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Does this sound too close to the bone?
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at Manchester University, describes this archetypical voter as male, 50 years old, without a university degree but with a decent job in the private sector and, crucially, a homeowner with a mortgage. This person almost certainly voted leave, Ford added, explaining Labour’s insistence that it will not take the UK back into the single market.
If so, take a bow, you are this election cycle's swing voter...
describes this archetypical voter as male
Without wishing to put a stick in Rob Ford's research, I'm going to bet that his statistical model is at least 50% incorrect...
EDIT: But in all seriousness, yes, sadly it describes why Labour is so reluctant to admit to Brexit being such a total bit of a mess. At 42, even my unapologetically right wing peers mostly voted to remain in the EU FFS! This is largely an age problem as has been pointed out many times over... The older you were when you voted, the more likely you were to vote Brexit, and the more likely you are to be dead now too coincidentally...
What this country needs right now is clarity and vision from its opposition leadership... Starmer is not only myopic, but looking in the wrong ****ing direction!
Bit lazy, most around 50 went through education when 15-25% went on to university, not the 50% plus now who do uni or uni level courses, and a lot of those are the skilled workers or people who have been at companies for 30 years so should in a reasonably decent job, and I doubt most have paid off their mortgage just yet.
Just seems like a similar type of linking you’d get off a fortune teller 😂
This person almost certainly voted leave,
Erm, nope, and I don't qualify (yet) as I'm not 50 (yet)...
Did I mention the 'yet' bit???
52, white male, degree, local government officer, voted stay and no to independence.
Bit lazy, most around 50 went through education when 15-25% went on to university
I thought it was only about 10% back in the 80s when I went....
Maybe 15%..
As someone who went, I am obviously excluded from Labour's target demographic....
16% in 1988 when I went, not a man though so clearly not target demographic 😆
Lets be honest, the description is basically white van man, might as well add reads the sun and thinks cyclists should pay road tax
If that’s the target for winning the election anyone expecting a house price crash (rather than stagnation/dip) is in for a bit more of a wait.
It’s basically not far off being me, I even have a white van.
And cyclists have started annoying me on the coastal road too…
46, male, no degree, good job in private sector, home owner with mortgage. Voted remain!
I'll probably be voting green this time.
Oh no wait, “decent job”, I don’t think that’s me after all. Voted remain too, although I do have zero party loyalty when voting.
I've voted lib dem for a while now, but only because I'm in Scotland so voting labour is no use, and I'd not vote SNP as I'm not for independence, and I'd never ever vote Tory.
How can the architypical voter be male when more women than men vote?
Yeah more people aren't university educated, 12% for my cohort. And a lot of middle-aged people do have a mortgage.
But as for that 50-year-old voter voting leave - 56% does not equal "almost certainly in my book.
Decent job? Not if the people on this forum are representative, many are over qualified for what they do or their talents are under exploited depending on how you look at it. Some can't get jobs they are qualified for, others have jacked in "good jobs" because in fact they were just stressful and futile (I did).
In short bollocks being spouted on the most important points. And now that's even further from how the 50 year old would vote today if given a chance.
As for what Labour needs to do to win an election. Given the current shambles I think a remit of "not **** up big time" would suffice for a win. However, I'm not sure they are capable of that. Starmer really pisses me off and I'm a woke snowflake lefty - who happens to be a europhile who compares back pedalling with official policy which ****s it somewhat. I'll vote LibDem if ever they let me vote in a "foreign constituency".
In that age group 57% voted leave
Is that almost certainly?
I’d love to know what % are starting to wonder if they were right. Even the day after the vote I was meeting people who were horrified by what they’d done. And that was well before it became apparently quite what a disaster it’s been
If they are 50 now, they were 44 in 2016.
44 years olds with university level education most certainly did not vote majority leave unless you are being very geographically specific.
Tick nearly all those boxes (well, 48 now), ardent remainder though
This is pathetic from Labour, their advisers must be terrible. Don't quite fit their demographic but a lifetime Labour voter here who may spoil their ballot on their failure to grow a backbone and campaign on reversing Brexit.
50(ish), no degree, mortgage, vehemently anti-Brexit as are all my similar friends, waiting for a left wing government so they’ve got me wrong.
55, no degree. no mortgage, no white van, decent job and prefer cyclists to motorists !
Voted leave and would do again if it was for a true leave and not this half arse crap we have now.
Never voted labour and defo never vote green so its Reform next time for me.
i know that won't go down well on here but that's life.
55, no degree. no mortgage, no white van, decent job and prefer cyclists to motorists !
Voted leave and would do again.
Out of interest how are things better for leaving the EU?
ampthill - sorry i have edited my original post to reflect that we have not really left.
I thought leaving would be a change for the better and maybe would have been if done properly.
But we will never know.
😂😂😂 "We wiil never know"
Fair enough @Rando29
Shame really. Which I’m a big believer in the EU but would genuinely feel better if some one could tell me how their life is better for having left
if it was for a true leave and not this half arse crap we have now.
Interesting, the Brexiters I've listened to think it's gone further than they were promised; not expecting to be limited to 90 days in Shengen, having trouble buying from the EU and trade collapsing due to real borders being put in place. No cake or bread either.
I cannot fathom how to quote do replies to particular posts as i thought clicking reply would add the text !!
Ampthill - i admit life is not better for having partially left but i also think that is influenced by the last few years and the Ukraine war (and a bunch of lying / selfish ^&*$% MP's).
Hmm, this "decent job" - what kinda earnings as this was another dividing line.
55, no degree. no mortgage, no white van, decent job and prefer cyclists to motorists !
Voted leave and would do again if it was for a true leave and not this half arse crap we have now.
Never voted labour and defo never vote green so its Reform next time for me.Haven't you yet realised that there's no cake?
And "true leave" - top satire mate!
Early 40s, degree, professional role, mortgage, wife, kids; unsurprisingly (being late 30s at the time) I wasn't a brexit supporter.
A fair chunk of my peers are between my age and early 60s and I'd say voting distribution is an even spread Tory/Lab wise, but far fewer own up to being Brexiteers (at least these days)... I don't think I'm quite the key demographic as Labour can probably rely on my sort for the next couple of years
It'll be interesting to see how all you mid Gen-X-ers nudge things over the next couple of years while you're the ones politicians need to woo, and ultimately how short your memories are when it comes time to vote.
Seems to describe a lot of my builder mates. Except they have more than one house.
Education was a massive predictor of leaviness. I’m in that cohort and a first generation university graduate. About 1/6 of my age group, or 1/12 males will have a degree. So why is this surprising?
48.5
Mortgage
Has Degree
Voted Remain
So this dude is as useful as Mystic Meg
Before the Labour hating, remember this is a 'Labour insider' saying something, then the Guardian have then used a description by a University Professor of this 'archetypal person'.
"Interesting, the Brexiters I’ve listened to think it’s gone further than they were promised; not expecting to be limited to 90 days in Shengen, having trouble buying from the EU and trade collapsing due to real borders being put in place. No cake or bread either."
Would they be French resident ex-pats?
My ex-missus lives in France and many of the ex-pats she meets voted Leave...
53, degree, no mortgage, work in public sector, archetypal remain voter then.
63
No mortgage (anymore)
No degree
Voted remain
This professor chap ought to open his eyes a bit wider.
Party insiders say they are being ruthless about targeting exactly the kind of voters they believe will put them back into power, homing in on people who previously lost faith with Labour but have been personally affected by the spike in interest rates caused by Liz Truss’ “mini-budget”.
Doesn't seem that outrageous as an idea TBH.
Labour strategists say they plan to reach these voters largely through local television and radio. But the party has also revamped its digital team under the aegis of digital director, Tom Lillywhite, and is planning a series of digital advertisements to appeal specifically to this group.
Lillywhite is recruiting an army of digital operatives who are being told to find local advocates for Labour who might be better positioned to win back the trust of people like middle-aged mortgage man than the party’s own MPs are.
Could it be they've learned the most important lesson from Brexit? That FB can reach the middle-aged about as well as the mail does with boomers...
. Insult redacted.
Would they be French resident ex-pats?
The "expats" in France I know either didn't have a vote due to the 15 year rule or voted remain. None are expats now, they've all obtained French nationality since 2016.
The Brexiters I've met either in the UK or in Spain. In Spain it was one Tory expat, one Lexiter on holiday, others on holiday - politics unkown apart from Brexit. I've met a hell of a lot more vocal remainers from the UK in Spain, perhaps because they travel to the kind of places I do rather than Costa beaches. The most bizarre was the Tory expat Brexiter whose buisness had become highly complicated due to Brexit but said he'd still vote for it - in fact he was no longer able to be an expat because he had missed deadlines and was subject to the 90 day rule.
64.
Male.
Mortgage.
Grammar School.
No degree.
Remainer.
**** the stats.
The professor isn't describing the typical voter. He's describing the most typical swing voter, which is the target for labour if they want to win.
There are a few people I work with, who automatically assumed I voted Leave because of my age. When one of them said to me,”don’t know why these remainders keep moaning,Phil, as we won didn’t we”, he was shocked when I said I wanted to stay.
In our little group of 6 drinking buddies, 3 voted remain, 3 voted leave, which statistically fits. I think Mr Ford has had too much sherry.
(EDIT - 2 of those leave voters now have said they wish they voted remain)
I was wondering why Starmer was sticking to a hard brexit
He’s describing the most typical swing voter, which is the target for labour if they want to win
.....and therein lies the problem. Appeasing that lot isn't going to go far enough in resolving the rot this country now faces.
53, degree, paid off the mortgage 20 years ago.
Current Labour Party are a bit too centralist for me.
Loved JC's manifestos, hated the sniff of the sixth form common room.
I rate Clive Lewis, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Emily Thornberry and of course, Angela Rayner.
Remainer.
And there lies the problem. A brexit utopia was promised that was never remotely achievable, too many to pacify and no deal would be supported by the majority that voted leave. In my eyes, brexit was a vote for a new contract that a select few negotiated. How many people would sign acontract without knowing the contents?
Starmer seems convinced this statistical group is the key to No10. Problem is there are 3 types of lies; lies,damn lies and statistics. Currently I don't even think it would matter, the tories seem destined to implode within 6 months.
Note: how do you reply to posts?
I think a cycling (arguable I know) forum is basically going to self-select remainers, so there's hardly much point in us all saying that archetype doesn't describe us.
53, no degree, white male, even have a Vito.
Committed remainer.
With recent polling don’t believe Labour actually need to pander to the thick racist halfwits anymore so getting a bit cheesed off with the strategy.
male, 50 years old, without a university degree but with a decent job in the private sector and, crucially, a homeowner with a mortgage. This person almost certainly voted leave
That's me. But I didn't vote.
I was wondering why Starmer was sticking to a hard brexit
Poring over focus groups, polling and tactics can only take you so far, but I understand why he's doing it. There is no point coming out against Brexit 18 months before an election and giving the tories a solid attack point to use to regain lost ground. At the moment this voter group will be far more likely to support Labour because of the economic circumstances, and Labour needs to focus on that.
Can't pretend it isn't disheartening to watch an opposition leader not prepared to speak the obvious truth about Brexit - but he can rely on the majority of votes from people who voted remain, I suspect, who else are we going to vote for?
I suppose I should cling to the hope that if elected with a sufficient majority, he can then set his sights on closer relationships with Europe because the number of people still backing Brexit is dwindling every day.
yes, no, no, yes, yes, certainly bloody didn't.
Ian Lavery, the MP for the north-eastern seat of Wansbeck, said: “Lots of Labour-supporting Brexit voters at the last election thought that our position on Europe was basically telling them that we thought they were wrong. We need to win back trust with exactly those people.”
These people are utter *
He wants to win their trust by lying to them. Great.
don’t believe Labour actually need to pander to the thick racist halfwits anymore so getting a bit cheesed off with the strategy.
Exactly.
but he can rely on the majority of votes from people who voted remain, I suspect, who else are we going to vote for?
Interesting viewpoint which starmer clearly shares. But I don't agree. My [ wasted] vote will be going LibDem again. There is no way I will give my vote to Labour whilst they pander to *
Voted leave and would do again if it was for a true leave and not this half arse crap we have now.
Eh? We have a hard Brexit. You won.
The calculation for Labour is that many remainers, however disappointed they may be with a lack of rejoin/anti Brexit will still vote labour regardless as being preferable to the Torys.
It's a bit like how mandleson viewed the working class - they've nowhere else to go.
It is a risk (remainers may go green, lib dem), but the prize is 50/mortgage/no uni man may vote for Labour next time.
In many seats centerist dad types have few viable options beyond 'wasting' their vote on a 3rd or 4th party
It’s a bit like how mandleson viewed the working class – they’ve nowhere else to go.
They did go elsewhere...
@ransos yes, they did go elsewhere that's why I said it was a risk.
But it took until the indy ref in Scotland and Brexit ref in England to shift those voters to the SNP/Johnson's conservatives
Perhaps they think it's a risk worth taking and that hard-firm remainers are boxed in. But it may not work.
I think the current labour coalition will hold in 2024 as more of an anti Tory vote, but I think it will splinter after that.
43. Mortgage paid off in September this year. Scot. Remainer. Can't vote labour. Will continue to vote SNP and pursue independence.
…..and therein lies the problem. Appeasing that lot isn’t going to go far enough in resolving the rot this country now faces.
It's what got us in this mess in the first place.
Not happy with the Labour alternative, but I fear I'm going to have to avoid the trap of letting my desire for perfect ruin the chance of better.
At some point,a grown up is going to have to put the facts on the table and point out what Brexit has actually cost us and start talking about solving those problems.
I rate Clive Lewis, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Emily Thornberry and of course, Angela Rayner
Can I add Jess Phillips?
Hiya,
For me the article in the Guardian, sums it all up. The focus on the Brex5h1t voters is rubbish.
What about those that voted remain and who's conviction to still be in the EU remains. It destroyed my working life, so personally I couldn't give a flying F about those that chose isolation and division.
The focus on the Grumps is what is damaging this country and I personally couldn't care less about them, they didn't care about me when they voted so why should I care for their opinions.
JeZ
What about those that voted remain and who’s conviction to still be in the EU remains.
Because statistically you're not a swing voter. You've already decided (one way or the other) and there's not much point trying to get you to change your mind.
Hiya,
For me the article in the Guardian, sums it all up. The focus on the Brex5h1t voters is rubbish.
What about those that voted remain and who’s conviction to still be in the EU remains
They think you will vote Labour regardless, that you are in the bag already. They will therefore chase the votes of Brexit types
54
No education to speak of (x2 low grade CSE’s!!😬)
Mortgage paid off.
Voted remain as I had no major conviction either way - remain mainly based on the old saying ‘it’s better to be on the inside pissing out, than the outside pissing in’.
But no idea who to vote for next time - other than ‘we’re not Tory’, Labour haven’t put forward any coherant plans to get us out of the problems we are in.
I think a cycling (arguable I know) forum is basically going to self-select remainers, so there’s hardly much point in us all saying that archetype doesn’t describe us.
Exactly, the responses are just confirming it is a largely remain, left leaning group.
I don't fit the archetype either as 54, no degree, good job, mortgage. As has been pointed out, back in the time I was 18 it was not assumed you would go to University just because and people tended to go for an actual reason/career at the end of it rather than something to do or because even low level jobs now require a degree.
However, Starmers only approach to winning an election is to get the swing voters to swing to Labour as that is how it works. Putting out a very radical agenda is not going to make any difference as the hard tories will vote tory whatever and could never bring themselves to vote Labour anymore that I could ever vote tory.
But no idea who to vote for next time – other than ‘we’re not Tory’, Labour haven’t put forward any coherant plans to get us out of the problems we are in.
"Some" of that will be because if the ideas poll well, there's enough time for the Conservatives to pinch the plan leaving Labour with nothing for the election.
Just because you voted remain doesn’t mean you’re not a swing voter. When Labour swings to the left not everyone follows them.
50, staunchly remain, degree, decent private sector job, mortgage.
Lifelong Conservative voter, but won't ever do it again. I even wrote to my local MP to let her know why (which I have never done before either). Surprisingly I got a response.
He has my profile largely wrong, but I hope to be part of the movement that removes this shameful, incompetent, self-serving bunch a bloody nose in 2 years. I know that a vote for Labour will personally cost me more, but the greater good and all that.
54, no university education, not worked for a while as no real need to, paid the mortgage off a few years ago and voted remain as i really felt that was the best thing to do (and still do)
Never have and never will vote tory, though I'm not tied to any other way of voting and will go with what i feel at the time.
Living in Scotland but not made my mind up about independence up here yet. Like the chance of getting back into Europe bit but unsure about other stuff.
As for what Labour needs to do to win an election. Given the current shambles I think a remit of “not * up big time” would suffice for a win. However, I’m not sure they are capable of that. Starmer really pisses me off and I’m a woke snowflake lefty – who happens to be a europhile who compares back pedalling with official policy which * it somewhat. I’ll vote LibDem if ever they let me vote in a “foreign constituency”.
Earlier this year you went running off to the mods claiming i was purposefully trying to avoid the swear filter because i was using * instead of actual letters. You had me banned from the forum for a week. It would be nice if, in being so aggressive in your morality, you actually stuck to it.
Because statistically you’re not a swing voter. You’ve already decided (one way or the other) and there’s not much point trying to get you to change your mind.
Untrue. I used to vote Labour religiously, but since they have started courting the **** vote I have switched to Lib Dem. How much more of a swing voter is it possible to be?
I think the way our constituency boundaries are set up forces them to focus on swing voters. Most left leaning people are concentrated in small pockets e.g. every city in England (the other countries of the UK are obviously different). Labour can't win just by getting a higher proportion of the vote in those constituencies. Would be interesting to know what kind of areas all the above "middle aged mortgage man except I voted remain" live in - maybe I'm wrong!
They think you will vote Labour regardless, that you are in the bag already. They will therefore chase the votes of Brexit types
It's the same thinking as when they used to weigh rather than count working class votes. It might work for one election, but ultimately it's a dead end.
Untrue.
True - statistically you're not a swing voter. At least according to their analysis. Individuals will, of course, be different, but (at least in theory) not enough to make a difference.
55
No degree
Small business owner (16 employees)
Mortgage
Very much a remainer
I've thought for a while now it would be better for UK politics if those who are economically liberal and socially progressive, centerist and remain/rejoin orientated supported what is prima facie their natural home which to me is lib dem
We’ll never get real political change in this country until we get proportional representation.
As to the thread - the title is close, the description is not.
It's not just boundaries it's the entire system. It why we have had such a long conservative run and why we have poor choice, a lot of people vote against not for.
These people are utter *
And this is the other reason. Someone who disagrees with you is not necessarily a *. If you want change you need to understand people's motivation and work with them. If you say all Tories voters are ****s then say everyone that votes leave is a **** then it will be practically impossible for anyone but the mutilated mess of a conservative party to get in. You don't have to appease people but you have to listen to them and not just yell at them and call them names like a stroppy teenager. This is race to the bottom politics and allows all this culture war crap.
It's a shame there appears to be something about getting a mortgage that makes a man dead inside.
True – statistically you’re not a swing voter. At least according to their analysis. Individuals will, of course, be different, but (at least in theory) not enough to make a difference.
Now I'm confused can you elaborate a bit please?
Hey,
The problem is really the conservatives I don't agree with the stance of labour but if I vote green I give the election to the conservatives. I don't like this policy at all to be honest but the prospect of having another 5 years of the Tory's is enough to make me vote tactically, just to get rid of them.
BR
Jerry
52, paid mortgage, degree, work as a builder, waiting for Irish citizenship to come through, remainer.
Know Lots of leavers who all have reasons for voting to leave Europe. They'd never vote Starmer no matter how many focus groups whisper in his ear. There's too much casual bigotry in politics on all social media platforms including here. Everyone shouting but very few listening to opinions they don't like or understanding why people have them.