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bike financing will be a thing soon surely. ie rent it for 3 years and then trade it in….
God yeah, the Subscription model is only just getting into it's stride.
nickc
If BSO didn’t exist, then none of that stuff would’ve made it to market at all. the development money for Di2 comes from sales of non branded Shimano derailleurs/brakes, chainsets etc made in their hundreds of thousands in Vietnam and Thailand.
Right, but that wasn't your original point - your point was that companies only develop things which they can sell on BSOs, which is not the case.
Cant imagine gearboxes on utility bikes, hubs are popular as they require little or no tooling, hub goes in where the hub goes, connect a shifter and your away.
A gearbox, even if it was the same price as a hub, would make the frames much more expensive to make. Even if it was a simple frame mounted hub in a bracket thats still more metal and more welds. And not of any benefit to that market. Same reason why hub motor e-bikes are popular, they do the same job as an expensive one, but at a lower price point.
thisisnotaspoon
I’m surprised Cannondale weren’t the first TBH, needle bearings and integrated stuff are their hallmarks.
Does seem like a very small step from a lefty with a lockout
regenerative breaking for ebikes
No more repairs!
dangerousbrain – I thought in the context of this discussion hub gears were gearboxes?
Ah fair do.
Nicolai’s new one is launching shortly, according to them.
But unless its a lot cheaper than the current one it'll still not drive any sort of market development even if it wakes you in the morning with a kiss and a cup or artisan espresso.
They're awesome bikes, loved mine, but it's not any sort of example of what's going to appear in the general market.
And e-bikes will only speed it along.
That I really can't see, why develop a gearbox and a motor plus all the gubbins to get them to play nicely if a million different mounting configurations when you could just develop a geared motor?
regenerative breaking for ebikes
No more repairs
I'm amazed it took this long for anyone to notice
What I don’t get is why hasn’t the Honda DH bike solution made it into production…All the benefits of both; in a box fixable at home, understandable componentry for the home mechanic, fewer new parts to make, less exposed to dirt and damage..?
I think the answer to that lies in this picture, that is not a production ready product! That looks insanely custom made and very, very expensive!
[img] 
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From here: http://downhill24.bike/inside-info-honda-rn01-silver-bullet/
nickc
Also related to this discussion….Why is a good percentage of this forum obsessed (and I use the word advisedly) with compatibility?
Why should bicycle bits in 2020 fit bicycles made in 2010 (or older) I’ve never really understood it.
More that you've misunderstood it. I don't think people have an issue with genuine progress - thru axles over QR, etc. People get pissed off with changes of standard that deliver no benefit. Like 15mm axles, when there was already a 20mm standard. 20mm disappeared, and now we have 15mm, but with torque caps to attempt to make it stiffer, the way 20mm was.
For folks who build, maintain and upgrade bikes, that sort of thing is a pain. To someone who buys a full bike off the shelf, it doesn't matter so much.
To be fair, a lot of the manufacturers do a pretty good job with compatibility - you can argue the benefits of boost, but most companies cane out with conversion kits and the like.
Super Boost Hubs
1.8 inch Steerer tubes
Wider Bottom Brackets as standard
Instant engagement hubs for all
Bigger everything.
Gearboxes and electronics will be no different in time.
1. Gearboxes require precision machining, which is expensive. Derailleurs and cassettes will always be cheaper to make. Cheap bikes will keep using derailleurs.
2. Gearboxes will always be draggier than derailleur systems because the gear teeth have to slide over each other. There's no way around that, it's a physical limitation. Racers will keep using derailleurs because they are more efficient.
An alternative to normal gearboxes might be a system using multiple chains instead of gear drives, but I'm sure someone has already tried it. It wouldn't solve the cost problem but I think it might reduce the drivetrain drag. But, it will always be a niche market.
I do wonder what happened to the lighter long travel bikes the mags were going on about a short while ago. Everything reviewed lately seems to be around the 32lb mark, which, despite what others say, I think is too heavy for a trail bike. Best thing about my old 575 was it had a decent amount of travel, but cos it weighed 27/28lb it was still fun to ride uphill. A 32lb isn't! no matter how well it rides downhill.
thisisnotaspoon
A gearbox, even if it was the same price as a hub, would make the frames much more expensive to make. Even if it was a simple frame mounted hub in a bracket thats still more metal and more welds. And not of any benefit to that market. Same reason why hub motor e-bikes are popular, they do the same job as an expensive one, but at a lower price point
That depends - if Shimano (for example) come out with a standard gearbox unit - it basically replaced cranks, cassette, chainring, etc - and you just bolt that to a frame.
Now all your frames just need the mounting plate/shell welded in instead of a BB shell. You still weld the seattube, downtube and chainstays to one piece, and the gearbox bolts on (not unlike an ebike motor - you might be able to standardise around that somewhat). And there's no cabling to the rear wheel, which is another simplification.
Droppers that go down as well as up. (I doubt we'll see integrated droppers, it's not like integrated seatposts are that big on the road, but arguably more practical on MTB assuming that it would be possible to modify the extension per-rider).
Agree on some sort of system to allow precise and/or easy stem/steerer alignment would be useful, so we're unlikely to see it.
I expect we'll see more electronics on bikes.
Flat mount will probably become more prevalent for no good reason.
Boost surely has to be the most useless change in recent years, esp. on the front.
I think the answer to that lies in this picture, that is not a production ready product! That looks insanely custom made and very, very expensive!
Haha, that does look like metal soup right enough...But in theory it's "just" a chainset, cassette and mech, in a box...how hard can it be?
You still weld the seattube, downtube and chainstays to one piece,
That's a lot of big expensive bike making machines that now can't make bikes though.
Fine for Bob the bike builder, not so fine for giant
I think the frame mounting is one of the major disadvantages of gearboxes - if you make a frame for a gearbox, it can ONLY fix a gearbox, whereas a normal BB can fit any one of tens of different groupsets from several different manufacturers.
Limiting your potential market generally isn't a good thing for sales! Shimano/SRAM need to come out with the gearbox and and standardised mount, only then will the bikes follow.
It'd be like launching a frame and making it only compatible with SRAM AXS and Code RSC brake calipers.
WTF is with everyone finding aligning bars so difficult? A bit fiddly, sure, needing a splined steerer, not even close.
Now all your frames just need the mounting plate/shell welded in instead of a BB shell
wait a minute ago you were complaining about in incompatibility of an axle, but now you think tying yourself into a drive-train "standard" is the way forward?
Last time I brought it up someone tried to argue current steerers where better in a crash than a keyed / splined steerer, like that's some kind of designed in feature. I'd like a system where alignment is right without having to fart about.
£10K bikes will become more common (fancier materials / electronics etc not necessarily better) so I suppose hire purchase similar to cars.
1x and road disc now everywhere I think these have already happened.
Gravel bikes more / subtle suspension, 10-20mm integrated.
Fs gravel bikes
“That’s a lot of big expensive bike making machines that now can’t make bikes though.”
Where are these bike making machines? I’ve never seen any evidence of them across the industry! Car manufacturing, yes, but bike makers seem to go wherever the human welders are cheapest.
nickc
wait a minute ago you were complaining about in incompatibility of an axle, but now you think tying yourself into a drive-train “standard” is the way forward?
I don't want to overstuff the list of things you've misunderstood or misinterpreted, but if you actually read my post, you'll see this quote:
"I don’t think people have an issue with genuine progress – thru axles over QR, etc. People get pissed off with changes of standard that deliver no benefit."
Now, I know you were probably just trying and failing to be smart, but no, I don't expect my BB shell to accommodate a BB, any more than I expect my gearbox frame to accommodate my BSA BB.
In fact, if you scroll back further, I was even suggesting that gearboxes and e-bike motors might be able to use the same standard for mounting.
Fs gravel bikes
Firstly: Get in the sea. Secondly, doesn't Niner already make one?
More electronics and integration tying you to either sram or shimano. Electronic damping on ebikes using the motor battery to power it.
Some sort of charging / recovery system to recharge the battery when descending to extend their range
I was even suggesting that gearboxes and e-bike motors might be able to use the same standard for mounting.
what if, and I'm just guessing here, SRAM and Shimano doesn't want to share their standard with each other, or after a couple of years one of them realises that their Standard needs changing, or they change the standards...just because, y'know, like 15mm and 20mm axles?
Fs gravel bikes
... doesn’t Niner already make one?
They tried... did it ever actually go on sale?
nickc
what if, and I’m just guessing here, SRAM and Shimano doesn’t want to share their standard with each other, or after a couple of years one of them realises that their Standard needs changing, or they change the standards…just because, y’know, like 15mm and 20mm axles?
The standard (what I'm suggesting) would be a good thing. The change in standard that might happen subsequently wouldn't be a good thing, unless it was necessary for some new innovation.
I'd refer you to earlier point about standards ,as it seems you misunderstood that too.
DezB
They tried… did it ever actually go on sale?
Yep, it did
https://www.jensonusa.com/Niner-MCR-9-RDO-5-Star-ETAP-LTD-Bike-2020
SRAM are at least making a universal Mech hanger, so they're interested in having a single, shared standard.
Although...
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That cartoon needs another box in which honourablegeorge gets to decide useful and non-useful standards.
The change in standard that might happen subsequently wouldn’t be a good thing, unless it was necessary for some new innovation.
Plenty of moaning (still) about xd, though seemingly microspline gets less grief. (Despite adding nothing to the open xd standard).
A lot of people want standards not because they're as good as our better than but simply because they don't like change, or progress (not all progress is good but that doesn't change the reality it is progress) or throwing away their perfectly serviceable rod brakes just so they can have a suspension fork.
You may not be one of those folk but, by and large, the desire for standards to stay the same is driven by the desire to use old crap* on new things.
*it's not all crap but for everyone who bemoans not being able to use their old xtr kit on their new bike there's about 400 moaning their original sis shifters don't play with the new 12 speed stuff they want.
https://www.jensonusa.com/Niner-MCR-9-RDO-5-Star-ETAP-LTD-Bike-2020
/blockquote>I'd have one. But for that seatpost (needs a dropper!) I have that seatpost on my Tripster and it scratches if you just breathe on it. For $8K you'd expect something better spec'ed 😀
Situation: There are 15 competing standards.
15?! 6 of those are outdated and need revising/updating. Yeah!
Soon: There are 21 competing standards.
nickc
That cartoon needs another box in which honourablegeorge gets to decide useful and non-useful standards.
And subtitles to explain the joke, as you've probably misunderstood that too.
A very slight pull back from LLS towards a more everyday trail based geometry thats a bit more lively and fun for the 95% less gnar non enduro stuff most people ride.
dangeourbrain
Plenty of moaning (still) about xd, though seemingly microspline gets less grief. (Despite adding nothing to the open xd standard).
A lot of people want standards not because they’re as good as our better than but simply because they don’t like change, or progress (not all progress is good but that doesn’t change the reality it is progress) or throwing away their perfectly serviceable rod brakes just so they can have a suspension fork.
You may not be one of those folk but, by and large, the desire for standards to stay the same is driven by the desire to use old crap* on new things.
I saw XD as a good thing - it brought the 10t cog, and the cassettes were lighter as a result - GX 10-42 is about 25% lighter than XT 11-46, but has slightly wider range, and solves the issue of cassettes biting into the freehub, and most XD freehubs are lighter, too.
So there was a good reason for the change, and it's more or less backwards compatible if you fit a new freehub, although they cost a few quid.
Agree Microspline adds nothing, although I don't know if Shimano could have made XD cassettes without a license fee.
DezB
I’d have one. But for that seatpost (needs a dropper!)
Yeah, I'm looking at the saddle/seatpost in the pic and picturing getting stuck behind it om something steep and never being able to get back to a seated position.
It's a weirdly specific thing, that bike, but maybe starts to make some sense for the US where there's a big network of unpaved dirt roads.
Extending handlebars akin to dropper posts. Press button, squeeze them in to 90's XC width for the headwind on the road, press button again and pop them out to full 800mm glory for carving the gnarr. Somewhere in the middle for the narrow gaps between trees...
On splined steerer tubes, I can see that causing a lot of broken bars - I crashed recently hard enough to spin my stem around yet I could barely move them to realign them, had to loosen off the stem.
Something I hope that continues onwards, is dropper post length. 200mm, 210mm, why stop there? Give me 250mm, 300mm!*
*I know, there will come a limit when the length of drop is more than the length of the post itself.
You know those cheap telescopic fishing rods? We need dropper posts like that. 150mm on the first extension, and another 100mm inside that.
That depends – if Shimano (for example) come out with a standard gearbox unit – it basically replaced cranks, cassette, chainring, etc – and you just bolt that to a frame.
Now all your frames just need the mounting plate/shell welded in instead of a BB shell. You still weld the seattube, downtube and chainstays to one piece, and the gearbox bolts on (not unlike an ebike motor – you might be able to standardise around that somewhat). And there’s no cabling to the rear wheel, which is another simplification.
Still means all that effort for no benefit. Centralizing mass makes sense on an OFF road bike. For bimbling to the shop it's a non issue.
I'm sure properly viable gearboxes will appear at some point for MTB's, and they might even appear on a handful of commuters (Trek did a Gates belt drive for example) But I can't see it ever gaining market share anywhere else, there's just not the benefit.
The average person probably can't even comprehend riding the 2000+ miles it takes to wear out a chain on a road bike, let alone the idea that they'd pay a significant premium to avoid this potential £40 problem in the future.
Boost surely has to be the most useless change in recent years, esp. on the front.
Front maybe, although arguably it was less inconvenient as a result because you could just wack a spacer on your old wheels and be good to go.
Rear it made sense, you can't actually build certain combinations of rims/hubs within the manufacturers spec because the NDS spokes are so slack. My last pair was Stans Crest 29er rims and the spoke angles are such that to get the drive side ones under the tension limit the none drive side are practically loose. Only remedy was to go ~10% over and accept they will likely crack at some point.
TBH though they could just have gone with 150mm DH hubs (or 157 or whatever the flanged version is).
There are lower spec versions of that Niner.
https://www.jensonusa.com/Niner-MCR-9-RDO-3-Star-Bike-2020
Here's one I'm going to throw out there that I don't fully believe in:
Gravel TT bikes.
Just cos I've seen some pics of people doing adventure races with clip on bars on their gravel bikes. Maybe someone will make a purpose-built thing for those folk.
the new shimano gearbox is effectively just a mech-and-cassette-in-a-box (albeit with 2 cassettes, not one) - so from an efficiency perspective it should pretty much match a traditional arrangement.
I'm interested in whether that might lead to a driveshaft (which could telescope, or have a range of places that one end can integrate to the drivetrain), rather than a chain to the rear wheel, effectively removing issues with squat/anti-squat, tensioners, etc
More cheaper carbon and maybe a combination of carbon with lugs or something. Looking to save manufacturing costs.
Higher end looking at strengthening carbon frames in areas consistent with fatigue or impacts.
More minuscule changes to shocks,forks and brakes meaning a retool for everyone.
1x for road bikes. There is no good reason not to for the vast majority. Unless you are going up an down Alp D'uez on your ride then a much simpler gear arrangement would be fine.
the new shimano gearbox is effectively just a mech-and-cassette-in-a-box (albeit with 2 cassettes, not one) – so from an efficiency perspective it should pretty much match a traditional arrangement.
I’m interested in whether that might lead to a driveshaft (which could telescope, or have a range of places that one end can integrate to the drivetrain), rather than a chain to the rear wheel, effectively removing issues with squat/anti-squat, tensioners, etc
The different being that the cogs in a box solution could have a heavier duty chain, and a constant oil bath - which is no different to a cam chain on a car, which lasts for 100,000's of miles. Maybe a little more drag with the oil 'sump' but not much.
Driveshafts I can't see - just look at motorbikes, 98% of them still use chains.
With a gearbox and seperate output shaft/cog, comes the ability to move the effective chainset location quite a bit, you could have a high pivot bike with the output shaft next to the pivot, and the crankset 50/60mm lower down.
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Electronic shifting is going to work it’s way down the group set levels so it’ll be available across all the price ranges.
It’s not inherently expensive and it saves on materials.
It’ll be easy to sell in bike shops to the casual user and desirable to geeks who like to connect their phones to everything.
I imagine it’ll be easier to maintain and adjust over the long term too. Cable operated gears must be the most common problem area for riders.
Pulling on bits of wire will become niche like vinyl.
Belt drives are terrible off road for being chewed to pieces
Specialized are launching a flat-bar version of their Diverge. It should be perfect for shouldering up a mountain!
I spent about 20 years between about 1990 and 2010 trying to create exactly that kind of fast, lightweight, comfortable XC bike!
So, full circle then.
Another drivetrain idea i was thinking of the other day is larger freewheel/ratchet diameters. Seems odd that as cassette diameters have increased that the actual pawl/ratchet mechanism has stayed as small as it is buried within. Surely its size could increase to take some space of the cassette. This would lead to smaller engagement angle and stronger mechanisms.
You can have that one for free mr SRAM
Another drivetrain idea i was thinking of the other day is larger freewheel/ratchet diameters. Seems odd that as cassette diameters have increased that the actual pawl/ratchet mechanism has stayed as small as it is buried within. Surely its size could increase to take some space of the cassette. This would lead to smaller engagement angle and stronger mechanisms.
You can have that one for free mr SRAM
That would require another freehub standard, yes? 😀
Not sure how hubs would work with spoke tensions etc, with one flange being massive and the other small.
Also, massive flange.
ta11pau1
Driveshafts I can’t see – just look at motorbikes, 98% of them still use chains.
I thought the CeramicSpeed one was really interesting. Not sure it solves a problem, but it was a really impressive bit of engineering, and they claimed t have a version working with a full suspension frame
https://www.jensonusa.com/Niner-MCR-9-RDO-5-Star-ETAP-LTD-Bike-2020
I’d have one.
I've got one 🙂 Not quite that spec, though. Early days, but really enjoying it so far.
Not sure if we'll see many more like it, but I suspect that we will see more bump-taming ideas applied to gravel bikes.
Hopefully not much. I think MTB need to get it focus back on riding rather than the equipment. MTB is great fun but the consumerism in it has gone from high to stratigraphic.
Boost has sorted the axle issues that have been around for years, tapered headtubes ditto. Geo in each sub genre of mtbn is pretty much there, only minor tweaks.
Trickle down of electronic shifting will happen. Electronic brakes no chance.
Gearboxes on electric bikes will happen, less sure about on normal bikes.
I suspect that we will see more bump-taming ideas applied to gravel bikes.
Agreed. Really wish I’d bought a headshock Cannondale cross bike back in the day… something like that with no pretence at being race ready, will be coming from the bigger brands. Procalibre style rear cush as well. Gravel bikes will become better for mountain biking than your first mtb was. Mind you, if you’re old enough, that may already be true! The focus on them looking like touring/backpacking bikes will fade as well… they’ll start looking more like bikes designed to take out for shorter (faster) day rides… few people really use them like pack horses.
All the fuss about anything that uses chains and rear derailleurs… ignore that chains and derailleurs have won out for very good reasons… they’re going nowhere.
Not sure electronic gears have proven their worth at the top end yet… both the big two have fantastic electronic offerings, and riding a bike fitted with either of them is always a good experience… but going back to cable offerings never really feels like a big step down, does it? Not sure it’s really worth the development effort of trickling electronic down to cheaper bikes for anyone.
1x for road bikes. There is no good reason not to for the vast majority. Unless you are going up an down Alp D’uez on your ride then a much simpler gear arrangement would be fine.
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working.
In no particular order:
Lighter e-bikes with less output. Lapierre led the game with this and now specialized have caught on I see that being the next big thing over the next few years. I can't see regenerative breaking and other tech like that going onto e-bikes purely from a weight perspective.
Improved bearings & sealing interfaces. It's really refreshing to see brands like raaw start to put properly sized bearings behind decent seals in the pivots.
Widespread longer chainstays for larger sizes. Pretty pleeease as a 6ft2 rider.
An increase in frames that you can officially long or short shock to change the travel. See the new transition scout or raaw Madonna.
Threaded BB's. Mainly because the bike industry are largely incapable of maintaining press fit tolerances.
Improved bike fits. Improved use of technology to really tailor in bike fits.
Threaded BB’s. Mainly because the bike industry are largely incapable of maintaining press fit tolerances.
I really don't get this. BMX have been press fit for at a guess 15 year or more. Is it just less pedaling forces or because it's steel frames? The crank get a battering so I would expect still some BB problems but they are rock solid in general.
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working
Until a teeny bit of grit gets stuck in it then it doesn't.
2nd hand bikes will be the next big thing
We won’t see it on here but there is definitely a move to people wanting cheap bikes ie recycled. I was just getting started on a project with my lbs when the s**t hit the fan. The shop in question has been swamped with requests for cheap 2nd hand bikes and a few that we were going to renovate have been sold.
Need to look at the bigger picture👋😎✊🏻
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working.
And they have the benefit of improving chainline at the extremes.
My MTB was very noisy in bottom gear until I shifted the chainline with 4mm spacers. My brand new GRX 810 groupset is similarly noisy in bottom gear. Not the end of the world, but I wouldn't want to spin up an Alp on my road bike listening to that. Moving to 12 speed (and more) is only going to make this worse as the narrower spacing forces chainline further out to avoid catching on the next sprocket in higher gears.
I think more customisation from the factory - like Bird and Orbea have done - is likely.
It would be really exciting to see more custom geometry and sizing.
Marino has made an increasing impact, it would be great to see Pole also offer this. The ability to specify a beefier tube-set say.
Not sure it’s really worth the development effort of trickling electronic down to cheaper bikes for anyone.
Actually, I would have thought that the lower end of the market would really go for it, at the right price. To someone just getting into cycling, gears that don't need adjusting and maintaining could be really appealing. And with e-bikes, you're already lugging a battery around so it doesn't even have to be another thing to charge. I'm a bit surprised that the price hasn't dropped more already.
Personally, I have no interest in them, but that's an odd idea about enjoying cycling as a purely human-powered endeavour, and also enjoying the impressively intricate engineering in modern shifters.
Agreed. Modern bikes are a bit like Clock punk. Rather not go electronic. Hydraulic shifting would be good.
Problem is front derailleurs cause almost no problems once set up they just keep working.
Dropped chains on both road (well cx) and mtb is the thing that finally convinced me 1x was the way to go, and I'm a late adopter of most things. 1x range is now adequate enough there's no going back, this is widely adopted already, isn't it future trends we are predicting?
Metrics is another growth area I think, monitor tyre pressure, bump absorption, g force, crank force, steering input etc. This is already been done at high level we'll see it trickle down more.
Personally, I have no interest in them, but that’s an odd idea about enjoying cycling as a purely human-powered endeavour, and also enjoying the impressively intricate engineering in modern shifters.
Oddly I'm the complete opposite. hate ebikes for offroad/leisure, but I'd welcome electric shifting, along with anything that simplifies or integrates the operation of seatpost and suspension adjustments. Just pedal and ride (and no maintainence/adjustment/faffing) would be the ideal for me.
I really don’t get this. BMX have been press fit for at a guess 15 year or more. Is it just less pedaling forces or because it’s steel frames? The crank get a battering so I would expect still some BB problems but they are rock solid in general.
It's less of an issue due to much less pedalling in BMX. It's also easier in theory to get the tolerances right on a steel or alloy frame than a carbon one.
Complaints about press fit creaking or going through bearings rapidly is almost always due to alignment issues. As well as lateral misalignment between the cups, they can also be undersized and compress the bearings causing rapid wear as well. It's part of the reason why Shimano BB cups are polymer as that can accommodate some misalignment by deforming when being pressed it, but it is still not ideal.
hate ebikes for offroad/leisure
That's bizarre. I see no appeal in fatbikes, gravel or time trial bikes, but hate them? eh, naw.
Integrated storage as in the Specialized Swat Box?
I personally can't see past lighter ebikes with smaller batteries becoming the norm.
I'll try again for simplified suspension setup
Dealer takes some data from customer and hand over a bike with the suspension set up correctly. It might be that your given a box you take on a couple of rides. Data from the box is used to finish the process.
I bet loads of high end bikes are trundling round trail centres with basic set up errors. Quite possibly mine as well
Shimano’s argument for Microspline is that you can’t make a cheap cassette for an XD driver and you can’t make a 10 tooth sprocket fit onto a normal freehub.
I think we need a new discipline or a change of existing one to drive development. Trail centre grand-prix's! Blur the lines of xc and enduro. queue a range of lighter trail bikes that can do 20 laps of cannock and still smash a black run.
Dealer takes some data from customer and hand over a bike with the suspension set up correctly. It might be that your given a box you take on a couple of rides. Data from the box is used to finish the process.
Bike dealerships with good service depts would love OEMs for that, and more integrated electronics similar to Shimano and Bosch line-in apps. Like cars that have engines that you have no hope of working on yourself.
I’d welcome electric shifting, along with anything that simplifies or integrates the operation of seatpost and suspension adjustments. Just pedal and ride (and no maintainence/adjustment/faffing) would be the ideal for me.
That's the marketeer's dream but the reality of more complex systems / integration won't often be like that, your bike will just be in and out of the dealership more often (or you fit new parts that cost more, etc).
Zen and the Art of Bicycle Maintenance + Ownership.
I think we need a new discipline or a change of existing one to drive development. Trail centre grand-prix’s! Blur the lines of xc and enduro. queue a range of lighter trail bikes that can do 20 laps of cannock and still smash a black run.
Gravelcross.
Like a pentathlon/heptathlon, multiple events with points for each. But with gravel bikes.
First event, the bikepacking load up. First to strap the 14 bags and 12 water bottles needed for bikepacking to a gravel bike, clip in and ride 2 metres.
Then, hurdles. 10 gates and stiles, 20m apart, first to be able to hurdle them and their (fully loaded) bike to the finish line
Then the unpack, bivvy and cook an army ration dehydrated meal race.
I'm sure there's more events in there somewhere...
2nd hand bikes will be the next big thing
This is so true. The lower-end is where all the interest is right now. Current situations would have customers seeing anything that needs regular dealer attention as a negative - no idea how long we'll be in this situation for but many who are developing self-sufficiency habits at the moment will continue that way. It'll be influential and ties in with general anti-consumption and low impact ideas.
Could leasing be a thing?
I can't see how they'd do the 'reasonable wear and tear' when returning your 3 year old santa cruz hekler, with scratches all over the frame, and dented rims.
Actually, I would have thought that the lower end of the market would really go for it, at the right price. To someone just getting into cycling, gears that don’t need adjusting and maintaining could be really appealing. And with e-bikes, you’re already lugging a battery around so it doesn’t even have to be another thing to charge. I’m a bit surprised that the price hasn’t dropped more already.
There was a thread yesterday where someones AXS had crashed and the firmware wouldn't update.
It's been 10 years since I was out on a ride and someone actually snapped a gear cable. Seems like almost every ride now someone has some niggling issue with Di2/e-tap ranging from "it's a bit noisy I just need to check the manual when I get back about how to re-index it" to "no idea, I'm stuck in singlespeed mode".
Also, Di2 currently has a ~£100 premium just for the mech. I've been riding off road for two decades and baulk at £40 rear mechs, I can't see £140 mech's ever becoming mainstream.
Could leasing be a thing?
I can’t see how they’d do the ‘reasonable wear and tear’ when returning your 3 year old santa cruz hekler, with scratches all over the frame, and dented rims.
Is Bikes****y still a thing?
I'm sure it could work: "Shop" buys bike at trade price, leases it to you for 2 years and covers the trade price so making an absolute loss is unlikely. Chuck's a new set of bearings in it, chain and cassette etc and sells it on again. Probably recoups half the new price as profit?
I tend to buy bikes then run them for a long time and sell them cheaply (or buy 2nd hand and try to minimise my losses), but there's also a market of people who'll buy an S-works for ~£8500 and sell it in 12 months to fund a new one in this years colors and drive chain.
I tend to buy bikes then run them for a long time and sell them cheaply (or buy 2nd hand and try to minimise my losses), but there’s also a market of people who’ll buy an S-works for ~£8500 and sell it in 12 months to fund a new one in this years colors and drive chain.
I could see a massive market for this, get a top of the range AXS megatower with carbon everything, for £1000 down and £200 a month for 2 years, then at the end, give it back and get a brand new one.
Incoming: chainrings with a freehub that prevent pedal kickback.
Already starting to appear...