[Closed] 2019 General Election

Hopefully we’ll see the Labour Party decimated and not a threat for a generation.

SNP +10 seats or so at the expense of Torys
LD + a few at expense of Torys depending on the state of Brexit at time of GE
Lab depends on how solid their message is. Needs to be clear.
Torys depends on state of Brexit

Hopefully we’ll see the Labour Party decimated and not a threat for a generation.

I laugh every time I hear the words 'for a generation' used in relation to politics. You know as well as I do that voters are far more fickle than that. They will vote on the usual stuff, as they always do, and it'll come down to a tiny few waverers in marginal seats. The wild card in this one will be the brexit party.

The wild card in this one will be the brexit party.

They are wild, I’ll agree.

Will the grim weather keep northern voters at home?

Only those originally from the south but I’ve not seen the forecast.

He’ll find an excuse not to run one he hasn’t held a single promise yet.

The wild card in this one will be the brexit party.

Yes. Depending on the state of Brexit, Farage could end up stoking the fires against Labour if it's not done, or against everyone if it's done but in a way that doesn't please him. I think the only way it would please him is no deal.

I think the only way it would please him is no deal.

Or No Brexit, he gets to keep his EU MP salary for a little while longer... 🤦‍♂️

Labour have consistently been polling around 20% and they have a historically unpopular leader (amongst the population). They stand a fair chanced of being slaughtered. If you are a labour voter but want brexit what are you going to do?

I laugh every time I hear the words ‘for a generation’ used in relation to politics. You know as well as I do that voters are far more fickle than that.

The Tories are polling quite well aren't they? They've lurched further to the right to soak up the Brexit party voter base.

The Tories are polling quite well aren’t they?

Depends which polls you look at.

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1187399919604289538?s=20

5thElefant

Member

Hopefully we’ll see the Labour Party decimated and not a threat for a generation.

Do you really believe that or are you just trolling?

I'll assume the former and question why you think it's a good idea for any party (Conservative or otherwise) to be able to enact all of its policies unopposed by any serious checks and balances. Or are you dim enough to be wishing for a dictatorship?

JP

#greenlandslider

Do you really believe that or are you just trolling?

I’ll assume the former and question why you think it’s a good idea for any party (Conservative or otherwise) to be able to enact all of its policies unopposed by any serious checks and balances. Or are you dim enough to be wishing for a dictatorship?

Fingers crossed.

Didn’t go well last time that happened.

Are you seriously comparing the UK labour party to the nazis? Really?

Are you seriously comparing the UK labour party to the nazis? Really?

Confiscation of private property and imprisonment of political opponents don’t sound reassuring.

Of course. Who wants an antisemitc socialist party in power? Didn’t go well last time that happened.

🤦🏻‍♂️

Who wants an antisemitc socialist party in power? Didn’t go well last time that happened.

When was that? and are you therefore fine with a right wing antisemitic party?

I’d be happy with either the liberals or the conservatives in power or as the opposition. Or even a return of new labour.

So centre right and hard right and maybe allowing another centre tending towards right person.
Good choices there.

More Oswald Mosley. Glad we didn’t find out how that would have worked out.

Quick back-pedal.

Probably wise to rename this thread, “2019/2020 General Election” now, rather than later.

Anyway, TV voxpops predictably full of people saying, “We don’t trust these politicians, yet don’t want the bother of getting the chance to do anything about them in the voting booth”. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Two elections?

Not what I meant, but very likely.

Glad we didn’t find out how that would have worked out.

But you said 'the last time it happened' so you weren't talking about Moseley were you because you know he was never in power? Perhaps it would just be best to admit that comparing labour to the nazis is a ridiculously stupid thing to say?

Probably wise to rename this thread

Indeed, a couple of hours ago it looked a dead cert. Looking unlikely now isn't it, and I was quite looking forward to a distraction from the xmas party season.

Depends which polls you look at.

There's not many that show the Tories with a substantial lead

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49798197

ridiculously stupid thing to say?

It used to be ninfan’s go-to-let’s-wind-up-the-lefties shtick. It is ridiculously stupid so it’s no great surprise that 5th Elefant is now trotting it out.

There’s not many that show the Tories with a substantial lead

Realistically, have the Brexit Party any chance of winning Westminster seats? I just assumed some sort of voting pact with the Tories, suggesting that they'd end up with 45-50% of the popular vote in total, though not sure how that would break down into seats.

It is ridiculously stupid so it’s no great surprise that 5th Elefant is now trotting it out.

it's not really, look at The Third Wave experiment :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Third_Wave_(experiment)

and compare to how certain sections of both the labour party and society in general are behaving, it is not inconcievable that a skilled operator could head the party off down that road.

We are just lucky that Corbyn is not that skilled operator, although McDonnell might be - see his youtube videos celebrating direct action and spitting in your managers tea being a victory for the people.

Realistically, have the Brexit Party any chance of winning Westminster seats

Difficult to tell how things are going to turn out. Depends on if they manage to get the "tories failed to deliver its only us you can trust" line working.
A voting pact seems unlikely. For all of Farages many flaws being a complete idiot isnt one of them so he wont trust Johnson as far as he can throw him.

@ Scotroutes - I fear the BP will do rather well, on the back of a single issue No Deal Brexit Campaign. This will embolden or force de Pfeffel to push his own No Deal or the hardest of Brexits possible.

5thElefant

Confiscation of private property

I'm actually with you on that one - Labour appear to have lost their minds on that issue.

JP

 fear the BP will do rather well, on the back of a single issue No Deal Brexit Campaign. This will embolden or force de Pfeffel to push his own No Deal or the hardest of Brexits possible.

But if splitting the pro-(hard)Brexit vote lets Labour in then it'll be even worse.

At the risk of stating the obvious. This election campaign will be focused on brexit with no mention of what else the successful party will do. It might be the big issue of the day but it could be a 5 year term which is a long time if their other plans are crazy (selling the NHS, screwing the most vulnerable, islamaphobic etc).

I suspect we'll just end up with another hung parliament / minority leadership / coalition which will resolve nothing....

And to be fair, I'd be quite happy with that as it will keep Brexit stalled...

We are just lucky that Corbyn is not that skilled operator, although McDonnell might be – see his youtube videos celebrating direct action and spitting in your managers tea being a victory for the people.

Neither of them are skilled. Sadly.

Ah well.
Anyone who stands up against entitled right whngers who whine about living in one of the most privileged parts of the western world is worth listening to.
Shame they've been unable to leave the sixth form common room, but at least they're socialists.

Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer......
we've never needed a decent democratic socialist government as much as we do now.

The last Labour manifesto, you know, the only one that was independantly costed was just fine in my eyes.
The addition of scrapping private education is just the icing on the cake.

And what's wrong with direct action?

Who wants an antisemitc socialist party in power?

Labour aren't antisemitic in any real sense - totally inflated story based on insinuation and smear tactics. I do however very much want a socialist party in power.

Greed is bad.

Oh and conflating Nazis who called themselves socialist to make it look like they were on the people's side with Labour who actually are is very poorly informed.

It'll be a totally hung parliament across three or four parties.. and we'll still be in the same mess.
Bxp making noises that they'll get into bed with the tories but the tories aren't interested.

We need a second referendum before a general election.

I think Johnson will win

But not by a massive margin (he's actually worse at this than May, just better at spin, well Cummings is)

Populism works, even if the result will be a disaster for the country.

Nazi policy killed disabled people

Tory policy killed disabled people

Labour aren’t antisemitic in any real sense – totally inflated story based on insinuation and smear tactics. I do however very much want a socialist party in power.

Absolutely. There is no way out of the despicable concentration of wealth in this country than a huge redistribution.

Neolibralism has ran out of steam for the most; markets have failed us in lots of ways. Unless we want more of the same we must have some form of socialism to sort this out.

Anyone who calls Corbyn and Labour Communists or Marxists with any sort of intended slur - needs to be asked well would your rather not have the NHS? That usually sorts the wheat from the chaff.

It's such frustration that people have used Brexit has Corbyn's yardstick and decided that doesn't make a successful leader - and yet no leader has navigated this unscathed. Do you think there is a point there?

If we could get beyond Brexit just for a moment I think Corbyn is very much the person we need in charge. Free from ego, decent and caring - and he's a fighter too - quietly dispatching many strong critics and Tory leaders.

He's got something that appeals but it's a battle for the electorate to see that because ultimately we've made a drama out of Brexit and he's not the best actor in the cast.

I would argue that someone with the same (or similar) message, but with more charisma and without the taint that Corbyn has would be a better choice. I know too many people that dislike Johnson, but cannot bring themselves to vote for Corbyn (terrorist sympathies, old-skool marxism, etc). You need someone that can pull in those voters, then they would walk it.

You need someone that can pull in those voters, then they would walk it.

Yep. They also need a very good strategist to combat the populism than Tories/Cummings will put out.

Labour policies should be easy to sell to most people if you could get their attention for 2 minutes as they are for the good of most people.

but with more charisma

What does that actually mean? Seems to me that when it comes to politics charisma means narcissism, and that’s the last thing we need right now. Even then it’s weird that this criticism is aimed at Corbyn when he’s the only politician I can remember who can attract thousands to a public campaign event. (And no, they’re not all party stooges however much the haters pretend they are)

What does that actually mean?

It means that when people see you on Television they are drawn to you, think you are a great person etc,. even before they have said much. Corbyn is the opposite of that unfortunately.
I support Labour policies but he should have gone a long time ago.

Politics has changed a lot and the person and the catch phrases are more important than the policies. You need the right leader to have a chance of getting into power to implement the policies.

For a 2019 general election Johnson would actually have to win a Parliamentary vote, so...

What does that actually mean?

No beard.

There hasn't been a Prime Minister with a beard since 1902.

It would be stupid to have a GE before a 2nd referendum but then stupidity is the new norm for UK politics it seems.

I can't see any party getting a majority in a GE and unfortunately the Tories probably have the best chance - if the BP does a deal with them. So chances are we'll go into 2020 in much the same way as we are now, with parliament still not ratifying a crappy deal. At that point though I can't see the EU has much choice but to refuse a further extension as the government still wouldn't support a 2nd referendum so extending would be pointless.

Oh and conflating Nazis who called themselves socialist to make it look like they were on the people’s side with Labour who actually are is very poorly informed.

But they were socialist in many ways if you view ideology in 2D left to right.... it's a specific brand of national socialism but it's an ever present danger that any ideological belief can slip in unexpected directions... (or are we going to argue Stalin wasn't a socialist?)

However ... as I've tried to point out elsewhere... PC stop phrases are based on bollox
It's faintly ludicrous to suggest Corbyn is racist so we adopt/invent a "anti-semetic" label.
Anyone who thinks the situatiuon in Palestine/Israel (or RoI/NI) is all one sided in either direction is looking through rose tinted glasses...

Politics has changed a lot and the person and the catch phrases are more important than the policies.

i couldn’t disagree more. The reason we’re in this mess is because of ‘charismatic’ politicians who talk a good game but fail to do anything of substance. The trouble is that the charisma/narcissism you seek is inversely proportional to any intention to do anything once in power.

It means that when people see you on Television they are drawn to you, think you are a great person etc,. even before they have said much.

Like Tony Blair, That turned out well didn't it?

It would be stupid to have a GE before a 2nd referendum but then stupidity is the new norm for UK politics it seems.

It is just as stupid to have a referendum before the lies and facts are determined and the reasons people voted the way they did are understood and the facts made available and the lies ruled upon in some way.... regardless of the result we will still be in a very broken nation (or nations)

I can’t see any party getting a majority in a GE

Perhaps the solution is for Labour to refuse a GE via the 2/3 vote, refuse it via a VONC and leave the only option open to achieving an election being via an amendable bill.

Amend the bill such that , in the event of no party gaining an overall majority in the GE, a 2nd brexit, legally binding, referendum is immediately called to settle the Brexit issue once and for all.

Let's actually find out what the will of the people is.

There hasn’t been a Prime Minister with a beard since 1902.

(cough) Gordon Brown (cough)

(cough) Gordon Brown (cough)

Remind me, which year was it he won the election?:-)

i couldn’t disagree more. The reason we’re in this mess is because of ‘charismatic’ politicians who talk a good game but fail to do anything of substance. The trouble is that the charisma/narcissism you seek is inversely proportional to any intention to do anything once in power.

I don't seek it, but the general public do and the charismatic person is the person who wins. If Corbyn was charismatic and had the same polices he does now he would be winning in the polls. And once in power he would implement those policies - what is wrong with that?

I think Corbyn is very much the person we need in charge

But he isn't really in charge; he's a puppet for Momentum.

Labour need a leader who can lead, then they could walk it. Corbyn is unelectable to the uncertain centre.

with a decent leader they would already be in number 10

Like Tony Blair, That turned out well didn’t it?

Yes like Tony Blair. How it turned out is irrelevant as that is down to what he implemented, the wars he fought etc,. but the point is he got Labour into power which is more than Corbyn will ever do.

Hopefully we’ll see the Labour Party decimated and not a threat for a generation.

Well there's the thread set on fire with stupidity in the second post.

(cough) Gordon Brown (cough)

Did he have a beard? I don't remember that

We live in interesting times. Polls can mislead eg May last time. Bad weather coming and a week is a long time in politics etc. It only takes an avoidable death in an A and E queue to refocus attentions, in the 70s it was some poor soul who choked whilst trying to eat cardboard. These things can and do happen.
I've had graduate bar tenders tell me how they couldn't vote for Corbyn, I've had to resist the temptation to ask if they feel neoliberal capitalism has worked out well for them. It's an amazing trick how the establishment has convinced the victims to vote for more punishment. There's a lot of unfocused anger out there ready to be exploited. I just wish these people who argue against Corbyn would just throw up their hands and be honest about being Tories. And on AS and terrorism and all those tropes, just give us some 'who, when and where' or shut up and go away.

I just wish these people who argue against Corbyn would just throw up their hands and be honest about being Tories.

😂

If Corbyn was charismatic

Again, which other politician can you remember who could pull in thousands to public campaign events? Now I'm not saying he's charismatic, but he must have something about him...

I just wish these people who argue against Corbyn would just throw up their hands and be honest about being Tories.

There is a difference between not thinking Corbyn is the best leader and not liking current Labour policies. Current Labour policies are okay although ideally they would be a bit further left but Corbyn is useless. See the difference?

but Corbyn is useless

Well I hate to sound like a middle manager, but all this whining does is guarantee failure. For better or worse, Corbyn is leader and will fight the next election. Labour MPs, activists, supporters and voters can get behind him and try to win, or stand around moaning which will ensure they lose. I strongly believe if they did the former, then they would have a very strong chance of winning. It seems many in the party want the opposite to happen though, and when it's all done and dusted they won't be forgiven for not making the most of the opportunity when it presented itself.

Be interesting to see how pro Brexit labour rebels do, even in leave seats like there's majority of labour supporters voted remain

Well I hate to sound like a middle manager, but all this whining does is guarantee failure. For better or worse, Corbyn is leader and will fight the next election. Labour MPs, activists, supporters and voters can get behind him and try to win, or stand around moaning which will ensure they lose. I strongly believe if they did the former, then they would have a very strong chance of winning. It seems many in the party want the opposite to happen though, and when it’s all done and dusted they won’t be forgiven for not making the most of the opportunity when it presented itself.

Meanwhile ... in the real world out of Labour MPs, activists, supporters and voters which group is most important to winning a (hint) election?

in the real world out of Labour MPs, activists, supporters and voters which group is most important to winning a (hint) election?

There's no hope of voters voting for you if they think you don't want to win, and at the moment many labour MPs are giving exactly that impression.

No beard.

Perchy speaks truth. Beardymen are universally perceived as less trustworthy than clean shaved chaps.

Obviously (99.999%) inapplicable to ladies.

Also, current labour policy looks fine. Corbyn simply does not grab attention. Policy is not down to the figurehead anyway.

Think about why old farts and leavers love Joris. As much as anything else, as soon as he's on TV its the Joris Bohnson show, man of the people, funny haired mop top fop, he's on your side, he's sticking it to the man, it's good old Boris!

Then you get Corbyn. Blah de blah blah blah blah boring.

PS I'm not hating on Corbyn as a capable MP. He's simply not the man for the hot seat.

Again, which other politician can you remember who could pull in thousands to public campaign events?

The Peoples Vote campaign have hundreds of thousands of politically motivated people attend each march and the chants of "Where's Jeremy Corbyn" were ever present. Has Jeremy had 100 000's attend one of his jamboree's?

And to be fair to the hateful faarge, he has attracted crowds up and dow the country.

In a single issue GE both the tories and Labour stand to lose a good % of their vote to the BP.

The Peoples Vote campaign

Are they standing for election?

In a single issue GE both the tories and Labour stand to lose a good % of their vote to the BP.

It won't be a single issue election. Brexit will dominate but there are huge numbers of people who don't caree about it one way or the other.

Well I hate to sound like a middle manager, but all this whining does is guarantee failure.

Nope, all Corbyn does is guarantee failure. I will be voting Labour (I am actually Green but that is even more of a wasted vote than Labour where I live) but that does not mean I cannot criticise the leader and think that Labour's chances of winning would be far greater with a different person as leader.
You are simply not able to grasp how unpopular Corbyn is with most people. The polices don't even get a look in as people won't look past Corbyn. The Tories have played on this for a few years now and that is working well for them.

There’s no hope of voters voting for you if they think you don’t want to win, and at the moment many labour MPs are giving exactly that impression.

All a bit chicken and egg really.... regardless many Labour voters won't vote for him to be PM and even more swing voters.

I just wish these people who argue against Corbyn would just throw up their hands and be honest about being Tories.

That right there is the major reason that Corbyn, with Momentum behind him will never, ever win an election. Proper sixth form level 'debate', right there. Puerile!

Anyone who fails to swear allegiance in blood to St Jeremy and not see him as some kind of anointed deity is immediately defined as 'the enemy' and then treated with open hostility.

No criticism of the glorious leader will be tolerated. Anything the chosen one says must be taken as the gospel as if had just been brought down from a mountain engraved on stone tablets. Vitriol awaits anyone who dares question the almighty (peace be upon him)

It looks like a cult. And cults aren't very attractive places for the majority of people

There is only one way to win elections in this country. Blair knew it (boooo... hisss..... war criminal!!) You don't just have to pander to your core vote, who'll vote for you anyway, you need to reach out and convince people who aren't your natural constituency. You have to convince swing voters in marginal constituencies.

I don't think I've ever seen a politician less interested, or able, to do this than Jeremy Corbyn.

There is only one way to win elections in this country. Blair knew it (boooo… hisss….. war criminal!!) You don’t just have to pander to your core vote, who’ll vote for you anyway, you need to reach out and convince people who aren’t your natural constituency. You have to convince swing voters in marginal constituencies.

Bang on.

Unfortunately I only see Corbyn as a leader in a primary school headteacher, charity, local council department sort of way. Nothing wrong with that but lacks the statesman like qualities he needs to convince the masses.

I'll vote Lib Dem... because West Oxfordshire a Remain constituency has a hard Brexit supporting MP and **** all chance of getting anything but the incumbent prick back in parliament.

Proper sixth form level ‘debate’, right there.

No criticism of the glorious leader will be tolerated.

The people acting like sixth formers are the centrists. If they don't get the leader they want, they refuse to play ball and make defeat a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's hard to escape the conclusion that the centrists don't want to win an election, and don't want a second ref on brexit given their habit of voting to support Johnson's deal. I'm not going to call them tories, but you can see why some come to that conclusion when they do everything in their power to support them.

My predictions...

SNP make gains in Scotland (I reckon just a couple of seats at most for other parties)
BP also make gains from both Tories and Labour
LD make a few gains (~25 - 30 seats total)
Labour lose quite a few seats (JC has to stand down as a result)
Tories retain most seats overall, but no overall control
Other parties remain pretty much unchanged

My seat is Tory and last time round his majority was significantly reduced, I voted labour last time out, but can't do the same now with an unclear message from them

Every single time JC comes on the TV my wife says a variation of the same thing.

It's not " He hates Jews", or " I disagree with his policies because he's a Marxist / Secret Brexiteer / puppet of the Unions / cult leader / terrorist sympathiser / Magic Grandad / allottment owner  etc. etc."

It's always the same. " Look at the state of him....he looks like a tramp"  No matter what he says, she can't see past that.

He has a massive perception problem amongst a huge swathe of people who don't care that much about politics but like their politicians to appear  well groomed and statesmanlike.

He'll never be electable as long as he looks like the bloke who pretends to be Santa in B&M's.

People won't trust nuclear launch codes to a man who can't arrange a well ironed shirt.

It's Michael Foot all over again.