the ‘rally to the flag’ effect that usually benefits the Tories

Underpriced

I'm no fan of Sunak, and agree, he's not a centrist. However I do think he's somewhat more pragmatic than many in his party.

However the idea that he has completely free reign in who he chooses for his cabinet isn't credible. Whenever there's a reshuffle, even with a new prime minister, there are loads of political considerations, including who'll be expecting what sort of post, and what experience they bring to the table.

Yes, in theory he could choose whoever he wanted. In practice if he wasn't careful, he'd be getting a knock on the door from the men in grey suits almost before he'd even started.

Yeah but it won't be from a former MP/PM

They are obviously all there for Rishi Sunak to choose to make ministers if he so wishes.

Nope they arent. Of the 21 only 4 are still MPs after the 2019 election.
I guess in theory he could try raising them to the House of Lords but that takes time.

And why would he do that? As far as I know they were all committed Remainers and Rishi Sunak is committed to brexit. In fact Rishi Sunak has been committed to brexit far longer than even Liz Truss.

I don't believe any of the individuals who had the whip removed were kicked out of the Tory Party. The idea that Johnson had some sort of grip on the the vetting of Tories MPs in the way that Starmer now has with Labour candidates is bizarre, as is the claim that Johnson somehow influences the composition of Sunak's Cabinet.

I'll remind you that all of the current Great Offices of State, Chancellor of the Exchequer, Foreign Secretary, and Home Secretary, were chosen by Liz Truss, none of them by Boris Johnson.