[Closed] 2019 General Election

No more politics posts from me, I’m out.

It’s every man for himself and **** everyone else. The Tory way.

This was ‘our’ last chance to avert the car crash. No way out now. No Brexit will be hard enough for the racists, no Brexit will be soft enough not to be economically damaging. This fantasy bollocks will not last five minutes when it comes to real negotiations. The only question now is ‘how ****ed are we?’

The world has given up laughing at us, we aren’t worth it any more.

I'm a bad winner for sure. Lefties? Hahahahahahahahahaha suck it up losers! Great day for democracy.

Especially if you're russian ^

Seriously, as you only feel able to join the political discourse from the safety of having won

It is indeed very noticeable that these plamphs only crawl out of the woodwork after they've won

Totally stunned, but sadly not surprised, by the gloaters and taunters crawling out now they've 'won'.

Take a look at yourselves FFS. Unless you're actually five years old this behaviour just makes you look ridiculous...

Just another reflection of the new normal I guess. Welcome to 1930 everyone.

As a teacher I often come here to take my mind off having dealt with kids and their lack of social awareness all day, but in all seriousness I've had many more thoughtful political discussions with 14 year olds today than I'm seeing here from some posters.

(FWIW, in our mock election this week my year group (10) voted 69% Labour, 11% Lib Dem, 11% Green, 8% Conservative and 1% spoiled ballots).

Gloaters: are you old, or poorly educated, or perhaps both? In none, do you aspire to be either?

As I may have mentioned at the time of the referendum, the U.K. has seemingly proven that the modal level of education has fallen behind the mean.

Johnson may be untrustworthy, but on the issue of Brexit he had earned the trust of the electorate and that was all he was selling - he had ruthlessly pursued it by proroguing parliament and expelling MPs - and that showed his determination to deliver. Having developed that trust, all he had to do was ask permission from the electorate to pursue his aims and he got it. He didn't need to do anymore because his opposition hadn't bothered to do the spade work of earning trust and contented itself with lecturing in platitudes, who would trust them to achieve anything?

This doesn't make it a Brexit election, he just didn't need to do more because he was lucky in his opponents.

@Rusty Spanner

Your post very much vocalises how I feel. I'm angry, saddened, worried and... Not even sure of the rest.

In truth I'm not entirely happy about how I feel at the moment. I've made a habit of telling myself that most people, on the whole, are fundamentally decent.

I can still, just about, say that to myself as the Tories gained less than 50% of the vote. I'm clutching at straws here though and I know it.

In all honestly I'm doing a lot of soul searching to make sense of this and im struggling. I have to question, are my preconceptions of decency and mortality wrong? Should the strong and mortally flexible thrive at the cost of the weak? Right or wrong, that seems to be how it's playing out. I just can't find it within myself to think that is correct... That it's how it should be.

I very much feel an alien in my own country. I thought better of us.

BJ's "healing" speech outside No.10 brought back Thatcher's one when she gained power. I don't need to elaborate on that.

Never realised how bloody lucky I/we were before 2016.

It’s supercilious people like you that make people like me feel that they have to come and let the World know that not everyone is as misguided as you.

Well, there’s some learning for me right there. Hard to know how not to come across as ‘supercilious’ when I’m just so gobsmacked and saddened that so many decent and good people (I’m talking people I know rather than on here, but I’d imagine it’s across the board) can be persuaded by the blurred, non specific mirage of a message offered by the Cons that they offer actually anything at all for them. I GET why people haven’t been enthused by Labour, but I don’t get how people can be so unenthused by them that the think the Tories are better.

New Years resolution; be less supercilious...

I very much feel an alien in my own country. I thought better of us.

This is how I feel too.

Take a look at yourselves FFS. Unless you’re actually five years old this behaviour just makes you look ridiculous…

That statement equally applies to the sulkers in here.  I’ve never seen such a wave of self inflicted misery and it defies intelligence that you’d do that to yourselves.

To me it is just more of the same. Thatcher got in when I was 11 and all I have seen since then are tory governments and a pretend labour government. The country is clearly a tory voting country and that explains why we have the issues we have.
The current tory government won't be any worse than thatcher, yes they will do different things but equally bad with very, very little good.

I am very protected from it all which is why I still live here I suppose.

I’m a bad winner for sure. Lefties? Hahahahahahahahahaha suck it up losers! Great day for democracy.

You are a loser when it comes to being a troll, you are crap at it.

Self inflicted?

Self inflicted?

on the basis they are winding themselves up to doom and gloom.    None of us really know what’ll happen in our worlds tomorrow even, so to drive yourself down to such pronounced level of depression is really silly.   Like I said earlier in this thread or the other, why inflict that on yourselves or your families?  Wake up, get on with things and stop worrying yourselves to an illness.

And there we are, selfishness knows no bounds.

As a teacher I often come here to take my mind off having dealt with kids and their lack of social awareness all day, but in all seriousness I’ve had many more thoughtful political discussions with 14 year olds today than I’m seeing here from some posters.

I too am a teacher, and the election was discussed by the 14 year olds I teach. I too was taken by their level headedness, knowledge and political engagement.

Worth remembering that Tory voters are very much in the minority, given that only about two-thirds of the electorate bothered to vote and of those who did vote, the majority did NOT vote for Fridgeboy.

To me it is just more of the same. Thatcher got in when I was 11 and all I have seen since then are tory governments and a pretend labour government. The country is clearly a tory voting country and that explains why we have the issues we have.
The current tory government won’t be any worse than thatcher, yes they will do different things but equally bad with very, very little good.

I am very protected from it all which is why I still live here I suppose.

I think that describes my thoughts almost exactly, except that for the most part I have not lived here, and may be obliged to move again if/when the Patel-squad come round and throw MrsJ out of the country.

Johnson may be untrustworthy, but on the issue of Brexit he had earned the trust of the electorate

... by considering backing Remain before the referendum? By voting for May's WAG when it suited his personal ambition to do so, having voted aginst it (alongside the Remainers) twice?

Worth remembering that Tory voters are very much in the minority, given that only about two-thirds of the electorate bothered to vote and of those who did vote, the majority did NOT vote for Fridgeboy.

Take a look at yourselves FFS

Both sides need to take a look at themselves.

The Tory lot gloating, Labour saying it was because everyone is 'thick' or 'poorly educated'

Politics of finger pointing; it's low

I'd argue the rage some are exhibiting is a projection of something else. Go get yourself to some talking therapy, might help ease whatever it is that's hurting you. Or you know, keep screaming on the internet...

Why are you all struggling to understand that nobody wanted Corbyn? It was said lots of times in this thread yet you wouldn’t listen.

Many people I know that wouldn’t ever talk about politics would actually mention how they were disgusted and feared what Corbyn and his followers could cause whilst in power.

You lot are supposed to be tolerant, but at the moment are acting like bigots.

Have stayed away from this thread so far as I didn't really feel I had anything to contribute that hadn't already been said but I've been thinking, on and off, since the election result and I realised that in the, very nearly, 30 years, that I've been voting, my vote in national elections has counted for something exactly 0 times.
As a resident in Scotland the system of PR (Proportional representation) that elects our MSP's means that, in that particular forum, I feel I have a level of representation.

The thing I am having trouble coming to terms with this time, is that our system of election has resulted in a huge majority for a single party after a swing towards them of only 1% since the last time.! How can that be fair or representative.? How can it be that a single party can have such overwhelming control of Parliament with a share of the vote in the region of 48% (is it just me or do the numbers 48 and 52 just keep on popping up in elections since 2016..???)

Is anyone able to explain why FPTP is still a fair system in this day and age where local issues are a tiny percentage of matters discussed in Parliament and such a huge segment of the electorate are completely unrepresented.?

Is anyone able to explain why FPTP is still a fair system in this day and age where local issues are a tiny percentage of matters discussed in Parliament and such a huge segment of the electorate are completely unrepresented.?

Admittedly when they can’t do anything they can’t balls as much up. You might be on to something...

I'm seeing a lot of people failing to acknowledge reality.
The people who do see the world as it is are the ones who just won the election.

Did you enjoy the recent hung parliament? Fringe nutters as king makers and nothing getting done?

Admittedly when they can’t do anything they can’t balls as much up. You might be on to something…

To be honest, given the way the main parties have moved towards the extremes of left and right, a hung parliament was the best I could hope for. Surely that just highlights my point though.? Throughout the world system of PR have forced politicians to (re)learn how to work together to get things done, FPTP has encouraged this kind of confrontational, territorial politics where the winner does what they want, no-one else gets a say, eventually they become unpopular and are voted out only for the newly elected party to act exactly the same way and spend most of their time undoing what was done by the previous government and so it goes, on and on. Doesn't FPTP simply encourage a system where effectively nothing gets done, it's just better hidden than a PR elected Parliament that hasn't yet learned to work together and represent everyone.?

Petition up here for getting rid of proportional representation here:
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/westminsters-voting-system-is-bankrupt-its-time-for-proportional-representation/

But the chances of the Conservatives doing anything about it are probably zero, seeing as it serves them well + the electorate chose not to reform it the last time.

Also, the polls, predictions & the trends we've all been seeing in the run up to the election before the exit polls came in... they were slightly inaccurate weren't they!

No party that has just won by FTP wants PR. It will never happen.

I’d rather get rid of government entirely. We don’t need more laws. If anything crops up in the future we can have a vote to see if we need one again.

I’m seeing a lot of people failing to acknowledge reality.

Oh I think we're more than aware of the reaility. It's a reality where crowing, self-interested and uncaring ***** like 5thElephant are in control. And they're in control because of a system which is stacked in their favour, from constituency boundaries, bias in the media, the power of lobbyists, party funding rules and everything else. The entire edifice is designed to keep the people who care about others away from power. The people who won the election are not the ones who see the world as it is, they're the ones who made it as it is, and unsurprisingly they continue to benefit from it.

The PR numbers in an article about that petition are what prompted my thinking. But you are right, the chances of actually getting a fair voting system are very low when coming from our current system as, by design, the winner of a general election feels that they best represent the country and that the system that got them voted obviously works. Until it becomes enough of an issue that a party can get elected in the current system on a manifesto of changing the current system then it won't ever happen. Even if (in some alternate universe) the LibDems managed to get elected on another issue (lets say, as a thought experiment, that Brexit turns out to be a disaster, the LibDems organise sufficiently to be able to turn the ultimate instance of 'we told you so' into an election win. They still have PR as a bullet point on their manifesto although I believe it gets pushed further and further down the list every election). Does anyone actually believe that a newly elected government would change the very system that got them elected.? That takes some serious political morality.
The only way I can see it happening is by it being the main issue in an election or a separate referendum (to be clear I think referenda in a representative democracy are a terrrible, terrible idea), and what are the chances of something as mundane as the system of voting being the main concern of government in any of our lifetimes..?

Oh I think we’re more than aware of the reaility. It’s a reality where crowing, self-interested and uncaring ***** like 5thElephant are in control.

Actually having read back my own words it occurs to me. How can a FPTP system of election, where any of the constituencies have more than 2 parties running for election, ever be considered fair.?
If there are more than 2 parties running then 99/100 times (i.e anything other than a complete landslide victory) means that the elected MP is only representing a minority of those in his constituency, by definition of FPTP he/she must have won less than 50% of the vote.
Maybe it made sense in the days before Pitt, before such a thing as a PM existed, I cannot see how it makes sense today when every decision (more or less) made by Parliament affects us all but only a fraction of us gave them the authority to make those decisions.
Isn't a feeling of disenfranchisement by a majority of people in a country what eventually causes uprisings and civil wars.??

Isn’t a feeling of disenfranchisement by a majority of people in a country what eventually causes uprisings and civil wars.??

We’re not French.

😀 Is that the best that we aim for, for ourselves now then.?

We’re not French.

Maybe we should aspire to be though...

Maybe we should aspire to be though…

So, taking my own constituency as an example. The incumbent MP retained his seat with 46% of the vote with a turnout of, just shy of 72%.
I think this is actually a pretty good example of FPTP working as intended and yet even with those numbers it's massively unfair.

Out of 68330 registered voters, 45719 did NOT vote for the winner.!!!! How can that be.? (This includes those who are registered but did not vote, I included them because their reason for not voting cannot be known but feeling unrepresented cannot be discounted as a reason)

They simply don’t care? That’s an entirely valid position. One I held for a couple of decades until Corbyn appeared.

They simply don’t care? That’s an entirely valid position. One I held for a couple of decades until Corbyn appeared.

That's a fair point, however, if they were all made to care somehow (compulsory or mandatory voting is a whole other issue), unless they ALL voted for the 2nd place candidate, it STILL wouldn't have made any difference.

Part of me is wondering if the Tories will change their attitude to investing in the North if retaining those seats are a possibility.

unless they ALL voted for the 2nd place candidate, it STILL wouldn’t have made any difference.

So you might as well stop carrying on about how unfair this system is; it is the system in the country.

Gloating leavers, whining remainers... anyone got a mallet, we can probably drive that wedge in a little deeper yet.

Riddle me this: if brexit is so popular, what happened to the Brexit Party vote? Is it that rather than wanting brexit, most people just want it over and done with by any means? Or is there something more insidious going on?

Part of me is wondering if the Tories will change their attitude to investing in the North if retaining those seats are a possibility.

I doubt that. Remember Boris's speech, thanking people for loaning him their vote?

I doubt it too

But it could keep Labour out for decades

lets face it the populace are full of shit, they claim concern about the "environment" is high on their priorities then vote for a climate change denier.

Riddle me this: if brexit is so popular, what happened to the Brexit Party vote?

It voted Conservative to get Brexit done.

I doubt that. Remember Boris’s speech, thanking people for loaning him their vote?

That was about showing the voters in the North some respect, something sorely missing from a Labour Party who considered that it owned those people's votes.

The Tories became the Brexit party.

Tbh nothing has particularly changed regarding people's attitudes. It is probably still 50 50.

What happened yesterday though is that half of us were politically defeated.

So Brexit it is.

What happens now is the withdrawal agreement will go through. And it will be proclaimed as Brexit got done.

What happens after that as I mention on the other thread is probably a matter for lawyers and Tory policy, for the next 5 years at least.

Public opinion may vaguely sway the odd thing. But Tory policy is now king.

It's gonny be fun...

Remember Boris’s speech, thanking people for loaning him their vote?

That’s just correct use of English, he went to a different school to you.

And there we are, selfishness knows no bounds.

If you're referring to my post you're very wrong.  Just because I refuse to whip myself into a frenzy over something I can't change, doesn't mean my human nature, fatherhood or philanthropy has changed.  It doesn't mean I agree with the outcome, like Boris or the establishment, or Corbyn either.

Other than this thread, the last two days have been exactly the same for me - in general - as the two days before it, the next two likely the same.  However, those that are feeling sad, angry, stressed, planning a move, raging, etc aren't are they?  They hurt themselves - and achieved what exactly by doing it?  A few more words and a few more pages on an internet thread - whoopee.

I’m alright jack.

I hope things continue to be that way for you.

Very zen Kryton. I am genuinely glad you have achieved inner peace.

I'm fully intending to keep raging against the dying of the light. I'm personally finding it quite therapeutic 🙂

If I'm really lucky Boris might even find time to visit the northern constituency where I live on his tour. I'll then be able to show him appropriate fealty.

I’m alright jack.

Didn't say that though, did I?  I have as many issues as the next man I suspect.

Edit:  I'll try to explain it.  Many of you know I received CBT for fear of flying, and I carried some of that learning into my day to day.

To me, what's happening here is equivalent to me being stuck on a plane which right now at this very moment is in save and level flight, albeit the Captain has told us there's some Turbulence ahead and you are all running around shouting "We're doomed!  we're all going to die!  The planes going to break up!"

Except, it isn't doing that now is it?  It might, but then again the Captain may decide to alter course and avoid it, or he might be a selfish ****er and fly straight though it because he wants to get home quicker.  Thing is, as we sit here right now none of us really know which it's to be even though the planned course is outlined on a map.

Does that make sense?

Kryton, what changes elections and consequently countries is public discussion. I'll be upset about the things that happen to people, and I'll deal with it, but I won't forget about it.

I'll continue to talk about the issues hough (although not whine) because they need to be discussed and remembered so we can hold the government to account if they don't fix them.

If opting or forgetting about the issues is what leads to people not caring which is what leads to them not getting fixed.

Does that make sense?

It makes perfect sense.

I’d offer you some additional advice… stay away from political threads on internet forums where other people want to discus these things, rather than ignore them.

Riddle me this: if brexit is so popular, what happened to the Brexit Party vote? Is it that rather than wanting brexit, most people just want it over and done with by any means? Or is there something more insidious going on?

"Tactical" vote because many are still skeptical with a new inexperienced party when it comes to GE. Also the fact that people don't like to change much.

You might ask why they won in UK European parliament election that is because people just vote for "fun" since that does not "directly" impact on them. Also people vote to send a message ...

However, if PM BoJo does not deliver then in the next GE you will definitely see a new party gaining ground.

The survival of Labour party will be in next GE as one wrong move means total decimation and probably erase from history. Same goes to LibDem.

p/s: if they political parties want to win election all they got to do is make it easier for people to earn a livelihood. Not try to impose more rules on them. Give people more freedom to earn a living if the govt cannot create jobs. Kill off the business rate for a start. If PM BoJo kills off the business rate he will be very popular.

I’d offer you some additional advice… stay away from political threads on internet forums where other people want to discus these things, rather than ignore them.

im following the thread because:

Kryton, what changes elections and consequently countries is public discussion. I’ll be upset about the things that happen to people, and I’ll deal with it, but I won’t forget about it.

I’ll continue to talk about the issues though (although not whine) because they need to be discussed and remembered so we can hold the government to account if they don’t fix them.

If opting or forgetting about the issues is what leads to people not caring which is what leads to them not getting fixed.

I happen to agree with molgrips. What I’m reacting to is the mental anguish, talk of moving out of the country an extremism such as riots that is quite prevelant on these threads.   I’m not suggesting anyone - nor I - bury their head in the sand.

It is quite possible (to me at least) to feel all the disbelief, anger and frustration while at the same time being able to pragmatically continue to function absolutely fine in everyday life knowing that what will happen will happen. The two are not mutually exclusive.

However, if PM BoJo does not deliver then in the next GE you will definitely see a new party gaining ground.

It really won't, labour will squabble for the next while, but they'll have 5 years to come up with something better.

There will be no new party, the tory/labour merry go round will continue.

Whether the switch happens in 2024 or 2029 is up for debate, and subject to what happens over the next 5 year, but labour won't die no new power will emerge.

talk of moving out of the country

What's wrong with that? The country has diverged even further from my values, wouldn't it make sense for me to want to go somewhere more in alignment?

Of course, I no longer have the right to do that but whatever.. am I still allowed to be pissed off about that or not?

It really won’t, labour will squabble for the next while, but they’ll have 5 years to come up with something better.

I think they are stuck with no new ideas judging from their current bunch of politicians.

There will be no new party, the tory/labour merry go round will continue.

That depends on whether people still believe in the two main parties or take the risks for something new.

Whether the switch happens in 2024 or 2029 is up for debate, and subject to what happens over the next 5 year, but labour won’t die no new power will emerge.

My view is that there will be no switch for at least 3 terms unless Tories screw up massively.

What’s wrong with that? The country has diverged even further from my values, wouldn’t it make sense for me to want to go somewhere more in alignment?

It is not permanent regardless (divergence) and it will be back again in future but whether you can wait is another story. Whatever makes you happy go for it.

Of course, I no longer have the right to do that but whatever.. am I still allowed to be pissed off about that or not?

I am sure if there is a will there is a way. It only takes 10 years to switch/move to another country. Alternatively is to make the best of what you have now. Forget about the world as they can take care of themselves.

Alternatively is to make the best of what you have now.

It's not an either/or thing.

Riddle me this: if brexit is so popular, what happened to the Brexit Party vote?

In leave areas it went up. More than the conservative vote in many cases. But they were never going to actually get elected. That's not the point of Farages pet projects. Next up, the reform party.

My view is that there will be no switch for at least 3 terms unless Tories screw up massively.

Depends how voters judge them. If Brexit goes the way the odds say it will (either no deal by the deadline, or the worst possible deal) an it has even half the economic impact that forecasts say it will, it might be the end of the Conservative Party as we know it. The bad news is, what replaces it.

Depends how voters judge them. If Brexit goes the way the odds say it will (either no deal by the deadline, or the worst possible deal) an it has even half the economic impact that forecasts say it will, it might be the end of the Conservative Party as we know it. The bad news is, what replaces it.

They will be silly to gamble as they know truly well that the Red Wall only lend them the power for now. PM BoJo knows that he won because of then power lent to him and acknowledged that for Tories/his victory. If PM BoJo is silly enough to go against the people wishes then Tories will go the same way as Labour as we witnessed on Thursday/Friday.

The bad news is, what replaces it.

There will be new party if main party(s) does not deliver. It will be a slow process though as trust is not easy to gain.

PM BoJo is silly enough to go against the people wishes then Tories will go the way of Labour as we witnessed on Thursday/Friday.

It's not so much going against their wishes, it is that the promises made are generally accepted as utterly unachievable. It's not a question of them being broken, it is the specific bits that get broken. A fair deal will take far longer than they promised. Only a bad deal can be done on their timeline. That and the economic impact, which they glossed over.
He didn't have much choice but to go against their wishes. It's not in his control.

There will be new party if main party(s) does not deliver.

That never ends well.

In this case, the Captain has announced he's put the plane on autopilot and it's going to crash into a mountain. The crew and those in first class have parachutes. Your feelings on the imminent disaster are obviously tempered by your seating arrangements. You can either think "**** it, I have a chute and don't care about the rest" or you might be thinking "hang on a mo, maybe we need to storm the cabin door".

I think it highly possible we won't be leaving on 31st Jan. From what I've read the timetable is ridiculously tight, requires parliment to sit over the weekend of the 21st/22nd to have a chance and any hold up will scupper the deadline.

We've already had people interviewed on TV saying if Boris doesn't do it we'll be coming with violence (pretty dumb thing to state on national TV IMO!). Could be an interesting few months!

I think it will take over 5 years for people to realise the unicorns have deserted the sunlit uplands though

Jo Swinson, classy as always...

https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/1205641521170669569?s=20

One of the best things about the election result is not having to hear her ridiculous false accent again!

I think it will take over 5 years for people to realise the unicorns have deserted the sunlit uplands though

They will be starting to see it within 5 years. More importantly they need to be asked "is anything better for you now", "what difference to your life has it made", "was it all worth it"

One of the best things about the election result is not having to hear her ridiculous false accent again!

Which one?

I think it highly possible we won’t be leaving on 31st Jan.

0.000001% chance of that now.

The end of the transition period is an altogether different matter, because that is when companies and state bodies need to have systems in place for whatever comes next. The chance of the “implementation period”, as May put it, having to be extended for new systems to be made ready is high. I suspect Johnson will make the “exit date” happen when he has promised, to reduce the political cost of the date of us actually leaving the Single Market and Customs Union not being when he promised. April 2021 anyone?

People feeling guilty that they've just screwed the really poor people?:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/housing-charities-and-food-banks-report-spike-in-donations-after-tory-win

scotroutes

Member
One of the best things about the election result is not having to hear her ridiculous false accent again!

Which one?

fair point! 😆

People feeling guilty that they’ve just screwed the really poor people?:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/housing-charities-and-food-banks-report-spike-in-donations-after-tory-win/blockquote >

Or that they always spike around Christmas?

 

Yep possibly. 🙂

If Brexit goes the way the odds say it will (either no deal by the deadline, or the worst possible deal) an it has even half the economic impact that forecasts say it will, it might be the end of the Conservative Party as we know it. The bad news is, what replaces it.

Chris grey reckons the rise of a new, fascist party. Happy days.

Here is Professor Chris Greys take

The Brexit dystopia bequeathed by this election
Today is a bitter moment for those of us who think that Brexit is an unmitigated disaster. Even if it were not for Brexit, the prospect of a country run by a compulsive liar whose fake bonhomie scarcely conceals a priapic, vicious, moral void would be a woeful one.

That he won on the basis of a campaign characterised by mendacity, cowardice and divisiveness says something about what plenty of voters find appealing, quite as much as it does about Johnson and his strategists. It leaves others of us, as Rafael Behr eloquently wrote in anticipation of this result, “with the undertow of sadness and dread … like seeing callous hands rummaging in a private drawer where a delicate, tangled identity is stored and pulling at the threads. It feels like exile”.

There will be endless inquests into how and why this result came about, indeed they have already begun. But its consequence so far as Brexit is concerned is clear. It marks the end of any lingering hope that it might be avoided. Ever since the Referendum that hope has waxed and waned. As of today it is stone cold dead.

The UK will leave the EU at the end of January 2020.

The underlying dynamics of Brexit are unchanged

Yet, as I and many others have stressed since the outset, Brexit is not an event but a process, and neither this election result nor the departure in January mark an end to that process. On the contrary, we will see a continuation of the core dynamics which have characterised it from the beginning. These dynamics, which have featured in some way in almost every post on this blog, are threefold. They bear repeating because although some commentators are already beginning to talk of a new political landscape some, at least, of its topography is going to be wearily familiar.

The first and most central is the basic fact that the Referendum vote was to leave the EU but it was not a vote for what should come afterwards or for what form Brexit should take. Nothing which has happened in the last three years has come anywhere close to answering that unasked question. And opportunities to do so in this election campaign (like that of 2017) have been deliberately squandered. Johnson said nothing of substance about Brexit other than that it would be done.

From this derive the second and third dynamics. The second is to do with the internal politics of the Tory Party and its three decades of civil war about Europe. This is characterised by a group of hardliners, who we nowadays identify as being the ERG but probably includes others, who will never be satisfied with any form of Brexit and will always push for a still harder version. Whenever that is conceded – in the vain hope of gaining their support – they make a new and harder demand. They are still present, many of them are likely to be in the cabinet, and they will still follow this pattern.

The third dynamic is to do with how the government – any government seeking to undertake Brexit, regardless of the size of its majority – must deliver something which is inherently damaging to the national interest in a way which is not totally disastrous to the extent, potentially, of causing serious economic dislocation and civil disorder. As the first Blair government found with the much less extensive chaos caused by the fuel protests in 2000, even a large parliamentary majority does not shield a government from political crisis in such circumstances.

Because of the first dynamic, this entails turning the vague and contradictory promises of the Brexiters into concrete policy. Because of the second dynamic, this immediately brings the government into conflict with the Brexit Ultras who denounce the policy as not being ‘real Brexit’.

Almost everything that has happened since June 2016 grows out of these three things, and they will all continue to be in play now because they present an insoluble conundrum. Alongside them is another factor – time pressure – which has also been present in the process since the point that Article 50 was triggered and which is going to be a constant feature in what is to come, not least because of Johnson’s own promises.

Passing the WAB

Concretely, Johnson’s first task is going to be to get his Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) passed in time for a January exit, alongside the other necessary legislation. That is a very tight timetable, and having failed to die in his self-imposed ditch in October it is not a date that Johnson will now let slip. And whilst he will face little opposition from Labour and the LibDems, who are in total disarray, he could be vulnerable to Tory MPs seeking changes.

This time, the potential rebels will not be from the remainer and anti-no dealer wing of Tory Party – that has been all but expunged – but from the ERG who scuppered May’s Brexit. Since there is no public membership list we don’t know their number, but it is usually estimated at around 60 and so enough to do serious harm even to a government with a majority nearing 80.

Although they voted for the first reading of Johnson’s WAB in the last parliament, they did so in part because that parliament had shown – with the Benn Act – that it could and would block a no-deal Brexit. That meant that the Ultras risked losing Brexit altogether if they did not back Johnson’s deal. So even the self-styled ‘Spartans’ fell into line, despite their earlier threats not to. But many, if not all, of them are hostile to it. Some would be hostile to any Withdrawal Agreement (WA) and believe, as Johnson used to, that no financial settlement should have been agreed. Others are opposed to the Northern Ireland-only ‘frontstop’ that is the principal difference between May’s and Johnson’s deals, and which Johnson used to denounce as a betrayal of the Union.

I suspect that many in the ERG will now be thinking that Johnson’s deal was only the bastard offspring of May’s ill-fated premiership and the ‘remainer parliament’, and feel no allegiance to it. They kept quiet during the election campaign, which required them to pledge support for Johnson’s deal, but that won’t necessarily last.

For one thing, many of them are rebels by temperament, with a track record going back in some cases to John Major’s premiership, and ruthlessly indifferent to party loyalty or discipline. For another, it became slightly clearer during the campaign just what Johnson’s WA means in terms of checks on goods moving in both directions across the sea border between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. His blustering denial of this during the campaign will not survive a moment’s scrutiny of the WAB, and the ERG might decide to pounce on it.

With all that said, in the aftermath of his fresh election victory and on a scale that was so unexpected, it is far more likely that the ERG will keep their powder dry. But all that means is that even as Brexit ‘gets done’ they will hold on to the belief that the WA meant that ‘this was not really Brexit’ and will be watching keenly – in both senses of the word – for further ‘betrayals’.

After the WAB

So Johnson will get his WAB passed more or less intact and the transition period will begin. But then a new set of problems will immediately arise. All of the detailed issues about Brexit which the election campaign failed to discuss will come to the fore, and with them the ERG will certainly come back to life.

Overall, the question will be how close a relationship to seek with the EU, but it’s crucial to understand that this won’t be a matter of a single decision taken at a single moment. Rather, it will have to be made for almost every sector of the British economy, with most business and other lobbies fighting hard for their sector to keep a closer relationship. The same will apply to non-trade areas, such as security and science.

Each one of these decisions will re-open the split in the Tory Party between those who want a very distant relationship and those who want a closer one. Those splits will potentially include the new dimension brought by Tory MPs representing former Labour seats in the North of England. They are likely to want closer links to the EU to reduce damage to jobs and public services in those constituencies.

Nor will the future relationship just be about domestic politics. What happens will also depend upon what kind of relationship the EU wants to have with the UK – something almost entirely ignored in the domestic UK debate - which itself is likely to involve accommodating the different priorities of different member states. And all the time there will be the lurking issue of a possible trade deal with the US – seen, quite wrongly, as a great prize by the Brexiters – and the extent to which this conflicts with whatever is being negotiated with the EU.

What all this will reflect is the underlying fact that there is still no agreement within the UK, or within the Tory Party, about what future terms it is seeking or, in other words, what Brexit means. This was exactly the reason why, after the end of phase 1 of the Article 50 talks, no substantive progress was made in phase 2. In that respect, nothing has been changed by the election because it was barely discussed.

The transition period crisis

The immediate crisis which this will provoke will come quite soon after ‘Brexit day’ because, as with the Article 50 process, there will be a tight and looming deadline. This time, it will be the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020. But the more immediate deadline will be 1 July by when the UK will have needed to make an application to extend the transition period, if it is going to. Johnson has sworn not to do so, committed not to in the manifesto, and insisted that every Tory candidate also explicitly commit to that. If he tries to renege on this self-inflicted constraint then he will open a major conflict with the ERG and within his government.

But if he does not, then there will be an acceleration of business relocations, continuing deferred or diverted business investment, and significant downward pressure on the pound. For no one serious believes that a trade deal can be completed by the end of the transition period, a point underscored this week by Michel Barnier. The alternative will be a ‘WTO Brexit’ and a major economic crisis. Moreover, it is already clear that, even if a ‘bare bones’ trade deal - whatever that really means in practice – could be done, the new customs arrangements and systems needed are highly unlikely to be ready by December 2020 and possibly not for quite a while thereafter.

Some, though not all, observers believe that even if no extension had been sought by July then as the end of 2020 approached the EU would still be amenable to doing so (just to avoid the disruption). Domestically, it might perhaps be dressed up in some face-saving language rather than being called a transition period extension. But it would certainly involve continued budget payments and, of course, continued adherence to EU rules and ECJ judgments but with very limited involvement or input from the UK. It is hard to see how such ‘vassal statehood’, to use Johnson’s term, could provoke anything but a major political crisis in the Tory Party.

A dystopian future

Yet, even assuming that an extension were agreed and the political crisis weathered, that would not solve anything. All of the same dilemmas and disputes would exist, just with a new deadline of whatever that might be. It’s perfectly possible that, by the time that next deadline got reached, some or most of them would still be unresolved and it would be extended yet again.

At this distance in time it is impossible to predict what such a scenario would look like, but a reasonable guess is that by then the opposition parties will have re-grouped, and that there will be a vibrant campaign movement to re-join the EU. But the civil service will be in meltdown after years of having been asked to deliver an undeliverable policy. Many EU nationals will have left, along with many of those UK nationals with the skills and mobility to do so. There will be (at very best) a stagnant economy, with a declining fiscal position and major labour shortages, especially in the NHS and social care.

As for leavers, by the time we get to this point I think they will have divided into three groups. One will vociferously insist that it would have been fine if only their various versions of ‘true Brexit’ had been followed. The second will be denying that they had ever supported Brexit at all. The third group will probably be supporting a new, more or less openly fascist, party.

This is the best case scenario, in that it’s based on the assumption of continued extension(s) of the transition period, and says nothing about whatever non-Brexit horrors lie in wait in terms of, for example, human rights legislation. Nor does it say anything about the other huge consequences of the election result in terms of the likely impetus to Scottish independence and Irish reunification. Both of those, whatever merits they may have for their advocates, imply ending up with an English nationalist fragment of what was once the United Kingdom.

This is the grim dystopia that the British electorate, as distilled by the absurdities of the British electoral system, has just voted for. The coming years are going to be very ugly indeed.

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/12/the-brexit-dystopia-bequeathed-by-this.html?_sm_au_=iVVWQ5sSwHPqD5Pwv7BHkK7ssf464

It's not over yet.

Those splits will potentially include the new dimension brought by Tory MPs representing former Labour seats in the North of England. They are likely to want closer links to the EU to reduce damage to jobs and public services in those constituencies.

The MPs might want closer links but they will have to sell that idea to their new constituents who, I suspect, will be hard line Brexiters wanting nothing to do with the EU.

Chris grey reckons the rise of a new, fascist party. Happy days.

I wasnt actually thinking that extreme but certainly I is the type of thing that leads to increased polarization or regionalisation

I think the most pressing problem will be Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Nationist option in Northern Ireland is largely due, I suspect, to Boris sticking them on the other side of a border and then pretending that border doesn't exist.

I think Grey is right. The Tories will ram through the existing withdrawal agreement. Then when they figure out how hard the next bit is they will destroy the party from the inside out.