You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
...and there’s a clear reason why the LibDems could win this time:
You're too funny.
Believe it or not quite a few people are interested in policies other than Brexit.
Lib Dems have as much chance of winning the GE as the Brexit Party. Two single issue parties at either end of the spectrum.
Other than 'revoke' what policies do the Neo-Lib Dems have that weren't copy and pasted from old Tory manifestos?
Where can I look at a full list of MPs standing down?
Is that those who are retiring or those who don't know they are retiring?
Why do commentators keep alluding to the tories being in trouble in the southwest?
Hopefully JRM is included.
We have a parachute tory as our mp. Guards, City, then a safe seat and knighthood.
Was a Cameroon. Sacked by May and refused to campaign for her last time round. Anti Boris but now pro.
Remainer now a leaver and will be back in parliament by Christmas.
Depressing init.
…and there’s a clear reason why the LibDems could win this time:
Leave vote is split.
Revoke vote is not split.
The problem is, the voting system we have is a load of shit and people keep voting tactically rather than voting how they actually want. Until this changes we are stuck with 2 party politics with the libdems every now and then doing 'ok'....
people keep voting tactically rather than voting how they actually want.
Got any evidence for that? I would think most people do not vote tactically at all.
…and there’s a clear reason why the LibDems could win this time:
Leave vote is split.
Revoke vote is not split.
Revoke is not split, however, remain is split, as Labour are offering a referendum which could lead to remain.
I voted remain, I believe we should remain, however revocation is not the path to that in my opinion, as it will hand over the narrative to the hard leavers that the system is corrupt.
In reverse, how happy would people be if the vote had been for Remain, but then Brexit party campaigned to ignore that and just invoke Article 50?
Got any evidence for that? I would think most people do not vote tactically at all.
No obviously I haven't got any evidence of that. But read the thread and you'll see it happens....
Turns out that Johnson isnt the one in charge at number 10
https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR/status/1189532275710582785
Vacant: one Conservative nomination.
Only Hard Brexit drones need apply.
I presume Rudd voted with the whip while May was PM?
She stood in for her at TV debates in 2017 when others in her party were already out to get her.
How many MPs showed “ill discipline” by stopping May taking us out of the EU, yet are now in government?
I just hope Jeremy Corbyn actually has the grace stands down after his forthcoming defeat in December so we can get an effective opposition for once. I fear it's going to be a hard right Con/Brexit party coalition for the next 5 years.
Nah, many of us are going to vote for Labour to stop Johnson, and then our votes will be taken as a vindication of Corbyn’s leadership, and a Labour Brexit, and he’ll cling on for a good while yet. I’m resigned to that narrative, but have to vote to try and get rid of our Tory MP anyway.
Corbyns going nowhere.
I think the labour narrative will be the same as last time:
'yes, he's shit and we lost, but he's not as shit as you said he was going to be, and he didn't lose as badly as you said he would'
I believe the technical term is 'managing expectations'. It only works with the terminally gullible and those with unimaginably low expectations, but that seems to be what constitutes the membership of the Labour party nowadays.
Defeat is victory. Another 5 years of Boris will be sold as 'an opportunity to transform the party under Jeremy'
No obviously I haven’t got any evidence of that. But read the thread and you’ll see it happens….
You said it as though it was fact and until it stops there will always just be a 2 party system. Yes it happens from a very few politically savvy people but as that will be less than 1% of the population (see I can make up stuff too) then what you said is just rubbish.
Corbyns going nowhere.
I thought Corbyn and McDonnell were both going to stand down if they lost? We will have to see if they are as bigger liars as Johnson.
Not a hope in hell. If the current situation hasn’t persuaded them to reconsider, a teenager certainly won’t be able to.
The current situation is conflict and accusations flying everywhere, that persuades no one it just entrenches positions.
I'm not talking about being harangued by anyone but about the people with the most to lose speaking to those with the in reality nothing to gain.
Out of interest, anyone have a rough guess on how many Scottish remainers are unionist?
I thought Corbyn and McDonnell were both going to stand down if they lost
McDonnell has said he will. Jezza's said nowt. Seamas probably hasn't given him permission
Of course folk are already voting tactically. Time and again we see, hear and read of folk saying "I'd vote LibDem/Green/AN Other if only they had a chance of winning". It's been going on as long as I've been aware of politics (at least 50 years) and probably precedes that. That's the inevitable consequence of FPTP and an electorate that can't see past the immediate GE.
@Kelvin - Interesting piece of daydreaming the Neo-Liberal Democract manifesto.
I guess even they don't believe they will ever get the chance to implement it (unless they jump into bed with their mates the Tories again and sell their souls for tit bits), hence their overwhelming reliance on a single issue to keep them in the news rather then pushing the rest of it.
As I said, they're a single issue party, and they're as much extremists as the Brexit Party on that one issue.
Brexit Party, Conservatives, Lib Dems - Three different shades of Tory.
they’re a single issue party
They are not. They just have a position on the most immediate question facing the UK, as do (nearly) all the other parties, and so obviously the focus is on that right now.
Three different shades of Tory.
Labour needs to grow its support, fast, and claiming that everyone outside the party, and indeed many inside the party, are all Tory is a sure fire way approach to permanent opposition. Labour need to look like a party of government looking to improve the UK for all its inhabitants, not a small group of navel gazing smelly men at the back of the pub shouting abuse at everyone not at their table.
Brexit Party, Conservatives, Lib Dems – Three different shades of Tory.
At least the tories and the brexit party are consistent. The libdems are the worst kind of weather-vane politicians, chasing power simply for the sake of it, and then doing nothing with it if they get it.
people keep voting tactically rather than voting how they actually want.
Got any evidence for that? I would think most people do not vote tactically at all.
Wiki seems to think a lot can, I was very suprised by this number 🤔
In the 2017 general election it is estimated that 6.5 million people (more than 20% of voters) voted tactically either as a way of preventing a "hard Brexit" or preventing another Conservative government led by the Tactical2017 campaign.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org › wiki
Tactical voting - Wikipedia
Not surprising really is it @Taxi25… FPTP means you are voting for one MP, and most people understand that when they vote. Choosing your second or third preference candidate because they have the support locally to possibly win, when your first choice candidate clearly does not, is very common.
What are you on about @Kelvin?
- The Brexit Party is full of old Tories.
- The Conservatives are, well, Tories.
- The Lib Dems are led by an MP who stuck more to the Tory whip whilst in coalition than Gove and Hunt, have a number of ex-Conservative MPs (including a particularly nasty homophobic and xenophobic one) and a number of ex-Blairites who veer to the right of centre, in-line with the way the politics on this country has generally swung.
That is perhaps the sadest thing about current politics. Lib Dem supporters still believe they follow a centrist party, despite their party being the happy resting place for Tory enablers, actual bigoted Tories and hard-line pro-corporate neo-liberals. Against this swing to the right accusations are then thrown at Labour, calling their progressive socialist policies "hard left".
We're now being told to "vote tactically" and work with others, yet it is the Lib Dems who, through their campaigns of negativity towards other opposition parties and history of supporting the Tories, who have emboldened Boris Johnson and his ilk.
We’re now being told to “vote tactically” and work with others, yet it is the Lib Dems who, through their campaigns of negativity towards other opposition parties
...as opposed to the open-armed, welcoming inclusivity of the present labour party?
They're both as bad as each other. Given that the chances are pretty remote of an overall majority for anyone, pre-emptive slagging off of who will be potential allies is puerile and self-defeating and is exactly what everyone sane is sick of in UK politics.
Coalitions are standard on the continent, and I suspect we'll have to get used to them here too. So people neeed to start being less knee-jerk tribal
Some chance. Pragmatism seeems to have left the building quite some time ago, but the pre-emptive slagging off by all parties is utterly depressing
kerley
Member
Not really. Democracy is working well, it is just the results that are causing problems combined with the fact the being in or out of the EU is now seen as much more important to people than it actually is or was ever before. When a 50/50 split occurs democracy becomes harder to deal with as the losers are pretty much the same number of people as the winners. When the winners have 80% is all seems a bit fairer and easier to swallow.
I agree - when a 50/50 split occurs democracy becomes harder to deal with ... but at the referendum there was over a 50% winner ... democracy doesnt say a winner needs 51% or 81% to win; its just a majority which can be as little as 51%.
To dress it up differently is just trying to muddy the waters.
We’re now being told to “vote tactically” and work with others, yet it is the Lib Dems who, through their campaigns of negativity towards other opposition parties and history of supporting the Tories, who have emboldened Boris Johnson and his ilk.
You are funny. You haven’t seen any “campaigns of negativity towards other opposition parties” by any of the other opposition parties? Not even the ever so slightly tribal Labour Party?
At least the tories and the brexit party are consistent. The libdems are the worst kind of weather-vane politicians, chasing power simply for the sake of it, and then doing nothing with it if they get it.
Libdems already sense the power is within their grasp once they have their numbers. They slept with Tories so they will sleep with whoever offer them power next.
Out of interest, anyone have a rough guess on how many Scottish remainers are unionist?
The want out regardless ...
McDonnell has said he will. Jezza’s said nowt. Seamas probably hasn’t given him permission
Christ, at least let us have the campaign and the election first.
Why, exactly, would Corbyn say "If I lose I'll resign"? Exactly how many votes do you think that'd win, and exactly how much time would you like him to spend in this election campaign talking about defeat?
scotroutes
Member
Of course folk are already voting tactically. Time and again we see, hear and read of folk saying “I’d vote LibDem/Green/AN Other if only they had a chance of winning”. It’s been going on as long as I’ve been aware of politics (at least 50 years) and probably precedes that.
I think in Scotland we're more used to it, having had a 3 party westminster system in the past and then a one party system and now a two but a weird different two in which Labour voters will vote Tory to beat the SNP... 2005 was the first election in my life that I didn't feel I had to vote tactically for Labour to try and get the Tories out of my seat.
And we also witnessed the tipping point thing so clearly recently, when a party that "there's no point voting for" suddenly shrugs that off, increases its votes by 300% and becomes the party with essentially all the seats, and 6 becomes 56, because FPTP is ridiculous.
Oh great the ****ing Tories (or specifically some numb right wing think tank) have been to my hometown...
They're probably right about the rugby though 🙂
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-50239341
I'm particularly impressed that the BBC found the local idiot who thinks Boris is a fruitcake and who wants Farage instead...
Well this is going to be a bit of a dent to Jo's ego 🙂
Coalitions are standard on the continent
You mean like Italy which elects a new govt every year? Or perhaps Belgium which went 541 days without a functioning government whilst they 'negotiated'? it goes without saying that we need a fairer system than FPTP, but if you think we can suddenly adopt the German model then you have more faith in our politicians then I have. We're about as far from that as it's possible to be.
We’ve definitely gone over the edge into Swinson obsession.
Andrew Neil program tonight was good. I'd like all parties leaders to face him in a prolonged exchange.
Can't see any of them coming out great, but at least it would put them to the test.
We’ve definitely gone over the edge into Swinson obsession.
You're absolutely right. I haven't felt this level of antipathy towards a politician since Michael Howard. It feels like a long time since Charlie Kennedy was the acceptable 3rd option.
And we also witnessed the tipping point thing so clearly recently, when a party that “there’s no point voting for” suddenly shrugs that off, increases its votes by 300% and becomes the party with essentially all the seats, and 6 becomes 56, because FPTP is ridiculous.
That's my point. The tipping point never comes if enough folk don't look more than a couple of years down the line.
You mean like Italy which elects a new govt every year? Or perhaps Belgium which went 541 days without a functioning government whilst they ‘negotiated’? it goes without saying that we need a fairer system than FPTP, but if you think we can suddenly adopt the German model then you have more faith in our politicians then I have. We’re about as far from that as it’s possible to be.
Is there something particularly dense about the English electorate that they can't look a few miles north and see how coalition and minority government works in practice?
Is there something particularly dense about the English electorate that they can’t look a few miles north and see how coalition and minority government works in practice?
I presume that's a rhetorical question? 🙂
Now more than 50 MPs not standing for re-election.
What impact will that have - any indication of voting intentions in their constituencies? Summary of how marginal the seats were last time?
Will they be active in supporting their party's candidate?
@Scotroutes is making some very good points (rather than just making pointed comments, like others). Making me think, anyway.
I haven’t felt this level of antipathy towards a politician since Michael Howard.
Sounds like animosity to me.
Pragmatism seeems to have left the building quite some time ago, but the pre-emptive slagging off by all parties is utterly depressing
Does that include the Labour centrists facilitating hard Brexit?
Its not about Corbyn its the policies stupid.
Your choice is do you want to live in a Socialist society where your contribution is valued and supported or as a neo con serf? Unfortunately its a binary choice voting LD or yellow tory wont save you.
Leaders come and go and unless you live in his constituency the name Corbyn will not appear on your ballot paper. Its only the values and policies that you have to chose between everything else is froth designed to divert you away from that.
I see the tories have a fracking advocate drawing up their manifesto.
Now more than 50 MPs not standing for re-election.
What impact will that have – any indication of voting intentions in their constituencies?
The average number of MPs retiring between 1979 and 2015 at each election was 86. 30 odd retired in 2017 so 50 odd now would bring the numbers into line with a typical parliamentary cycle.
A small positive effect from incumbency has been observed in the UK historically.
Looks like the Brexit Party will be pulling lots of candidates to improve the chances of the Conservative Brexit Party winning seats. Scottish Greens have done the same with the opposite intention.
Your choice is do you want to live in a Socialist society
where your contribution is valued and supportedas a politburo serf or as a neo con serf?
FTFY.
I was feeling far too much sympathy for the MPs stepping down… many have worked hard and tried to be fair to their opponents, while getting their points across. So… good to see a clip that reminds us that some MPs are… well… you judge…
https://twitter.com/matthaig1/status/1189557172922966016?s=21
^^
What a ****ing lunatic!
Hopefully Labour do go after the green vote hard. Positive, ambitious green policies please.
That'll be an extra 26 votes per constituency. 🙂
Labour need to be more central to get into power. They can't chase even more marginal policy
That’ll be an extra 26 votes per constituency.
Exactly what I was thinking and I support the Green party. Any left wing person who puts environmental polices higher on agenda than other parties is already voting Green yet the numbers are so low as not to matter which suggests people are generally not that concerned about environmental policies as they don't directly impact them in the same way as other stuff (yet).
When the Green party start to get a serious number of votes we will start to see teh bigger parties mirror those policies. I estimate that will be around 2045.
Just hang on a second... Am I missing something here? Is the Brexit Party Ltd now an official political party, or still just a limited company?
That’ll be an extra 26 votes per constituency. 🙂
Labour need to be more central to get into power. They can’t chase even more marginal policy
Agree, but they've alienated centrists so scavenging for votes in the margins is all they're left with. No doubt they'll start shouting "Green Tory" abuse at them to turn them away as well.
If anyone needs any more evidence that the Libdems are not working in the interests of remain, here they are helping Jacob Rees Mogg.
(clue: read the small print)
https://twitter.com/bathnesld/status/1189648562080112640?s=21
it goes without saying that we need a fairer system than FPTP, but if you think we can suddenly adopt the German model then you have more faith in our politicians then I have. We’re about as far from that as it’s possible to be.
Thats my point.
Politicians in this country need to grow up and stop acting like children. Unfortunately we're heading in the oppsoite direction as both main parties become more entrenched in their idealogical bumkers, and just hurl abuse at anyone that they label 'the enemy' which now seems to include pretty much everyone.
Thats why the likes of Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan are leaving the Tory party and Owen Smith is calling enough on the labour party. 'Good riddence!' the hardliners will (somewhat predictably) cry after them, but unfortunately we're all the poorer for it as both parties hunker down in their echo chambers and are wilfully blind to how unappealing they're becoming to the vast majority of the electorate
If anyone needs any more evidence that the Libdems are not working in the interests of remain, here they are helping Jacob Rees Mogg.
They are not 'helping Jacob Rees Mogg', they are just being more appealing to that particular electorate than the labour party, in this instance, in a bid to win the seat from the Tories.
That is entirely the fault of the labour party. And what you're saying is the perfect illustration of the paranoid bunker mentality that now seems to be completely entrenched within the Corbynite/Momentum cult, where eevryone is 'the enemy'
Thats why the likes of Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan
And I was with you right up until you used the worst possible examples to support your point.
They are not ‘helping Jacob Rees Mogg’,
Have you read the small print?
https://twitter.com/ameliar029/status/1189735522979237888?s=21
And for those with poor eyesight. what’s funny is that even after they have removed the opposition with their fantasies, they still lose!
https://twitter.com/inductivestep/status/1189829037256007680?s=21
but unfortunately we’re all the poorer for it as both parties hunker down in their echo chambers and are wilfully blind to how unappealing they’re becoming to the vast majority of the electorate
The flaw there is the the vapid "centrist" model with its curious mix of hard right economics with a quick veneer of more social policies is unappealing to a large proportion of the electorate.
It just suited a very small subset of swing voters whilst telling the majority of the voters to piss off since their votes were being taken for granted.
Just look at the complaints about the professional political class and those who voted for a change, any change because of the centrist model had completely and utterly failed them.
Whilst admittedly the tories seem to have gone a bit far just now we do need a clear left wing and a clear right wing party to represent the different offerings. Replace it with a bunch of centrists and lots of people will feel discontent and thats leaving aside the minor detail the centre doesnt hold but drifts. Without pressure it will go one way or another as, indeed, it did under new labour.
we do need a clear left wing and a clear right wing party to represent the different offerings
Nah. All you get are lurches from one extreme to the other over a long enough period (assuming each extreme actually makes itself electable). That's no way to run a country/economy.
That’s no way to run a country/economy.
Your use of "extreme" is interesting.
It is also badly flawed since the two countries which really pushed the centrist model have ended up with extreme leaders. Whereas before we had this push for "centrists" we had a far more balanced system.
As I understand BXP ltd they've been told to prove their donations came from UK (They can't) or pay them back.
I'm sure the money is safely offshore now though, as are the fees of all those MPs farage got them to pay him, but he's now saying wont stand I. Tory seats
Corbynite Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle is trailing the Labour Manifesto in front of Jezza's speech today. He's on Five Live, Emma Barnett now.
Its frankly embaressing. He sounds like a ranty sixth-former, preaching to everyone, banging on about Rupert Murdoch and all the other lefty bogeymen. If this is the level of 'debate' that we can look forward to from labour, then Joris Bohnson must be counting how big his majority is going to be already. This kind of thing is just gifting this election to the Tory's. Its absolutely pathetic!
An interesting point was, when he was railing against 'the elite', in his juevenile-level tirade, Emma Barnett asked:
"When you say 'elite', would that include Seamas Milne, the privately-educated son of the director general of the BBC, and Jeremy Corbyns chief advisor?"
Apparently Labour isn't against that kind of 'the elite' but some vague other sort of 'the elite'
God help us! We've got 6 weeks of this shit.
The thing is @binners, all this “Elites, boo, yah, sucks” nonsense WORKS, and Labour would be foolish not to try and use it.
You need to fight populism by combining real policies with a dash of populism. Labour can only beat the techniques Johnson is going to use by having a full and realistically costed manifesto, sold using the language of populism that has been swinging elections and referendums in the second half of this decade. I’m watching and hoping…
in his juevenile-level tirade
Not a hint of irony there 🙂
Do you spend all day waiting for some labour MP to say something you can have a rant on here about?
Also, on a point of order, can people (Kelvin mostly), stop using the @ sign before names? I'm getting deluged with email notifications. I'm on here most of the time, I don't need my email telling me to spend more time here.
@ dazh - about that smallprint - that is EXACTLY the technique we need to use in Calderdale to get a Labour MP instead of a Tory MP. Lots of people are currently looking to vote LibDem here, and we have to persuade them it is a two horse race and back Labour. I hope the LibDems can unseat Rees-Mogg, as do most people who can think beyond their tribal bubble.
Corbynite Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle is trailing the Labour Manifesto in front of Jezza’s speech today. He’s on Five Live, Emma Barnett now.
Its frankly embaressing. He sounds like a ranty sixth-former, preaching to everyone, banging on about Rupert Murdoch and all the other lefty bogeymen. If this is the level of ‘debate’ that we can look forward to from labour, then Joris Bohnson must be counting how big his majority is going to be already. This kind of thing is just gifting this election to the Tory’s. Its absolutely pathetic!
He's my MP and I'm really wondering whether I can face voting for him as it would appear possibly the best way of stopping the seat reverting to the Tories. Not going to be easy but probably the best long term option.
Anyone else listen to Corbyn’s speech? He ticked lots of boxes first, with a list of polices that I back 100%, and I think a huge chunk of voters will as well. He’s focussing on the right policies for a campaigning speech. A bit uneasy about the “elites” stuff he finished with… but it has to be done, because lots of voters will have their fingers in their ears during the policy detail stuff, and need a bogeyman to stand up against to get them into the voting booth.
Also, on a point of order, can people (Kelvin mostly), stop using the @ sign before names? I’m getting deluged with email notifications. I’m on here most of the time, I don’t need my email telling me to spend more time here.
Open one of the email notifications, click the "Unsubscribe" button and you will get them no more. And yes they were annoying.
Anyone else listen to Corbyn’s speech? He ticked lots of boxes first, with a list of polices that I back 100%, and I think a huge chunk of voters will as well. A bit uneasy about the “elites” stuff he finished with… but it has to be done, because lots of voters will have their fingers in their ears during the policy detail stuff, and need a bogeyman to stand up against to get them into the voting booth.
Agree. Have been saying for a while on here that to fight populism you need to use populism (backed up with some decent policies as you point out)
Labour policies should appeal to the average person more than Tory policies and that has always been the case yet we just get Tory governments voted in.
I hope the LibDems can unseat Rees-Mogg, as do most people who can think beyond their tribal bubble.
I presume you don't know the results from last time?
I know the 2017 results, ta. I also don’t expect people in that area to switch from Tory to Labour… but they may well switch to LibDem, as they did at the other elections this year, because, as you keep telling us… the LibDems are seen by some to be moderate Tories who want Brexit stopped.
Labour policies should appeal to the average person more than Tory policies and that has always been the case yet we just get Tory governments voted in.
That's because you're in a bubble, "they should appeal" is based on thinking you know what people want, that people's idea of what's good for them is either the same as yours or wrong, that tory bad Labour good.
We keep getting tory governments because a large number of people don't think what you expect them to, their idea of what's good for them isn't the sams as yours, they don't have some tribal outlook that suggests there's a good and evil option on their polling card and they don't like the fact that the left so often pitch the right and their support as nasty, greedy, spiteful people. Yes there's plenty who vote tory because they always have but that's at least as true on the other side of the divide)
(I've not watched the speech as I'm "working" and it seems the labour website doesn't have the text yet - poor show to be honest, that should go live within about 10 seconds of the end of his pulpit piece - but I'd be amazed if it contained anything significantly different on a broad appeal base than BJ's will, the stuff which is genuinely Labour policy will have down sides for plenty of people as well as upsides for plenty of others)
Lots of people are currently looking to vote LibDem here, and we have to persuade them it is a two horse race and back Labour.
If you can't offer people anything more than "we're only the 2nd worst option" you really don't deserve to win.
Well done for dismissing polices without knowing what they are. Gold star.
And, yes, FPTP means we either have tactical voting, or Johnson gets his majority and implements the hardest of Brexits, with all that means. Many people will indeed need to vote for “the 2nd worst” if they want to avoid the worst. It stinks. But there you go. Deal with the voting system as it is… for now.
Well done for dismissing polices without knowing what they are
Which, exactly, have I dismissed?
Many people will indeed need to vote for “the 2nd worst” if they want to avoid the worst.
Or of course, many people could vote for their preferred option and maybe get they want.
Fptp doesn't necessitate tactical voting, the inadequacies of the system are exacerbated by it, not improved.
That’s because you’re in a bubble, “they should appeal” is based on thinking you know what people want, that people’s idea of what’s good for them is either the same as yours or wrong, that tory bad Labour good.
Nope. Look at the polices and look at how they are good for the average person. Look at Tory policies and see how they are not as good for the average person. People may still vote for a party whose policies are worse for them but that doesn't take away my point that "they should appeal"