Arm Holdings
 

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[Closed] Arm Holdings

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Sold!

wait a minute 7 days ago ....

Theresa said...

"A proper industrial strategy wouldn't automatically stop the sale of British firms to foreign ones, but it should be capable of stepping in to defend a sector that is as important as pharmaceuticals is to Britain."

So does ARM count as important to Britain ?

according to Hammomd, the buy out

will turn this great British company into a global phenomenon

Has no one told him that ARM chips are already used in 95% of all smartphones? 🙄
Does he really believe this, is it just desperate post Bexit spin?

I know that there has been a promise to increase staff and investment, but I wonder what the former employees of Corus/Tata steel might say about it all


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:50 am
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Last of the two Cambridge Titans, CSR was bought by Samsung recently.....

Does he really believe this, is it just desperate post Bexit spin?

Pretty much, desperate for any "good" news at the moment, whether it be in our long term interests or not.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:52 am
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🙁


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:04 am
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Bizarre decision to sell out and even more bizarre for UK Gov to let it happen.

Rachel


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:09 am
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Bizarre decision to sell out

Not really, all their share options will exercise with a buy out and at a 44% premium the whole board are made for life several times over.

One of our board members did own 7% of ARM at one point..

and even more bizarre for UK Gov to let it happen.

Agreed, but then I'd expect nothing less from the Tories. If there is an opportunity to sell something to someone foreign, they're falling over themselves to flog it.....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:17 am
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A deal made possible by the weakened pound. Expect to see more UK companies being snapped up by foreign investors in the coming months.

A shame that such a forward looking, innovative UK firm is going to overseas owners...


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:25 am
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Apparently this is what they meant by "Taking back control" 🙂


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:27 am
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I agree with the sentiment that it is a shame, but on what basis could the government of any political persuasion intervene - it wouldn't even be legal. The only way would be for the government to effectively buy up a controlling stake and effectively nationalise it...then it would be ****ed for sure.

These things are usually done for a reason. I guess something like despite the fact they'd cornered one niche segment of a very huge multi-segmented global market, it was effectively the end of the line for ARM unless it was willing to invest significantly to diversify into areas where it has nothing to offer over the competition. So if you stand still you wither and die and investing so much to diversify with no real expertise in any other area is a hugely risky prospect. So that leaves you with limited options. They made processors, but processors on their own are useless unless they're part of bigger and more complex products.

They are a widget manufacturer, and a manufacturer of only one specific type of widget where the price is getting every more squeezed as the cost of products reduces. So they're in a risky position with nothing else in their product portfolio therefore no future. It is only a matter of time until another widget manufacturer comes up with a better widget then they're heading down the tubes.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 12:10 pm
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They made processors,
They are a widget manufacturer

No, they don't. They design processors and licensed the design. Which then got put into all sorts of different chips and products. I'd not be surprised if I (and most other households) had at least a dozen things around the house that had an ARM core embedded somewhere inside them. Hugely diverse. And a real shame to see it sold.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 12:14 pm
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The market for ARM licencees continues to grow and as the IoT becomes a reality, we will see ARM based designs in more and more items.
Pretty much everything that is powered in some way will contain one of ARM licencees or its competitors chips in the near future.

With Intel seemingly stepping back from competing in the space after throwing money at it, things continue to look up.

It is not just low power CPUs either, they also licence designs for GPUs and a number of other chips.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:16 pm
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@footflaps
CSR were bought by Qualcomm this year, not Samsung...
Samsung did buy a part of CSR's business nearly 4 years ago.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:38 pm
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State control Comrades 😯

Its a public company. Softbank paid 40% more than the last public closing price.

A great success for our innovation and technology capabilities and co-operation between business and our world class and world leading University in Cambridge


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:44 pm
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@footflaps
CSR were bought by Qualcomm this year, not Samsung...
Samsung did buy a part of CSR's business nearly 4 years ago.

Yep. Only work next door as well....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:51 pm
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Will HMRC lose significantly more in corporation tax if licensing revenues are reported through Japan than would be gained from a doubling of income tax through increasing the UK workforce? I expect we'll see a bump in capital gains tax receipts as ARM employees sell vested shares.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:57 pm
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State control Comrades

Its a public company. Softbank paid 40% more than the last public closing price.

A great success for our innovation and technology capabilities and co-operation between business and our world class and world leading University in Cambridge

Would the Americans ever let China buy Intel?

The answer to that is that no they wouldn't.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:58 pm
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I expect we'll see a bump in capital gains tax receipts as ARM employees sell vested shares.

The Porsche and Bentley dealerships in Cambridge will be licking their lips in anticipation.....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 1:59 pm
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Would the Americans ever let China buy Intel?

The answer to that is that no they wouldn't.

They also won't let US Telcos buy Chinese Telecoms kit, thus protecting US Telecoms vendors. Whereas we happily let BT buy Huawei kit, which pretty much killed off Marconi as a result.

We also are in the odd position of having one our key hacking threat nations design and build most of our core internet infrastructure....

Sir Iain Lobban, the director of GCHQ, has previously said business secrets were being stolen on an ‘industrial scale’ with some firms being penetrated by foreign hackers for years at a time. Defence giant BAE Systems, which makes the Typhoon fighter jet, has been facing more than 300 cyber attacks a year, mainly from China.

Martin Sutherland, BAE’s Applied Intelligence boss, said the scheme could provide ‘a much richer set of threat information’.

BT is closely connected to the controversial Chinese firm Huawei, which for ten years has supplied much of BT’s infrastructure. Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee, which provides political oversight of GCHQ, has severely criticised BT’s deal with Huawei, saying it was ‘shocked’ that Ministers had not been informed until a year after the deal was signed.

MI5 warned ‘it would be very difficult to detect or prevent’ the Chinese state using Huawei equipment to covertly intercept communications, while GCHQ said ‘the risk of unauthorised access cannot be entirely eliminated’.

In the US, a congressional report described Huawei as ‘a threat to core national security interests’. Tory MP Mark Field, who serves on the Intelligence and Security Committee, said: ‘This is something we should definitely be thinking about. We need to know on what basis this scheme will work and how are the firms going to be presented with this information.’

A spokesman for GCHQ said: ‘We have a wealth of experience of securing the most complex and sensitive information and systems in the UK. It is exactly this expertise that will ensure any data exchanged is done so in a secure manner that doesn’t risk national security.

‘We are working with all the companies involved to ensure that the threat information is exchanged, stored and utilised in a secure manner, safe from any adversaries.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2664496/GCHQs-favourite-firms-secret-hacking-alerts-National-security-fears-raised-BTs-links-Chinese-company.html


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 2:01 pm
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Footflaps, remember what I was saying about the UK's complete and utter lack of regard for scientists and engineers in the other thread? That we are a nation of nation of upper class business managers, lawyers and bankers - there is the proof right there in your article.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 2:11 pm
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Footflaps, remember what I was saying about the UK's complete and utter lack of regard for scientists and engineers in the other thread? That we are a nation of nation of upper class business managers, lawyers and bankers - there is the proof right there in your article.

Just in my time in the UK technology industry (some 20 years) the amount of out-sourcing and off-shoring I've seen is staggering. So many great engineers having had to move into management (often without much success) in order to progress their career or simply made redundant. The drain of knowledge and skills that often took companies decades to build up, discarded as if there is no value to it. Deeply saddening.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 2:52 pm
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mr blobby - they're not really that diverse though are they? Like you say they design processors which are used in lots of different applications. But they just design processors...that's it. One widget used many times in many different applications. Like cars - we have small hatchbacks, big hatchbacks, estates, SUV's etc. but they're all essentially the same thing just tweaked. So where do ARM go from here? What's their 10 year plan to continue to grow, protect current market share and increase it? And what happens when the Chinese come up with a copied version which they pedal for half the price? Where would the value of ARM go from there. The point I'm making is that they are very good at one thing - which makes them a very risky prospect over the future - others will catch up, it is inevitable. Unless they can diversify and utilise their talents and skills to develop other new products then the future is looking bleak for them. Just like Intel. The only difference between Intel and ARM is that the technology that ARM had coincidentally happened to be more applicable to mobile devices. If the smartphone and tablet phenomenon had not taken off the way it did and everyone voted for laptops, then Intel would have won out instead of ARM.

I agree on the sentiment of it - it's a great shame. But at the end of the day they're being bought out for their expertise and knowledge. Clearly the board know that they have nowhere to go from here and the value of the company is only going one way.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:05 pm
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Whereas we happily let BT buy Huawei kit, which pretty much killed off Marconi as a result.

marconi's goose was cooked when they took the decision to pile in to a market that became rapidly over saturated with kit from competing vendors, and that cast list is long.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:06 pm
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I'm sorry wobilscott, but I don't see how china could develop vastly cheaper chips, when ARM designs are manufactured in China anyway. The cost difference is going to be the pay of several hundred engineers - thats it.

Isn't the 10 year plan for ARM to go into the "internet of things"?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:10 pm
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So where do ARM go from here?

The beauty of their model is that they don't really need to do that much to grow the market. New segment appears (e.g. pretty much anything you want to make "smarter") that needs some sort of embedded CPU, it's almost guaranteed that they'll use one of the many existing chips built around an ARM core, or if they need something new developed that it'll licence the ARM core as a starting point.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:18 pm
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I'm sorry wobilscott, but I don't see how china could develop vastly cheaper chips, when ARM designs are manufactured in China anyway.

Arm don't manufacture anything, they license chip designs (basically a data file) which get incorporated in other people's chips and made all over the place.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:18 pm
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So hypothetically, because of their business model if 200 or so Design Engineers, technicians and Scientists....Geniuses Left ARM tomorrow and set up a rival company, they could at least take some of the Market off the newly acquired ARM ?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:38 pm
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Given time (decades) I suppose, but the familiarity and ubiquity of the ARM core gives it a very strong position in the market. Plenty of tools available for it. Engineers know how to build on it. Loads of manufacturers already using it.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:43 pm
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Plus all the IPR for Risc architectures is owned by ARM...


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 3:48 pm
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Doubt it'll move from Cambridge either the clever people that work in these areas seem to stay in the area. They might travel half way around the world to study at Cambridge but they don't then take their brains back home and start companies there. I do think it's s shame that we are getting to a point where every industry will have a handful of major owners. Facebook have the monopoly on social media, Walmart on food, etc etc. It makes the world a very very bland place.

Myself I prefererred the city pre silicon fen, but that's partly as I feel I've been priced out of my home. As above Bentley will be very busy lol!


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 4:04 pm
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ARM won't move Imo, certainly not in medium term (5-10 years). What will happen is more Japanese engineers will come here.

We live in an open society, we can't possibly stop people buying assets they wish to. To block sales of such companies would be illegal anyway as far as I am aware, certainly under UK and EU law. There is no real argument its against national interest or a security or monopoly type issue


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 4:24 pm
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I thought we didn't want any more of those foreigners coming over here. Especially experts, the British public doesn't like experts 🙂

Japanese don't work abroad that much, it's a fairly simple asset buy-up from a cash-rich and ideas-poor company IMO. Looks like it's going to make me a fair bit of money (by luck/judgement I have shares) but I don't think it's really a good thing for the country overall. We'll have to wait and see if the "investment" really turns up...promises sometimes turn out to be hollow...


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 5:11 pm
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Never see the Germans flogging stuff off.... just saying


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 5:28 pm
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We are just one big ebay listing it appears


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 5:31 pm
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As any Farmer will tell you no one stays rich by selling assets....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 5:34 pm
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Bizarre decision to sell out

Why Rach? Seems like Softbank are paying a crazy price (60x earnings) at a time when core market is becoming saturated

and even more bizarre for UK Gov to let it happen.

What's it got to do with them?

As above, weaker pound is likely to accelerate this trend


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 5:42 pm
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Evidence that their core market is becoming saturated THM?

ARM won't move Imo, certainly not in medium term (5-10 years). What will happen is more Japanese engineers will come here.

As opposed to nurturing talent from Oxbridge? I don't see why you are so keen to "take back control" from the EU - but think nothing of British industry being at the mercy of acquisitions.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:05 pm
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when core market is becoming saturated

Mobile phones yes, IoT who knows, could be massive, could be a damp squib...


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:06 pm
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The Germans never flog off stuff because their companies are large diverse companies with more than one product line and interests in many industries. Look at Siemens for example. They do the buying, not the selling. However the British company I work for has, in the last 15 years, bought largeish foreign companies. But they were all companies that were not very diversified and we caught them on at the top of an R&D spend cycle where a company is most exposed, in order to bolster and grow our own product line. And despite that we're still a relatively small fish in a vast ocean and our future is never certain.

My comment about China is nothing to do with Manufacturing. It's to do with IP. China are currently raiding every companies IT systems and stealing IP and making copies of products and the global legal system seems completely and utterly useless in dealing with the situation. It is industrial espionage on a national scale. So what if ARM's IP is stolen by China and they flood the market with cheaper copies of ARM technology. ARM can try to take the nation of China to court, but they won't win, or China will stretch it out until ARM is bled dry and cannot continue to challenge and it would be too late anyway, and then ARM's one and only product line is hugely de-valued and then what for the future of ARM and it's shareholders? They are massively exposed. The shareholders knew it, so have sold up while the companies value is still riding high. However now it is part of a larger and more diverse company ARM will have all the backing it needs, new routes to market and alot more R&D resources at it's disposal and will probably thrive much longer into the future than it would being a highly innovative, plucky little specialist company punching above its weight.

I agree that it is a great shame and I just hope that the brains stay in the UK and go on to create something else, but the UK has never been very good at building large diverse companies - it's the British disease - we talk ourselves down and are afraid of success - we seem to get so far then just give up. We have nothing even on a fraction of the scale of a GE or a Siemens. ARM was an innovative company - the problem with innovation is that it is expensive and despite all the ARM chips sold a good chunk of ARM's expenditure would have been R&D and the problem with that is that if your next product isn't as successful as you hoped then your company is all of a sudden in trouble. It's a risky business even without the Chinese stealing your crown jewels. Big diverse companies balance their high spend R&D spend by their cheaper commoditised (not sure that's a real word) products - e.g. GE. The saying about GE is that they put one cent on the price of a light bulb and they fund a new jet engine.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:08 pm
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Their selling?

15% CAGR in sales unsustainable....look at their customers?

Other than indirect effect on £ what does this have to do with Brexit?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:08 pm
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Mobile phones yes, IoT who knows, could be massive, could be a damp squib...

10 quid says it ends up like the sell off of the gold reserves....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:08 pm
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Never see the Germans flogging stuff off.

That may be because the UK media don't tend to cover German M&A in any depth. For example, Midea (Chinese) just bought Kuka, one of Germany's biggest industrial robotics companies, although tbf the German government does seem to have put up a bit of a fight, whereas to a non-expert in M&A the Arm takeover does look a bit like the Kraft Cadbury takeover to me; promises that won't be kept due to some mysterious "change in circumstances".


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:12 pm
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What similarity to gold?

Nothing to do with government
Different type of asset
Sale not a low point
Very large premium to current price

Another one for the annals of M&A delivering value (cough)?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:13 pm
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Will HMRC lose significantly more in corporation tax if licensing revenues are reported through Japan than would be gained from a doubling of income tax through increasing the UK workforce?

No because the IP is still owned by the UK company.

The thing is Softbank have paid a very full price, this will enable the sellers, which undoubtedly will include many non UK parties to redeploy the funds in areas which they believe have better growth prospects. As long as we continue to produce good people, much will be invested here.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:20 pm
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Wasn't the Kuka deal a 25% stake? Not a full buyout?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:21 pm
 Rio
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Reached 76.4% on Friday - [url= http://www.dw.com/en/midea-attains-three-fourths-stake-in-kuka/a-19402426 ]http://www.dw.com/en/midea-attains-three-fourths-stake-in-kuka/a-19402426[/url].


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:24 pm
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No because the IP is still owned by the UK company.

The thing is Softbank have paid a very full price, this will enable the sellers, which undoubtedly will include many non UK parties to redeploy the funds in areas which they believe have better growth prospects. As long as we continue to produce good people, much will be invested here.

Indeed.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:26 pm
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Companies like ARM are a once in a lifetime Behemoth for the UK, yes they may re-invest in UK start ups (less so post Brexit), but you don't get many ARMs in a lifetime.....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:30 pm
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Reached 76.4% on Friday - http://www.dw.com/en/midea-attains-three-fourths-stake-in-kuka/a-19402426.

What's really infuriating about Chinese M&A's is that China is nowhere near as open to the west for such takeovers - and Chinese tech companies are massively subsidized by the Chinese state through various ways.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:38 pm
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Many SOEs destory huge amounts of value - why would you want to invest in them?

China is over-investing in surplus capacity that will produce a lot of zombie assets in time. Very poor use of resources.

Oddly and co-incidently, Mrs THM has just popped in to remind me that she bought ARM on a H Lansdown tip a few months ago - can almost forgive Peter Hargreaves funding Brexit. Nice surprise as I didn't know she had bought them!! 🙂 only 1.4% offer above close so probably not worth holding on to?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:42 pm
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New (Lego) Porsche for you then THM!

I don't see the government angle at all - what does it have to do with the state and, given how hawkush Hammond is, then his statements come at little surprise.

UK and US corporate behaviour is very explicitly about returning shareholder value, with an exit always at the top of that list. And bearing in mind the original IPO was the first exit, this deal hardly comes as a surprise.

You don't hear much about German M&A because so many businesses there are privately held with a different approach to value return. In fact the biggest PITA deal in my old life was acting for a German company buying a UK/US/French business - they might have been good engineers but they knew nothing about M&A!


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 6:59 pm
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Adults should avoid twitter - the urge to say something is usually wrong


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 7:08 pm
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Sad day to see them go, even if they claim they'll keep HQ in Cambridge and increase staff (heard this from plenty of take overs and then situation changes).

Owned ARM based products back since they were Acorn RISC Machines. Good old Acorn A5000 with an ARM3 and now the house is full of kit with ARM chips.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 7:20 pm
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THM, if ARM are onto a losing gain, explain this

Meanwhile, contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, a customer of ARM, cut its 2015 outlook for industry growth last week, partly on sluggish demand in China.

But shares in the Cambridge-based company rose more than 8 percent on Wednesday as worries about any impact of a wider slowdown on ARM were cast aside. The stock topped the gainers in the FTSE 100 index and the rise put it on track for its best day for two and half years.

Analysts at Investec hailed ARM's strong growth in royalties, and said that while licensing was slightly lower than expected, it was not a material miss.

"We see ARM as a standout long-term quality play, with materially underpinned royalty value ahead," they said.

ARM'S processor royalty revenue increased 37 percent year-on-year to $185.6 million, as its new technology won share in an overall market that saw revenue decline by 2 percent in the corresponding period.

Sure, they may need to diversify - but it does look like they design the best products on the market and can apply their chips to a wide range of products outside of smartphones and TV's.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 9:56 pm
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They see it is a good long term play at the then price - takeover is 40% premium - different conclusion.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:03 pm
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Interesting to read the opinions regarding this sale of people bemoaning "little Englanders" on other threads.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:39 pm
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Read this over on an investments board

"This is like someone coming a long and giving you 20 times the value of your house" No it is not. It is like a Japanese person buying your house for a 40% premium based on valuation in £, with Yen that have risen sharply in value against pound when house prices are going up 10% pa. Not a good deal IMO.

In the last 5 years (since 17 Jul 2011) SP has gone up 110%. The devaluing of pound means that there is upward pressure on the SP. If there was no takeover the SP could easily go up 150% in the next 5 years. Institutional investors, with their short term view, will jump at a 40%+ premium but in the long term the takeover is bad for investors. Shareholders of ARM shares would have been off if it had remained independent. On the other hand SoftBank shareholders will do very well out of the deal over the next 5 years I predict, which is why SoftBank have made bid. I can only assume ARM management want a quick profit or feel that they cannot raise enough capital to grow ARM as fast as SoftBank can. The majority of future profits from ARM will go to Japan instead of UK which is bad for the UK.

Interesting to read the opinions regarding this sale of people bemoaning "little Englanders" on other threads.

The EU is fairly protectionist - I have little faith in the British government not to allow every company, institution and piece of infrastructure to be sold to make a quick buck over sustainable long term growth.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:44 pm
 igm
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The start of the U.K. firesale? Vultures circling for anything worth having at the knockdown rates our currency collapse causes?


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:49 pm
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£24Bn is an absolute bargain!

Considering Facebook bought WhatsApp! for $19Bn only a year ago....


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 10:50 pm
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Tom, surely you don't need to be talked through why the share price of a company whose revenues are largely in $ and coats have large £ element has been strong recently. If you do, then avoid investing in equities.

Take the money, re-invest in IoT and make another great return. Thats what good entrepreneurs do.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:01 pm
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£24Bn is an absolute bargain!

Considering Facebook bought WhatsApp! for $19Bn only a year ago....

Everything is relative - but at 60 times earnings you are expecting very significant revenue growth.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:02 pm
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Tom, surely you don't need to be talked through why the share price of a company whose revenues are largely in $ and coats have large £ element has been strong recently. If you do, then avoid investing in equities.

Take the money, re-invest in IoT and make another great return. Thats what good entrepreneurs do.

I think I get your point THM, but respectfully - that post was a little muddled.

Of course though, you're right - the founder of a startup I worked for, sold out to the Americans and then used the money to setup right next door and create a very similar but logical evolution of the product he just sold to the now slightly pissed Americans.


 
Posted : 18/07/2016 11:19 pm
 igm
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From the Times 20/7/16

ARM purchase offer £17/share

ARM predicted share value if targets met £22/share by 2020

But market uncertainty making that risky.

I think that plus the low £ high Yen probably explains what happened.

Firesale


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 8:25 am
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Firesale

I am an asset manager with 35 years of experience and I have to say you don't have faintest idea what you are talking about. None. Zero. Your post is a very lame attempt to make a political point.

The sale has nothing at all to do with the Government, there is no legal basis on which they could block the sale. The recent move in the £/¥ is small versus the premium being paid. Company directors have a fiduciary to best serve the company including the shareholders. The share price today reflects an estimate of future growth, so thise future predictions are already "priced in" for Softbank to pay a premium above that they are making even greater growth assumptions.

As an aside the ex founder of Autonomy was on Newsnight, when HP bought his company they paid a premium and basically lost the lot as they overpaid massively. Tech aquisitions generally take a very brave soul and some herioic assumptions about the future. It really is like roulette.


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 8:52 am
 igm
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Did I suggest it had anything to do with government or government blocking it?

I've been involved with M&A a little myself, including advising people you'll have heard of on occasion.

But I haven't been an asset manager for about 15 years now. Poor engineer me.

And yes £22 predictions of the future value need a pinch of salt - but people do have this habit of believing them.


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 8:56 am
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Well there must be a lot of stupid people out there igm including the senior managers of ARM if it was a firesale

Anyway you can do your own maths as an engineer - assume you are correct and its worth £22 in 2020, what's the NPV today? Not far off current price (depending on discount factor obviously). So hard to call a firesale....

Alternatively is a 6-7% CAGR over the period attractive or not based on the risk factors?

But remember there are many thousands of people analysing ARM on a daily basis, include the management team. Until the deal, the equilibrium price was around £12 - the top of the range over the past three years (£8-12). So why were all the smart people not buying the shares like crazy if it was a firesale?????

Mrs THM bought early this year at £9 ish and sold at £16.75 - not a bad return but we shall see if she's a mug or a shrewd investor. I am backing the latter. Just wish she had told me too!!


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 8:57 am
 igm
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THM - she's neither. If she's happy with £17 then that's all that matters. Perhaps it will rise perhaps fall - but I assume we won't know as it won't be listed (could be wrong on that - we were a UK company listed in Holland for a bit because the takeover didn't take the last 5% of shares - odd things happen).

Also I'd assume £22 2020 is a real calculation so the NPV would be £22. If it's nominal you've got a point. Write to the Times and complain about their journalism.


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:02 am
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Mrs THM bought early this year at £9 ish and sold at £16.75 - not a bad return

The Tory dream: it doesn't matter if the most successful tech company in the UK is sold off to a Japanese multinational, just so long as you make a profit eh?

what are we selling next?


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:05 am
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Her decision is easier

Assume deal takes place at some point at £17 - you get £17 at that point
Sell yesterday at £16.75 - lock in significant return but give up 1.4% in the future.

Risk 1 - deal doesnt happen, locking in and giving up looks smart - very smat if it goes back <£12
Risk 2- another bid comes in at £19 - you give up 13%. Hmmm, not so smart

But all in all NPV of 22 in 2020 is not far away from sale price, so I conclude she did the right thing. Work out what the true value of a company is - buy at a discount, sell at a premium, ignore the market noise.

p.s. I very much doubt the £22 is an NPV calculation based on my experience of reading brokers reports!!


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:12 am
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Graham - how do you think companies attract investors in the first place. Why was ARM listed?

What if SoftBank achieves the synergies and growth that it expects - is the outcome better or worse? Jaguar cars as an example recovered under John Eagan in the 80s but was unable to finance expansion and was stuck as a one-product, one-market car. Foreign ownership and capital bought investment, a diversified product range and secured jobs. Which would you prefer?

Anyway, we all have a choice. Think about the opportunities that these developments create or watch passively while moaning on the internet.....you decide....goes off to see how/if banks are undervalued after recent falls


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:16 am
 igm
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We always work in real. You'd still NPV that for time value but you'd ignore any inflation effects. Stable industry low discount? Hey maybe you're right. Never able to run a DCF in my head.

And without a spreadsheet I wouldn't do the DCF - but then we're not a finance house and we don't look to con (ooh highly pejorative) the people putting the money up. Because he employs us.

He's got a decent track record to be fair.


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:19 am
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Real and PV are different things

And yes £22 predictions of the [b]future value[/b] need a pinch of salt - but people do have this habit of believing them.

You said it yourself. £22 is a future price. What is the PV now? That is the question...

Who is "he" out of interest?


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:22 am
 igm
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Who he? Not in public. Email me if you really care.

Glad you spotted my error just as I was correcting it.

Never claimed to be smart 😉


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:27 am
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Dont worry - juts wondered if you worked for ARM!!

I just did a quick and dirty NPV calculation - my preference is to work out the discount factor implied by the two prices. I can then decide whether that compensates me sufficiently for the risk. Of course with QE messing up the reference rate that is a little harder these days.

But implied discount factor is approx 5-6% (to £22). Not bad but I can get 8% return elsewhere. Hence time to sell and invest elsewhere IMO. But that's by-the-by if the actual upside is only £17. My point remains - if the FV in 2020 is £22 and the current price today (PV) is £17, that is not really a firesale.


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:34 am
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If the FV in 2020 was really £22 then the share price would not have been half that a few days ago...


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:46 am
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So who is correct then?

The thousands of investors who determine the PV to be £12 or the acquirer who is prepared to pay £17?

Does SoftBank ownership make ARM a better or worse company?


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 9:50 am
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There's no such thing as a "correct" price. New information comes along, the market reacts, and the price is the point at which willing buyers and sellers coincide. That the shares are currently worth just under £17 is presumably a reflection of the market's confidence that Son will come up with the money, coupled to the unlikeliness that anyone else will better it.

I don't know if softbank ownership will be good or bad for ARM. Not really my problem to think about it. My current problem is more to do with CGT thresholds and spousal transfers, which is a nice one to have but unusual this early in the financial year 🙂


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 10:00 am
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There's no such thing as a "correct" price. New information comes along, the market reacts, and the price is the point at which willing buyers and sellers coincide.

True, like beauty, the correct (sic) price is in the eye of the beholder!

That the shares are currently worth just under £17 is presumably a reflection of the market's confidence that Son will come up with the money, coupled to the unlikeliness that anyone else will better it.

Minus a small discount for execution risk

My current problem is more to do with CGT thresholds and spousal transfers, which is a nice one to have but unusual this early in the financial year

😀


 
Posted : 20/07/2016 10:04 am
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[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/03/08/softbank-sell-25pc-arm-giant-tech-fund/ ]SoftBank sell 25% of ARM[/url]

So the sell on starts....


 
Posted : 02/04/2017 2:17 pm
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They are selling the stake into their own fund. Why not ?


 
Posted : 02/04/2017 3:30 pm
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