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He stops LibDem and Labour gains in currently Tory held seats, while still taking votes off of Labour in a few Labour held seats.
Don’t forget, his “party” has never seriously been a party aimed at getting MPs into parliament… he has held the Tories feet to the fire and helped transform their party into the new UKIP… this move today is to stop there being some combination of opposition parties keeping the Tories out of government long enough to hold another referendum.
What’s the Quid Pro Quo for Farage then?
Seat in the Lords? So he can take a bunch of cash whilst not bothering to do much. Be just like the European Parliament days for him. Although downside is he would need to turn up more often I think.
That or its just what Putin told him to do.
He was demanding that Boris drop the WA and go for No Deal in return for pretty much the same thing a couple of weeks back. He said that the WA was Brexit in Name Only etc. Has Boris done a deal to move closer to that position in return for the chance of a majority?
He’s promised that the transition period will end next year, and there is now no all UK backstop that keeps anything in place after transition for Scotland, England & Wales.
If only labour had spent the past 3 years making the case to the labour heartlands brexiters that this is a right wing con job that will destroy them not free them.
Have they not been doing that? Every time I hear labour talk about brexit all I hear is stuff about Trump and his mates buying the NHS, destruction of workers rights and environmental protections, becoming an offshore tax haven, sweatshop manufacturing etc.
Also why is it that when it comes to remain voters labour should 'listen' and be more centrist, but when it comes to leavers they should put their foot down and tell them they're wrong. You can't have it both ways.
kelvin
Many target seats for the Tories rely on ex-Labour voters who no longer consider Labour as the party for the patriotic working class voter turning to Farage’s joke candidates. It makes little sense, but there you are.
Much as it shouldn't make sense it obviously does for them.
As I said pages and pages ago ... a GE or a referendum is incredibly foolish if those ex-labour voters feel no-one is listening to them except the BXP.
The reality is that the BXP provides somewhere "not Tory" for people to vote that on the face of it is basically saying "vote for us and we hear your concerns".
Meanwhile the push for the lowest bar continues in campaigning....
This will still win the Tories some seats off of Labour that they wouldn’t win without a Brexit Party candidate sitting. If you can’t see why and how, well…
By way of example?
Electoral Calculus now has Tory majority of 114 seats - up from 90 yesterday with prediction of any Tory majority at 69% - up from 60% yesterday.
frankconway
Subscriber
dissonance – if candidate nomination forms have not been submitted, deposits will not have been paid; deadline is 4pm on Thursday this week.
Candidate pays deposit.
This isnt about nomination
BXP ltd isnt a normal party, to be considered as a BXP candidate you had to pay Farage £100 !
This will still win the Tories some seats off of Labour that they wouldn’t win without a Brexit Party candidate sitting. If you can’t see why and how, well…
But that only kicks in if more Labour voters switch to Brexit than Tory voters. I suppose this could include a fair number of 'I dont care how but just get on with it' crowd.
By way of example?
How many examples do you want? Lots of seats where a Brexit Party candidate could well take enough votes off of Labour for the Conservatives to win the seat off of them.
But that only kicks in if more Labour voters switch to Brexit than Tory voters.
Yes, this is true, which might only be 20 or so seats… but those might well map closely onto the Labour seats the Tories are targeting. It’s not going to have the same effect all over the country, but that’s FPTP for you… it only needs to be a strong effect in a small number of seats to swing the election.
They have been afraid for too long to tell them they were wrong
You have no idea how people work. The whole point of democracy is that it's the other way round. In reality, the media tell people what to think and the politicians fall over themselves to agree with as many people as possible. Telling the electorate they are wrong, especially on an emotive issue.. well.. not even Labour are that daft.
The way I see it, it means the far right vote wont get diluted by BXP in Tory safe seats, so those safe seats will either stay tory or lose to lab lib.
Result - no gains for tory, potentially, if unlikely a few tory losses.
In seats where BXP do stand, they could end up diluting the far right vote between BXP and Tory, allowing a Lab or lib gain.
Equally it could go the other way and allow a BXP candidate to take the seat from Lab/Lib, HOWEVER, given how bad FPTP was for UKIP the last few GE's, that might mean teh sum total of sweet FA.
IDS told BBC Radio 4’s the World at One programme: “Well I would hope that this is the start of the Brexit Party recognising that even standing across the board in those sort of seats will also end up helping those Labour incumbents who are sitting there worrying at the moment about the fact that they have a very, very large Leave vote, and if that is split, then that means they might just sneak through.
“Which could be the difference between us winning a majority, and only becoming the majority party and of course winning a majority is critical, if you want to deliver Brexit and Boris to stay.”
Remeber, Tories have 198 MPs currently, they need to make a net gain of seats (so no lost seats) of about 22 seats for a majority.
How many examples do you want? Lots of seats where a Brexit Party candidate could well take enough votes off of Labour for the Conservatives to win the seat off of them.
That doesn't take into account that the BXP candidate may well take a bunch from the Tories too.
Remeber, Tories have 198 MPs currently
Typo. You meant 298.
Sounds like some of the brexit party ex-candidates are now going to be standing as Independent Brexit Party (this time its really a party and not a business) candidates.
That doesn’t take into account that the BXP candidate may well take a bunch form the Tories too.
I have taken that into account. There are some seats where the Brexit party are mopping up ex-Labour voters who think Corbyn is anti-British (I don’t think that) and are willing to vote ‘Brexit’ but would never vote Tory. In those seats many Tory voters have returned to the Conservative Party thanks to Johnson talking all the strong man no surrender bullshit. Most seats aren’t like this, but some of the Tory target seats currently held by Labour are.
There's an awful lot of pointless whataboutery going on here. The point about tactical voting is that it should be voter led. All this 'A should stand down for B' or vice versa is massively counter-productive and is also massively patronising. The voters know when they are being taken for fools, and I'm confident they'll response accordingly. Many BP voters won't take kindly to being told to vote tory, and many won't. The more parties try to engineer the result, the more voters will react against it.
Where does this confidence come from?
Do you think the Greens standing down in our seat will result in more votes for Labour?
You have absolutely no idea whether increasing the highest rate of income tax and the level of corporation tax for larger companies by a few % points would be counterproductive at all… you’re just guessing…
Sure I do. We have loads of actual data so no need to mess around with pure theoreticals or guess.
A few points is a bit vague but as you say, it depends on a range of factors. We do know just how far you can go before it becomes counterproductive from a huge amount of data collected across lots of countries for many years.
Denying that just allows politicians to make outlandish claims that have 0 chance of happening. Bit like the 350 million a day we are going to save as soon as Boris gets his majority.
Do you think the Greens standing down in our seat will result in more votes for Labour?
I do. But Calderdale is a special case, where the tory majority was less than the number of green votes last time. Even with that I don't think it will work, because there will be enough die-hard remainers voting for the libdems to extend Whittaker's majority (I hope I'm wrong!).
As for my confidence, I'm not confident the BP stand down in tory seats will not help the tories, because it will. But I fundamentally disagree with trying to engineer the results by standing down candidates, and think the majority of voters do too. Tactical voting is fine, but it has to be the voter's decision, not the parties by standing down candidates.
Sorry to block quote, but it's easier than paraphrasing:
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, has poured cold water on suggestions Nigel Farage has swun the election for Boris Johnson and the Tories.
In a blog post titled ‘Farage’s election stand-down will make little difference’, he points out that the Brexit Party was already trending downwards in the polls.
“The most important swing to look at in the polls is the one between Labour and the Conservatives. Despite a move away from two-party politics since the last election, it is still the case that most marginal seats are battles between Labour and the Conservatives, and this is the most important dynamic in deciding who will be celebrating Christmas in 10 Downing Street.”
He concludes: “So overall, despite today’s drama, this is unlikely to be a game-changing moment.”
molgrips
You have no idea how people work. The whole point of democracy is that it’s the other way round. In reality, the media tell people what to think and the politicians fall over themselves to agree with as many people as possible. Telling the electorate they are wrong, especially on an emotive issue.. well.. not even Labour are that daft.
There is or was a time and place where/when/how .... a minimum amount of votes would be lost and maximum gained and another time and how that potentially see's the maximum lost and minimum gained.
One way or another Labour were going to lose votes if they did this but they could potentially have also picked up a great deal of "anything but Tory" voters. (like myself)
Personally I like Corbyn as a person ... and I actually repect him but I don't respect his all-or-nothing and fence sitting. I'm fundamentally a remainer because it's my identity ... I'm European by outlook.... however that aside I think the major benefit of the EU politically rather than economically (which should be a no brainer)... is that it actually acts to prevent the excesses between the ultra-wings at both sides.
I think if Corbyn was world president we might have a decent world but in the real world I just see fantasy red unicorns...
Good to see the brexit company havent remembered to take down their page about why Johnsons deal isnt a proper brexit.
Stolen from ****ter:
As Nigel Farage takes £100 from would-be candidates before unilaterally deciding they won’t stand, Brexit Party members get to know what it really feels like to send sums of money to undemocratic, unelected leaders.
Heheh!
I still am not buying the supposed tory majority
As well as the 22 gains they are also going to lose most of the Scottish tories. With polling where it is I just don't see it
Is someone going to have a word with grandad and remind him that expressing support for dodgy, corrupt South American narco-states is fine when you’re an anonymous backbencher, but when you’re in an election campaign where you want to be PM, all it does is write tomorrow’s Daily Mail headlines for them
With polling where it is I just don’t see it
You’ve worked out some key points…
• SNP will get close to 2015 number of MPs
• LibDems will only get about 30 seats, at best
But you’re in denial about one big one…
• Labour will do worse than in 2017
And ‘polling where it is’ suggests that quite strongly.
Of course this can all change (and I hope it does) but current polling suggests a Tory Majority… and that needs to be chipped away at seat by seat, by all parties. Things need to change. My Social Media is full of Greens condemning other Greens, Labour wittering on about Swinson, LibDems banging on about Corbyn, Labour getting angry about a Scottish Referendum… the Tories are laughing their coke filled heads off.
And polling where it is suggests that quite strongly.
At this point in the 2017 election (one month to go), what did the polling suggest then?
Much the same. And then the Labour manifesto was leaked, and people were surprised that they liked what they saw. Will we have an event like that this time? Can Corbyn surprise people two years later? I think things will turn towards Labour later in the campaign, but not as much as in 2017… because people have noticed how their Labour vote in 2017 was used, and won’t be coming back. Labour will be judged on what they have been saying and doing for two years, by all sides, not just on what is in their 2019 manifesto. We can still see off a Tory majority… but a Labour majority at this election is a pipedeam.
Will we have an event like that this time? Can Corbyn surprise people two years later? I think things will turn towards Labour later in the campaign, but not as much as in 2017…
And May was a terrible campaigner, and announced some unpalatable (to those whose votes she needed) manifesto items. Boris has many faults, but he is a capable campaigner
Boris has many faults, but he is a capable campaigner
He's shit at mopping.
Is someone going to have a word with grandad and remind him that expressing support for dodgy, corrupt South American narco-states is fine when you’re an anonymous backbencher, but when you’re in an election campaign where you want to be PM, all it does is write tomorrow’s Daily Mail headlines for them
You forgot to mention - another US backed coup with the intent of taking out the socialist leader - who after being democratically elected - it was claimed the vote was fraught with irregularities by the US Organizations of American States.
"Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), tweeted Sunday that OAS “never did find any evidence of fraud in the October 20th election, but the media repeated the allegation so many times that it became ‘true,’ in this post-truth world.”
https://www.thenation.com/article/bolivia-election-oas/
"On October 20, Bolivians went to the polls to choose their president and congress. Evo Morales, the country’s first indigenous president in a country with the largest proportion of indigenous people in Latin America, was on the ballot for reelection. His main opponent, former president Carlos Mesa, is vastly preferred by the Trump administration."
So yeah - wrong horse Binners. You're backing a Trumpian pony.
Well it all depends on your news sources.
The point is that someone sensible, who’s in the process of trying to get the top job, would just steer well clear of the subject.
It’s an election in the UK, so just stick to the rather more pressing issues closer to home that voters want to hear about. Theres no bloody shortage of them. But he just can’t help himself, can he? Ever the sixth former...
It just delivers yet another open goal to the Tories and their attack dogs in the right wing press to wade in with their Marxist nut-job/terrorist sympathiser narrative.
He needs some proper advisors to take him to one side and have a quiet word when he starts banging on about stuff like this
Well it all depends on your news sources.
Yup, and if we trust the Guardian form 2016 then the people voted against changing the rules to allow a fourth term and Morales stood anyway:
...and then the Independent has the most detailed comment I can find on today's events and points out, amongst other things, that Bolivia’s trade union federation union called for Morales to step down:
You’re backing a Trumpian pony.
I doubt Binners has a dog in this fight. [1] However, if we do want to play that game the Russian Foreign Ministry also called Morales’s exit part of an orchestrated coup d’etat today and Russia's been square behind Morales even after he lost the referendum. The Torys have got a suppressed report to explain away - they're going to love yet another example of Corbyn siding with Putin to add to the list.
...and one more thing if it's ok to ignore referendums held in 2016 why is Labour so respectful of our 2016 referendum. Don't tell me, I know.
[1] Nor should Corbyn/Momentum at a time when their focus really ought to be on winning the election they've been demanding for an eternity.
What a kerfuffle.
My prediction:
We'll have a hung parliament.
The next big kerfuffle will be that non of the factions can agree to anything to form a pseudo government.
What then?
Maybe the Queen will be forced to enforce a cross party emergency care taker interim government?
UK politics has descended into pathetic bickering and one-upmanship.
I'm going for Boris with +50.
Things will very rapidly fall apart, I predict another GE in 3 years amid recession and huge social problems. Then whatever centrist has replaced JC will walk home. Basically Blair all over again except without a war to **** things up hopefully.
Yup… Johnson majority… Hard Brexit… but the real hassle of that starts January 2021… so, yeah, he has a few years of looking good before it starts to fall down around his ears (but he’ll even benefit from that, his book deal and USA tour fees will be huge).
Alternatively…
https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1193971918128463873?s=21
Then whatever centrist has replaced JC
Never going to happen. Angela Rayner all the way. The most centrist you’ll get is Thornberry but she’s way too posh.
Tories will be between 10 to 20 seats short of a majority, that's my bet
Anyone want to steak a greggs pasty on it?
Tories short of a majority.
Boris negotiates with Scottish Government to repeal the Treaty of Union.
UK no longer exists so existing EU treaties are null and void.
Subsequent wirhdrawal of Scottish MPs leaves Tories with a majority.
rUK remains under Tory rule for the remainder of the century.
Anyone want to steak a greggs pasty on it?
Jesus, no. Nobody deserves that on top of BoJo as PM. That's insult on top of injury
Both the bookies and the currency markets are saying Con majority. So that's that.
The tories will have to be polling higher than they are to get a majority. Were are the 30 gains coming from?
Then whatever centrist has replaced JC
Centrism is disappearing. The divisions in society will not allow it to flourish any longer - certainly in any form currently.
Since Jonathan Freedland started attacking Corbyn over AS instead of his campaign - you know it's dead.
In other news it appears Farage standing down candidates confirms my second set of thoughts - it doesn't hugely hurt Labour. But if he does stand down candidates in Labour held Marginals that could be a problem.
This is born out by some Tories panicking this morning that Farage should not run candidates in certain areas.
Could be another interesting day.
I'm still trying to get my head round how Farage became to be so important without achieving anything other than seemingly being a rent-a-head for panel shows and radio phone-ins. He managed to sneak into being an MEP (which back then no-one really cared about) then spend his time being the naughty boy at the back always interrupting the teacher but that was just him showing himself to be a massive arse. How can one strange man be able to effectively dictate UK election plans for other parties by just saying a few words?
Sainsbury's on the Socialist Xmas campaign...
How can one strange man be able to effectively dictate UK election plans for other parties by just saying a few words?
Because, when viewed collectively, people are really, really stupid.
For every sharp political commentator out there there are tens of thousands of dumbasses who believe every single meme they read on Facebook.
They all get a vote just the same.
Universal suffrage innit.
How can one strange man be able to effectively dictate UK election plans for other parties by just saying a few words?
Because there is a rather large brexiteer elite, including the owners of several media stations, looking to make some profit and using him as a frontman.
That and Cameron was an idiot.
Sainsbury’s on the Socialist Xmas campaign…
I'm getting the deserving vs undeserving poor vibe, which seems more appropriate for your average Sainsbury's shopper. The Victorian attitude to welfare is probably the direction of travel for the next government. It doesn't feel very socialist, that's for sure!
For every sharp political commentator out there there are tens of thousands of dumbasses who believe every single meme they read on Facebook.
They all get a vote just the same.
There are dumbasses and intelligent people with no common sense whatsoever.(Liberals)
Fake News. Not even Bolivia. 🙂
Centrism is disappearing.
Centrist politicians might be. But then someone will move into the gap. It's how it goes.
Thatsthejoke.jpg
Wibble … centrists … wibble … liberals …
Johnson can rely on everyone else to ignore what needs doing, and attack everyone else instead of him and his policies. He has this in the bag.
We need the opposition parties and their voters to start working together towards the same aim… stopping a Conservative Brexit Party majority by any and all means… or we are in for a decade that’ll make us look back at this one with fondness.
Because, when viewed collectively, people are really, really stupid.
Plus a lot of people are racist to some degree. They may not openly admit it but when given some options that appeal to their inner racist they like them. The options are made up and not based on fact of course but that is where the stupidity comes in and they just believe it.
Better known as populism.
Plus a lot of people are racist to some degree.
It's a little bit more subtle. A lot of people feel a little germ of discomfort around things or people that are different. I think this is part of human nature, probably going back to before we were even human - I've certainly felt it. Often it grows into an -ism which could just as easily be racism, tribalism, xenophobia, homophobia or a wide variety of stuff. When we sit around on our own, or in echo chambers, there is nothing to challenge, because humans respond to what others are doing. 50 years ago people were flat out racist, simply because everyone else was and their little seeds grew into racism trees.
Some people however thought about their feelings, listened to those affected, and decided that it wasn't fair to condemn someone on these terms, so they campaigned and educated, and that kind of post-rationalised racism is much rarer than it was. Instead, we are post-rationalising xenophobia now against white foreigners - the terrible 'Eastern Europeans' who are "taking over everything".
I fully believe most people aren't bad, they just don't think very carefully about their own feelings. Populism flatters their base instinct, and populists use this to gain power. Labour's problem is that their campaign is too rational. Corbyn and McDonnell are presenting reasoned responses to try and solve the country's problems, unfortunately at a time of high emotion, populism and societal divisions this doesn't get many people inspired unless they're already invested in trying to solve social problems. Then their campaign looks 'ineffective' but only because we're used to being manipulated by spin and oratory.
People also aren't thinking very carefully about policies either. From BBC:
Billy [Bishop Auckland] thinks Brexit has left people feeling betrayed by all the parties.
"They thought 'give the monkeys a vote, they'll vote to stay in' and that's when the trouble started.
"They don't want to honour what the people said and keep the working classes down."
Labour policy is a second referendum, which is literally asking the people what they want. So how can that be not honouring the people's wishes?
Labour policy is a second referendum, which is literally asking the people what they want. So how can that be not honouring the people’s wishes?
I assume he means because we haven't left the EU yet.
On Farage
He is the frontman for a 20+ year campaign against the EU by a small number of press barons who want a extreme right wing neo liberal " singapore of the north" style UK because it suits their agenda.
Thats all it is
These people have been pushing forward their racist agenda for decades. Its the old " big lie" technique
Centrist politicians might be. But then someone will move into the gap. It’s how it goes.
Yeah to a point. But that gap will get smaller as the parties diverge, and inequality gets wider.
It doesn’t feel very socialist, that’s for sure!
That because the director can't very well come out full Ken Loach in the interests of his client. 🙂
What's all this Russian donor stuff?
Must be magic grandad's fault. Being a useless 6th-form gardening spy.
That because the director can’t very well come out full Ken Loach in the interests of his client.
I, Denial fake... 🙂
Boom boom.
Most of the UK political scene is centerist!
the only major party that is not is the tories. Eveyone else sits firmly in the european social democratic tradition which is centerist. Its just with the tories puling so far to the right ( alongside neo facists in europe) that it superficially appears that the rest have moved left
I have done this before and got no answer. What plicies from the mainstream parties (bar the tories) are not in the european social democratic centrist position? answer? None!
Here we go then:
Still not releasing the Russia Interference Report, Boris? Of course not...
Labour policy is a second referendum, which is literally asking the people what they want. So how can that be not honouring the people’s wishes?
seems to be a new tack from the Brexit party on avoiding a second referendum. There was a guy* on R4 last night as I drove home and it was all he kept returning too.
if they are so confident that brexit is what the population want, why are they so scared of asking them?
edit: Richard Tice.
Most of the UK political scene is centerist!
the only major party that is not is the tories. Eveyone else sits firmly in the european social democratic tradition which is centerist. Its just with the tories puling so far to the right ( alongside neo facists in europe) that it superficially appears that the rest have moved left
I have done this before and got no answer. What plicies from the mainstream parties (bar the tories) are not in the european social democratic centrist position? answer? None!
Ok I know I shouldn't but I'll bite. Perhaps you could point out where anyone is planning major re nationialisation of major industries, and where there is a proposal to confiscate 10% of mid to large companies shares?
Trouble with you TJ is you're so far to the left, from your position everything else looks central or right. It isn't.
Ok I know I shouldn’t but I’ll bite. Perhaps you could point out where anyone is planning major re nationialisation of major industries
By industries I assume you mean utilities?
Wrong question. The correct question is which other countries privatised the industries for a quick buck and to help their mates in the city out.
The nice thing about the UK is how many of our utilities (and other industries for that matter) are state owned. Just not by our state.
Tories will be between 10 to 20 seats short of a majority, that’s my bet
Anyone want to steak a greggs pasty on it?
Up until 2 days ago I'd have taken that and raised you a tub of pigs in blankets. I reckoned a hung parliament, with labour getting the most seats but nowhere near a majority.
But the man-frog just well and truly scuppered that. I hope he enjoys his 'Lord Farage' title.
So, at present, I think you're right. But....
I reckon Farage will also back down in a week or so and announce they will not field candidates in Tory/labour marginals, on condition that Boris goes full crash out/hard Brexit
And that's labour well and truly ****ed!
And I have a horrible feeling that that will deliver Johnson a tiny majority. Enough to crash us out as the labour party tears itself apart in the wake of yet another election defeat
Ok I know I shouldn’t but I’ll bite. Perhaps you could point out where anyone is planning major re nationialisation of major industries, and where there is a proposal to confiscate 10% of mid to large companies shares?
100pc agree. Including with the fact you shouldn't have bitten! 😀
The correct question is which other countries privatised the industries
A lot:
https://www.railjournal.com/opinion/the-tide-is-turning-for-private-operators
...and EU rules already make a state rail monopoly illegal and are going to make private involvement in railways compulsory with the Fourth Railway Package.
IMO, to counter faarange's cowardly refusal to stand candidates in tory strongholds, Labour need to join with the SNP/LibDem/PC/Green alliance. Labour stand little chance of beating Blohard without TBP splitting the tory vote. Jeremy needs to swallow his pride or else Blohard will return with a majority and force his style of Brexit on us all plus a tory government for the next decade or more. Time for a reality check for Labour and Jeremy.
A lot:
Thats a piece written in 2018 and, to put it mildly, comes across as propaganda central eg the hilarious claim it was successful in the UK. It does manage to acknowledge though this is extremely piecemeal but then fails to establish what is actually meant by successful? Lots of money for shareholders or improved services?
The correct question is which other countries privatised the industries for a quick buck
A lot:
Thats a piece written in 2018 and, to put it mildly, comes across as propaganda central eg the hilarious claim it was successful in the UK. It does manage to acknowledge though this is extremely piecemeal but then fails to establish what is actually meant by successful? Lots of money for shareholders or improved services?
I can't see the relevance of this to your question/my reply about which countries have privatized their trains?
where there is a proposal to confiscate 10% of mid to large companies shares?
Not in the UK, that's for sure.
Well it looks like the brexit party is falling apart at the seams, thier own candidates barred from standing citing boris's surrender deal is a betrayal as it's not a no deal brexit, and those that are standing are not expected to make much impact, it's the UKIP hype phantom all over again.
IMO, to counter faarange’s cowardly refusal to stand candidates in tory strongholds Labour need to join with the SNP/LibDem/PC/Green alliance.
Labour would lose votes because they'd be openly guilt of cowardly refusing to stand candidates in some opponents seats, as you would put it.
So your first sentence explains why the two big parties can't to do a deal like that and why Labour have a rule specifically forbidding them from doing so.