FB Marketplace always has ads for Trek from a scammer. I've reported it but Facebook seem to like them.
treksk.com
Like thisun
I mean I bought a T5.1 for 19 grand during lockdown thinking there'd be no holidays for ages and just sold it for just under 30k, so people are still spanking the dollar left right and centre.
Similarly, the MTB I built up for £600 for Mrs Continuity in lockdown just sold for £1200. At the same time, we replaced it with a 7 grand giant for similar money.
I think its just that the variance has jumped up.
No, its a genuine seller. Hubbys old road bike, not been used in 12 months, so could do with a service. It looks an older model, it has white double spoked bontrager wheels, non disc, triple on the front. Full ultegra groupset.
10 speed dinosaur or 11 speed disc brake?
Too slow but it could be 10 speed
they’ll just have a house that’s possibly worth less than they paid for it. Annoying, but not ruinous. Financial ruin only comes if they need to sell, and the sale proceeds won’t cover the outstanding mortgage
Negative equity? If the value of the property is now less than the value of the loan secured against it they're ****ed.
Bought my T6 campervan for £46k in July 2020 and sold it in July this year for £51k with 13,000 miles on the clock. (I got it in October 2020 so really only had it for the 1 Spring and Summer hence the low miles). Only sold it because of divorce otherwise I’d have kept it, cracking bit of kit.
I think with larger items like campervans it’s a bigger picture than just lockdown purchases. The lack of availability of the base van seems to be keeping the prices high, or at least according to the company who purchased my van.
I don’t understand how peleton got such a high valuation in the first place. Wasn’t it obvious that their growth was essentially lockdown driven?
TBH didn’t all the online food delivery companies still manage to all make a loss with a captive market.
Theses companies they inhabit a weird place 🙂
Negative equity? If the value of the property is now less than the value of the loan secured against it they’re ****.
Only if they need to sell. Otherwise, assuming that they can still afford the mortgage payments, they can stay in living in the house so they're 'okay' (by which I mean not ruined, clearly it would still be a pretty shitty situation)
And what happens when it’s remortgage time and their debt is significantly higher than the value of the property they want to secure it against?
You're right, yes, they will struggle to remortgage, I missed that. But, again, if they're remortgaging because they've come to the end of a fixed term, if they can afford the payments of the current provider's Standard Variable Rate that they will have defaulted to, then they are in the 'shitty situation but okay' boat.
If they can't afford the SVR payments, there is every chance that they may be able to work something out with the current lender to alleviate the problem a bit (like extending the term). Believe it or not, mortgage lenders really want to afford defaults and kicking people out of their houses. Let's call that 'really shitty, but just about okay'.
I'm not downplaying the impact of a big fall in house prices, and there will be people who, for a combination of reasons, will be screwed, and that is awful. What I'm trying to say is that, contrary to the post that suggested it, it's not automatically ruinous for everyone with a mortgage.
I’ve had a van / camper itch for last few months. A dubster of some sort being top of the list but they are ridiculously priced as we all know. I’ve considered the JDM alternatives such as alphard / elgrand etc.
anyway I’m going to bide my time to see if prices do drop.
So my point / question : are there any price tracking services out there for cars / vans / campers.
Working in IT I can see there’s various web scraping (of auto trader) services and pieces of code around. GitHub etc. not exactly my area but i could get some code working myself to store in a db and run the reports from there. Even excel can scrape data out of websites. Just wondering what the best method to trend the prices would be.
Anyone doing similar?
I don’t understand how peleton got such a high valuation in the first place. Wasn’t it obvious that their growth was essentially lockdown driven?
Emperors new clothes innit? Watch the WeWork documentary if you want to see how clever marketing and hype can lead to insane valuations, which then inevitably goes tits up.
It’s just amazing that supposedly shrewd and intelligent people can’t see the obvious flaw in it all. In the case of WeWork, as one investor (who wouldn’t touch them with a barge pole) put it ‘at the end of the day, they’re just renting out office space’
It’s worth watching anyway just to see the cult-like weirdness of the people that set it up
I wonder how the lease car market is / will fair? Can you take a lease back early?
Martin Lewis has been saying for years that everyone driving round in expensive PCP cars, they can just about afford, is the next sub-prime mortgage collapse just waiting to happen.
Looks like he’s about to be proved right. Once the shit really hits the fan this winter, and we all need to find 6 grand for our heating bills, there’s going be an awful lot of people who can no longer afford the payments on that shiney Audi/BMW on the drive.
A good time to be a repo man, I’d imagine
A good time to be a repo man, I’d imagine
or good if you fancy a bargain in a few months time.
Agree the long predicted collapse of PCP is on the way; I know of some organisations - including one county council - who actively encouraged employees to 'benefit' from salary sacrifice schemes for car 'ownership'.
As Warren Buffet said...it's only when the tide goes out you see who's been swimming naked.
Auction houses could be looking at a chunky increase in liquidation sales.
Negative equity? If the value of the property is now less than the value of the loan secured against it they’re ****
No they are not. Our first property lost ~20%. It's deeply upsetting, reshaped my financial thinking and home ownership plans, but it is survivable for most.
As Warren Buffet said…it’s only when the tide goes out you see who’s been swimming naked.
Wait a minute, I thought he was the one used to encourage folk onto PCP with "don't buy what you can rent"?
Don't think that's one of Buffet's - and I doubt he's ever expressed an opinion about PCP!
People keep flinging it about on here, seen it a few times. The correct quote is "You should only buy or invest in appreciating assets. lease or rent depreciating assets".
The correct quote is “You should only buy or invest in appreciating assets. lease or rent depreciating assets”
Or more to the point: “If it flies, floats or ****s, rent it.”
Beat me to it!🤣🤣
The bloke selling the bike he bought during lockdown that I saw earlier this week had a bit of a surprise. I had to tell him that it wasn’t his bike and I would be taking my bike home with me. I Hope that the surplus of cheaper bikes on FB marketplace will put off theiving scum from taking other peoples kit! I suspect the financial pressure on some will cause the opposite though.
I don’t understand how peleton got such a high valuation in the first place. Wasn’t it obvious that their growth was essentially lockdown driven?
Yes and no - pre-covid they had healthy growth and very high subscription retention rates, which should translate to significantly higher user numbers post-lockdown. (Say a 100 people sign up per week pre-lockdown, and the retention rate is 85%. During lockdown 1000 people sign up, but you anticipate a 50% retention rate... the numbers are still in your favour). But they messed up on lead times for production and how long the lockdown would last, and now they have an excess amount of stock and employees.
Wrong thread!
expensive PCP cars, they can just about afford, is the next sub-prime mortgage collapse just waiting to happen.
my interpretation of that (from Martin and others) was that the entire lease/pcp etc industry is built around cheap borrowing and low interest rates.
The cars were merely a vehicle (pun intended) for people to sign up for borrowing five figures sums over 3-5 years and repaying them at significantly higher interest rates than the companies could borrow that money at.
High inflation and interest rates will really hurt those companies that didn’t (couldn’t) plan for it as people are fixed on their repayment plan for however many years.
As a knock on effect the car industry has adapted to meet the needs of a market that mainly buys via these schemes, which has resulted in higher prices which may become a problem in the future if there aren’t lots of cheap credit places to help the public buy them.
How many used that opportunity to build up an emergency fund and how many bought toys they didn’t need and in hindsight can’t really afford.
TBH, unless you were earning serious cash, and banking all of your excess, that "emergency fund" isn't going to last long given the price increases we're seeing!
I know - that rule of thumb of having 3-6 months of daily living expenses in a rainy day fund has been blown out of the water somewhat!
How many used that opportunity to build up an emergency fund and how many bought toys they didn’t need and in hindsight can’t really afford.
Would you like some condescension with your sanctimony?
Not just staycation purchases like SUPS & vans that are found to be surplus to requirements. The Dogs Trust & Battersea are both inundated with requests to re home unwanted pets. The rush to get a lockdown pooch by some (about 3 million families bought pets over the last 2yrs) & the realities & costs of pet ownership are becoming painfully apparent to many.
I'd be looking to rehome the kids before the dog 😀
At £40pm for food and £94pm insurance he's not cheap but cheaper to run than the kids and a lot less hassle.
He's been with us two years now and he's going nowhere, he was the father in laws dog but he died of a heart attack in 2020.
As for having 3-6 months of daily living expenses in a rainy day fund - it's always been sound advice but...
some have no spare money after covering the bare essentials; some didn't see the point - something else will come along or I'll live on whatever I can get from the state; some weren't willing to change their lifestyle by reducing or eliminating discretionary (frivolous?) spending.
That sound advice is simultaneously both more relevant than ever and more difficult than ever to achieve.
It's definitely a shit situation and unlikely to improve significantly.
It's not meant to be sanctimonious but it is a comment on our over consumerist society, that when opportunity presented to build a war chest, many didn't and possibly regret it now.
he’s not cheap but cheaper to run than the kids and a lot less hassle.
Kids a better long term prospect once investment matures. The rule of 'flies, floats, ****s or fluffy then rent it' applies.
Best thing about buying a van during lockdown is you can live in it when your mortgage becomes unaffordable...
Looks like he’s about to be proved right. Once the shit really hits the fan this winter, and we all need to find 6 grand for our heating bills, there’s going be an awful lot of people who can no longer afford the payments on that shiney Audi/BMW on the drive.
Already happening - there's a host of more doom-laden articles in the likes of the Daily Wail (which I won't link to) and various auto-industry magazines about people looking for smaller / cheaper cars and dealers changing their forecourt stock away from luxury models to more basic vehicles.
I do wonder how some of the people who were buying big fancy SUVs a couple of years ago can afford to pay the fuel bill now.
crazy - charge the fuel to credit card until limit reached or default on payments.
For some, running costs may be affordable but for most there will be hard choices to be made - what will they give up?
At £40pm for food and £94pm insurance he’s not cheap but cheaper to run than the kids and a lot less hassle.
He’s been with us two years now and he’s going nowhere, he was the father in laws dog but he died of a heart attack in 2020.
How does it cost £40/month to feed a dead dog?
£30 to Doris Stokes for using the portal; £10 for food.
A good time to be a repo man, I’d imagine
I'm not so sure...
This got me thinking about leasing depreciating assets.
Anyone lease their mountain bike?
I can't see that being a go-er. Anyone leasing them out would have to assume a value of £0 at the end of the term, so it'd effectively be the same as a low rate loan.
Starting to see some prices come down in the 2nd sports car market. In fact you do wonder if its about to implode back to pre pandemic levels.
Some cars have dropped £2k off their screen prices in a week on £32k cars, however these are cars that would have been £25k tops pre pandemic
It might just be readjustment to normal prices, and people who bought their toys through lockdown get nervous about huge negative equity, and cost of living
This got me thinking about leasing depreciating assets.
Anyone lease their mountain bike?
Terms have never been favourable for mtb leasing like they are with cars. However, emtb's are so expensive and Ive not wanted to purchase due to the warranty and high cost of the bikes IMO they are unnaturally high, however I guess everyone still does want an emtb, although now some very very popular ones can be seen creeping in to sales with 5-10% off
Can't see it working with MTBs, but I was thinking maybe a dog leasing/subscription service could have (four) legs.
Can’t see it working with MTBs, but I was thinking maybe a dog leasing/subscription service could have (four) legs.
A met a guy once who had tried advertising his dog in Loot rather than pay for kennels. "A dog IS just for Christmas, you can rent mine while I go on holiday"
This got me thinking about leasing depreciating assets.
My sister & BiL looked into leasing their VW Transport camper but it worked out that they would need to have it out a minimum of 30 weeks to make it worthwhile and that would obviously be centred around school holidays which would be the exact times they wanted to use it!
Plus the insurance and admin and while they could see the financial sense of it, the hassle wasn't worth it.
I’ve had a van / camper itch for last few months. A dubster of some sort being top of the list but they are ridiculously priced as we all know. I’ve considered the JDM alternatives such as alphard / elgrand etc.
anyway I’m going to bide my time to see if prices do drop.
So my point / question : are there any price tracking services out there for cars / vans / campers.
Working in IT I can see there’s various web scraping (of auto trader) services and pieces of code around. GitHub etc. not exactly my area but i could get some code working myself to store in a db and run the reports from there. Even excel can scrape data out of websites. Just wondering what the best method to trend the prices would be.
Anyone doing similar?
I'm just tracking them manually, you see the same vehicle come up across multiple sites - facebook/gumtree and ebay.
tracking two T5s at the moment, both failed to sell using the ebay auction at 13k/18k and the owners have now relisted as classifieds at 18k/25k.
I'm seeing very little movement, mostly because buyers aren't jumping, and sellers looking early summer prices. Plenty of stuff weeks and weeks old on facebook/gumtree, or being relisted to keep the advert fresh
tracking two T5s at the moment, both failed to sell using the ebay auction at 13k/18k and the owners have now relisted as classifieds at 18k/25k.
theres no doubt that a price correction is due but I think theres a long wait before theres 'bargains'. Stuff isnt selling at people's asking price but I expect for the most part people will list but not sell and wait rather than sell for less than they want to. Theres nothing unusually in campers sitting about on the market at the end of the season. No doubt some will get into a position where they have to sell but its hard to the tell the difference in a listing between someone who wants to sell and someone who needs to. For the most part people who've paid what are obviously inflated prices for stuff like campers in the past few years did so knowing they were over valued and that they'd likely make a sizeable loss when they sold - but they bought anyway so presumably felt financially comfortable doing so.
Just bumping this and wondering if anyone's seen any movement in prices? We've had a caravan for a few years, but recently sold it when it got damp and was not economic to repair. We're saving up for a new caravan but wondering about trying a campervan for a while - it's a different thing as the caravan is great if you're in one place for a week or so, but a campervan may allow us to have more quick overnight stays somewhere. If we're still at a point where a 15 year old clapped-out banger with 150,000 miles on the click is going for stupid money we'll carry on wating and saving for a new (to us) caravan, but if prices are more reasonable then I'll have a look - part of the issue though is I don't know what "reasonable" prices are for campervans
Just for the complete picture I was thinking of something like a Ford Transit conversion (or Mercedes, VW etc if the scene tax is not too high) with a short wheelbase to make it more practical to park, as it would likely have to be our "daily driver" (even though we can go a week or more without using car, but I digress). What kind of things should I be looking at in terms of fitted equipment and facilities, and in mechanical terms? Has this been covered on a previous thread / is it worth a new thresad specifically about what to look for when buying a campervan?
Interesting that this has popped up again. Re my post above about sports car prices. They appear to be on the up again 🙁
If we’re still at a point where a 15 year old clapped-out banger with 150,000 miles on the click is going for stupid money
If we are still at that point, then excellent 🙂
Seriously though, if you want a campervan chat, or even a borrow for a weekend to see how you get on with it, let me know. If nothing else, it'll give me an excuse to give it a good hoovering out.
it would likely have to be our “daily driver” (even though we can go a week or more without using car, but I digress)
Looking at your nattily titled strava feed I think you should go bigger than that. We've got a LWB T5 and it's just too small and irritating to use properly for trips away. After having used a proper caravan you'll find the constant roof popping, bed making and lack of shower/toilet a complete pita.
Fair enough you are two instead of four but I don't think you should compromise so much on the comfort angle just to make it easier for your once a month grocery run ?
Appreciate that this is a rather sweeping statement but feed it into the mix
We’ve got a LWB T5 and it’s just too small and irritating to use properly for trips away.
For compulsory STW contrariness purposes, as the owner of a SWB T5 that me and her spent six months living in around Europe, I disagree.
After having used a proper caravan you’ll find the constant roof popping, bed making and lack of shower/toilet a complete pita.
This is a fair consideration though. A camper is basically a tin tent, and not a massive one at that.
Re my post above about sports car prices. They appear to be on the up again 🙁
I think the shortage/long lead time of new cars is impacting the 2nd hand market. I've been thinking of changing mine but just cba'd at the moment as I'd have to spend loads to get something better.
Just for the complete picture I was thinking of something like a Ford Transit conversion (or Mercedes, VW etc if the scene tax is not too high) with a short wheelbase to make it more practical to park, as it would likely have to be our “daily driver” (even though we can go a week or more without using car, but I digress). What kind of things should I be looking at in terms of fitted equipment and facilities, and in mechanical terms? Has this been covered on a previous thread / is it worth a new thresad specifically about what to look for when buying a campervan?
I have one, albeit very basic, one coming up for sale in mid-late summer...
I sold a set of concept2 ergs at the peak of the silly prices, and bought new again 6 months ago when the supply chain had settled down. And while I sold at 500 more than the new price I bought at when replacing them, I now wish I had kept and used them for that 18 months.
