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Every now and then I read about a new gearbox type drivetrain bike that will make derailleurs redundant but then not much changes.
Is there any chance of an affordable gearbox type bike in the near future?
Has the popularity of 1x given the rear derailleur another lease of life?
Will ebikes help push on gearbox development and reduce prices?
With rear cassettes getting ever bigger are they now getting close to the weight of unfashionable hub gears?
1x works pretty much as good as it needs to and compared to a gearbox it weighs nothing. What's to be gained with a gearbox? I never understood them.
Over the last few months of lovely dry weather I have to admit I have found that my multi geared derailleur bikes have been performing well. However I live in the UK and having a drivetrain out in the open isn't an ideal design feature.
Like linkage forks...nobody wants to deviate from what they know. New tech always costs more initially and takes time to develop and get right. Any product is a balance of various attributes...weight, strength, stiffness, size, cost, ease of manufacturing, ease of production and so many more attributes. It's hard to get that blend of attributes right to hit the sweet spot for a product that the market will accept...just look how long it took current day suspension forks to get to where it is today. But people don't want to pay the premium up front. So the barriers to entry into the market are very high and very hard to overcome.
I really like the look of the pinion box and would have one in principle but they've never put on in a bike I want. If something like the pinion box took off and sold in big numbers the price could easily be brought down to something more affordable and appealing and the technical problems it has (can't change gear under load and mechanical drag) could easily be overcome with a bit more R&D.
Has the popularity of 1x given the rear derailleur another lease of life?
Possibly but not in the way you might think. Going 1x on mountain and gravel bikes means frames can be made to take advantage of not having to accommodate a front mech so larger and stiffer BB's, relocation of shocks into the BB area for better rear suspension kinematics and wider clearance on gravel bikes to accommodate larger tyres. So not necessarily an improvement in the process of changing gear, but benefits in better overall bikes.
1x works pretty much as good as it needs to and compared to a gearbox it weighs nothing. What’s to be gained with a gearbox? I never understood them.
Do they though? A chain drive transmission is a good blend of simplicity, weight, but they don't work too well...you're limited on range, if you want a broader range of gearing then you have to compromise by either having bigger steps between gears or having more gearing in the front, and modify frames and wheels to accommodate more and more cogs and weight that compromises suspension performance and wheel stiffness and strength. They're far from 100% reliable...chains break, mech hangars break, they're susceptible to damage and other external factors, they wear out, the performance drifts as components wear and if the system becomes contaminated, for example with thick mud. All the components are effectively wear out consumable components so constant ongoing maintenance costs...which gets expensive if you go electronic on an MTB. All these things you might be used to and experienced with and know how to handle them and as such don't really recognise them as problems. But they are.
If you could get a decent gearbox solution perfected it would be light enough, maintenance free, ultra reliable, wouldn't wear out, fit and forget with no ongoing adjustments, robust and damage tolerant, wont cause design compromises in frame and wheels leading to an overall better performing bike. As zee germans say...vorsprung durch technic.
Could a derailleur and cassette in a box like the good old Honda downhill bike be a workable solution? I've always been intrigued by the Maynard bike too but suspect with both the Honda and Maynard that they don't need a lot gears as they're downhill bikes.
I was hoping that maybe the CVT bikes might have been a possibility and still might be for ebikes but I believe they're quite expensive.
Wasn't there an older version of the RN01 running a CVT? Not the WC one but one of the domestic machines.
Maynard
Millyard? That was/is a frame mounted hub gear, same as early Zerodes/GT iT-1.
The reason for no cheap gearboxes is that nobody bought enough expensive ones to show the big boys that it was worth doing.
Tomhoward
Yes exactly that, 1: they’re expensive, so very few people can afford them.
This means that 2:very few people buy them.
Which, in turn, means that 3:there’s no incentive to take them to a mass market.
However good they are (or, are not) 4:if nobody is buying them, they will remain expensive, see point 1.
It’s actually irrelevant how good they are.
There is zero incentive to make a product that doesn’t wear out, companies who do that go bankrupt.
It’s not just cost though, they just weren’t marketed well enough. A Deviate Guide, Carbon frame only with pinion gearbox, is in a comparable price category to premium brand carbon frames, without transmission, that sell shitloads.
The bike buying public are just very conservative, and won’t actually try new things. Back to Deviate, they sold more (none GB) Highlanders in a month than they sold (GB equipped) Guides in a year. Despite comments sections everywhere saying how the future is gearboxes.
I must admit that I'm not an early adopter to new stuff, I just want stuff that works and I don't need to remortgage the house to buy.
I think the real obstacle to gearbox bikes (as already mentioned) is that they would never need to be replaced so do not generate additional maintenance revenue.
Just sad really.
Is there any chance of an affordable gearbox type bike in the near future?
No. They will always be more expensive to manufacture than derailleur systems. There are plenty of affordable shopping bikes with 3-speed gearhubs, but a system with 10 or 12 gears will be much more complex and expensive.
I’d love a gearbox bike.
When it was actually time to buy a new frame the cost and weight put me off.
I guess it’s chicken and the egg. To expensive so it doesn’t get refined.
I wonder if you could fit a 3 speed gearbox in a T47 BB shell.
Yes exactly that, 1: they’re expensive, so very few people can afford them.
This means that 2:very few people buy them.
Which, in turn, means that 3:there’s no incentive to take them to a mass market.
However good they are (or, are not) 4:if nobody is buying them, they will remain expensive, see point 1.
It’s actually irrelevant how good they are.
There is zero incentive to make a product that doesn’t wear out, companies who do that go bankrupt.
Also, frames have to be specifically designed for a single brand/model of gearbox, whereas a normal bike will be able to fit any of the 10's of rear mechs on the market.
A very limited market is also not a good thing for development and bringing down cost. Although... you could say the same of ebike. Difference being that they have massive benefits which are easy to see.
I think if Shimano or Sram make a gearbox, that'll be their chance at really taking off.
I'm actually considering a gearbox hardtail as my next build, essentially an 'ultimate' winter hardtail. belt drive, gearbox, titanium. No gears to get clogged with mud, no chain to wash after every ride, no paint to get scratched by the neverending coating of mud.
No. They will always be more expensive to manufacture than derailleur systems.
Seen the price of electronic drivetrains? On the basis they’re disposable items you could easily produce a gearbox for the cost of an electronic drivetrain if you could get the production numbers up. Easily.
Wonder if anyone has engineered (bodged) an alfine hub into the frame of a bike?
I'm seriously tempted to buy an electric gear one at this price and put it on my Stooge.
https://www.bikester.co.uk/shimano-alfine-di2-sg-s7051-hub-for-disc-brake-11s-silver-644096.html
Wonder if anyone has engineered (bodged) an alfine hub into the frame of a bike?
Zerode G1 springs to mind
Seen the price of electronic drivetrains?
They're at the Ferrari end of the spectrum. Hitting that price point would not be the "cheap gearbox bikes" that the OP is waiting for.
Wonder if anyone has engineered (bodged) an alfine hub into the frame of a bike?
I test ride a zerode taniwha and loved the bike but the backlash in the drive was what put me off. Still interested to see what happens with the Shimano mech and cassette in a box design.
If you could get a decent gearbox solution perfected it would be light enough, maintenance free, ultra reliable, wouldn’t wear out, fit and forget with no ongoing adjustments, robust and damage tolerant, wont cause design compromises in frame and wheels leading to an overall better performing bike. As zee germans say…vorsprung durch technic.
No it wouldn't. See your own comments on a derailleur equipped bike and consider which of those you remove by adding a gear box.
Hint: you'll still have a chain, a shifter, some method of communicating between the two,some sort of tensioning device on a fs at least, somewhere to hang that etc etc.
Despite comments sections everywhere saying how the future is gearboxes.
Never read below the line. If you believed the comments section was a reflection of what people would actually pay for you'd probably think the world survives on cappuccino and avocado on toast, artfully arranged to look prefect on insta and that no one at all eats plain rice or drinks water.
I’m actually considering a gearbox hardtail as my next build, essentially an ‘ultimate’ winter hardtail. belt drive, gearbox, titanium. No gears to get clogged with mud, no chain to wash after every ride, no paint to get scratched by the neverending coating of mud.
Interesting - until I read this I was going to comment that one of the barriers to creating a bottom bracket mounted gear box bike is that its only applicable/beneficial to a full suss "proper" MTB, so there is no potential for sharing the R&D costs in the anticipation of selling a million trickled down hybrids and BSOs in 10 years time.
Could a maintentence free bike may be a good sell to the casual cyclist? Or would they be fine with a belt drive and hub gearbox?
I'm no fan of derailleurs mainly because I have an aversion to dangling an exquisite highly evolved piece of machinery in the dirt and crap.
Enclosure and impact protection would solve those problems, but I don't think that's a solution that would sell in a fashion driven market. Chaincases have always been a turn off for most cyclists.
A hub gear can be made lighter than a mid mounted gearbox because it doesn't have to cope with the levels of torque generated at the crank. The torque is effectively reduced by ½ to ⅔ by the primary gear ratio (chaninring/rear cog). The problem with hub gears is once they go past 3 speeds, they get heavy and the weight is located at the back of the bike which doesn't "feel" right to people not used to that.
One answer may be a modern equivalent of the Cambiogear which has a 16 speed front chainring. All the action is at the front, there is only one cog at the rear.
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It uses a dangling chain tensioner, but chain tensioning could be easily be tucked away under the chain stay behind the BB instead.
(I have a brand-new one in its box, so if anyone wants more detail, I can provide more photos than those on I've put on Flickr)
Interesting – until I read this I was going to comment that one of the barriers to creating a bottom bracket mounted gear box bike is that its only applicable/beneficial to a full suss “proper” MTB, so there is no potential for sharing the R&D costs in the anticipation of selling a million trickled down hybrids and BSOs in 10 years time.
Could a maintentence free bike may be a good sell to the casual cyclist? Or would they be fine with a belt drive and hub gearbox?
I believe there's a few bikepacking/adventure bikes (and commuter bikes) out there with pinion gearboxes, mainly due to the zero (ok, barely anything) maintenance required, and belts that last thousands of miles.
eg https://www.probikeshop.com/en/gb/ortler-perigor-touring-bike-diamant-black/165109.html
The problem is, there are cheaper hub gearboxes (alfine etc) that do the job at a much lower price. And the average commuter probably doesn't need the full gearbox experience, a basic hub gear is enough!
30,000km on a single belt isn't unheard of, and they require no lubing, just a squirt of water every few hundred km in dusty conditions when it starts to squeak.
Obviously FS bikes get other benefits like lower unsprung weight, but there's a lot going for a gearbox hardtail. Hardtails also get benefits like no tensioner (on a frame with sliding dropouts) but to fit a belt drive they need a split seatstay.
30,000km on a single belt isn’t unheard of, and they require no lubing, just a squirt of water every few hundred km in dusty conditions when it starts to squeak.
I’m not convinced, it must vary greatly depending on specific conditions. My own belt drive, Gates CDX on a Nicolai Ion GPI, has done a little under 2000miles and the front ring is pretty worn. A little water will subdue the irritating noise of a dry belt for about five minutes the real solution is a silicone lubricant which lasts far longer. I’m of the opinion a chain dipped in Putoline four times a year would be lasting just as well while costing far less.
Yeah understand the wear is normally on the 'chainrings' rather than the belt.
It's got to be more than a 12sp chain running through 6 months and a few hundred miles of winter grit though, surely?
There was an interview with Nicolai on Pinkbike a few weeks back where he indicated that they would have some developments on a gearbox bike this year which narrows the gap between mech and gearbox from a weight and performance perspective. Looking forward to what they release, I hate rear mechs for a number of reasons.
It’s got to be more than a 12sp chain
You can only compare a belt to running a chain singlespeed/gearbox not derailleur gears. And in that situation the chains last longer with wear not mattering So much.
Edit: I mean a single speed chain lasts longer than a chain used on derailleur gears, not longer than a belt. The belt just costs significantly more
True, but someone looking at a gearbox is going to be looking at it as an upgrade from a derailleur system. In that case, it's a huge improvement in lifespan.
I had thought about singlespeed for the winter hardtail but I honestly don't think my legs would let me do it!
Very expensive but would rather this than a pro level plastic frame. Plus I'm getting my high-end gears with the frame.
https://wittson.com/titanium-bicycle-gallery
https://nordestcycles.com/en/product/lacrau-2-ti-frame
2988 euros for frame, gearbox, cranks, shifter, belt drive kit, and a pinion h2r hub thrown in.
Just looking at prices on pinion's website and they're a bit lower than I had thought.
If they could sell a significant number of them then I'd hope the price would come down.
Maybe they're close than I realised.
https://www.bikester.co.uk/ortler-perigor-pinion-12-speed-magic-black-matt-1113998.html
If they could sell a significant number of them then I’d hope the price would come down.
To make a cheap gearbox bike, you'd need to get the price down to the level of a Deore groupset. Economies of scale are not going to do that because gearboxes have lots of moving parts that require precision machining.
2988 euros for frame, gearbox, cranks, shifter, belt drive kit, and a pinion h2r hub thrown in
It’s a pretty good price isn’t it and worth trying the belt for yourself. It may last better for you and at the very worst you can just stick a chain on in the future
1x works pretty much as good as it needs to and compared to a gearbox it weighs nothing. What’s to be gained with a gearbox? I never understood them.
At GX/XT level it's 450g cassette + 300g dereilieur + excess chain. That's a whole lot of un-sprung weight right out the back of the bike. The biggest thing I notice on the single speed (other than having to stand up to get up hills) is how much the back end just chatters through rough stuff, just skipping through without getting caught. OK a Pinion is more like 2400g, but at least that weight is centralized. I'd take a kilo extra on a trail bike if there was comparable efficiency.
To make a cheap gearbox bike, you’d need to get the price down to the level of a Deore groupset. Economies of scale are not going to do that because gearboxes have lots of moving parts that require precision machining.
Presumably they'd be looking at an XT level first then trickle down. They didn't make Deore Di2, or tiagra hydraulic brakes first.
Nice pinion video here.
Lovely trails too, would love to do the tour they do.
I think I'm going to start saving up as my next mountain bike will very likely have a pinion 12 speed gear box on it.
Love this video showing the shifting
The problem with them (as things stand today) is the low volumes of production mean they're relatively pricey, the frames need different mounting features, so yet more cost, then there's no major weight savings to be had (yes the weight there is is at the BB), are they really user serviceable?
And then you realise that Derailleurs aren't actually all that bad, easy to find at various price points, easy to replace/service for muggles, the vast majority of frames already have the necessary interfaces sorted. Just how many mechs have you smashed on a rock?
Honestly the hype train for Gearboxes has taken so long to drum up such limited uptake, I struggle to imagine them ever displacing the good old Mech...
They're still just too niche when the main market (Rad^Gnarr MTBerists) flip their bikes every couple of years because the wheels are the 'wrong' flavour or the hubs are the wrong 'width', can you honestly see the majority of them sinking thousands into a Drivetrain/frame that will probably have an unfashionable head angle in six months...
An alfine is a planetary gearbox it costs £300?
Nicolai been at it 20 years ? its not mainstream but a very HALO project that gets some recognition.
Honda hid the lot in a box which made sense.
Tbh I don't think they'll ever be 'cheap' but it would be nice if they were a bit more mainstream.
A bit more choice of bikes with a gearbox probably wouldn't hurt the prices either.
Gearbox equipped bikes aren't necessarily more reliable than derailleur equipped bikes . I sent a rohloff hub back to Germany twice in 18months with play in the bearings . It was fixed foc and even came back with a letter of apology but that's not my idea of bombproof . It was also heavy ,draggy , noisy and prone to rear punctures which I assume was caused by the extra weight of the rear wheel . If I was doing a big tour on a derailleur equipped bike I would be confident that with a few spares I could fix most things that could go wrong . If a gearbox bike has an internal failure you would be lucky to get it fixed even at a bike shop .
My rear mechs generally get very sloppy rather than get broken on rocks then my shifting is just crap so they get replaced. Not to mention all the chains, cassettes, jockey wheels and chainrings I go through. I reckon the price of the gear box becomes close to cost neutral when you add the initial cost of derailleur drivetrains and replacing parts over the course of it's life.
If you only use your bike for a couple of hours a week and generally only in decent weather then internal gears will seem like a solution to a problem that doesn't exist. Even more so if you change bikes every year or two.
If however you tend to keep your bikes for 5+ years and ride your bike 20+ hours a week no matter what the weather is like, then internal gears suddenly seem like the sensible choice.
I have a singlespeed mountain bike for crap weather but as I'm getting older I don't think my knees will cope as well with the strain of grinding up the hills.
When I ride my derailleur geared bike in the mud I can almost hear the drivetrain wearing away not to mention the hassle of cleaning and lubing it after each ride. In the winter it's actually too cold to even clean my bike when I get home.
So it's either a hub gear or gearbox and I'd rather the weight to be more central so gearbox it is.
Just did some sums based on RRP (I know you can get Shimano stuff cheaper than RRP but just humour me).
XT drivetrain vs Pinion drivetrain (both 12 speed)
I included all drivetrain components for each system includes chains or belts, chainrings, crank arms etc etc
I then added in what spares I think I'd get through over a 5 year period based on this being my only bike and riding it around 15-20 hours a week (so quite a lot of use). With all the mechanical works carried out by me so no cost there.
The price between the 2 systems is less than £100. Surprised me. Especially if you don't do your own spannering as the cost could swing to the pinion gearbox as the cheaper one if you used a bike shop to maintain your bike.
Yeah, so comparing the Nordest Lacrau 2 ti frame with the belt drive kit, and the Nordest Bardino frame (they're idenctical, the Lacrau is the bardino with a gearbox), with an XT groupset and Hope pro 4 hub, at wiggle prices it comes out at £1845 initial cost vs the £2715 initial cost of the gearbox option, and 6.27kg vs 4.05kg.
£870 more
2.2kg heavier.
A cassette and chain are £130, so a couple of those and you're down to £600 difference.
You think you'd only go through 2 cassettes and 2 chains in 5 years using your bike for 15-20 hours a week? You must ride in a much dryer place than I do.
When I only had the one bike I would go through 1 cassette, 1 chainring, 2 chains and a set of jockey wheels a year. Could be even more. A rear mech would only last a couple of years as well.
I reckon I'd only go through a 1 belt, 1 chainring and 1 rear sprocket every 18 months on the Pinion gearbox (this is not based on my own experience but looking at the reviews I read of the Pinion). So over 5 years (which is the general time I keep a bike for) the costs are comparable.
No that wasn't for 5 years use, just for initial cost and then maybe a years or so's worth of use.
Interesting
That Shimano system looks the most likely to be successful. It looks fixable by a bike mechanic.
Especially if they used a smaller pitch chain to get the dimensions/weight down.
One thing I wonder about is the the number of ratios. I find I often change 2 ratios at once when I'm on an Alfine or Rohloff, so I'd probably be just as happy with a wider spread between the gears, i.e. for the same overall spread of gearing I could get by with less intermediate cogs.
One problem with the video analysis is that he's assuming Shimano will use standard pitch chains. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't use a smaller pitch chain. For example, long ago, they tried using 3/8" pitch chains, but never took off. The weight of a 3/8" pitch sprocket with the same number of teeth would be 56% (9/16) that of a 1/2" sprocket. For a proprietary gearbox, compatibility with existing drivetrains would be irrelevant and sprocket sizes wouldn't be limited by rear hub compatibility, so I would expect they would use whatever chain pitch turned out to be optimal for the specific application. Chain deflection shouldn't be an issue because one cassette moves to keep a straight chainline.
I also don't find the speculated drivetrain efficiency convincing. I think it's unlikely that an enclosed chain drive with oil lubrication would lose much efficiency against a regular derailler, and I do not see how it would be less efficient than a gearbox with gear teeth that have to slide over each other.