[Closed] 50/50 split across the UK and US

Entirely agree, sits back with popcorn.

Forgot to mention it was probably vote leave and Trump who worked out the stupidity of an electorate and how to manipulate it.

Troll.

all my builder mates have not moved an inch on Brexit and still believe it will be the best thing ever - they liked Thatcher too. i also know a lot of retired guys on the rides who love Boris and Brexit. There was an academic 5live this morning saying that people become so entrenched in their views that it would take an absolute revelation to change their minds.

In the US election the parts of the country that are doing well are solidly Democrat, where life is harder it's solidly Trump, if the system has failed you, and you have feel you have no stake in society electing an iconoclast seems like a good idea, at least they'll challenge the status quo and disrupt the system that you feel has screwed you over, I suspect that the Brexit vote here was driven by a similar attitude. It's an understandable viewpoint from low information voters, but unfortunately often makes the lives of people who wanted the change worse.

Bell End

Whoo i have achieved Troll status on singletrack... Jamba would be so proud

And bell end status... a thead that keeps on giving

Both countries have a national government selected by a system that tends to binary choices. Being spilt in two is designed into the system… occasionally we avoid this for a while, but that’s the exception not the norm.

I saw an analysis of the American election in which they demonstrated a tiny proportion of swing voters in swing states decide the election. Most Americans have a religious devotion to one side or the other.

I'm one of the swingers; I've voted for the French right, centre, socialists, greens and most recently a green socialist coalition in the local elections (which lost).

Both countries have a national government selected by a system that tends to binary choices

Excellent point. Why have a bunfight when you can have an involved technical discussion about PR?

Points for first to say Farage and BNP in parliament, Hitler and the Nazis, Godwin's yet uncle...

i think 50% of the population of the UK and US are bordering on brain dead.

You're giving too much credit there...

i think 50% of the population of the UK and US are bordering on brain dead.

I'm sure my brain's at least 50% dead. Hth.

I was thinking about this after reading a tweet from Sleaford Mods along the lines of being sat behind a bloke a plane back from Benidorm who had been on a works weekend, working class, from North etc. going on about how Corbyn is shite, Come On Boris, Come On Boris. Warehouse workers voting for monsters. Why?

I think it comes down to selfishness, xenophobia and racism. Not overtly, but in that the alternative would help those people; the refugees, the homeless, the unfortunate, those that need free school meals etc etc. Why should I vote for someone that is going to help others even if they're not going to help me, why should "my" money go to European people or overseas aid that kind of thing. Not that the right will help the working class, but they sure as shit won't help the brown, the ****less and the foreign.

Fishing leaders bemoaning no deal and how the hell are they supposed to export seafood on radio today.

Hook, line and sinker.

When I think back to my school days (bog standard comp) a solid percentage of my classmates were pretty thick, so yeah, no great surprise its reflected in the voting population really.

I heard a brilliant summary of trump's appeal on Sam Harris' podcast. It's only 8 minutes long and it made great sense to me. Definitely worth a listen to anyone interested. Spoiler alert, his conclusion wasn't that his supporters are braindead as suggested above.

https://castbox.fm/vb/322069016

My stock answer to this remains;

If one side has the moral argument AND superior intelligence, why are they not able to manipulate the other?

Actually, **** it, I'll go further, using a simple question.

Who is controlling the narrative following the US election?

There's no doubt a deeper psychology over the use of three-word slogans, doubling-down on lies and deliberate mistruths. media manipulation etc. I'd also anticipate there's been a degree of participation by the likes of the Russians and other agents who have a vested interest in destabilising the western order - no need to spend billions on traditional warfare when you can recruit a couple of weapon's grade bell-ends to do your bidding for you. Do it wisely and you'll get rich too.

In the US election the parts of the country that are doing well are solidly Democrat, where life is harder it’s solidly Trump

There are long running historical reasons for that.

If one side has the moral argument AND superior intelligence, why are they not able to manipulate the other?

Because one side has principles, the other does not.

The less intelligent half of the country are easily manipulated by emotive but baseless arguments, that don't stand up to scrutiny - because they don't give them scrutiny. The right knows this, and is happy to exploit it.

I don't think it's a straightforward as half the world just being 'thick'

It's a combination of broad spectrum messaging/rhetoric, targeted social media, real social and geographical splits leading to disenfranchisement, shorter memories with a lack of historical awareness...

"Entrenched views" from both left and right probably account for about 2/3rds of people (1/3rd each way on a given topic). It's the "floating" remainder that can be swayed that actually matter, if you can influence a shade over 1/6th of the voting age population you're going to 'win'...

The right/hard right have, broadly speaking, made more of a concerted effort to exploit the tools above to influence and cajole people round to their way of viewing a few key topics. But they don't need to convince 50% only about 15%...

The centre/left leaning side of our political classes have sadly spent the last 15-20 years increasingly relying on the inherent "correctness" of their arguments to sway people, in the last half decade or so that tactic simply hasn't been effective...

This

The less intelligent half of the country are easily manipulated by emotive but baseless arguments, that don’t stand up to scrutiny – because they don’t give them scrutiny. The right knows this, and is happy to exploit it.

And this

The centre/left leaning side of our political classes have sadly spent the last 15-20 years increasingly relying on the inherent “correctness” of their arguments to sway people, in the last half decade or so that tactic simply hasn’t been effective…

The more intelligent people have fallen into the trap of thinking that facts/truth are the ultimate weapon and will persuade people. But that doesn't work with people who are stupid. Those people are too ignorant to be swayed by facts and just believe the short simple bollox that they are fed by the right.

Then of course, there is the protest vote. As I've said many times before, the UK is run by and for the London based elite. They have spent the declining years of empire scrimping and pulling the remaining money into London and their own pockets. Leaving the rest to rot. This was all fine, standard stuff with no great consequence until that bellend Cameron offered them a once in a lifetime opportunity to shake things up. A once in a lifetime vote that mattered more than any in recent history.
He basically write on the ballot paper:

Are you content?

And a chunk of the electorate replied

no we are not

Some of them were stupid enough to believe things would get better, but many of them just did it as a last gasp protest to try to demonstrate how little they had. They probably knew life would get even worse afterwards but hoped that perhaps some of the pain would be felt in the London bubble too.

I said this a year or so ago, and was shot down in flames. Since then Scottish Nat has risen, so has the Welsh, and we're also seeing talk of Northern England wanting some representation for themselves

Exactly as I said, but now too late to do anything to save the country.

( And yes, I know there are poor people in London too, but my point still stands)

The less intelligent half of the country are easily manipulated by emotive but baseless arguments, that don’t stand up to scrutiny – because they don’t give them scrutiny. The right knows this, and is happy to exploit it.

OK. Just pointing out that regarding the US, many on the "left" are being easily manipulated my emotive but baseless arguments, that don't stand up to scrutiny, about how the election has been stolen. Do they count as part of the less intelligent half, or not?

The centre/left leaning side of our political classes have sadly spent the last 15-20 years increasingly relying on the inherent “correctness” of their arguments to sway people, in the last half decade or so that tactic simply hasn’t been effective…

The tactic of labelling everyone who doesn't agree with them an idiot is also not especially effective 🤣🤣🤣

True, but it's kindof cathartic

I thought from the title you were suggesting splitting the countries. I would like to see that happen as if 50% of a society want one thing and 50% want something else then why not just give both what they need and they can live in their half of the country that matches what they want.
This has clearly been a great idea in other countries around the world 🙂

More seriously it would actually enlighten some of the right wing less fortunate who would suddenly see they would be a lot better living in the other half...

This was all fine, standard stuff with no great consequence until that bellend Cameron offered them a once in a lifetime opportunity to shake things up. A once in a lifetime vote that mattered more than any in recent history.
He basically write on the ballot paper:

Are you content?

And a chunk of the electorate replied

no we are not

Some of them were stupid enough to believe things would get better, but many of them just did it as a last gasp protest to try to demonstrate how little they had.

That sums up so much if what I've heard from Leave voters. Any change had to be better than what they felt they had. And Cameron was so out of touch he couldn't see the risk he was taking.

50% of the gen pop aren’t thick, but there is a large slice not interested in reading much beyond the headlines of a red top - and that forms their views, and their social circles reinforce it. Equally applies to those on the left or right.

A conspiracy is much more interesting than the truth, and that’s often what grabs their attention.

I don’t know how you reach these people.

Part of the problem is that there isn't really a consensus any more. There's not really a moderate centre ground. Politics suffers from the Bitter Football Fan syndrome.

At a certain point down the slide into bitterness you stop caring about your team winning and just get your kicks from the other side losing.

There are probably plenty of Brexiters, Tory voters and Trump supporters who know deep down that what they support is all kinds of wrong but it really, really pisses off the people they don't like.

As someone who grew up in a council house and watched my parents scrimp and scrape I find it really difficult to understand why you would vote to make yourself worse off, but if you are not voting to win something but to make sure someone else loses then that begins to make sense.

The tactic of labelling everyone who doesn’t agree with them an idiot is also not especially effective 🤣🤣🤣

Linked to that is the assumption that there is only one set of facts that will lead to one version of the truth.

Worth a read.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/07/24/long-read-there-is-a-powerfully-rationality-behind-the-desire-for-a-no-deal-brexit/

some erudite answers

the topic isn't just "50/50 split" it's "ailment of modern society"

whilst modern society is still a long ton better than feudal britain, circa 1100, we do still have the massive problem of much of society being easily manipulated

many people are not well educated

many people do not care to become well educated

many people are credulous, and do not subject what they are told to scrutiny

emotive arguments win (unless you scrutinise what you are told)

emotive arguments are quick to explain (look! bad guys! doing bad stuff!) vs. arguments that withstand scrutiny are often slow and nuanced (what has the eu ever done for us? well, first there's all the trade...)

as noted, UK/US right wingers have of late been far more effective in using quick fire, emotionally charged lies, to garner support

the sad fact is, that it takes training to learn how to think with your brain instead of your gut, and thinking with your brain is the only way to pick a route that will not exploit you

and in a democratic society (which we do a passable impression of in UK/US) one emotional credulous gut feeling carries as much weight as an educated opinion arrived at through sound inferential reasoning from real evidence.

it is a deep malaise

as Hitler put it, what luck for the leaders of nations that men do not think

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Anyone for eugenics?

The less intelligent half of the country are easily manipulated by emotive but baseless arguments

There are plenty of thick and intelligent people on both sides of the argument. I know some whose only argument for remain was they personally liked the ability to go easily on holiday/retire to Spain.
Which obviously is a nice bonus and in the latter case far more sensible than those who voted out and still want to retire there but really doesnt display any real intelligence and proper analysis of the pros and cons.

That is actually true and makes logical sense though ^^^^

Even if it is very basic and self interested. It's not the same as, to paraphrase Frankie Boyle 'i voted to leave the EU because I don't like ****stanis'.

And I'm sorry but for significant numbers of people that's what it boiled down to. The working class has been steadily decimated in this country and it's easy to blame people who don't look/sound like you. Vote Leave used this cynically to their advantage.

Simple emotional arguments are more powerful than dry nuanced rational ones that require some thinking about. Combine that with social media being many people's only source of information and this is where we're at.

I get all the brexit drivers and understand why they are there, for me this thread is not really about that its the concern that i have around humans in the 21st century accepting information that is plainly wrong/lies/manufactured?

If you can not see Trump and his cohort for what they are (regardless of political views) then yhat is a serious issue (i understand that the likes of Ted Cruz positioning hiself) but a piss poor worker from the midwest well that's another thing.

The redwall voters in the UK supported their brexit protest vote at the last election, my old man was born in Blyth and its an area i know well, their Tory new hire voted against free school meals and then moaned about threats of violence- maybe the **** should have voted with a conscience?

This is a bigger problem than most folk think and i doubt we will see this change for many generations - the vote leave methodology is established and you dont need a Dominic to utilise it.

As a person who has always believed in treaging people well and creating wealth and opportunity for people i am more than lost with this currently.

I am no economist but this gov has done nothing to drive the economy or create real opportunity for ordinary folks, if anyone thinks Rishis furlough scheme was designed to help poor folk they need to wake up - its designed to keep zombie business alive, rents to be paid and goods to be purchased - this is not a Conservative socialist venture.

he redwall voters in the UK supported their brexit protest vote at the last election

And that's perhaps Dom's greatest victory, that Brexit has derailed our political system so entirely that three and a half years after the referendum people were still conflating that single issue with the full breadth of a government's duties...

As touched on already, influencing those floating voters becomes easier when you remove the nuance from your messages.
If other more left of centre parties want to win at the next election they need to simplify their own messages and appeal to those "gut responses" that people will have.