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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1202906042759286790?s=20
Ipsos Mori is one of the most extreme with 16pt Tory lead last poll.
They also polled people's thoughts on who was having the best campaign - Tories by far - apparently.
The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign and how easy a ride its giving Johnson is utterly depressing to witness
The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign and how easy a ride its giving Johnson is utterly depressing to witness
And they should do what?
I tell you this - I've been involved in the local campaign recently (offering my media services where time allows) filming the local Hustings (which just happened to be hosted by an independent school) and a vote sample was taken - this in a 70% Brexit constituency - widley tipped to go Tory - and Labour were way out in front on the vote. Not what I expected. And this is purely down to the campaigning effort thus far by the Labour PPC / Labour at large.
Treasury report on Johnson’s Brexit leak today is good.
Pointing out that the new hospitals promise is a lie so good.
Pointing out that the additional nurses promise is a lie is good.
Pointing out that the new GP promise is worthless as similar promises have been made and broken by the same party at the last two elections is good.
Pointing out that the police staffing promise doesn’t even replace the police that the Tories cut is good.
Pointing out mental health services for kids have been decimated is good.
Pointing out A&E waiting times are at an all time high is good.
Pointing out that any lopsided trade deal with the USA will negatively effect the NHS is good.
Pointing out that relying on the regulated private sector to provide key infrastructure is holding the UK back is good.
Pointing out that spending on transport has to shift from road to rail to meet climate objectives is good.
Pointing out that shifting from gas to renewables has to happen fast to meet climate objectives is good.
The trouble is people queue up to reward Boris Johnson's bad behaviour. That's the rub. People actively go for his lies. Corbyn could walk on water - but you ain't doing battle with that irrational logic.
The continued half-arsed incoherence of the Labour campaign
I think you must be watching a different one to the one I'm seeing.
The polls seem to show that most people are watching the same one as me 🙁
The polls seem to show that most people are watching the same one as me
They're polls - they reflect people's perception plus possibly out-moded weighting - they're not a critique on how good a campaign is.
They are as good an indication as any of how successful the campaign has been so far.
Of course, voters are swayed by far more than the campaign… everything said or done (or not said and done) before the campaign has set many people down a voting path that last minute campaigns will not shift. Some have bought into the “success” of the swing managed in the 2017 campaign, and think the same level of change is possible again, as if voters will ignore the last two years.
a vote sample was taken – this in a 70% Brexit constituency – widley tipped to go Tory – and Labour were way out in front on the vote. Not what I expected.
+1 My constituency's the same. Conventioal wisdom says it should go one way, all the evidence I'm seeing (and there's a fair bit) is that it's going a completely different way.
This election is impossible to call. We simply don't know how the seats are going to fall. (From what I'm hearing I don't even trust the raw poll data but that's a seperate issue.)
They are as good an indication as any of how successful the campaign has been so far.
Alright so the fact the gaps have close over the last few weeks would indicate a positive direction?
Agreed, trying to map national polling to local seats is a fools errand.
+1 My constituency’s the same. Conventioal wisdom says it should go one way, all the evidence I’m seeing (and there’s a fair bit) is that it’s going a completely different way.
What are the particulars - out of curiosity?
A look at the newspaper headlines -every day- would tell you Labour is up against it.
Looking at Scotland data above- is Jo Swinson's seat safe?
A look at the newspaper headlines -every day- would tell you Labour is up against it.
For sure - we all accept that.
None of this translates to Binner's suggestion that the Labour campaign is wonky.
Both main parties are a complete shambles.
The trouble with these uber-threads is I can't be arsed to go through to check if the same point has been raised before, but my point with this election is: voting tory seems to be the sensible option to just... get... bl&*dy brexit... done. However, as a remainer (and given only one-third of the voting public voted to leave wayback when), I don't believe in voting in order to help get brexit done. Whilst everyone is sick and tired of the damned issue, I'd rather we keep driving the bus around in circles, than drive the thing right off the edge, right?
Brexit can be stopped, or take years. There is no path to it being “done” quickly. It’s yet another appealing but empty nebulous three word slogan.
Brexit will be super quick.
Fixing the absolute cluster fudge that follows it will take decades. A story utterly absent from all Tory horse poo merchants.
That process will have a new, different, catchy portmanteau name. Probably.
What are the particulars – out of curiosity?
On the surface a very safe blue seat. Lib dems came third last time. Lab 2nd. Leave Majority in the Referendum.
In contrast to what you'd deduce from the above, the facts on the ground seem to me to be:
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
I can't find a blue voter - they've all openly gone Lib Dem.
Outside my house I met a Blue Party member who stood as a Blue councillor in the local elections in the summer campaigning for the yellows!
I can't find a red voter - I've no idea where their votes are going but it isn't to the red candidate – my gut feel is they're either not voting or going blue and don't want to say so.
I'm convinced the numbers are going to be a real shock, maybe even the result.
I'm sure there are other places, like yours where the surprise will be a red win. My point is this election can't be predicted, you can't tell from national polling where votes in the constituencys are going. I wouldn't be ruling out any result at all.
A look at the newspaper headlines -every day- would tell you Labour is up against it.
Maybe but the credible media is telling us this is too close to call. If I were you I'd join the stampede away from print media and stick to the mainstream TV/Radio which is far more reliable with far more news and far less 'comment'.
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
How do you come to these conclusions if you can't find any red or blue voters?
appealing but empty nebulous three word slogan.
Which is easier to remember than Labours policy on Brexit.
What was it again?
Not as simple as a simple lie.
Which is easier to remember than Labours policy on Brexit.
What was it again?
2nd ref on a Norway deal
not that hard to figure out, is it?
The only quick way to get brexit out of the headlines is to remain. If we leave in any terms there'll be a generation of fighting against our former allies.
a Norway deal
It’s not that though, is it.
But what it isn’t is yet another undeliverable promise from a serial liar. The earliest we will effectively be outside the EU, by Johnson’s own reckoning, is over a year away. Whatever replaces EU membership will not be complete and in place, and returning us to a stable position for businesses and families, for years. Years and years of Brexit negotiations and negative changes for individuals and businesses stretch ahead of us under Johnson.
THe big issue is, as said above, people no longer care if things are out-right lies if it meet their world view. It's therefore hard to run a reasonable campaign and get your point across; which is why the tories seem to be doing well by repeating their three-word bullshit mantra.
Also, I'm not sure how many people are even listenting to the campaigns compared to having decided who they would vote for long before the election was called.
The big concern for me is the number of people (over a dozen) I've spoken to in my constituency (a labour marginal where the differnece when the tories took it in 2015 was under 30 votes) who are intelligent, pro-EU, but are sayign they won't vote for Corbyn again so will vote liberal (who had a few percent last time). You can blame the media for mis-representing Corbyn as much as you like but it doesnt change the fact he, or people's impression of him, are putting people off voting labour. I find it mindblowing that people won't hold there nose and vote tactically in such a key marginal but it seems many won't.
Years and years...stretch ahead of us under Johnson.
...And Corbyn, sadly.
There's a three word mantra Labour should get behind
(over a dozen)
Same here. Locally Corbyn is still the block to previous Labour voters voting for the only local candidate that can unseat our no-Deal Brexit advocating Tory MP. I’ve persuaded one or two to hold their noses and back the Labour candidate, but many still will not. One week to go. Keep pressing people to face up to the reality… Johnson must have his majority denied him, vote for whoever can keep your seat out of his hands… try and persuade others to do the same.
Like every public sector they are trying to do more for far less. Workloads are a huge issue,
I've dated a couple of teachers over the years. Even 15-20 years ago the amount of work they brought home - lesson prep, marking etc - was astonishing. And people think teachers have it easy with long summer holidays (when everything is three times the price). If teachers could claim overtime they'd make an absolute mint.
Based on a current sample size of "one" it would appear that TAs do more actual work in the classroom itself (though get to walk away from it at 4pm at least).
I don’t believe in voting in order to help get brexit done. Whilst everyone is sick and tired of the damned issue,
As others have said, there is no done to be got. If we do leave in whatever fashion it won't be the end of anything, it'll just be the beginning.
Voters have been told that the withdrawal agreement is simply a means for getting Brexit done. A way to make the whole thing stop. They deserve to know, not just that the process would drag on for many years to come, but also that it would harm their country in ways that go far beyond a simple cut in GDP.
@kelvin - agreed, I'm keeping on trying. The message in these cases has to be 'you're not voting for Corbyn (zero chance of a majority), you're voting against boris'
For the first time in my life, I really don't know who to vote for.
After 3 years of damaging bickering, I do believe that we need a majority government. Coalitions just tread water and focus on in-fighting rather than moving forward.
Realistically the vote therefore is for Conservative or Labour. If you don't want Labour, you have to vote Conservative, otherwise there would be a hung parliament. If you don't want Conservative, you have to vote Labour as the chance of any of the next tier parties forming a majority government is slim to bugger all.
I have traditionally voted Conservative, but I am a strong Remainer, and despite associating more with the rest of their policies than Labour, their stance on Brexit is a deal breaker for me.
If Labour would get off the fence on Brexit they could get my vote, despite Corbin, who I think is a danger to the country. But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.
Despite their views on Brexit, the Lib Dems are not a realistic choice to form a majority government.
So I genuinely have a dilemma. I want to vote as I believe it is a fundamental obligation and a hard fought right that not everybody in the world has. But literally none of the choices represent me, and despite their manifestos and campaigning BS, there won't be a massive difference between any of them.
Fundamentally politics is broken. Professionally, as a business we all pull together across functions, nations and roles collaboratively, yet our politics are designed to spin and divide rather than all pulling together for the common good (climate, health, education etc - none of which should be politicised).
Grrrrrrrrr.
The vast majority of people are stupid and want an easy life interspersed with the odd laugh and vent at a common enemy. Boris provides the chance to laugh at his buffoonery and rant as to how someone so stupid has achieved such power. If you as the Tories have consistently done, depict a rival in a negative light then Boris's fun appeal only increases. He's a loveable rogue to many which is why sadly the Tories will win.
It’s not that though, is it.
its a norway deal without FOM
but labour conference backed FOM, so if he wants the access of a Norway deal he'll have to concede the FOM of the Norway deal (which is a benefit to the country anyway....) & he can just say that conference voted for it
I’m keeping on trying. The message in these cases has to be ‘you’re not voting for Corbyn (zero chance of a majority), you’re voting against boris’
Same here. A few successes, but some just don’t want their vote to be taken as support for Corbyn. Again. Brick wall. Frustrating.
its a norway deal without FOM
Self contradictory nonsense.
Labour are proposing a customs union with the EU… Norway doesn’t have that. Labour are not proposing EFTA, FoM, or us being a Single Market signatory, all of which are key to Norway’s arrangements with EU & EEA. Labour’s proposals are not based even slightly on the deal that Norway has. Don’t repeat nonsense just because it sounds simple.
why aren’t opposition parties or the media highlighting this to the electorate?
The media are entirely complicit and the leader of the opposition is planning (in the very unlikely event of getting elected) on putting what will end up being a very similar deal back to the electorate, which as a lifelong Brexiteer he will enthusiastically champion.
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
How do you come to these conclusions if you can’t find any red or blue voters?
Like this:
Locally the Red Voters are typically leavers.
The Blue voters are typically remainers.
I conclude this because in the election where UKIP did well ~3500 vots came off Labour at the same time as ~3500 votes went to UKIP. At the election where UKIP fizzled ~3500 vots came off UKIP at the same time as ~3500 votes went to Labour.
The Blue voters typically think Boris is a joke.
I conclude this because I'm involved in a local issue which involves a lot of contact with councillors for the local wards. Most of them are Blue and we all get on well so I know what they think of Boris. I'm extrapolating from them.
You're going to say that neither conlcusion is conclusive, and you're right. That's my point, this election is impossible to call.
If Labour would get off the fence on Brexit they could get my vote, despite Corbin, who I think is a danger to the country. But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.
What fence? They've said they'll sort out a basic withdrawal agreement, put that to a legally binding referendum & go with that result.
I genuinely think that's the only way forward on Brexit now. Do you have a better idea?
Have a look at this website - https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/ it might help.
Self contradictory nonsense.
quite
which is why in the end he will have to accept the Norway deal with FOM
But without that clarity, I cannot vote for them.
I hear this a lot. Many people see what is in front of them as Johnson’s Brexit or Corbyn’s Brexit. Given the choice, I’d pick the latter… but others see that as the worst possible path. Why would a previously Tory voter, who can see the unavoidable damage of Brexit, vote Labour at this election if they see that as likely to result in Brexit still happening, but with Corbyn &Milne &Murray &Len &Co in charge?
I have traditionally voted Conservative, but I am a strong Remainer
You're a strong remainer and are still conflicted on who to vote for in a Tory/labour seat???
You’re a strong remainer and are still conflicted on who to vote for in a Tory/labour seat???
Because…
Corbyn &Co.
And their Brexit.
You’ll get it eventually Daz.
VOTE LABOUR
So I genuinely have a dilemma.
If leave / remain is genuinely the biggest issue for you:
Don't look at the country, look at your own constituency. See who's the biggest threat to the Tories locally, hold your nose and vote for them whoever it is.
As I've said before, for me it's an easy choice. I'm in a Labour seat which for years has consistently held a majority over the Tories by just a couple of hundred votes. Everyone else is a long way behind. Doing anything other than voting Labour, including not voting at all, is effectively a vote for the Tory party for me.
Corbyn &Co.
Bollox. Anyone using this as an excuse to not vote labour is an idiot, especially when the alternative is a lying scumbag and his merry band of bigots and liars (the latest of which is someone who thinks disabled people should be paid less because they're a bit simple). Fair enough if you want to live in a country where you have to pay privately for everything, and you can afford that, but if not, there is only one choice.
On brexit, again there is only one rational choice if you're a remainer. If you want to stop brexit, there is only one way to do it, and only one party offering it.
If you want to be a self-interested **** driven by base reactionary instincts however, then again there is an obvious choice.
Bollox. Anyone using this as an excuse to not vote labour
Time and again I see posts from people who seem to be just looking for excuses (not just here but generally). Iraq war, tuition fees, Corbyn, etc etc.
You might think Corbyn is literally Beelzebub incarnate but this is a general election with stakes that could impact the lives your grandchildren's kids, not a popularity contest.
On brexit, again there is only one rational choice if you’re a remainer.
Yes. Vote tactically against the Tories.
If you want to stop brexit, there is only one way to do it, and only one party offering it.
Correct, but those two statements may not carry the same answer.
You might think Corbyn is literally Beelzebub incarnate
Good point well made.
but this is a general election with stakes that could impact the lives your grandchildren’s kids, not a popularity contest.
Absolutely. Vote for anyone but Beelzebub incarnate.
Yes. Vote tactically against the Tories.
Yes, absolutely, I was specifically referring to the case of solarider there.
Anyone using this as an excuse to not vote labour is an idiot,
Bit rich coming from someone who has consistently railed against brexiteers being labelled stupid 😉
I think two things get conflated with the dislike of Corbyn
1) A perception that he isn't a 'good' leader
2) A perception that his policies are too hard left - which may be rational from the more centrist blairite labour voter.
Neither things are necessarily idioit to belive.. whether they are correct or not is another question.
If you want to stop brexit, there is only one way to do it, and only one party offering it.
LibDem are the only big party offering it. But I don't think that's what you meant.
I'm in a tory held constituency which was leave at the referendum.
Have received one campaign leaflet - from the tories; wasted on me as I won't be voting for their candidate.
No doorstepping by any candidates; I'm wfh for a while so unlikely I've missed any campaigners.
That suggests apathy on the part of candidates.
If there was ever an election where parties should be out there campaigning and drumming up support, it's this one.
Good point well made.
Devil incarnate indeed....
That suggests apathy on the part of candidates.
Smugness on the part of the Tory party
Fear on the Labour front
Have received one campaign leaflet – from the tories; wasted on me as I won’t be voting for their candidate.
No doorstepping by any candidates; I’m wfh for a while so unlikely I’ve missed any campaigners.
That suggests apathy on the part of candidates.
If there was ever an election where parties should be out there campaigning and drumming up support, it’s this one.
Campaigners are volunteers. If you think there's not enough political volunteer action going on in your area, pick a party and volunteer for them.
If you can't be arsed, why should anyone else bother?
If you want to be a self-interested ****
Which party are you saying is the one to vote for in my own best interests and which are the ones that aren't in my self-interest?
You’re a strong remainer and are still conflicted on who to vote for in a Tory/labour seat???
Because…
Corbyn &Co.
And their Brexit.
You’ll get it eventually Daz.
If you are a strong remainer task no.1 is to reduce the number of Tory seats as much as possible. That means voting for the party with the best chance of defeating them in your constituency. Traditional party allegiances are irrelevant in this election. There will come a time for that later.
I’m in a tory held constituency which was leave at the referendum.
Have received one campaign leaflet – from the tories; wasted on me as I won’t be voting for their candidate.
No doorstepping by any candidates; I’m wfh for a while so unlikely I’ve missed any campaigners.
That suggests apathy on the part of candidates.
If there was ever an election where parties should be out there campaigning and drumming up support, it’s this one.
Is it a safe Tory seat?
If so many activists will spend the time in nearby constituencies that are more likely to switch. It's all about maximizing impact with the time they have.
oob, I know campaigners are volunteers but thanks anyway.
If any party wants my vote they should make an effort to earn it; are they campaigning on national issues? What impact will their candidate's party policies have in my constituency?
I can't be arsed, according to you; htf would you know?
Just thought why doesn't the BBC change the host for tonight's debate to Andrew Neil at the last minute and invite Corbyn to pull a sickie?
I'd Corbyn there, I'd just brief Neil not to ask him any questions until Johnson has squirmed for 30 minutes exactly.
Bit rich coming from someone who has consistently railed against brexiteers being labelled stupid
See my earlier reply to dannyh on this.
Good thread here
I do think Corbyn has been crap but Tories ability to monster Labour leaders via the rw press cannot be underestimated
Corbyn has more baggage to pin on him than most though
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1202982273483718656?s=19
I can't see anything other than a Tory majority now, even if the labour youth vote holding up its not going to be in the right place (too metroplitain)
Just as a point of interest, scrolling through this one page of this thread I have been served 11 identical ads for the local independent hard Brexit gammon candidate. Everywhere I go online I see his odious face. I wonder who’s paying for that?
British diplomat resigns over having to 'peddle half-truths' on Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50693537
That is the truth about where the Conbrexit parties have put us
Good point well made.
Devil incarnate indeed….
Maybe not. Monbiot, on the other hand, is a supremely annoying, virtue-signalling hypocrite, so I'm not certain that his endorsement is worth anything.
JP
Monbiot, on the other hand, is a supremely annoying, virtue-signalling hypocrite, so I’m not certain that his endorsement is worth anything.
In your opinion, which you are entitled to. What is a fact is that when he writes and article, he nearly always puts a fully reference version on his website. That makes his journalism far more transparent and verifiable than all the rest. I'm sure I've heard of a journo who just made stuff up and reported it as fact, the exact opposite of Monbiot, the name just won't come. I'm sure I've heard it a lot recently
Monbiot has written some great stuff.
I don't agree with everything he says but he's one of the decent journalists/authors with a moral compass.
I think, but i can't be sure, that his name may have been slang for a male appendage?
Morris… something?
Bojo seems on his best behaviour in that picture, I have no doubts that every instinct he has is compelling him to burn money in the homeless mans face while shouting LOSER!!!! Just like in his bullingdon days.
The local candidates attended a debate at Jnrs 6rh Form college today, then a "vote" was held, something like 600 kids took part
Labour - 44%
Green - 35%
Tory - no idea, apparently an idiot
LibDem - no idea, also came across badly
Independent Change party - 0.5% quite a nationally known idiot
Sounds like it got a bit feisty, the right wing people started having a go at the kids questioning them, the Tory caved in when a 17 year old asked him why Universal Credit had destroyed her family.
As for "not voting for Corbyn", I don't like strawberry creams, but I still prefer Cadbury Roses
Strong words from Pie. Even for Pie. I feel pretty much identically the same way with another 30 mins tacked on about Blair, Cameron, Clegg and Farage, tabloids, antisocial media and How The **** We Got Here Now While Watching It Happen
Jezza did will there (sticks in the craw a bit)
Bozza got the soundbytes out though, and that's what will get parroted the media and the ****osphere
Five more years of sliding further in to the mire
Get Brexit done solves everything. Everything. Tampons etc.
Corbyn covered a wide range of topics whilst Johnson simply kept coming back to his "let's get Brexit done" mantra irrespective of the topic under discussion.