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A stock market crash is caused by two things: a dramatic drop in stock prices and panic. Here’s how it works:
Lifted directly from
https://www.ramseysolutions.com/retirement/stock-market-crash
Still trying to work out the end game for our Tunnocky friend.
TT - not a real person.
This will be the biggest crash we have ever seen in history and house prices will plummet up to 50%.
You’ve heard it here first folks.
Sshhh! You don't want to cause a panic!
What will this do to teacakes?
Teacakes will be selling like hot cakes!
@tony_t - are these words yours?
Easily done if you are
n’ta longtermer.
Ftfy. I forget this is a bike from regularly and didn’t realise you had to be mad into cycling to participate in the chat section.
Better get my bike out the garage and do some miles before I’m booted!
Those of us old enough to know how to suck eggs now know enough about food hygiene not to.
Whether your prefered method is based on first-year economics or crystal ball gazing a rise in interest rates in keeping with current inflation would stop not just the housing market but the whole economy dead.
Between runaway inflation and stagflation I suspect the Tories will go with inflation. Housing will still be a good long term hedge in that case. You might get lucky with sell and rent for some short term period but you'll need better than a crystal ball to time that, I suggest a time machine trip or ten.
If they are your words, how come I'm finding some of your answers are copied and pasted from elsewhere?
For example:
https://www.ramseysolutions.com/retirement/stock-market-crash
A stock market crash is caused by two things: a dramatic drop in stock prices and panic. Here’s how it works: Stocks are small shares of a company, and investors who buy them make a profit when the value of their stock goes up. The value and the price of those stocks are based on how well investors believe the company will do. So, if they think the company they’re invested in is headed for hard times, they sell that stock in an attempt to get out before the value drops.
I'm not sure I've ever brought a hot cake, also most modern cakes have some form or sugar based icing, therefore cake being hot would melt said icing. This doesn't sound like a good future.
I can't really see a crash in housing.. A drop/corrective dip /corrective stagnation maybe.
But to put it into perspective, say there's a drop of 10%..big drop! Panic!
but not really a drop if value has been going up 5% plus for the last five years.
A big issue for the BTL crowd /wannabe property magnates who borrow against existing equity on houses they have existing mortgages on..
That equity might suddenly shrink so much that they end up in hot water.
Not really an issue for the average home owner who buys a house to live in long term.
Has our teacake friend gone quiet?
He's been posting incessantly a load of copied, part copy and edited posts since joining the forum to start this thread.
What's the end game here?
- promote some business or other?
- troll?
- attention seeker?
Very odd first thread and to copy/copy and edit answers.
It’s simple it’s one of 2 things
TT is Russian and searched the interweb, found STW is full of lefties and come for support
Or
TT is Russian and this is propaganda to tell us all how western capitalist ways are failing
Failing that TT needs to do his internet research better
In 1989, Winger released the song "Headed for a Heartbreak", taken from their self-titled album, "Winger".
Not many people associate it with the state of the UK housing market 2022-5.
Thank you.
I'm also noting that a user with same username has been posting on Money saving expert forums, and elsewhere, in the last week, the same threads. This has led to 'discussion' about the poster and validity there.
Didn't we have someone doing this exact thing with being anti Vax
And also the answer to any chemicals being baking powder and vinegar ?
M-O fits.
I'm sure it's just that STW is a forum with very high traffic so will attract people/businesses/bots trying to seed a specific message (ie. the housing market is going to collapse / 5G causes cancer), for whatever reason. I'm sure Mumsnet and other fora experience the same thing. It's not worth wasting time over.
Another forum I read has just instituted a rule where you need to have a minimum post count in on-topic forums before you can post in their politics forum. Purely to stop people from only signing up to post in the politics forum who have zero interest in the prime topic of the forum.
This is a perfect example of the same happening here. I’d suggest a minimum post count in the bike forum before you can post in chat. It’s one thing having someone with an interest in bikes posting an off-topic thread because it interests them but very different from someone signing up purely to post off-topic stuff.
This thread is like me going to the Gardener’s World forum and signing up purely to post about cave diving.
Re watched the Big Short at the weekend, I don’t think we are in the same state as 2008, the affordability critera have been much more stringent since then. It’s on Amazon prime if that still available in Russia
I’m not sure I’ve ever brought a hot cake, also most modern cakes have some form or sugar based icing, therefore cake being hot would melt said icing. This doesn’t sound like a good future.
What about donuts, they are excellent hot.
But are donuts cakes ?, certainly they're not biscuits.
I’d suggest a minimum post count in the bike forum before you can post in chat.
**** off. We don't need to introduce new wackjobs to the bike forum. There are enough there already.
It’s a shame you don’t have a bike OP.
However, I applaud your choice of forum ID, as it is far superior snack when toasted to the similar but often disappointing hot cross bun.
However, I applaud your choice of forum ID, as it is far superior snack when toasted to the similar but often disappointing hot cross bun.
Why would you toast these?
In what way is a hot cross bun 'disappointing' when toasted?!
More about the crumpet myself!
When interest rates go +10% then the tide will be out and those who have over borrowed will be exposed.
+1 re Spesh tyres.... never again!
So you are saying the government will let inflation run away?
So this will push even more people into poverty. Personally, I would go with rising interest rates because there seem to be plenty of people who took out mortgages in the last few years bragging about lenders stress testing for rates of around 6-7%.
I wonder what they have to say about rising rates?
Oi, Tony, are you still here and copying from other websites?
Have you been booted off some other forums in the last week?
It is highly possible that tony_teacakes is actually an AI forum bot.
Trained to search the internet for provocative text and re-hash it in threads like this.
I suggest that it has been unleashed on STW forum as it is an ideal training ground for such a bot. Each reply we type causes it to level up, each argument we offer it gets eaten up, machine-learnt and then spat back at us.
Pretty soon, we will have many tony_teacakes on the bike forum too. They will post gibberish about head angles, start hundreds of threads on tyre choice and brag incessantly about Strava KOM's.
And their owners in Moscow, Washington, Tehran, wherever they may be, will rub their hands in glee at our engagements with them.
And they will marvel how these bots brought chaos to what was previously a wise and sane forum.
this will push even more people into poverty.
Hehe.. Have you been observing the governments actions within the last few years?
Seems the government are making a concerted effort to do just that!
I have seen the movie The Big Short.
You are right StainyPants this is different from 2008. This time around we have rampant inflation, 200 billion of personal debt here in the UK which is the highest ever and that does not include mortgages. War in Ukraine, global supply chain problems, gas & oil prices through the roof, and a slowing economy.
You say the affordability criteria have been much more stringent since 2008. So if you took a mortgage in the last couple of years did the lenders factor in we were going to have rampant inflation?
🥱
@tony_teacake, please would you answer some of the questions and accusations, before you try to engage us in more diversionary questions?
Who is Tony teacake and what does he want from us?
what does he want from us?
Perhaps he doesn't know how to make a toasted sandwich, and is desperate to seek advice on cheese/pickle ratios?
We are here to help.
Could be a scammer fishing for victims although I suspect that folk would have mentioned if they'd been DMed behind the scenes with offers of splendid investment opportunities.
Getting tedious now. Tammy Cupcake, share a little about yourself so we know you are genuine.
Stop feeding robot Tony, and close the thread?
Cut one tony_teacakes down, and two more grow in its place.
Leave the thread open for the evening shift to pick up.
Ooooo… cheese and pickle toasty for tea! Good plan. This thread has finally delivered something real.
The absolute mistake is that the BoE fix things using one interest rate lever.
It's utter nonsense.
That's when you get utter idiot Bailey. telling everyone to go easy on wages.
The top end of earners have done okay thank-you very much but when it comes to the lower earners they can't have a raise.
Hypocrite.
Wages growth has been suppressed for years for the low earners. Market forces dictate their wages stay low for the system to function.
It's not a system - it's parasitic, and it needs to change.
I think inflation will start to subside when we move into recession, then we will have another set of problems.
The point of government money during the pandemic was to hold off the economy totally collapsing and it mostly worked - but then Sunak and co didn't allow for opening up needing support. They presumed the private sector would just take up the slack.
This is where we are now. Just in time supply chains and lack of government investment is killing everything.
They will only do something at the very last moment - around October the government will probably do something through the skin of their teeth.
(I think we are desperate now.)
There's no excuse other than lack of imagination and the correct political will - both of which we sorely lack.
So what do you think will happen with property prices in the near future?
Dunno, don’t care. My house is worth considerably more than I paid for it, £200,000 against £29,000, I have absolutely no plan to ever sell in order to move, as I’m perfectly happy living where I am.
Colour me indifferent.
Ia there anything on page 2 and 3 worth reading?
Anyone get called a Nazi?
Ia there anything on page 2 and 3 worth reading
Nothing you can't read elsewhere if you want to browse the websites the posts were copied from.
Colour me indifferent.
So you don't care about how prices make life hard for other people and adversely affect the fabric of society by driving in equality? Right, ok.
The absolute mistake is that the BoE fix things using one interest rate lever.
It’s utter nonsense.
@rone I agree.. BoE desperately keeping interest rates low is going to be be a problem.
They will have to go up, how fast and how quick.. Is another story
So you don’t care about how prices make life hard for other people and adversely affect the fabric of society by driving in equality? Right, ok.
But the the question asked / replied to was “So what do you think will happen with property prices in the near future?” not what you have wittered on about. I’m not really fussed about movement in house prices in the near future either.
Thank you for your reply and this is why I post.
Personally, I think house prices have gone insane in the last couple of years and there seem to be a lot of people who think this is ok. All it is doing is making the gap between the rich and poor even bigger.
I think we should talk about this openly because what is going on now will affect the generations before us.
what is going on now will affect the generations before us.
but they're all dead!
Bit if a programming error there
The generations before us? They’re mostly dead mate. What do you think is the ideal length for a bottle opener?
Sorry meant to say after us.
Bottle opener roughly about 4 inches
Bot-tastic! Embarrassed to say I got taken in by Tammy Cupcake on page 1. It's like first generation CGI, seemed ace at the time but rubbish looking back. This stuff is only going to get more sophisticated and convincing though.
What do you think is the ideal length for a bottle opener?
3 feet for the novelty factor
I am not reading all the stuff in the middle - But I am going with tony teacakes being one of the regulars on here who predicts this with boring regularity. I can't remember who it is.
Supply and demand is the simplest thing to understand. The primary driver of house prices is demand. People want to live in houses/flats/apartments etc. Unless people suddenly don't wnat to live in buildings I cannot see a big crash. Maybe they will flatline or go down a bit, but if you are holding on to your money waiting for the big crash so you can dive in and get a cheap house, you are deluded.
In the late 80's/early 90's crash which was the last significant downtrend, negitve equities were 20% loss, sure there were outliers of 50% or more, but only in tiny pockets.
Money is cheap to borrow, and if you get done over by rising interest most people will hold as long as possible, ie low supply. No govt will raise interest rates like they did in the late 80's.
If you wanted a crash, triple housebuilding, or more. If people had huge choice of where to live then prices would dive. Right now, there is no supply and a lot of demand.
I am no expert but I don't see anyway out other than let it burns in the pocket ...
Personally, I think house prices have gone insane in the last couple of years and there seem to be a lot of people who think this is ok.
Yes, the increase is much more evident in the South than the North, but the increase is also creeping onto the North. It is not okay but the problem is there is no way to contain it.
All it is doing is making the gap between the rich and poor even bigger.
Yes, but how are we going to prevent that if there is no law to say that there should be limitation in property investment? Bear in mind the govt needs money flowing into the country and let the money sit there. Property investment is one way ...
I think we should talk about this openly because what is going on now will affect the generations before us.
Unless, there is intervention it is like run away train until it runs out steam by itself. Trying to intervene means putting investors off ...
p/s: look at China's recent property collapse
I do bottle opener lengths using the metric system..
Personally, I think house prices have gone insane in the last couple of years and there seem to be a lot of people who think this is ok.
That's where your position falls down.
If you look at the average wage vs the average house price, you'll see it's blindingly obvious that buying a house in the 1960s was essentially free, whereas now you need 2 people on a good wage to club together, just to get your foot into the property market.
Let's not forgot high inflation could be with us for many years which will lead to many people just buying the necessities to survive. This will cause havoc in the real economy and many companies will go to the wall.
So tell me 5plusn8, what happens when people don't have the resources anymore to pay for these overpriced properties, will they pull the money out from thin air?
chewkw and tony_teacake on the same thread. Makes you think.
chewkw and tony_teacake on the same thread. Makes you think.
I don't have multiple properties as investment so nothing to do with me but I am paying a lot just to rent ... LOL!
Let’s not forgot high inflation could be with us for many years which will lead to many people just buying the necessities to survive.
It will be with us for a while. Hopefully not too long but judging from the petrol price and the recent supermarket limiting purchase of basic necessity like cooking oil. It will hit hard for many. The situation is all created by people ...
That’s it, I’m out. Don’t feed the Tunnock!
So tell me 5plusn8, what happens when people don’t have the resources anymore to pay for these overpriced properties, will they pull the money out from thin air?
And to finally get to the crux of this.
What do you suggest ?.
So tell me 5plusn8, what happens when people don’t have the resources anymore to pay for these overpriced properties, will they pull the money out from thin air?
Most probably people will cut their losses and sell it at reduced price ... and the domino effect starts. That's what happened in China's property market ... One minute the property is sold at £200K for a small apartment the next minute no one wants to buy it even at £40k.
But I don't think that will happen in the UK but I am certain some form of impact will come from the current petrol price increase and cooking oil limitation.
However, you can substitute that with palm oil because we have plenty in SE Asia but more forest will be cut down to produce it. The choice is climate change or trying to survive in an inflated economy ...
A friend told me he paid 20% mortgage interest in the 80s! He just told me the rate people are paying now is nothing. He doesn't care.
Wouldn't worry, Putin is going to sort it out once and for all....
Well as has happened over the last 20 years, we get a mix of some wage inflation, lower interest rates, changing of the rules to make it easier to get mortgages (2004 = 5 or more income ratio) etc. So affordability remains. The bankers will ensure this. As I said, the worst is flatline or small decrease (ie 2007).
Don't get me wrong, I think its all mad, but the govt and bankers are all in this and I am sure there will not be a huge crash as TT expects.
Stuck in a house with Panorama-worthy Neighbours From Hell due to negative equity in the late 80s & early 90s, we took in lodgers as we desperately needed to make up the shortfall to get out. We went away for the weekend and I never did find out QUITE what they did but every crevice in the bloody kitchen seemed to have crumbs of Spam in...
I am not an AI but would be interested to know what Mr teacake is running!
The most mysterious thing about this thread is someone mentioned that there is a bike forum.
It's it time for this yet?
I am not an AI
Or so you think.
Tony Teacake is also posting the same stuff on here:
https://www.avforums.com/threads/are-we-heading-for-the-biggest-housing-crash-in-history.2410179/
They're all going nuts for it....
Will it still call itself TonyTeacake if it becomes self-aware?
Alternative fact:T-800 is short for Tea Cake-800
Tony Teacake is also posting the same stuff on here:
https://www.avforums.com/threads/are-we-heading-for-the-biggest-housing-crash-in-history.2410179/
They’re all going nuts for it….
Hey! How come those guys have cool pictures next to their usernames and we don't?
Talk about rip-off Britain!
^ I'm now suspicious of some of our usual posters who are continuing to argue / engage with the thread.
Are the bots living among us?
нет, не я
Unfortunately, I don’t have a bike.
You’ve come to the right place.