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We’re losing a partner to Qatar in two weeks. He’s only been a partner for less than two years.
Maybe try reflux meds or anti-mucolytics?
I’ve not read all that, but are people arguing that NHS employees shouldn’t be given a 2.8% pay rise?
No we are argueing about who deserves it more *rolleyes* and who has been shafted in pay deals |:-)
That makes more sense
Was this a consideration when you chose your career?
No. It's an interesting and rewarding job in itself, with a reasonable degree of autonomy.
There is a career path to management. IMV most of the people who take it do so because they can't really hack it on the frontline and it's an easier option.
Two people I know who've dipped their toes in the water are quite disillusioned because compared to clinical work it's all a bit meaningless.
Interesting stuff scattered within the usual rubbish.
Bottom line for me are the shocking recruitment and retention figures in teaching. I think in physics the gov reached 17% of it's recruitment target.
According to Google:
2022/23, almost 44,000 teachers left the state-funded sector, which is about one in 10 of all qualified teachers
A-level’s is about as close as you’ll get to like-for-like. The grades required for studying medicine are way above average and on a par with the sorts of grades associated with an application to magic circle (3 A’s and /or some A*’s).
So like I said at the start, choose your comparison… Academically, doctors compare very favourably academically with the rest of the population and against most other professions too.
23% of A-level students got 3 A's according to government stats below.
Can't find a very authoritative source just now on how many kids do A-levels but it seems like it's about 65%.
So those getting 3 A's at A-level can say they're in the top-15% of the population academically at that stage.
Top-15% in terms of average earnings is probably about £60k, ONS will have the actual figure if anybody wants to look it up.
So you'd have to conclude that there many of those who had the smarts to become doctors based on A-level grades, are now earning much less than doctors, would you not?
My partner is a maths teacher, she has SKE's for Chemistry, Physics and Biology as well. She does not mention these to anyone at work as "why would I want to get paid the same to teach multiple different subjects as I do to teach one?"
Leaving asside any discussion on what different jobs "should" be paid, there is one significant difference with public sector pay - the "employer" gets 25-40% of the rise straight back to their own budgets in income tax. So a 2.8% rise only costs maybe 1.8-2% in overall terms.
So you’d have to conclude that there many of those who had the smarts to become doctors based on A-level grades, are now earning much less than doctors, would you not?
And many are earning more. Which is the original point! Pick your comparison!
Apologies to the rest of the thread.
And many are earning more. Which is the original point! Pick your comparison!
I'm not sure what original point you are referring to but I was responding to the idea that to become a doctor, ones need particular academic ability which would be better rewarded in other jobs.
We then took 3 A's at A-level as the academic standard an individual needs to reach in order to demonstrate potential to become a doctor. So if that point was true you'd expect people who have 3 A's at A-level to be earning more than doctors on average.
But the stats don't support that, the average person who gets 3 A's at A-level likely actually earns a lot less than a doctor.
Don't get me wrong I don't think this argument is without flaws, but at least it's adding some objectivity.
Leaving asside any discussion on what different jobs “should” be paid, there is one significant difference with public sector pay – the “employer” gets 25-40% of the rise straight back to their own budgets in income tax. So a 2.8% rise only costs maybe 1.8-2% in overall terms.
what if you work for a town or a county council? Do their budgets increase with an increase in income tax?
23% of A-level students got 3 A’s
Not all A levels are of equal difficulty. 3 A's from Sociology, Business and PE doesn't really compare to Biology, Chemistry, Maths or Physics etc which medical students need.
Not all A levels are of equal difficulty. 3 A’s from Sociology, Business and PE doesn’t really compare to Biology, Chemistry, Maths or Physics etc which medical students need.
True. If we account for that, is it fair to say that to have the potential to be a doctor you need to be top-10% in terms of academic ability?
If so I'd say we're still a very long way from being able to guarantee that person could make it to board room positions in the private sector.
Top-10% is great but it is not a rare level of ability by any means. And let's not forget that to do very well in the private sector you usually need a lot more than just academic ability.
Top-15% in terms of average earnings is probably about £60k, ONS will have the actual figure if anybody wants to look it up.
Couldn't help myself. The 85th decile in 2022, which was the latest year on Gov.uk, earned £51,700. A gross income of £60k would be around the 89/90th decile.
We then took 3 A’s at A-level as the academic standard an individual needs to reach in order to demonstrate potential to become a doctor. So if that point was true you’d expect people who have 3 A’s at A-level to be earning more than doctors on average.
But that alone won’t get you in to medical school. You have to have work experience too and other extra curricular stuff . In fact not sure 3 A’s does get you in to medical school school.
A levels are easy compared to Royal College Exams that come later.
Two people I know who’ve dipped their toes in the water are quite disillusioned because compared to clinical work it’s all a bit meaningless.
It can be very challenging, you have to be really committed. Eve though I was still reasonably clinical the management side is very different, trying to keep staff moral up, dealing with that 1% of staff who take up 90% of your time and still won’t listen, then there’s trying to get some senior staff to listen to what it like for clinical staff.
But that alone won’t get you in to medical school. You have to have work experience too and other extra curricular stuff . In fact not sure 3 A’s does get you in to medical school school.
A levels are easy compared to Royal College Exams that come later.
I don't doubt it. A-levels alone don't mean anything in most private sector professions either, and are likewise easy compared to the professional qualifications that come later.
And let’s not forget that to do very well in the private sector you usually need a lot more than just academic ability.
From where I have been sat you need much more than good a levels to get into medical school too.
I am a teacher in Scotland. Last year, while inflation had been running at 11%+ we were offered 4.27% . I voted to reject, but the majority of my colleagues accepted, so that's what we got. The EIS union proclaimed that COSLA had said that the offer represented "the first step towards pay restoration." (IIRC overall a 22% reduction in real terms since 2008)
I cannot find any reference to COSLA actually saying that though. Surely the union isn't spinning their members a line? Let's see what this year's "restorative offer" looks like.
I don't trust the unions an inch. They were duplicitous during the last round of industrial action. They had a mandate for strike action over a 1 year, 10% claim, and ended up settling for a 30 month agreement where the final uplift was 1.2% (inflation at the point of uplift delivery was 4%). Slow hand clap.
At best they are inept. At worst, it looks like collusion.
FWIW I was picking my career path in the last half of the last labour government when doctors were considered to be paid well. I would in fact say it was the thing most associated with the job. I chose engineering instead purely out of personal interest, but I never expected to earn as much as a doctor. I think the gap has narrowed significantly now, it's no longer a selling point certainly - if a school kid wants to chase money now I suspect software engineer (or similar) is now the default recommendation.
I don’t trust the unions an inch. They were duplicitous during the last round of industrial action
Given that I was one of 4 standing on a picket line from a staff of 60+. That's nonsense. People walking into work asking for union help in the months that followed.
COSLA are going to work hard at suppressing any uplift in pay in the next round and staff numbers are not going to increase. Get involved in the unions if you want to influence how the negotiation goes.
COSLA are going to work hard at suppressing any uplift in pay in the next round and staff numbers are not going to increase.
This is exactly what I mean. I have actually been checking and the COSLA offer to the unions does say "An offer which attempts to addresses the inflationary pressure on your members, within the funding pressures noted above, and, above that, includes the first step in restoration of pay as requested by the teacher’s panel in our negotiations." Will COSLA stick to their word? Will the unions, who seem to have it in writing, hold them to it?
On the last day the EIS had us called out to strike, they has already decided that they were going to settle, but didn't reveal this until the next day. This caused a lot of bad feeling amongst my colleagues. The very day they announce agreement, the EIS Twitter feed was full of the unveiling of their Billboard campaign for Pay Attention 10%. WTF? Given that you've just settled, why put up posters?
This is going to be the issue with the BMA too - last year’s above inflation rise was meant to be a step towards pay restoration, and if this year’s doesn’t continue the theme, there is likely to be trouble (if not so much with the consultants, then with the trainees).
4
KramerFree Member
Hospital doctors – consultants and trainees ~ 2.8% following 20% pay rise agreed last year.GPs – 2.8% following 6% pay rise last year.
And then they wonder why they can’t retain GPs?
Your friendly skiers may have got 20% last year but if they did so it was because they were in a particularly beneficial part of the pay scale and very much in a minority. The agreement that settled the consultants' pay dispute significantly shortened the number of years it takes to get from the bottom to the top of the pay scale and therefore some individuals moved up dramatically. At my stage of career it was more like 11% and in fact I slightly reduced my regular overtime to take part of the rise in time rather than pay. Sorry, I cannot hack 48-52 hour weeks anymore. That is on the back of a 22% or so real terms reduction in pay since 2008, hence the campaign last year being for pay restoration rather than pay rise. No comparable pay grouping had seen anywhere near that degree of fall behind https://twitter.com/goldstone_tony/ status/1743335070692155616/photo/1 although overall there has on average been a 2% fall back in all workers pay over that time.
This is the government's bid to the review bodies, I suspect that the unions' evidence is going to be slightly different, and it is going to be very interesting to see what the review bodies do. In the case of the doctors, a large part of the agreement to settle the dispute was the re-establishment of the review body so that it had an increased level of expertise and so that its remit included taking into consideration pay levels in similar professions in the UK and for doctors abroad.
Within my specialty in my hospital we should have four consultants, but currently have two. Both of us could retire with full pension in the next 18 months and of the other two posts one colleague moved abroad and doubled their salary and the other we just cannot get anyone to apply for and haven't been able to since before the pandemic.
And yes, we are still better off than our GP colleagues, and yes, the resident doctors ( as the trainees are now described ) are going to be singularly unimpressed.
if a school kid wants to chase money now I suspect software engineer (or similar) is now the default recommendation.
Going away from main theme but I’d advise mathematics to anyone starting out and then specialise in data science and AI /ML. Software is mainly out in India and China now and 90% of code begins with an ask to an AI engine.
With the rise of AI we will see a very different landscape for jobs and wearable tech advances will be particularly transformational for health care professionals not always in a good way for them.
With the rise of AI we will see a very different landscape for jobs and wearable tech advances will be particularly transformational for health care professionals not always in a good way for them.
When AI can do a Hartmann’s I will be impressed.
More seriously, AI probably does have a role in diagnostics and decision support, and wearables are already a thing. But there is more to medicine than just diagnosis.
When AI can do a Hartmann’s I will be impressed.
We should be more impressed when AI comes up with preventatives and detect disease much earlier and thus reduce the need for such invasive surgery.
I'll be more impressed when AI can write a test for 14yo's on simple electrical circuits.
We should be more impressed when AI comes up with preventatives and detect disease
That already exists. Are we saying that if its AI is telling people to stop being lazy, slovenly shits who need to eat less crap and move more then people will listen?
I won't hold my breath.
We should be more impressed when AI comes up with preventatives and detect disease much earlier and thus reduce the need for such invasive surgery.
It won't, as no amount of screening is going to prevent a perforated diverticulum, and ultimately we have screening programmes (for other things) now that people don't always engage with.
We should be more impressed when AI comes up with preventatives and detect disease much earlier and thus reduce the need for such invasive surgery.
The problem is that to detect the disease earlier you almost certainly end up with more false positives, which not only cause patients needless worry but block up the healthcare system with the worried well.
That already exists. Are we saying that if its AI is telling people to stop being lazy, slovenly shits who need to eat less crap and move more then people will listen?
AI could learn how to word the advice in a way that patients find non-judgemental or with realistic stepping stones rather than expecting overnight transformative change.
I’ll be more impressed when AI can write a test for 14yo’s on simple electrical circuits.
Simple Electrical Circuits Test
Instructions:
* Read each question carefully.
* Choose the best answer for each question.
* Show your work for any calculations.
Section 1: Multiple Choice
1. What are the three main components of a simple electrical circuit?
A. Battery, wire, switch
B. Bulb, wire, switch
C. Battery, bulb, wire
D. All of the above
2. What is the purpose of a battery in a circuit?
A. To light the bulb
B. To provide energy to the circuit
C. To control the flow of electricity
D. To connect the components together
3. What is the purpose of a switch in a circuit?
A. To light the bulb
B. To provide energy to the circuit
C. To control the flow of electricity
D. To connect the components together
4. What is the purpose of a wire in a circuit?
A. To light the bulb
B. To provide energy to the circuit
C. To control the flow of electricity
D. To connect the components together
5. What happens to the brightness of two bulbs connected in series if you add a third bulb?
A. The bulbs get brighter
B. The bulbs stay the same brightness
C. The bulbs get dimmer
D. The bulbs turn off
6. What happens to the brightness of two bulbs connected in parallel if you add a third bulb?
A. The bulbs get brighter
B. The bulbs stay the same brightness
C. The bulbs get dimmer
D. The bulbs turn off
7. If one bulb in a series circuit burns out, what happens to the other bulbs?
A. The other bulbs stay lit
B. The other bulbs get dimmer
C. The other bulbs turn off
D. Nothing happens
8. If one bulb in a parallel circuit burns out, what happens to the other bulbs?
A. The other bulbs stay lit
B. The other bulbs get dimmer
C. The other bulbs turn off
D. Nothing happens
9. Which type of circuit provides more light, a series circuit or a parallel circuit?
A. Series circuit
B. Parallel circuit
C. They provide the same amount of light
D. It depends on the number of bulbs
10. Which type of circuit is more common in homes, a series circuit or a parallel circuit?
A. Series circuit
B. Parallel circuit
C. They are equally common
D. It depends on the appliance
Section 2: Short Answer
1. Draw a diagram of a simple electrical circuit with a battery, bulb, and switch.
2. Explain the difference between a series circuit and a parallel circuit.
3. What is the purpose of a fuse in an electrical circuit?
4. What is the difference between a conductor and an insulator?
5. Give two examples of conductors and two examples of insulators.
Section 3: Problem Solving
1. A student builds a circuit with three bulbs connected in series. If the voltage of the battery is 9 volts, what is the voltage across each bulb?
2. A student builds a circuit with two bulbs connected in parallel. If the current through one bulb is 2 amps, what is the total current in the circuit?
3. A student wants to build a circuit with four bulbs connected in parallel. If each bulb has a resistance of 10 ohms, what is the total resistance of the circuit?
4. A student has a circuit with a battery, a bulb, and a switch. The student wants to add another bulb to the circuit. Draw two different ways that the student could add the second bulb.
5. A student is troubleshooting a circuit that is not working. What are three things the student could check to try to fix the circuit?
Answer Key
Section 1: Multiple Choice
1. D
2. B
3. C
4. D
5. C
6. B
7. C
8. A
9. B
10. B
Section 2: Short Answer
1. Diagram should show a battery, bulb, and switch connected in a loop.
2. In a series circuit, the components are connected one after the other, so the current flows through each component in turn. In a parallel circuit, the components are connected across each other, so the current can flow through each component independently.
3. A fuse is a safety device that melts and breaks the circuit if the current gets too high, preventing a fire.
4. A conductor is a material that allows electricity to flow through it easily, while an insulator is a material that does not allow electricity to flow through it easily.
5. Conductors: copper, silver, gold, aluminum
Insulators: plastic, rubber, wood, glass
Section 3: Problem Solving
1. 3 volts
2. 4 amps
3. 2.5 ohms
4. The student could add the second bulb in series with the first bulb, or in parallel with the first bulb.
5. The student could check the battery to make sure it is working, check the wires to make sure they are connected properly, and check the bulbs to make sure they are not burned out.
Courtesy of Gemini.
Spin, that’s a beautiful illustration of AI’s ability to look credible at a glance but actually have no understanding of the subject and so create a really poor output. Of course with better crafted input instructions you probably can get reasonable output but if you know how to ask the right questions you’d know how to create the paper yourself!
I think your job is safe!
All I put in was something along the lines of write a test for 14 year olds on simple electrical circuits. If you have the course spec or text you can copy that in and ask it to generate questions based on that.
I've used it for this quite a bit and although it produces the odd dud question it's generally pretty good and at least gives a framework. It also sometimes throws up something you wouldn't have thought of which can be very useful.
I wouldn't use it for things like SQA unit assessments where there are hard criteria or for something high stakes like a prelim but for quick understanding checks it's an absolute game changer.
Too many teachers are dismissive of it for the same reason they dismiss resources produced by others or commercial materials; that it's not exactly how they'd do it. This is one of the biggest generators of unnecessary work in teaching.
I think your job is safe!
I'm not worried about it taking my job but I am excited about how it can make my job easier and even make somethings better!
The problem is that to detect the disease earlier you almost certainly end up with more false positives, which not only cause patients needless worry but block up the healthcare system with the worried well.
Getting a real Luddite vibe 🙂
Why would you have a higher FP or FN? The whole point of AI is that it does a better job at reduce FP while not impacting FN than a human (thus freeing up more time incidentally) otherwise why would you bother? No one should be deploying an ML model that performs worse than a human in a safety critical scenario.
but actually have no understanding of the subject
I'm quite content for it to have no understanding of the subject! A calculator has no understanding of the subject but it's still a useful tool.
All I put in was something along the lines of write a test for 14 year olds on simple electrical circuits. If you have the course spec or text you can copy that in and ask it to generate questions based on that.
I’ve used it for this quite a bit and although it produces the odd dud question it’s generally pretty good and at least gives a framework. It also sometimes throws up something you wouldn’t have thought of which can be very useful.
Oh you actually thought those were helpful questions! I could pick fault with almost every question, but the howlers: Q1 - "what are the three main components of a circult" (a weird question given not all circuits have any of them except the wires) - then the answer is D - all of the above which is 4 components!; Q5 and 6 - it doesn't tell you if the 3rd bulb is also in series or parallel - you have to assume; Q9 - is a stupid question it doesn't tell you if the bulbs are all the same etc, so you have to guess what the question setter meant. Q10, again you have to guess that "in homes" they mean in your house wiring, because both serial and parallel circuits are common within appliances - often both in the same appliance! Perhaps a reasonable assumption till you see answer D! Part 2: A3 - defines what a fuse is (which was not the question) and then adds "preventing a fire" but a fuse could just as easily protect the components from damage as prevent a fire. A5 - its odd to me that metals and air/vacuum would not be given as legitimate examples. Part3: Q1 and 2 seem to assume that all bulbs have the same resistance, perhaps thats reasonable, but then in Q3 they explicitly tell you that fact!
Yes, I'm being pernickety, and of course you could have given it a more specific prompt (although if this was for 14 yr olds I'd expect the switched on ones to be just as annoying as me). What I'm not sure about is if chat gpt + reviewing the results and revising the bad questions is actually a time saving over just setting good questions to start with!
Oh you actually thought those were helpful questions! I
No, I'm not a physics teacher and can't remember much of my school physics so I have no idea if they were useful.
As I said and as you acknowledged the input was pretty vague so it's no surprise if the output isn't fantastic. It's not some miracle device, the old adage, put crap in get crap out still applies.
I've used it in my subject (geography) with better input and found it generates helpful questions. The less good questions also generate interesting discussion. It's also great for summarising text.
I'm really only dipping my toe into it but I expect to make increasingly use of AI in the coming years.
Why would you have a higher FP or FN? The whole point of AI is that it does a better job at reduce FP while not impacting FN than a human (thus freeing up more time incidentally) otherwise why would you bother? No one should be deploying an ML model that performs worse than a human in a safety critical scenario.
That's obviously the desired outcome. The reality of a lot of AI diagnostics is that either there is no "human benchmark" so surely "early warning must be good compared to ignorance", e.g. a wearable that detects signals in asymptomatic patients OR to detect it earlier (which was what I was responding to) it is working with weaker "signals" which frequently mean balancing the FP/FN. AI will only ever work with the training set and inputs it's given - a professional clinician can look at the patient as see stuff that gives them intuition (both the patient is, or is not, sick). Lots of "wellness" test stuff is presented as not being safety critical, but may alert a user to see a human professional. Is that good for the individual patient? quite possibly, it may help detect disease if they have it. Is it good for the system? e.g. lets say my watch warns me about a pattern with my heart rate, now I take up my GPs time. I seem healthy, but my GP likely has no meaningful data on the accuracy of my watch - so now has to make a decision - refer to a specialist and cover his ass taking up more time for someone who does not seem ill, or risk being headline news in the local paper next month if I drop dead and the GP ignored my fancy AI wearable. Meanwhile Mrs Jones who actually has some symptoms that a cardiologist would be interested in, is hearing in the same local paper that it's virtually impossible to get appointments at the GP so puts it off...
Do I believe AI has potential to have huge positive impact in healthcare - absolutely. Do I think that it's suddenly going to be diagnosing people much earlier - no I'm afraid not. Now it might speed up drug discovery, identification of diagnostic biomarkers particularly combinations of biomarkers, patient admin tasks, avoiding errors from repetatively staring at data, even alerting to errors or overlooked issues but despite the hype, AI is really hard to train on diagnostics, and earlier diagnostics harder still as finding good data where people definitely do or don't have disease state at an early stage is non-trivial, even more when you need to correct for age, gender, ethnic, dietary, weight, fitness and other factors. And if you believe it will be quick, you've clearly never worked in the world of regulated medical device development...
Lot to unpack but here goes.
1. AI Diagnostic Challenges:
- Early detection is complex due to weak signals and the need to balance false positives and false negatives
- AI is constrained by its training data and inputs, unlike human clinicians who can use intuition
2. Potential Unintended Consequences:
- Wellness technology might prompt unnecessary medical consultations
- GPs face difficult decisions about how to respond to AI-generated alerts
- Potential systemic inefficiencies could emerge, potentially diverting resources from patients with more urgent needs
3. Realistic Perspective on AI in Healthcare:
- The author believes AI has significant potential but is skeptical about claims of dramatically earlier disease diagnosis
- More promising near-term applications include:
- Speeding up drug discovery
- Identifying diagnostic biomarkers
- Improving patient administration
- Reducing human error in data analysis
4. Major Obstacles:
- Obtaining high-quality training data for early-stage disease diagnosis is extremely challenging
- Need to account for numerous variables like age, gender, ethnicity, diet, fitness
- Medical device development is a slow, highly regulated process
The core message is one of cautious optimism: AI has transformative potential in healthcare, but current expectations often outpace technological and regulatory realities.
I think we are agreeing BTW. Not trying to be a smart arse but demonstrate how useful AI can be to disseminate meaning.
The ex physics teacher in me says 6B is the wrong answer because the battery has an internal resistance and the voltage of the battery will decrease as load increases, the bulbs will all dim a bit as you add more in parallel.
Madame Edukator noticed kids using AI for homework. Thing is that AI is shit and its really obvious. Kids soon learn that Madame Edukator is more intelligent than AI.
Looking a better deal this morning with inflation at 2.6%....
Edukator - there is no explicit mention of a battery in 6 - other power supplies are available!
Do I believe AI has potential to have huge positive impact in healthcare – absolutely. Do I think that it’s suddenly going to be diagnosing people much earlier – no I’m afraid not.
I can see multiple practical uses for AI in healthcare. I'd be very happy with my GP conversation being monitored by a LLM, which effectively acts as a third person in the discussion who only speaks up if they have legitimate concerns that something obvious is being missed.
Offload the time-consuming taking of history to the computer, which can present it as a standardised format prior to the appointment with concerns flagged. Let the doctors do the difficult bit of decision making, and after the appointment the LLM can chat forever about next steps / timescales / risks / the weather / etc. A soundproof booth with a virtual doctor that you visit after the appointment would work nicely.
In my industry we tend to use automation where we can because it tends to free up cognitive skills for decision making. If I were designing this I'd be having the conversation with GPs and finding out which bit of the job they hate, and dumping that on a computer.
I can see multiple practical uses for AI in healthcare. I’d be very happy with my GP conversation being monitored by a LLM, which effectively acts as a third person in the discussion who only speaks up if they have legitimate concerns that something obvious is being missed.
Would you be happy if google / microsoft / some other healthco was "listening in" to your medical conversation?
Whilst I can see the attraction of a LLM "overseeing" the Dr and highlighting possible errors: Alexa can't even tell the difference between "15 and 50 minutes" half the time, and I've never seen "AI" meeting minutes that were error-free, so I'm not sure I'd want the overseer to be hard of hearing!
What if the AI was saying - doc, probably don't order those tests they are expensive and there's <5% chance the patient has that?
Offload the time-consuming taking of history to the computer, which can present it as a standardised format prior to the appointment with concerns flagged.
IANAD - but is time-consuming taking of history actually a problem or is it how you build patient raport? is it just about what they say or the way that they say it?
the thing is, taking a history is not just about the words, its about the body language, its about experience knowing how people say one thing but may mean another, its about knowing how to ask each person the right ( subtly different) questions to get the answers you want.
it's also sometimes about the signs you can see by observing the patient, something that even telephone conversations with real human Drs don't allow for.
Non medical people often assume that diagnosis is a clear cut thing. It can be but it can also be about gut feelings based on years of experience. This is what experienced GP's do very well