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Labour are wise to avoid a 2019 election, but they need to do so in a way that isn’t fuelling Johnson’s “chicken” narrative
They've been totally outplayed there. Jez has spent the last year or so demanding an election. (Hansard in September showed he'd already asked for one 16 times in the House in 2019).
"Yeah, just not now" is going to be easily ridiculed in our age of politics by soundbite.
One of the greatest successes of the political right has been to conflate Marxism, Communism and Maoism with Socialism. The fact that the Nordic countries are profoundly socialist and offer paid childcare, free education, subsidised public transport etc passes most people by. Naturally, the tax burden is higher but it doesn't seem to harm their respective economies.
People seem shocked to learn that the starting rate of tax was 30% and the top tax rate 60% during the early years of the Thatcher government.
Back on topic. The SNP and Lib Dem tactic behind pushing for an early election on the 9th is simple - they're trying to highlight Boris' chicanery, they know full well that Johnson's team won't agree to an election on the 9th Dec. Make no mistake, it's about closing down Johnson's avenues towards a defacto "no deal".
Exactly my point. So the lib dems are abandoning any pretence at stopping brexit in favour of gaining more MPs and hopefully being part of a future coalition with the tories. Glad we cleared that up.
I don't think it's that clear cut. That's far too simplistic a view.
This election is going to be like no other. There is now virtually no such thing as a safe seat. The votes are going to split 5 ways and deliver some weird old results in a wide range of constituencies. You're assuming that it'll be a 2 party coalition. It's quite possible that this is going to blow the whole idea of working majorities out of the window. If that happens there's going to have to be some serious horse-trading going on between all the parties and they're, somewhat ironically, going to have a to adopt a more European way of doing things
As for potential coalitions… any statements about who you will and won’t work with will go out of the window half a millisecond after a hung parliament with no overall majority
This.
...but we can be pretty sure the Libdems will make the first condition of any deal with a party the removal of Corbyn/Boris and we can be 100pc sure that a party in some kind of power on a 'stop Brexit' mandate won't be able to do anything that makes Brexit more likely.
Also I don't accept the premise that the Lib Dems can't win. They're polling neck and neck with Labour and they will appeal to the 50pc of the electorate who voted remain while the 50pc who voted leave are split between Tories and BP.
A sovereign country can’t run out of cash either.
It can if it needs imports, obvs.
Historically once you take all the means of production, distribution, and exchange into state ownership
NO-ONE is proposing that. That is literally a straw man argument. Stop it.
I also struggle to see how people are persuaded to vote against parties that would give them things like free childcare. Who enjoys paying for childcare?
the Nordic countries are profoundly socialist
No they're not.
Socialism is:
a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.
All the Nordic countries have tons of private enterprise.
free childcare.
*Free*
I don’t *think* the person who originally brought up was using it specifically in relation to Labour either.
You could always read what I actually typed:
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer……
we’ve never needed a decent democratic socialist government as much as we do now.The last Labour manifesto, you know, the only one that was independantly costed was just fine in my eyes.
The addition of scrapping private education is just the icing on the cake.And what’s wrong with direct action?
By all means let’s have Starmer as leader.
As long as he pledges to push through a democratic socialist manifesto containing the key points of the previous one.
I was using the term in relation to the Labour Party.
A democratic political party, born of socialist principles.
However, I really should have known better by now.....
That is literally a straw man argument.
Explain how.
I also struggle to see how people are persuaded to vote against parties that would give them things like free childcare. Who enjoys paying for childcare?
I had this dilemma at the last election. Free childcare is a powerful bribe for me - I pay over £1500 a month on childcare and it's crippling. But it all came down to do I believe for one second that Labour could deliver that? And the answer was no, it's not affordable. Now if Labour want to pay me 36,000 up-front for two years worth and guarantee I'd personally be no worse of in other ways I'd willingly vote for them. ...and yes that does all sound silly, which is why some people vote against parties who offer free childcare - it's not credible.
I was using the term in relation to the Labour Party.
Ok, sorry. Maybe you can address Dezb and Molgrip's objections - I'm getting flack that should be aimed at you.
But it all came down to do I believe for one second that Labour could deliver that? And the answer was no, it’s not affordable.
Ever heard the phrase 'never look a gift horse in the mouth'? So you would reject a policy that will directly and massively benefit you because of your doubts that it will happen, even though your rejection of that would ensure that is the case? The mind bogges!
a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.
Key word in your quote is regulated. Private enterprise is fine but it needs to be regulated for the interest of society.
All the Nordic countries have tons of private enterprise.
They also have state owned industries so, by your approach, they cant count as capitalist either.
Which is correct. They are a mixed economy with (although its been changes) a tendancy towards the socialist side of things. Also as Kerley points out they have lots of regulation.
You seem to be taking a very simplistic and purist view of socialism excluding anything but the most pure version as socialism whilst sticking everything else under the capitalism banner which is just as inaccurate.
Ever heard the phrase ‘never look a gift horse in the mouth’? So you would reject a policy that will directly and massively benefit you because of your doubts that it will happen, even though your rejection of that would ensure that is the case?
Yes. For a bribe to work it has to be credible. Seriously, if a party offered you and a massive number of other voters £36,000 over two years to vote for them, would that have any effect on your vote? Of course not, you'd just think nah, can't be done.
...and I'm bribe-able. Many other voters would think that 36k would be better off going to a disabled person and not vote for it for that reason.
Lots of reasons to shun the pork barrel.
They also have state owned industries so, by your approach, they cant count as capitalist either.
Yup. So what? I'm arguing they're not socialist. I'm not saying they're capitalist. They mixtures, like the UK.
Ok, sorry. Maybe you can address Dezb and Molgrip’s objections – I’m getting flack that should be aimed at you.
No you're getting flack for being stubborn, obtuse and refusing to answer questions.
For a bribe to work it has to be credible.
If at this point in time we didn't have 'free' education up to 18 years old, you'd be arguing it wasn't possible and unaffordable. Same with the health service. Yet clearly both are, because they both exist. The same is true with childcare, higher education and other existing or potential state-provided services. Yes they have to be paid for, but the state has funding methods at it's disposal which the private sector doesn't, and also the economies of scale. you get much more value for money from the taxes you pay than anything you spend privately. The only people who tell us this isn't possible are the small amount of people who stand to lose out because they lose the profits they otherwsie would gain.
No you’re getting flack for being stubborn, obtuse and refusing to answer questions.
You brought up socialism *in relation to Labour*. I didn't. That's what got them all hot under the collar!
What question am I'm refusing to answer?
What's wrong with direct action?
And regards to being obtuse, please answer daz's points above.
Free childcare is a powerful bribe for me – I pay over £1500 a month on childcare and it’s crippling.
Free childcare is much more than just a financial help. Mostly it's the women who end up staying home to look after kids - because they take their maternity leave and then before you know it they're the ones who become the primary caregiver and so it goes on. This all goes into the general murky pot of sexist attitudes. So we have millions of women who are economically under-active and their earning potential is diminished. But more than that - their economic output is diminished. There are many women who could be productive assets to the economy who are forced to take part time low-skilled work. That's not to mention the single parents who can't go out to work because who's going to look after the kids and how the hell do they afford childcare? So they sit at home not working and not developing skills. Maybe women end up being trapped in poor relationships because they can't afford to leave?
Free childcare would have a massive knock-on effect all through society, not just for women. It'd boost our economy significantly in the long run IMO.
But it all came down to do I believe for one second that Labour could deliver that? And the answer was no, it’s not affordable.
It's not affordable now, it's not acheivable in the short term. But three or four Labour administrations on the trot, it wouldn't seem so far fetched.
If at this point in time we didn’t have ‘free’ education up to 18 years old, you’d be arguing it wasn’t possible and unaffordable. Same with the health service. Yet clearly both are, because they both exist. The same is true with childcare, higher education and other existing or potential state-provided services. Yes they have to be paid for, but the state has funding methods at it’s disposal which the private sector doesn’t, and also the economies of scale. you get much more value for money from the taxes you pay than anything you spend privately. The only people who tell us this isn’t possible are the small amount of people who stand to lose out because they lose the profits they otherwsie would gain.
Maybe I misunderstood the policy then, I thought they were just going to pay for childcare in existing providers in the same (underhand) way the existing (not) free entitlement does(n't).
They are a mixed economy with (although its been changes) a tendancy towards the socialist side of things.
Social democracy.
It’s not affordable now, it’s not acheivable in the short term.
Indeed.
They mixtures, like the UK.
I must be missing your argument then. What are you trying to argue with regards to PJMs point?
Free childcare would have a massive knock-on effect all through society,
There is also some interesting evidence around how it would impact the current demographic decline in those countries which have adopted it on a large scale.
What are you trying to argue with regards to PJMs point?
See the post in which I replied to it.
See the post in which I replied to it.
I have. I am not sure what your objection is. Do you expect everything to be qualified?
So we’re back on for Dec 12th then. There’s almost no chance the Lib Dem’s will be able to resist the temptation of having a few moe MPs. The most important election in decades at a time which guarantees the lowest possible turnout. You couldn’t make it up.
Thought they voted against the 12th.
Anytime in December would be a crazy time to have an election. But will we be out of the EU by Xmas if we don’t have an election though? I still think the election will be in 2020, but I don’t know what’s going on in Westminster… official talks between Johnson and Corbyn (and Cummings and Milne) to get the Withdrawal Agreement legislation timetable sorted seemed to be genuine, even if they failed… could there be more going on between the two biggest parties to ‘get Brexit done’ before an election? The SNP first, and then the LibDems, seem spooked, for sure. On the surface their current moves look very odd.
The most important election in decades at a time which guarantees the lowest possible turnout. You couldn’t make it up.
While the optics for turn-out are bad, I was listening to a discussion the other day that said they stack up worse for “typical” Labour voters than “typical” Tory. It’s a shit time for an election though, that’s true.
Aaaand it's off again. Swinson looks like she's bottled it. Apparently the 12th is no good, but the 9th is absolutely fine. As long as she gets to say it was her election date, and no one elses. Anyone care to explain what difference 3 days makes? And yet everyone says the labour party are the 6th formers, and some on here even think she might be the next PM. Clueless.
Anyone care to explain what difference 3 days makes?
Stops BJ brexiting before the election
BBC News - Brexit election: Lib Dems and SNP plan to force earlier poll
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50194685
Stops BJ brexiting before the election
Yep best chance there is of stopping johnson from getting his del thru, with the help of labour mps
Anyone care to explain what difference 3 days makes?
It's already been explained in this thread (or the other one). It's to prevent a pre-election Brexit.
Aaaand it’s off again. Swinson looks like she’s bottled it. Apparently the 12th is no good, but the 9th is absolutely fine.
I thought that was her plan anyway. 9th to avoid Brexit before election.
All change again. Withdrawal Agreement legislation parked according to Rees-Mogg at the dispatch box. Election legislation to be rushed. SNP and LibDem support for a super snappy election now seems unlikely to me… why bother if Brexit legislation now put to one side? 2020 election? Maybe after a referendum? Who knows…
How easy is it to all of a sudden overturn the FTPA?
Why not before now?
How easy is it to all of a sudden overturn the FTPA?
No parliament can constrain future parliaments so it can be overturned with a simple majority of one.
Why not before now?
Because the government doesn't have a simple majority of one. Plus amendments. Plus they always had something better to try.
Because the government doesn’t have a simple majority of one. Plus amendments. Plus they always had something better to try.
So it could only happen because the Dems put it out there?
Why not before now?
This is a fair assessment of why now.....
https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/24/remain-should-push-for-an-election
So it could only happen because the Dems put it out there?
Yup, Dems and SNP are the only opposition parties willing to kick this Government out of office and do something practical to get Art50 revoked.
The irony of all this is that if this election is to stop Brexit as the stated aim of LD and SNP - then it needs to deliver a Labour led Govt - this maybe a minority with support from SNP, LD and others. But any other even vaguely feasible result either leaves stalemate or a Boris Johnson deal Brexit
If the LD and SNP are playing this straight they are relying on a Labour surge as per 2017 to deliver their stated objective
Yup, Dems and SNP are the only opposition parties willing to kick this Government out of office and do something practical to get Art50 revoked.
That will not happen. Can't see it.
I think we could see labour backing this today now that Johnson has withdrawn the brexit bill. By all accounts Corbyn and others on the left are pushing for it and it's the centrists who have cold feet. The student vote aside, the 12th may not be so bad as labour have a huge ground operation which the tories don't have which will be of huge benefit in getting the vote out.
he irony of all this is that if this election is to stop Brexit as the stated aim of LD and SNP – then it needs to deliver a Labour led Govt – this maybe a minority with support from SNP, LD and others
For sure.
Siwndleson won't do that as she puts power/increased seats above Brexit.
Bit cocky for someone in a with a smallish majority and who lost to the SNP in 2015.
I think we could see labour backing this today now that Johnson has withdrawn the brexit bill.
Yeah. Let's do it.
Will certainly make Xmas different.
I await proposed amendments to the Early Election Bill with interest.
I'd go for the " If no party wins an overall majority in the GE then that immediately triggers a properly scrutinised, legally binding, 2nd brexit referendum" option to establish conclusively what the will of the people actually is.
Boris wants to Get Brexit Done. That'll sort it either way.
if this election is to stop Brexit as the stated aim of LD and SNP – then it needs to deliver a Labour led Govt
Not true. The lib dems are the only party with remain as their policy. They're neck and neck with Labour in the polls and seat distribution is impossible to calculate. For the first time in 100 years, and perhaps for the last time the Libdems could win. Tories and Labour are both losing votes to BP and Lib dems. (The only reason to vote Labour this time is habit since their Brexit policy is to offer a glorified coin toss.)
The student vote aside, the 12th may not be so bad
Students can easily arrange postal votes, I expect they already do. I think the 12th will be fine.
” If no party wins an overall majority in the GE then that immediately triggers a properly scrutinised, legally binding, 2nd brexit referendum”
A big yes to this from me. I'm opposed to all referendums on this topic (and most others) but that totally overcomes all my objections.
If the LD and SNP are playing this straight they are relying on a Labour surge as per 2017 to deliver their stated objective
Not necessarily.
If the SNP & Lib Dems manage to take No Deal away from Blohard before an election, then the tory vote would be diluted at the GE by the Brexit Party. Furthermore, with No Deal removed from any form of tory inspired Brexit, the tories would be split in Government as the ERG and Moggists are desperate for a No Deal Brexit and would probably vote against any softening of Brexit.
So IMO, the SNP & Lib Dems aren't relying on a Labour surge but gambling on splitting the tory party over Brexit and diluting their vote.
Will 9th or 12th December be achievable if the option to include 16/17 year old is accepted?
I await proposed amendments to the Early Election Bill with interest.
The reason Boris didn't go for this earlier was due to the fear of amendments scuppering his brexit plans. At the very least I would expect an amendment to rule out a no deal under any circumstances. If that is passed then labour will support it as that's been their position all along.
I also note quotes from Diane Abbott in shadow cabinet. You really have to marvel at the sheer cowardice of the centrists. Whining f***** the lot of them.
Not true. The lib dems are the only party with remain as their policy.
Not true. I suspect your logic is that of Swinson and co though. The lure of power outweighs the risks.
Will 9th or 12th December be achievable if the option to include 16/17 year old is accepted?
That does seem somewhat suspect and gesture politics. Even if it managed to get passed the logistics seem hard to get through in the time frame.
Will 9th or 12th December be achievable if the option to include 16/17 year old is accepted?
Who knows but 16/17yo should not be allowed to vote IMHO. Or if they are considered worthy of that responsibility then all the other legislation that protects/limits them because they are children needs to change to reflect their new status as fully rational responsible adults. (Alcohol, driving, Children's Act).
The lib dems are the only party with remain as their policy.
Not true.
Which other party has remain as their policy?
Seems to me that the Tories/BP are leave, the Libdems are remain and all the others are the coin toss of a referendum.
I would expect an amendment to rule out a no deal under any circumstances.
A future Parliament cannot be held by any such amendment
Voting for 16/17 year olds is a SNP policy. It's hardly "gesture politics" for them to suggest it this time around. Note that they also want to include EU nationals resident in the UK.
If you can join the armed forces or get married when 16 then you should definitely have the right to vote.
What a total cluster.
At this point in time I feel I have nothing to add except for continuing posting subsistence-budget meal-recipes and dad-jokes.
When did this country become two competing species of rat floating on a leaking ship stranded in the doldrums? Uncle Sam will be along shortly to mop up.
“centrists” … “lure of power” …
And then getting all excited at the idea of Labour falling in behind the tactics of the SNP and LibDems derided only yesterday …
Tribalism is odd.
I still think a December election is an awful idea, but Johnson has managed to make it look essential to stop Brexit happening first (with the help of a few Labour MPs). I can’t see this ending well.
the Libdems are remain and all the others are the coin toss of a referendum.
So,by this logic, you are saying the Libdems have only recently become a remain party. Curious.
I think the LibDems have been pretty clear “for a while” that they want Brexit stopped. At the recent Labour conference they voted to decide after the next general election whether they want Brexit stopped, to chants and singing of the leader’s name. So, yes, Labour still have a coin flip policy… perhaps it’s a clever plan to keep people on side who want lots of different Brexit outcomes… if you give them the benefit of the doubt. We’ll see how that pans out all too soon it seems…
For the first time in 100 years, and perhaps for the last time the Libdems could win.
What odds are you giving against that happening as I will have a £1,000 on it please. In no way ever are the lib dems going to come close to winning.
There's no road long enough for Labour to kick the can down.
The SNP are also a remain party. And are bigger than the Lib Dems
I think the LibDems have been pretty clear “for a while” that they want Brexit stopped.
Not by outofbreaths definition.
So, yes, Labour still have a coin flip policy
Or, as it is otherwise known, giving the confirmatory choice to the people. Admittedly a bit of a coin flip but then again that is the Libdems true position as well if we ignore the yellow unicorns.
Do Labour want Brexit?
[a reminder that I’m voting Labour, and would urge most of you to do so as well (depending on which seat your are in), but this pretence about LibDem policy on Brexit from Labour supporters is nonsense]
So,by this logic, you are saying the Libdems have only recently become a remain party.
Yes, I am, before that they were a referendum party.
Indeed Vince Cable called for an EU referendum in 2007 and an EU referendum was in their manifesto in 2010, so they've had a long recent history of not being a remain party.
The SNP are also a remain party.
They're not, they want a referendum. They're arguing for a 50/50 coin flip with leave as one of the options.
Beyond that, if the SNP have been offered a No Deal exit from the UK and the EU in 2014 (or today) they'd would bite your arm off.
but this pretence about LibDem policy on Brexit from Labour supporters is nonsense]
a)I am not a Labour supporter and b) its outofbreaths definition.
As for the Libdems. I prefer something a bit more solid than their yellow unicorns. I find it fascinating that people rant and rave about Labour lack of precision but dont ask the questions about what exactly Libdems are offering. If I tactically vote for them what will happen if they dont get a majority. What will they want on the ballot paper? Considering their consistent attacks on Labour will they try and force a new leader more in their mould?
Corbyn fan boi Paul Mason has just been on Five Live explaining Labours Brexit Policy.
The preference is still very much Red Unicorns. He said that the northern labour constituancies want a labour government but also want the referendum result honoured and for us to leave the EU. Tellingly, he made no mention of a second referendum.
Considering their consistent attacks on Labour will they try and force a new leader more in their mould?
YES. There is no way the lib dems will work with Corbyn or Boris in government. Whatever happens they will make it conditional on the party they work with having a credible leader. Which frankly won't be a problem, because they can't work with the Torys because the Torys have put all their eggs in a leave basket and Corbyn will go anyway if he doesn't win outright.
(Ok, we don't know all of that but we can make a pretty shrewd guess.)
It's on. Corbyn has confirmed they will support an election. It's a relief, if only for the fact that the thread title is correct again 🙂
*endless screaming*
Right… can I geolock my posts for the next two months? I’d like to be posting tactically based on where other contributors get to post their votes, ‘till this next messy stage is over.
If you’re in Calderdale, vote Labour.
I beg you.
For the first time in 100 years, and perhaps for the last time the Libdems could win.
What odds are you giving against that happening as I will have a £1,000 on it please.
I don't bet ever but if I did I wouldn't bet on this. This is the hardest election to predict in our lifetimes.
It’s on. Corbyn has confirmed they will support an election.
That can’t be right Tory fan boys and leavers tell us he’s too scared.
Everyone 16 or over can get themselves on the electoral register… if you know anyone not registered yet, give them a nudge today. Just. In. Case.
Bless him. Grandad just wants this nightmare to be over so he can toddle off and spend more time with his aubergines.
Pity it means a hard brexit and 5 years of Boris Johnson for the rest of us...
Do we know why LibDems and SNP are lobbying to not have votes for 16+ included as an amendment to the GE bill going before Parliament?
Bless him. Grandad just wants this nightmare to be over so he can toddle off and spend more time with his aubergines.
I hadn't thought of it that way. 6 more weeks of hell and then he can resign and have best Xmas of his life in total peace. [1]
Of course the poor old chap might win... 🙁
[1] Safe in the knowledge he succeeded in opening the way for a Socialist Britain by getting us out of the evil neo-liberal EU.