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Ian austin
Ian austin
Probably hoping for a Lordship on top of the job he got from the tories.
Todays game:
Guess which outbuilding Johnson will be hiding in when it comes to his Scotland visit and which candidate will get caught out. Morley seems to be an early candidate.
Or maybe how many times Johnson will lie today.
Ian Austin - yes one of the tories useful idiots.
Its something that really makes me despair how many complete idiots we have in parliament. Our whole democracy has been shown not fit for purpose - something many of us already knew but that is now blindingly obvious.
Its full of venal creatures that are only there for power and wealth. Very few are there for the right reasons - public service
A visit to Scotland today from Johnson
Gaffes will be coming for sure. Moray is an interesting litmus test for the tories as its probably the most eurosceptic part of Scotland and Davidson made a big play for it ( and was successful) with a position of Unionism and control of the fishing grounds.
its now obvious that whatever happens over brexit that the UK will not be able to exclude european fishing boats from UK waters unless we have no deal at all of any sort.
I think Johnson will be whisked in and out and no member of the public will be allowed anywhere near him but I bet he still says something very patronising that can be seized by the nationalists.
His problem in Scotland is he has no understanding of the difference in politics north of the border
Have we done this yet? Rayban has been on the telly 😀
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1192167939308478465?s=21
Zahawai was doing the full media tour yesterday - his main point seemed to boil down to “vote Conservative to start reversing Conservative cuts” - very much trying to be the “change” proposition, despite trying to hold on to power.
I rarely agree with TJ but his comment above is on the money.....
'Back to discussions of the election.
Can the Tories reset after a very poor couple of days full of gaffes?
Will Labours good couple of days be reflected in polls? Is rather suprising to see labour being slick and professional while the tories flounder about making gaffes and being called out for lies'.
Tories are in need of strong message management; Labour have this in place as they had last time.
Both parties will be subject to intensive fact checking with the results given increasing prominence.
Media are less deferential than ever to politicos - see Kay Burley empty chairing Cleverley (if ever someone's name was inappropriate); under-prepared, ill-informed/uninformed politicos being subjected to detailed questions and not realising when to stop digging.
Andrew Neil is sharpening his knife, I'm sure.
Stephen Nolan on 5live can be hard work but is good at skewering politicos.
Kay Burley is showing some teeth.
Farage is, I think, a busted flush - no manifesto and refusal to stand are indications of this. BP will not win enough votes to move the dial.
Tactical voting will be much talked about but will not happen in a big way and will have limited effect.
Rees-Mogg will either lose his seat or come very close to it; Labour's choice of candidate in Uxbridge will help secure Johnson's re-election.
SNP to clean-up in Scotland.
Lib Dems to do well - but nowhere near their aspiration/target.
Greens to win seats - not many but Caroline Lucas will have some friends to talk with at Westminster; 5 seats would be good result for them - 10 would be outstanding.
Overall prediction? No majority so minority parties will become major players. DUP will demand even bigger bung for their support. Corbyn and Johnson both stand down before end 2020.
I think the Conservative party are going to get all excited about grabbing a few “Northern” seats off of Labour, but then lose just as many “up here” to them, because I think tactical voting will make a big difference in a few areas. Really hope the Greens can take at least one more seat, and the LibDems some more as well, in Wales and the South West perhaps. PC & SNP should increase their seat share as well in their countries.
So… what happens in the rest of England… where most of the seats are, and most of the voters are? My fear is Conservatives will win even more rural(ish) seats by pushing on the Brexit button as hard as possible, and it’s down to the metro seats… which could go either way, but I suspect votes will split between Labour and the LibDems and result in Conservative wins.
No overall majority for anyone. Johnson will be gone next year, he was chosen as a “winner” and for no other reason, but his replacement will find some way of getting us out of the EU before June next year, with the support of Labour MPs, if not the “party”. Another election will follow, and that’ll be just as close. Corbyn will fight that one as well… why? Because his successor isn’t lined up yet… there are lots of good candidates to be Labour leader ready to go, but none will continue the project loyally enough. There is one candidate who fits the bill, but she’s so clearly not up to the job, that Corbyn will stay ‘till after the next election in 2020/21.
Corbyn and Johnson both stand down before end 2020.
The only result that leaves Johnson's position safe is an outright majority.
Corbyn's probably safe if he is biggest party or better and will go for sure if he's not, but he's behind in the polls.
So that's a very tempting prediction.
I think the Conservative party are going to get all excited about grabbing a few “Northern” seats off of Labour, but then lose just as many “up here” to them
Some pretty detailed analysis on the Guardian Podcast that reckons it will be very difficult for the Blue party to pick up 'Northern' seats, their correspondent reckoned the numbers just aren't there. Sounded plausible to me.
The tories will need at least 30 gains. Its very hard to see where they are coming from especially as the brexit party will take votes off them
10 to replace the DUP. ten to replace the seats they will lose in scotland. 10 to replace the seats they will lose to small parties
So no overall control, maybe the tories as largest party. SNP will still be the third largest. Lib dems will make very few gains and Swinson will lose her seat
SNP will still be the third largest. Lib dems will make very few gains
I agree with that TJ. The split in the anti-Tory vote will limit LibDem (and Labour gains) in seats in the cities where the Tory vote drops.
I wouldn't underestimate Tories , labour made big gains last to round but May was woeful at the kind of populism Johnson knows & much of the shine has come off Corbyn.
Ian Austin, labour MP telling people it would be better to vote for Johnson on R4 this morning was remarkable even coming from a well known corbynosceptic
Agree with above entirely. Wouldn't be surprised if Tories get a majority.
was remarkable
What was remarkable was that it was headline news. Lots of Tories and ex-Tory MPs who are actively fighting to stop Johnson, many new ones saying this week that they won’t be voting… yet they are barely a footnote in the media.
Swinson will lose her seat
In 73.13% remain constituency?
There's not much predictable in this election but if there was a safe prediction it would be that the sole revoke party will win a remain seat when the party machine will be chucking activists at it.
Corbyn’s probably safe if he is biggest party or better and will go for sure if he’s not,
I don't think Labour can be the biggest party, or at least, it would be a stunning reversal for the Tories if they were. However, Corbyn could still theoretically end up as PM with SNP/LibDem support, regardless of how much they are attacking each other right now. I don't see how the LibDems can go from a full revoke policy to supporting a Brexit at all costs PM in Johnson, even by their standards, that is pushing it.
So even if the Conservatives are the largest party in a hung Parliament, who will they turn to to 'Get Brexit Done'? It's outright majority for Boris, or bust.
if there was a safe prediction
SNP might sneak it.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Tories get a majority.
I’ll be surprised if they don’t. The best result I can realistically hope for this election is Conservatives being the largest party, but not being able to govern. A majority is still very likely at this stage. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. It’ll take a lot of tactical voting and nose holding to get stop Johnson now though.
It’s outright majority for Boris, or bust.
Yes, of course he might be desperate to grasp any excuse to not get Brexit done (for 5 years at least) and a deal with a smaller party would be that excuse but that won't help him remain PM because SNP/Libdems wouldn't do any deal without him going.
So yeah, most likely you're right IMHO.
The tories trouble is they have lost all the brains and sensible people! That and the fact checking is going to cost them dear along with the new media. For example I never watch sky news - but got that clip of Cleverly being empty chaired from facebook. ( I know - echo chamber!)
Seeing the BBC fact checking every tory statement is great and will cost them a lot. Yes their lies will resonate with their base but no longer will they be able to put their lies out unchallenged as happened in the past. Its no longer he said / she said Added to this is "and the truth is"
JOhnson being a proven liar plays very badly with the electorate at large. Corbyn has a significant advantage here
OOB - the SNP will NEVER do a deal with the tories.
In 73.13% remain constituency?
In Scotland.
Yes, of course he might be desperate to grasp any excuse to not get Brexit done
Imagine it now, PM Johnson announcing revocation on the steps of number ten....there wouldn't be a ditch deep enough for him to die in.
Most people don't bother viewing fact check articles
A quick scan of the front pages at the supermarket or a scroll through what their social media feed tells them to be angry about
The fact checking will get much “softer” now we are into the election period proper… it’ll all be about “balance” from here on in… just as much weighting will be given to people prepared to lie to support the lies Johnson will be relying on in the weeks ahead.
remember the SNP won it time before last. Its a very volatile seat and the SNP will chuck the kitchen sink at it. I know lib dem activists in her seat who previously have been committed campaigners who are no longer going to campaign for her they are so annoyed by her tactics.
One of the things that characterise the scottish political scene ( as a huge generality) is that bullshitters are less tolerated and Swinson has been bullshitting hugely. this gives the SNP easy attack lines.
The SNP stand to make gains in Scotland and Swinson is going to be doing a national campaign not concentrating on her seat. Swinson won last time because of the rise in the Tory vote. That tory vote will collapse this time around
She also ran a very committed local campaign with a huge amount of input from the party. thats going to be much harder this time for her due to being the leader and having to be in london for media appearances
If Ian Austin is Corbyn's major problem then he has nothing to worry about. For as long as Corbyn has been leader Austin has been bleating about how terrible it is. No one listened to him last time, no one will this time.
Now, remember what I was saying about this being a rerun of 2017? Seems like the tories are doing their best to make it happen.
I wouldn’t underestimate Tories , labour made big gains last to round but May was woeful at the kind of populism Johnson knows & much of the shine has come off Corbyn.
Ian Austin, labour MP telling people it would be better to vote for Johnson on R4 this morning was remarkable even coming from a well known corbynosceptic
Agreed - if Mansfield went last time - the benchmark will be whether it goes back to Labour or BXP.
Ian Austin is a desperate fruit-loop. There are no grounds or logic for his comment. He's another anti-Corbyn mouth piece that mainly resorts to AS for all his arguments.
After a speech in Telford Mr Corbyn was asked whether the new deal would continue free movement on the same terms as currently. He replied: "I want our young people to be brought up in a world where they can travel, they can experience other societies, they can make their contribution there. And do you know what? That enriches their lives, and enriches the lives of all of us."
If Labour can drop their red line on FoM, their whole proposed Brexit policy makes far more sense… a much closer arrangement with the EU/EEA can then be sorted, and put to the public… they could well vote to accept it over remaining a full EU member as well… it starts to look like genuinely seeking a compromise for the UK, rather then just trying to delay harder decisions for after this election.
Hard Brexiteer at all costs.
Of course the other thing with Swinson is that she cannot play the " only remain party" line because the SNP are remain at all costs as well. so that is her main attack line gone.
Brexit not happening and Davidson going will cost the tories dear and it really looks like many of those tory votes will go to the SNP ( thats where they came from in 2017) Maybe Swinsons Unionism might save her and maybe positioning the party close to the tories might mean she hoovers up tory votes but I doubt it.
I think Scotland will end up with 50+ SNP. the lib dems will hold their island seats. Tories and Labour will lose a lot
I hope Murray loses his seat this time. He was one of the main players in the tory / labour non aggression pact but I hope the electorate see thru that this time and he is a vile man and a liar.
Looks like Greens are making way for LibDem candidates in London, and Labour candidates up here. We need more of this. LibDem reciprocating in a number of seats. If Labour prioritised the removal of Tory MPs and did the same, we might replace a few Tory MPs with Green ones… wouldn’t that be welcome…?
I heard Heidi Allen on day R4 Today say that lib Dems will stand down on Isle of Wight for greens, but given that it's a Tory safe seat they're probably just chucking them a bone for all the concessions the greens will make for the lib dems
The greens are by their very nature too nice for grubby politics, hence the co leader position (IE we can't decide who's the best candidate let's just offer them both the role, we don't want to upset anyone)
Most people don’t bother viewing fact check articles
A quick scan of the front pages at the supermarket or a scroll through what their social media feed tells them to be angry about
It goes way beyond that, so many people don't even care when it's an OBVIOUS lie they know isn't true. It's not like most people need fullfact.org to check if the IOM is in the EU is it?
The Brexit/Boris/Farge style is like a pulpit telling parables... stories that might be sort of true or might partly be true if you change the places and names etc.
the SNP are remain at all costs
Linky?
so many people don’t even care when it’s an OBVIOUS lie they know isn’t true.
Lies are often overselling. eg: Labour are saying they're going borrow and spend 150bn. Leaving aside if that wise it's not possible because you simply couldn't commission the projects fast enough. But the message that cuts through is "Labour are going to borrow and spend overwhelmingly more than all the other parties.".
It's widely used Trump (build a wall), Boris (die in a ditch), Leave campaign (350m).
The promise is a lie, the message cuts though and is distributed far more widely if your opponents pick you up on the lie.
YOu really need one OOB? Considering their entire constitutional position is based on Independence in Europe and they have been campaigning for remain
"Scotland’s place in Europe matters to us as a nation and being part of a wider European family of nations has brought us benefits. We continue to believe that EU membership is the best option for Scotland. If the UK is to leave the EU, we want the least-worst deal possible for jobs and living standards – that must mean staying in the Single Market and Customs Union."
https://www.snp.org/our-vision/international-affairs/
https://www.snp.org/policy-area/europe-international-affairs/
the position is that scotland needs another independence referendum to ensure scotland remains in the EU
lib Dems will stand down on Isle of Wight for greens
That one was already worked out, it’s the other seats that are being announced today. And, yes, this is mostly Tory seats where there is no way of defeating the Conservative Party without some form of electoral alliance… that is sort of the point… to try and remove Tory MPs who will otherwise be walking it. If Labour got involved, Johnson’s majority would be looking much harder for him to get.
just chucking them a bone
Maybe so. But as I said a few pages ago, Labour would only need to throw the other opposition parties a bone or two and they’d do very well from them standing aside in some key seats in return.
If Labour got involved, Johnson’s majority would be looking much harder for him to get.
Yes, but that's a bad look for a big party. I don't blame Labour for feeling unable to do it. (I bet they'd love to.)
“Scotland’s place in Europe matters to us as a nation and being part of a wider European family of nations has brought us benefits. We continue to believe that EU membership is the best option for Scotland. If the UK is to leave the EU, we want the least-worst deal possible for jobs and living standards – that must mean staying in the Single Market and Customs Union.”
That's not remotely remain at all costs.
It is, considering that they will never have a majority in the UK due to only fielding candidates in 59 seats.
OOB. Just have a read of the links - its makes it perfectly clear that the SNP are a remain party and that remaining in the EU is a central policy
Back to fact checking.
It's generally accepted that politicos have only a passing acquaintance with the truth; referendum campaign and last election were characterised by outrageous lies and spurious claims which the media did little to properly challenge.
This is one of the drivers behind the increased focus on fact checking
which, I believe, will be much more rigorous this time; balance will be achieved by being equally rigorous with all parties.
There is more interest in politics now than ever before in my voting life and, with it, an increased interest in facts and truth.
Some voters have little or no interest in facts and truth - ah, BP supporters and other rabid brexiteers; probably some remainers also.
Lies are often overselling. eg: Labour are saying they’re going borrow and spend 150bn. Leaving aside if that wise it’s not possible because you simply couldn’t commission the projects fast enough. But the message that cuts through is “Labour are going to borrow and spend overwhelmingly more than all the other parties.”.
It’s widely used Trump (build a wall), Boris (die in a ditch), Leave campaign (350m).
The promise is a lie, the message cuts though and is distributed far more widely if your opponents pick you up on the lie.
I see what you're saying but to me it seems layers below that.
Take the £350M .... yep they can argue over the amount but what Boris wasn't saying is MUCH bigger... whilst the amount is argued the "sell it to US companies" isn't even on the table.
I've got my own guess at the "dead in a ditch" ... I think that was in response to one of Boris's financial backers telling him .... and he was being a smart arse mentioning it in a thinly disguised way.
Back to fact checking.
It’s generally accepted that politicos have only a passing acquaintance with the truth; referendum campaign and last election were characterised by outrageous lies and spurious claims which the media did little to properly challenge.
This is one of the drivers behind the increased focus on fact checking
which, I believe, will be much more rigorous this time; balance will be achieved by being equally rigorous with all parties.
There is more interest in politics now than ever before in my voting life and, with it, an increased interest in facts and truth.
Some voters have little or no interest in facts and truth – ah, BP supporters and other rabid brexiteers; probably some remainers also.
The real fact checking is really who is paying for FB ads....
Time and time again I hear lies repeated but they can't be attributed to a politician/party ... even though they are clearly supporting one.
It's like the whole Independence Day "plausible deniability"
These are not one off lies.... but a series of lies building on earlier lies or half truths...
My educated mate was telling me how he's voting for the BP to stop his son being conscripted into the EU army... so I asked wasn't he worried about him being conscripted into a UK army...
No because parliament would have to pass legislation ....
But we could simply veto any vote on a EU army ....
"No we had our veto stolen"
... and so it goes on.
The real fact checking is really who is paying for FB ads….
Isn't there now a portal where you can see what FB ads have been paid for and who's seeing them?
Can the Tories reset after a very poor couple of days full of gaffes?
Will Labours good couple of days be reflected in polls?
All this and more in next week's episode of...
About that Remain pact. I'm struggling to see who is stepping aside for the LibDems in my constituency, Cheadle.
molgrips - I believe there is.
Just posted on the Hebden Bridge facebook group by the lib dems. 2017 result was:
Craig Whittaker (Cons) - 26790
Joshua Fenton Glyn (Labour) - 26181
Janet Battye (LD) - 1952
Labour didn’t win that council by election though, did they?
I expect the LibDems to be emphasising any result that went their way since 2017, and Labour to focus heavily on that 2017 result. What do you expect? I think the result in the last General Election is far more pertinent than anything that’s happened since, but that’s just my reading of it all.
dazh
Subscriber
Just posted on the Hebden Bridge facebook group by the lib dems. 2017 result was..
As nice as that looks on the surface, were only 2 candidates, 1 Lab, 1 Lib, and there were only about 500 votes cast - it must be a very small ward.
https://www.calderdale.gov.uk/council/democracy/electionresults/results.jsp?election=497
Edit: Total number of eligible voters 2000
But probably more important is how hard the Brexit Party push in Calderdale…
Whittaker could lose his seat (yes, I think to Labour) if the Brexit Party can hold onto any of this vote:
http://www.calderdale.gov.uk/council/democracy/electionresults/results.jsp?election=477
Got the same from my constituency from the lib dems
Only we can beat the snp.
Trouble is 2017 they came a poor 4th and lost their deposit
I did have a bit of a debate with them over it. What they have done is taken the voting figures from the euroelections then added to that the % swing in overall polls for the GE UK wide and added that to the euro figures then claiming they are in a close second place
Its another step away from their USP
When I used to vote lib dem they were know for honesty and truthfulness and principles. Now they have lost that
The LibDem vote has surged in 2019… of course they will use that to try and persuade people to (keep) voting for them, and try and resist everyone going back to their 2017 voting positions. And I don’t think they’ll be very successful with that, but you can argue that it’s an entirely “honest” thing to do… 2017 (and 2015 before it) were a disaster for them, they are going to emphasise the votes of 2019 and try and apply it to general election voting, not hark back to when their vote share was much lower, obviously.
FB Ad reports, prepare to be shocked by the amounts:
yes but its totally disingenuous to claim they are the only people able to beat the snp based on inapplicable information. Its obvious voting patterns in different elections produce different results and they have no chance at all of doing anything in my seat. Its a labour / snp marginal with the tories in a strong third place. Lib dems are 4th and have no history or traction in this seat. 4.7% of the vote last GE
inapplicable information
Some would argue that 2015&2017 GE results are “inapplicable information” as so much has changed in terms of votes and voting intention since 2017, and that extrapolating 2019 results is more uptodate. I’m with you though, I don’t think the local and euro results are very pertinent to FPTP voting for an MP in most seats, so am using 2015/2017 to inform how I will vote.
It is pretty clear that the LibDems are at best massaging the numbers which doesn't really fit with how Swanson would want the party to be seen. I have little trust in them and would not be surprised at all if they formed a coalition with the Tories given the chance.
Molgrips
Isn’t there now a portal where you can see what FB ads have been paid for and who’s seeing them?
Not really no.... unless they are official and declared as political and that say's nothing about WHERE the funding came from either.
I've seen people posting pictures in the last week but can't find them in the FB portal.
And in any case the ads themselves are just the clickbait... to get people to groups where they can be exposed to unpaid for propaganda.
would not be surprised at all if they formed a coalition with the Tories given the chance.
Because a coalition was a great electoral success last time. 🙂
I can see how one of the parties would be forced by circumstance to prop up one of the two big parties[1] but there is no way the LibDems or SNP would do any kind of deal to help one of the main parties get in power without a 2nd Ref and a different leader. Anything else would be political suicide. Even that would probably be political suicide.
[1] If you have the balance of power your inaction is as decisive as your action.
Isn’t there now a portal where you can see what FB ads have been paid for and who’s seeing them?
Would it really help? 99.99pc of political propaganda on FB comes from private individuals and unpaid activists. My cousin is a councillor and activist of a political party, she shares/posts something political and untrue about 3 times a day nobody could or should regulate that. (Although I dearly wish someone would. I block the source of literally everything political she shares and still a few times a day there's bollocks from another source. I'd just block her but... well... family.)
Actually the SNP have NOT said they will only do a deal if Corbyn goes - they are not that interested in english politics. their price for S&C is a second scots referendum and they will only work with labour not the tories
~I bet you this ( you can think up a nice comic forfeit for me if you want) that if the numbers stack up that tory plus lib dems are a majority the lib dems go for it and we get a tory government. Remember Swinson is proud of the coalition and is far closer to the tories politically that past lib dems leaders bar Clegg.
She is far closer to the Tories than previous LibDem leaders, for sure… well… what the Tories were anyway… the new Conservative Brexit Party are basically the Vote Leave team plus some poor sods hanging on to their coat tails to try and stay in politics. LibDems should be able to mop up a lot of votes from people who voted Tory in the past, but who understand that shift for what it is. Our only way out of our current hole is for the LibDems (and other opposition parties) to unseat enough Tory MPs where the Labour Party can not.
Christ this is hilarious. It's like a travelling circus. And people go on about labour having a personality cult.
STOP BREXIT.
BUILD A BRIGHTER FUTURE.
I presume that is the electric bus Swinson is campaigning from? Probably wise to feature her on it. Now imagine if Corbyn’s bus had that tagline…
Would it really help? 99.99pc of political propaganda on FB comes from private individuals and unpaid activists. My cousin is a councillor and activist of a political party, she shares/posts something political and untrue about 3 times a day nobody could or should regulate that. (Although I dearly wish someone would. I block the source of literally everything political she shares and still a few times a day there’s bollocks from another source. I’d just block her but… well… family.)
Fine line ... I'd say it depends on her source of material and where/how.
I can't answer this definitely by any means but for example if she is being fed stuff to post to link to political FB groups then I'd say yes it should be regulated, if she is being paid then even more. (How Dunno???)
There is something insidious about having content prepared and provided by for example a foreign power to be shared ... it's not free speech (in a narrower sense) if someone is paid or otherwise encouraged to share carefully crafted lies that are all part of a stage managed campaign of lies.
if the numbers stack up that tory plus lib dems are a majority the lib dems go for it and we get a tory government.
Ok, let's imagine the election is over and that is a numeric possibility.
If that is the case and *if* the only way to stop a Tory government is a Labour/SNP alliance and Labour will not agree to a second referendum then the SNP will say no and we will get a Tory government because of the SNP. If you have the balance of power your inaction is as decisive as your action.
You can always argue that voting for a small party lets in a big party
but what we do know after 2015 is that no small party will ever willingly take responsibility for government, circumstances will have to force them.
...and isn't it mental that a significant minority of voters will only vote for a party if they can be as sure as they possibly can their party won't ever have power even a small share of it.
[quote="tjagain"]A visit to Scotland today from Johnson
.................
I think Johnson will be whisked in and out and no member of the public will be allowed anywhere near him but I bet he still says something very patronising that can be seized by the nationalists.
[quote-"thegrauniad"]Johnson spent little over an hour touring the rural distillery in a strictly managed visit during which he had no contact with the public.
[quote="blondmuppet"]Absolutely, there is no case whatsoever [for a second referendum] because people were promised in 2014 that it would be a once in a generation event and I see no reason why we should go back on that pledge.
"Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats" ... FFS
Jo Swinson's Ego doesn't fit on the bus.
Probably wise to feature her on it.
They have another bus... 🙂
Jo Swinson’s Ego doesn’t fit on the bus.
Perhaps they’ve done their homework… and both Johnson and Corbyn are personally a turn off for many people who have voted for their parties in the past… so a focus on the leader (on the bus she will be campaigning from) might suit an electoral purpose beyond “ego”…
They have another bus…
Oh, nice work Daz, that’s pretty funny.
tjagain Member
yes but its totally disingenuous to claim they are the only people able to beat the snp based on inapplicable information. Its obvious voting patterns in different elections produce different results and they have no chance at all of doing anything in my seat. Its a labour / snp marginal with the tories in a strong third place. Lib dems are 4th and have no history or traction in this seat. 4.7% of the vote last GE
If we're talking about history then be fair, the LibDems came second to Labour in the 2001, 2005 and 2010 elections in what I assume to be your constituency (Edinburgh North and Leith). For some reason that wasn't the case in 2015, can't think why! Though if we're talking about historical trends then 2017 was a bit of an outlier for the Tories in that constituency, they did a lot better than they did in any other election that the Wikipedia page for it shows (back to '97). Is it still a viable Tory target now, given Brexit hostility and the lack of Ruth Davidson?
In most recent elections I've received information from most major parties who aren't defending my seat that tell me they're the only party who can topple the incumbent. There's always some numbers they can use to back up these claims. The difference between recent LibDem results in general elections and European elections muddy the water even more than normal.
A note to politicians - Approach Emma Barnett with caution. She'll skewer you.
https://twitter.com/laurencesleator/status/1192467215716638726?s=19
CrisL - I don't think there is much chance of the tories doing anything in leith. 3000 ish (IIRC) votes to gain against a background of falling polls.
If that is the case and *if* the only way to stop a Tory government is a Labour/SNP alliance and Labour will not agree to a second referendum then the SNP will say no and we will get a Tory government because of the SNP.
The numbers do not work like that because of sinn fein, dup etc. If labour and snp together can give a majority then lib dems / tory cannot
Labour will give them the seond ref anyway no prblem if thats the price for power
She’ll skewer you.
Who was being interviewed?
Straight from Tony Blair to Hitler there… time for her to step away from social media and internet forums perhaps.
The numbers do not work like
While crunching those numbers, please remember that you are the one who keeps talking about how minority governments can work… in which case it’s the largest party/group that gets to form the government, rather than a majority being required.
"one of the most extraordinary few minutes of radio I've ever heard" LOLZ this person clearly doesn't listen to the radio much.
Fair enough Kelvin. Even so given that the SNP and labour will always vote down a tory government the tories could not run a minority government if between snp and labour they have a majority. they would not be able to get a queens speech thru