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Others also read the papers and understand the politics - and reach a different conclusion.
Omniscience must be wonderful.
I am only going on what Nissan have said. Delays at the ports or tariffs make the plant non viable. The best deal available now will mean significant delays at the ports
I'll take a bet for a forfeit of your choice to be photoed / filmed and posted on here- Nissan UK will be closed / closing in two years.
Nissan have said lots of things over the years, they know how to twist arms and are consequently one of the most heavily subsidised industries in the UK, they just aren't called subsidies.
The only investment they've pulled is for the xtrail which was only a very small percentage of the total volume and didn't make sense regardless of Brexit when it's already being manufactured in Japan anyway.
You can't suddenly switch a 2 vehicle per minute manufacturing process to another plant. It takes several years to introduce a new model so it's nonsense that on 1st January Renault plants will suddenly start building jukes and qashqais in the kind of volumes required. Also why close Barcelona plant instead of moving production there if Sunderland's closure was as nailed on as you suggest.
However any car plant is in a constant state of slow death, they are always looking to the next new model, if there is no tariff free access to the EU it's extremely unlikely Sunderland will see any new models after their current line up ends life.
Whatever happens with regards to a FTA, any supply chain disruption and extra checks will be managed, they don't signal a death-nell and it's not an insurmountable problem. In the event of tariffs my guess is as per usual they'll ask for government investment in order to secure the next new model - pretty much every new model secured there has had some element of government cash thrown their way. If they don't get this then I agree the future is bleak for them
You can’t suddenly switch a 2 vehicle per minute manufacturing process to another plant. It takes several years to introduce a new model so it’s nonsense that on 1st January Renault plants will suddenly start building jukes and qashqais in the kind of volumes required
Nissan UK will be closed / closing in two years.
I may have missed something here as it looks like you’re replying to TJ
Just a few bits of the press reporting
You really have drunk the coolaid if you think Nissan will not close the plant.
The UK's biggest car plant will not be sustainable unless a trade deal is agreed with the EU, Nissan has warned. The Japanese car maker employs around 7,000 people at its Sunderland factory where it has built more than 10 million cars since 1986.
Nissan has repeatedly stressed that production in the UK is under threat without tariff-free access to the EU.
Theresa May’s government offered assurances to Nissan in order to keep the plant open but repeatedly refused to publish details of what promises were made. It was later revealed that the sweeteners included up to £80m of support for skills, training, research and development and training – as long as Nissan built its new Qashqai and X-Trail models in Britain. The company eventually decided to build the X-Trail in Japan.
Nissan said in March that it would go ahead with a £400m investment at the Sunderland site. Less than two weeks later, production was suspended after coronavirus prompted a drop in demand and caused difficulty importing parts from Japan.
The threat of new trade barriers has forced Nissan to take action. Last year, it scrapped plans to build its new X-Trail SUV at the factory, saying that uncertainty over Brexit was partly to blame.
In November 2016, Nissan pledged to build the hugely popular Qashqai in the UK, after then-chairman Carlos Ghosn received assurances from then-prime minister Theresa May that the firm’s operations would be protected from the impact of Brexit – but the agreement was reportedly contingent on a ‘soft’ Brexit with an EU trade deal.
The FT claims that, under a global review Nissan has since undertaken, the Sunderland plant could be downsized or even closed if a no-deal Brexit makes it uncompetitive to ship cars from the site to the EU. Currently, Nissan also makes the Juke and Leaf models at Sunderland.
matt_outandabout
Full MemberHowever, I would say for the ‘small minority’, particularly as many fishing boats are in rural and poorer areas, the loss of fishing/fish to boats from the continent will decimate some of those communities.
That already happened. It's why so many people involved in fisheries hate the EU. But it's a short memory thing- the EU didn't "take" the fisheries, they were given them in negotiations by a Tory government that knew perfectly well what they were doing and the effect it would have on the fishing communities. They also knew that most of the people they were screwing were far from London and didn't vote Tory, so they were perfectly happy to sacrifice them in order to get other things they wanted more.
But fast forward to brexit and weirdly it was the EU that were the bad guys and the actual reasons for the situation were completely forgotten. So the next generation of Tories who also don't really care about fishing communities as they're far away and don't vote Tory, realised they could be a useful tool in the brexit debate as long as nobody remembered whose fault it actually was.
Even that Jenkins article posted the other day promoted that myth- the EU had "plundered" us and "taken our fish". Nah. The EU never had any ability to do that, they just asked for it and were told yeah, no worries. And not by incompetent dishonest bad-faith negotiators like we have now but by people who knew exactly what the result would be.
I haven't said Nissan will not close the plant. Nissan has been saying the plant will close since it was bailed out by Renault back in 2000. Stop believing everything they say in the media, its always with one eye towards securing the next government handout.
Its future is only ever as long as its current model line up, so about 7 years.
You're suggesting it doesn't matter what happens now, FTA or not the plant is dead. This is nonsense.
With no tariffs its future is no better or worse than it ever was. With tariffs is a different story and I agree the future will be bleak for them.
Its not just the tariffs - I could not find the quote but delays at the ports disrupt the just in time system they use.
Also the jhapan / UK deal means its easy to import from Japan
Its my view and I'll bet the forfeit on it. Want to take me up?
the plant is dead, there is no deal available now that will allow it to be viable
Its not just the tariffs – I could not find the quote but delays at the ports disrupt the just in time system they use.
Yes there's potential for disruption, do you honestly think this presents an unsolveable issue and the company won't adapt? Its logistics, not quantum physics.
Also the japan / UK deal means its easy to import from Japan
True, but it'll take several years for that tariff to become 0%. And logistics costs for shipping vehicles half way around the world aren't insignificant. But yes potentially this could affect the likelihood of the plant winning further business beyond their current line-up.
Its my view and I’ll bet the forfeit on it. Want to take me up?
the plant is dead, there is no deal available now that will allow it to be viable
Everything is dead over a large enough timescale. As for a bet, all I'm saying is that if there is a FTA that allows tariff free access to the EU for vehicles, the plant will survive and will continue to build its current model line-up i.e the Juke and Qashqai will see out their lifespans, that is all. I'm happy to take that bet but at what point in time would you be willing to accept I'm right?
2 years
But you have to remember. 🙂
do you honestly think this presents an unsolveable issue and the company won’t adapt? Its logistics,
Yes. the solution is to abandon "just in time" and hold stockpiles of parts which has huge cost implications both in storing them and in the actual cost of the inventory
Wow! So many global car industry experts in one thread,
I only mentioned Nissan because following on from next year Nissan UK have a limited market. Selling to Europe if they have to add tariffs to the selling price will put a Nissan at the same price as a comparative native selling car in Europe. Basically they are manufacturing in Europe because of the access to a large available market.
Going back to the reason for using Nissan as a comparison to Audi et el. People look to these brands as a mark for high quality and that makes them an aspirational must have. You only have to walk down many streets in the UK to see that for yourself.
Anything that is manufactured in the Uk and selling in Europe is always going to be tight in margin, add 10% to that, there goes your margin.
TJ, if your wager/forfeit post was directed at me I'm definitely interested but not based on a two year time frame.
It can take a long time to wind down a manufacturing operation so if you're willing to agree proposed wording of...Nissan will announce the closure of the plant within 12 months of the end of the trade negotiations or December 31st, whichever is later...we have a bet.
If they make that announcement I lose; if not, you lose.
I suggest £50 to a charity of choice - a food bank in Washington might appreciate your money.
My charity of choice is Crisis.
So in 2 years time, providing an FTA has been agreed:
>if the plant is still open and building Jukes and Qashqais and there are no plans to move the production of these models (in their current generation) elsewhere I win.
> If new models are announced, I win.
>If current generation Juke and Qashqai have their production moved before the end of their life I lose.
I'll take that bet.
Regarding the potential JIT issues. I would expect any severe logistics disruptions to be temporary, if they aren't we'll have much bigger problems to worry about as a country than a car factory with disrupted production 🙂 Beyond that potential initial disruption I'd expect any extra logistics time would be factored into their delivery schedules and adjustments made accordingly. A significant percentage of parts come from Asia anyway - you could hardly call these JIT when they take a couple of months to arrive, so if parts from Europe take an extra couple of days this is hardly a deal breaker.
Wait til you see what will happen with services, whose companies can relocate far easier..
More complicated with services. Irrespective of Brexit, City banks were sending more backroom stuff to Bournemouth, Warsaw, Mumbai etc. Wherever a regulator says their base should be, they will try to locate the people where it is economical and do the deals wherever the movers and shakers like to hang out. (Which isn't Frankfurt.)
LOL my auto type kindly provided "Frankfurter" there.
mdavids - bet is only available to TJ.
I don't bet for money even to charity ever.
I would expect any severe logistics disruptions to be temporary,
I am sure they will be permanent until we get a change of government and start to go back to the EU
@frankconway, I was talking to TJ, but seems like he's not up for it anyway.
@TJ, so have you stockpiled tinned food in preparation? The level of disruption you're suggesting is surely going to affect food supplies?
Yes I have a small stockpile and am going to build it a bit more. Food is going to be disrupted no doubt at all. Stuff that requires refrigerated lorries etc
I'll do a bet for something funny. I never bet for money.
Yes I have a small stockpile and am going to build it a bit more. Food is going to be disrupted no doubt at all. Stuff that requires refrigerated lorries etc
Interesting, I'll be honest I think this is a rather extreme and pessimistic view point, it comes across a little bit "sky falling in" if you know what I mean. I guess it explains why you think Nissan is doomed. Here's hoping things aren't that bad for all our sakes. Although part of me wants it to be bad enough to ensure the Tories get the boot next time around.
The big supermarkets are all saying that imported fresh veg and fruit is going to be in short supply.
I’ll do a bet for something funny. I never bet for money.
C'mon take the bet: I want to see a photo of TJ with his flowing locks walking through the centre of Edinburgh with a "Vote Tory" placard 😀
If it gets that bad I'll happily join in the riots.
mogrim - that would be cruel and unusual punishment 🙂
I am incredibly ashamed to admit that for months I have been buying a few extra non perishables each supermarket shop.
It may have been irrational but I could not face queuing because of this cluster #@_£.
If I am wrong I will have a supply of stuff I can use over the course of the year.
for months I have been buying a few extra non perishables each supermarket shop.
I have panic bought Gates belts and sprockets, bearings (and tools) for my Nicolai and ESI gripshift grips to last me for years, all from Germany. Didn’t think about food. Damn
I guess it explains why you think Nissan is doomed.
Listen to Nissan, you don’t need to listen to what TJ “thinks”, he’s just able to listen and read and let you know what’s been, openly, stated by spokespeople for the company.
Yes there’s potential for disruption, do you honestly think this presents an unsolveable issue and the company won’t adapt? Its logistics, not quantum physics.
It’s money.
I suspect there will be disruption to items we haven't even given a thought to yet, so many things that are taken for granted simply might not be there. Either when we want them or need them or currently become unaffordable.
It an absolute gordian knot that will have so many unintended consequences the mind boggles.
In the short term I'm concerned about disruption to my mother's meds. Specifically the glaucoma drops (3 different ones) to keep her eye sight in one eye. She is effectively blind in the other. That's a big concern.
After the short term mess I've told son that it's best to imagine Brexit as an asteroid hurtling towards earth but not knowing just how bad the impact will be.... but it's such a massive, inevitable event that it's no longer worth losing and sleep over. The time to prevent the impact has gone.
It's shit, it's going to have an almost totally negative impact but it's simply going to happen.
Life will go on but many people's horizons and opportunities will be smaller than they could have been.
The young will be picking up the bill, just as they always do.
P.S. How on earth is this parallel thread still going?😁
Listen to Nissan, you don’t need to listen to what TJ “thinks”, he’s just able to listen and read and let you know what’s been, openly, stated by spokespeople for the company.
I've been listening to them for over 20 years thanks, I'm well aware what the company stance is. I've stated the terms of my bet on a previous post, TJ doesn't want to play, how about you?
They won’t announce the plant’s closure within 12 months, so no one will take your bet.
Edit: oh, that was Frank.
I haven’t said Nissan will not close the plant.
Well, this is all pointless then.
for months I have been buying a few extra non perishables each supermarket shop..
I work for a supermarket, in a group company.
Based on what I'm hearing & seeing - I did a big shop on Friday including +1 months additional dry/tinned goods for the 'store'.
If everything is fine, then it won't go to waste.
Yes, at this point, I can’t understand anyone that isn’t getting a few extra items each week.
I suspect there will be disruption to items we haven’t even given a thought to yet
THIS. It’ll be something completely seemingly innocuous that’s been overlooked, some additive or widget, or some database that’ll stop syncing, that’ll bring the country to its knees
Whatever happens with regards to a FTA, any supply chain disruption and extra checks will be managed,
The delays at the hard border have the potential to queue every LGV authorised for cross border travel on our side. JIT doesn't work if all the transport is held waiting for clearance. Similarly air transport will be delayed by a lack of customs officials and a software system that is predicted to be ready by April!
Sunderland may not get beyond February before the plant closes
https://www.theregister.com/2020/11/04/brexit_it_systems_not_ready/
https://inews.co.uk/news/shortage-customs-experts-severe-delays-border-europe-uk-756837
Sunderland may not get beyond February before the plant closes
You have to hand it to Vote Leave - convincing the people of Sunderland that Brexit was a good idea was an absolute piece of genius. Or else Mackems are a bit thick.
DrJ - Nissan's employees are from across the north east, not just Sunderland; having said that, I wouldn't argue with your assessment of Mackems.
You have to hand it to Vote Leave – convincing the people of Sunderland that Brexit was a good idea was an absolute piece of genius. Or else Mackems are a bit thick.
Or rather the vast majority of mackems don't see the benefit of having a manufacturer like Nissan local to them because the vast majority of them don't work there or within the supply chain. They get told how lucky they are and then that they're idiots for voting to leave because of Nissan, and their simple reply is 'but I don't work at Nissan'.
their simple reply is ‘but I don’t work at Nissan’.
That reply really is simple. My BiL is a mackem so my comment was somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but to say that since you personally won't lose your Nissan job, the loss of Nissan to tens of thousands of people in the NE won't affect you is a bit .. simple.
A couple of 'foreign' owned manufacturing companies that I work with have been stockpiling materials for a number of months now.
These materials are always brought in from sister plants in Europe for further processing here in the UK into the final product for the customer.
The stores areas are full, temporary outside stores have been built in the yard area.
You can't move for materials.
That reply really is simple.
You expect (sub)minimum wage gig-workers in sunderland to be happy that others at Nissan have much better paid and more secure jobs than they do?
You expect (sub)minimum wage gig-workers in sunderland to be happy that others at Nissan have much better paid and more secure jobs than they do?
Not happy, but they won't like it when they see motivated and highly employable people cut into their hours and earnings. Maybe just as a stop-gap, maybe for longer.
You expect (sub)minimum wage gig-workers in sunderland to be happy that others at Nissan have much better paid and more secure jobs than they do?
I expect them to see what happened in the mining areas after the main employer shut and all that cashflow disappeared out of the local economy.
Gig workers being mostly in services are probably going to be the first to feel the chill wind of recession as people cook at home and can no longer afford to order things from the on-line tat bazaars.