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and there is a thread on here about how sales of stuff have gone through the floor. Would this be that much touted second dip in the recession rearing its ugly head?
I reckon so. Nice work ConDems.
I honestly think that some people will be happier if there is a double dip (and a proper one, not just a bit of bouncing around the zero line by a couple of .1s of %s) and that things do go to crap just so that they can carry on moaning about the government and tell everyone how insightfull and clever they are 🙄
I reckon so. Nice work ConDems.
They've only been here for four months. How could they possibly have caused something that was "much touted" months earlier? You really should refrain from discussing politics/economics; you're not helping.
I would suggest that the two of you should refrain from [s]discussing[/s] playing politics as you're not helping.
We're not in a recession.
Don't like being disagreed with SBZ?
Don't see how any double dip can be entirely the fault of a 4 month old government.
There are loads of people who want to buy houses and have good jobs and decent deposits. Its the twunts at the banks who are being far, far to cautious that are killing the housing market.
Couldnt care less if folk disagree with me.
Also, nowhere did I say it was entirely the fault of the ConDems. Merely pointed out that their policies of slash and burn dont really appear to be helping yet.
Double dip is the (almost) inevitable result of dealing with the debt we have. Some say we shouldn't deal with it because of this but the Tories are grabbing the bull by the horns...not always a sensible action!
I'm with Clubber on this. Some folk just can't get by without moaning all the time: The sort of person who, if you gave them a £20 note, would complain it wasn't two tenners.
Yes PP but two tenners can be more convenient than a twenty, so I think you could have found a better analogy than that to be honest.
🙁
I reckon so. Nice work ConDems.
Sounds a lot to me like blaming them for the double dip that you're suggesting. 'Entirely' is debateable but if you meant anything other than mainly the condem's fault, you'd have worded it differently.
PP's wasn't an analogy - it was a comment on some types of people.
A good analogy is someone who finds out they have cancer and is happy because they'd been telling the doctors for ages that there was something wrong with them...
Some people are never happier than when they're being miserable.
Still waiting for the firs price dip here, when's it due?
double dip
That terms makes it sound like confectionary. I prefer the term 'dead cat bounce' to describe this period of slight optimism in the markets before we get back on with the job of serious crashing.
🙁 🙁 🙁 🙂
Some folk just can't get by without moaning all the time
won't find any of that from me, bought a house end of 2008 sold it 2 months ago for a profit - so clearly not all house prices are falling.
As always, with house prices, it depends entirely on where you want to buy.
No sign of any reductions round my way.
Well as for house prices dropping the theory is that last years recovery in prices was driven by a lack of stock coming on to the market, now more stock is becoming available and buyers are still finding it hard to borrow money prices should in theory drop back a bit, or so they say.
won't find any of that from me, bought a house end of 2008 sold it 2 months ago for a profit - so clearly not all house prices are falling.
We bought early 2008, and I've checked the prices in the area a few times since. Yes, the value fell by around £15K-£20K, but they're on their way back up again, and we don't intend moving for at least another 8-9 years, so I don't give a rat's ass anyway! 🙂
Okay everyone - get your house valued then try and sell it for that (or near that) price and see what happens...
Can we have a "Whining" Forum for threads like this and SpongeFAIL's?
Some folk just can't get by without moaning all the time
And other people are just smug instead.
Double Dip is certainly the fault of the Condems - no doubt at all. (If it happens - not that its here yet)
Under Labour the recovery had started but was clearly fragile. One element of the recovery is consumer confidence. Tell a million people they are going to loose their jobs and consumer confidence dips. As does retail sales and the confidence of the retailer.
Predicted by many folk as soon as the scale of the cuts was announced. Cuts = drop in economic activity = recessionary pressure.
fortunately the country has seen thru the ideologically driven cuts agenda with Condem support plummne3tting, the majority of the country believing cuts on the scale intended are not needed.
Hopefully the coalition will collapse before the worst of the damage is done.
Better to be smug and positive than a pessemistic clever-clogs 😉
Yup that's exactly it PP, if you've bought one recently and have to sell now then it may be a problem. If your in a position where you don't have to sell then there's no problem.
Been in our home for 14 years now bought it before the "Country Life" and "Harry Potter" booms so I'm not worried at all.
I agree about the silly panic over house prices though. Also, depending on where you are buying, the price of the new property should be lower too presumably.
Double Dip is certainly the fault of the Condems
Brown was warning of a double dip reccession months before the Condems got anywhere near power because their growth forecast was woefully wrong.
Brown was warning of a double dip reccession months before the Condems got anywhere near power because their growth forecast was woefully wrong.
Yes but Labour were planning to delay/minimise spending cuts in order to reduce the possibility....
Yes but Labour were planning to delay/minimise spending cuts in order to reduce the possibility....
And all the while we are delaying cuts we still have to borrow at a massive rate just to keep the lights on. Personally I am inclined to live within my means, not borrow more to get myself out of a debt hole.
You know this "ConDem" tag is getting to be as annoying as the old "Bliar" and "zaNuLabour" tags. What's wrong with actually the proper name rather than copying a poor tabloid pun.
I wish prices would drop! Even if I could I wouldn't want to borrow 8 times my salary just to put a roof over our heads.
<Trying not to bite and argue with TJ>
Would be funny if the Government was telling us to live within our means whilst borrowing heavily, you see Labour were happy with us all borrowing; it fuelled the boom that they were so proud of.
What's wrong with actually the proper name rather than copying a poor tabloid pun.
I have no idea [i]gonefishin[/i]
The point is about the timing of rebalancing the deficit - and how to do it.
cutting increases unemployment which increases benefit costs and decreases tax revenues. Thus making the likelyhood of recession worse.
Putting money into the economy creates growth which increases tax revenues and decreases unemployment. Once the recovery is on course solidly - say another year down the line then it will be robust enough to take money out( either cuts or increased taxes - your choice) to balance the budget.
this is the lesson from previous recessions - the 30S and 80s.
its not rocket science - its basic economics. Teh worst of the 30S depression was caused exactly by this - cutting to much too soon to attempt to rebalance budgets too quickly.
since these cuts are not economically lead but ideological - the condems use the financial crisis as an excuse to cut knowing full well that they can ensure its only the poor it hurts.
Raising VAT also has the same effect - whereas raising income tax would have less effect.
tonyd - MemberI wish prices would drop! Even if I could I wouldn't want to borrow 8 times my salary just to put a roof over our heads.
House prices are too high - a different debate
What's wrong with actually the proper name rather than copying a poor tabloid pun.
What is the proper name? The Liberal Democrat-Conservative coalition? Not very snappy is it.
Do you complain about use of the term Tory instead of Conservative?
How can you be liberal and conservative at the same time? Call it the Schizo coalition.
And all the while we are delaying cuts we still have to borrow at a massive rate just to keep the lights on. Personally I am inclined to live within my means, not borrow more to get myself out of a debt hole
But its not quite that simple is it because is the economy contracts the government will collect less tax and if the economy expands it will collect more tax.
What labour was saying is more akin to an individual borrowing money to take a degree/qualification in the hope of earning more money in the future.
Someone explain to me how government expenditure creates jobs and in turn raises tax revenue? Seems weird to employ a load of people so that you can then tax them and claim your tax revenues go up. When the taxer and the employer are the same peope there is surely a zero sum gain.
I understand that it raises consumer confidence but that is worth bugger all when the consumer spending is fuelled by debt. At the moment our economy is inflated by debt, ergo our public sector is also inflated by debt. The financial institutions which bought such wealth/debt to this country have started to get sheepish and reign in the lending that caused the problem in the first place and therefore the public sector must shrink. Not tommorow or next year but now. We cannot live beyond our means. We borrowed as a nation £15.5 billion in August alone. Surely you cannot argue that just borrowing a bit more will get us on the right track. That seems completely stupid.
But its not quite that simple is it because is the economy contracts the government will collect less tax and if the economy expands it will collect more tax.
But if we have to borrow money to expand the economy then we not only have the debt to deal with at a later date but we have the interest on top of it to compound (scuse the pun) the problem in the future.
If the government were borrowing the cash to invest in huge infrastructure projects then there [i]might[/i] be a case for it but they seem to be just trying to keep the engine running at the moment. We have to have the pain at some point. Now is as good a time as any.
TandemJeremy - Member
House prices are too high - a different debate
House prices have been a major part of the miracle economy of the last decade, a lot of people have borrowed too much money and speculated it on housing rather than investing in productive parts of the economy.
If we as a nation paid less for housing (either buying or renting) we could spend more in the real economy. Getting ourselves into more debt so we can buy more stuff won't help anyone in the medium to long term.
I think it's all part of the same debate.
torminalis - because it increases economic activity overall - the shopkeeper earns more as does the publican. So if you put public sector people out of jobs private sector suffers as well - reducing the taxes they pay and even going out of business.
reign in the lending that caused the problem in the first place and therefore the public sector must shrink.
One does not follow the other - the economy needs to be rebalanced. A delay would not matter greatly and this could be done by increasing tax revenue especially direct taxation. Plenty of room to do this as we are a low tax country and our deficit whilst high is not unprecedented.
No other country is taking the course camerons government wants to do
OP - poor troll
because it increases economic activity overall
Which would be perfectly true, if the government weren't having to borrow the money to fuel the increased spending. As it is, we are re-re-re-mortgaging our futures in the hope that growth can be sustained indefinitely, which by virtue of the limitations of our little planet, it cannot. Our entire economic model is based on never ending growth, it has to be or we will eventualy default on our debts as all money is intrisically created from debt. Borrowing more just perpetuates the problem. There really is no other way our of it other than to shrink the economy to a point where it's value is based on the material wealth we can create. Everyhting else is just delaying the inevitable.
But if we have to borrow money to expand the economy then we not only have the debt to deal with at a later date but we have the interest on top of it to compound (scuse the pun) the problem in the future.If the government were borrowing the cash to invest in huge infrastructure projects then there might be a case for it but they seem to be just trying to keep the engine running at the moment. We have to have the pain at some point. Now is as good a time as any.
I'm not disagreeing with this Im just saying its not as simple as we must always live with in our means and never borrow money.
The creation of banking in renaissance Italy and the ability to borrow money in the hope of increasing future revenue is one of the main reasons Europe managed to economically pull ahead of civilisations.
The creation of banking in renaissance Italy and the ability to borrow money in the hope of increasing future revenue is one of the main reasons Europe managed to economically pull ahead of civilisations.
If you ask me the Medici's have a lot to answer for.
growth can not be sustained indefinitely, which by virtue of the limitations of our little planet
But resources dont have to be physical that can be knowledge based as advances in technology are made hopefully we can do more with less.
There might well be a point in the future were technological advances fail to support human populations levels but we cant be sure when this will be.
Our entire economic model is based on never ending growth, it has to be or we will eventualy default on our debts as all money is intrisically created from debt. Borrowing more just perpetuates the problem. There really is no other way our of it other than to shrink the economy to a point where it's value is based on the material wealth we can create. Everyhting else is just delaying the inevitable
Ah - the no growth society - I can buy into that but from the green point of view ( how many more cars and washing machines do we need?)- however that is a radical realignment of the economy far beyond what is being done here.
scu98rkr - I think we are thinking along the same lines here, I just believe that inevitably we are going to have to suffer a huge readjustment, and the longer we wait, the worse it is going to be. We can mortgage our futures to the hilt if we like but we no longer have the option of enslaving half of the world to ensure that our books balance. We are going to have to get used to being a much poorer, much smaller and much less thrusting little country.
From what I understand until fairly recently banking was backed by something - gold, silver, etc. With the introduction of fractional reserve banking those clever people in the city have been able to leverage more and more, as a result a lot of their balance sheets are based on debt. A tipping point has to be reached where the debt can never be repaid. IMO we are at or close to that point, which is when large scale defaults occur, perhaps at a sovereign level (see Greece, Portugal etc).
I think that's what Cameron's govt are trying to address.
But resources dont have to be physical that can be knowledge based as advances in technology are made hopefully we can do more with less.
I agree, but the bottom line is you can't eat ideas and food is rapidly becoming one of the major issues we have to deal with.
Sorry I am so argumentative at the moment. It must be my time of the month.
Natural part of the housing bubble cycle I'm afraid. Nothing to get too worked up about really.
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TandemJeremy - Member
Double Dip is certainly the fault of the Condems - no doubt at all. (If it happens - not that its here yet)
Under Labour the recovery had started but was clearly fragile...
There's an iceberg sized hole in the Titanic that's our economy. Changing the government was never going to make any difference.
Hopefully this govt or the next Labour govt will fix it.
By the way, there's a shortage of lifeboats analogy too. Sorry.