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Morning morning, everyone well? So, today's the day then, will G crack? Will Froome or Dumoulin attack? Let's have a look what's in store.
Route: a start in Lourdes, the town you visit once to prove that you won’t return again. To explain, Lourdes thrives from religious pilgrimages but it’s not the sacred that’s off-putting, it’s the profane as shops compete to sell a gaudy mix of Christian memorabilia – how about an 80cm tall plastic Jesus with a lamp inside? – and this removes some of the charm of an otherwise well-located place next to the Pyrenees. It’s 30km to Bagnères-de-Bigorre and all on lumpy roads including the climb at Loucrup and then onto the first mountain pass of the day.
The Col d’Aspin is climbed via the harder side and 12km at 6.5% but with solid sections of 8% on the upper two thirds before easing a the top.
A quick descent and it’s straight onto the Tourmalet, 17km at 7.3% and one of the most famous climbs of the Tour and once past the introductory 5km the slope is often 9-10% to the top but all on a large road. The descent comes in two parts, first the drop down the mountain pass to Luz, then the valley section downhill to Argelès-Gazost.
New for 2018 is the Col des Bordères, a back road and harder than the roadbook says. It climbs straight out of Argelès-Gazost with a 7.5% slope for the best part of three kilometres and then a short descent to the start of the profile above, it’s an irregular climb of 8km to the top and all on a narrow rural road. Then a quick descent on a narrow road lined by drystone walls to Arrens. The Col du Soulor is next, a major climb in its own right but here it’s part of the Col d’Aubisque. Still it’s 7.5km at 8.1% and then the balcony road over the Col d’Aubisque whose last three kilometres are 7%.
The Finish: it’s a long, fast descent down the Aubisque, 20km and including several fast, technical sections. The road had been washed away by floods in June but has been rebuilt just in time for today’s stage. The descent ends with three kilometres to go. There’s a right hand bend after the flamme rouge which is wide and then it’s over a bridge before a left hand bend with 500m to go which is much tighter and clear run to the finish.
And the passes
All very up and down then.
So who's in the mix?
The Contenders: a good day for a breakaway, expect plenty of action early on as a third of the peloton knows this is there last chance for a stage win. Julian Alaphilippe (Quick Step) has almost secured the mountains jersey. He’s had two mountain stage wins so far but note they’ve been on shorter climbs, today could be out of reach. Still as we know if he’s dropped on the Aubisque he can always come back on the descent. Polka-dot rival Warren Barguil (Fortuneo-Samsic) is not chasing the jersey any more, it’s all about the stage win and he’s been sitting up to save himself for today but if he has a chance so do several others, there’s a crowded field with Rafał Majka (Bora-Hansgrohe), Mikel Nieve and Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott). Thomas de Gendt (Lotto-Soudal) has tried but not looked convincing, he could barge away but there are so many other climbers. Like Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), the Izaguirre brothers and Domenico Pozzovivo (Bahrain-Merida).
Among the GC contenders Steven Kruijswijk (Lotto-Jumbo) managed a big raid in the Alps, he could try for the same this time and the final climbs make for a less linear effort to real him in. Primož Roglič can try to shake the tree as well but he can’t go for such a long raid and his sprint isn’t so good so maybe the stage win isn’t so easy?
Nairo Quintana (Movistar) crashed yesterday but as we saw two days ago he comes into form for the third week of the Tour and high altitude suits him too. Does he save it late for the Bordères-Soulor-Aubisque or do Movistar go big and try a move on the Tourmalet? Probably not, Alejandro Valverde can go for a swansong and the descent and flat finish is ideal for him.
Romain Bardet‘s entourage said he had a crise d’hypoglycémie on the Col du Portet, he bonked in plain English. If so then it was a nutritional hiccup but if you crack like this you tend to implode and lose a lot of time, he limited his losses. If you crack like this you can often rebound soon after so if he did then he’s in with a good chance today and has room to go clear now.
Will Chris Froome (Team Sky) go wild and launch a long range move like the Giro? The course suits but it’s not a regular thing, but maybe he’s more suited to a long grind today even if he cracked in the intense stage two days ago.More realistically team mate Geraint Thomas has a good chance, to mark his rivals and then use his jump in the flat finish.
Lastly Dan Martin (UAE-Emirates) is a good choice, able to jump away on the climbs and not a direct threat on GC. If Quintana out-climbed him he packs a decent sprint from a small group.
And as ever, a look back at what was a pretty nondescript day yesterday.
The break.
Go, looking good in yellow.
The winner
It's gunna be fireworks
Good work as always lunge, love reading these with the first brew of the day.
I'm hoping that G stays in yellow with a nice chunk of time over the rest today, which I think he will and that Bardet wins the stage with an attack on the final climb and then descending like a man possessed to the finish. Won't happen but it'd be nice to see.
Roglic i think for me, really got something to prove to fight for a podium place and probably remembering that Froome was starting to go backwards a bit on the last mountain stage?
I really worry for G today. In the past its the very high mountains that have been his downfall, and being so late in the tour is a real concern. I hope he can pull it off, and he has a pretty good domestique on his side so lets see.
Cool étape bro’
Could this be the hardest stage, like eva?? And in such tight GC circumstances too??
The Torm will be brutal, the Asp the hardest becuse it’s at the end and everyone in knackered.. even me.
I can’t steer away from two picks, I have to hedge someone soooo.. Ala, the grace that this guys shown is truly refreshing. QS maybe short on support now, loosing PhilGil as road captain will be a loss, so Ala will have to do this alone.
Annnd my second pick is Mr Fromage himself. I don’t think for one minute the guy has given up. Nope, not in the slightest. I reckon deep down he’s quite angry at a lot of things, this could be the foil to which he swathes himself forward or self flagellates.
I’ve given up on Barguil, there’s more to his current situation than he shows on the road, so thanks for some animated stages but go play with the blokes in white..
Could be a total outside bet but Nieve, he’s been in/out of some breaks and I’d like to see an ex Euskatel rider claim the Pyrenees... take back control .. one might say.
Either way I hope Sagan wheelies up the Asp, I’d really like to see some antics to mitigate the attacks.
Good day to WFH eh!! 🌈☄️☀️
final climb of the day / tour around 1530-1630 UK time...... I'm scheduling a 'meeting' for then, so i won't be disturbed.
Roglic will need to try something. Not sure what or when but being 4th I suspect he will want to some type of all or nothing move?
Tom D to play last domestique for Thomas again today, chasing down a break by Roglic.
I rode borderes - solour - aubisque a couple of weeks ago. It is a lovely ride, especially the bit between solour and aubisque, but it is not hard enough for any end of stage GC action. Only thing of interest that might happen is a long range do or die from aspin or tourmalet. If not then it is going to be boring, nice scenery, and a pat on the back for Thomas the Bike from Froome.
edit:gratuitous bike leaning against a post shot:
Not sure who'll win this stage so I'm going to guess..Thomas the Bike. Fingers crossed.
Biiiig stage today, should be great viewing.
I was reading Guardian and they had this quote from GT
Thomas, though, admitted that his focus was on the final hours of mountain climbing. “Hopefully we won’t have to use Froomey,” the Welshman said of the defending champion, and his Sky teammate, Chris Froome, “and we will have strength in numbers but having him at my disposal is phenomenal.”
“Hopefully he won’t have to do much. It will be a big test, and one for the team to control but obviously the last climb will be down to the legs.”
I don't really understand that. With GT in yellow, why would he and the team not want to use Froome to help him win it? Surely it should be all hands to deck to do whatever is needed for GT to win. It wasn't that many years ago Wiggins was racing flat out (in yellow) in Paris to help lead out Cav for a sprint win. Why or how is this different?
Poor wee Romain Bardet - hopefully when the tour is over he can eat properly. Every time I see him on the TV I want to take him home and cook him a nice big healthy dinner, and I mean that literally. Like probably every middle aged woman in France.
Frank - I'd say he means use Froome to try and win the tour because he's just blown up rather than use Froome as a domestique to help him.
Bardet looks cooked from the inside out.
I follow him (and AG2r) on Insta and yesterday’s pic of him was ghostly, deep hollow black eyes, jersey open to reveal nothing more than lightly tanned silk draped over a corpse.
The rest of the team don’t look much better, but one pic in particular where he’s fist pumping Dillier after the stage has him looking like the sun is shining through his body...
I wish him well. 🔥
Annnd my second pick is Mr Fromage himself. I don’t think for one minute the guy has given up.
Yep I reckon he'll want to win a stage still and today could be the day, or he might knock it off early and save his legs for the TT whilst Roglic, Dumoulin and Thomas are still knocking lumps out of each other
Froome will mark Roglic all day, G will sit on Tom’a wheel. Bernal will be phenomenal in pacing all of them up the final climb. A longer version of Wednesday really. No change in GC positions at the end.
Allaphilippe will be long gone and my pick again for the win. If it had been a mountain top finish, today I’d have said Bernal as a reward, but it is not.
Froome for a longshot attack whilst going up Col des Borderes. Done as a bit of an up-yours to the spectators.
Unlikely, but it'd make good watching.
Froome to ride up wearing boxing gloves, and trying to take spectators and the French police boxing like an anorexic kangeroo?
I imagine Froome is now under strict orders, much to his displeasure. He's very polite, but I don't think he feels like he's done, and he very much wants to go on the attack.
Far too much to lose at this point, because even a small attack will put Thomas under pressure from Dumoulin.
Sky aren't sentimental so Bernal won't get a stage win this year unless everyone else has cracked apart from G and Froomey. It would be a nice reward for his efforts, they'll give him a smaller stage race or two next year to lead.
Froome may be given the go-ahead to win to get the bonus seconds over Roglich and to close the gap on TD
G will stick to TD like s**t on the end of a stick today, but they'll alos keep an eye on Qunitana. He's 3 mins back now, he'd most likely need 5 mins with the TT tomorrow but they won't let him off the leash again.
Expect chess on wheels today
IMO Froome's too realistic, he knows he's cooked and GT has had the beating of all of them all tour so far. Two successive mountain top wins for the yellow jersey is phenomenal, if someone like Nibali or Bardet had done that it would have been the talk of the tour and everyone would be bowing down in awe. Froome's got a lot of favours to pay back after the last few years too. He's always seemed very genuine when he talks of it being a team event.
In his interview the other day he stated quite clearly he didn't feel cooked at all... I think he is quite genuine, and he'll be quite willing to repay the favours to Thomas. But deep inside...
I wish it was a summit finish, dont think you get the same drama on a descent to the finish.
Thomas seemed to be implying yesterday wasn't the easy stage most were suggesting s hope he's got enough in the tank.
Thoughts on how much TD or CF will take back off him on the TT?
Dylan must have been to Lourdes when he wrote:
Disillusioned words like bullets bark
As human gods aim for their mark
Made everything from toy guns that spark
To flesh-colored Christs that glow in the dark
It's easy to see without looking too far
That not much is really sacred
went there a few years ago following Le tour, weird place. we rode the Tourmalet too - damn that's a tough climb...
Come on G
I had a theory earlier on during the tour that Sky had a plan to have G as the leader to avoid Froomy/Sky taking too much flak on the road and then Froome would be a stalking horse and come along at the last minute and jump into yellow on the penultimate day.
Stage 17 would suggest that is no longer possible due to Froome's form but hey, he looked cooked a number of times during the Giro and look what happened there.
Someone also commented on the whales on Sky jerseys in stage 17 thread. I hadn't noticed until watching Eurosport and Carlton Kirby pointed this out during commentary about a week ago in one of his tortured phrases.
G was attacking and It was something along the lines of:
"Sky have killer whales on the back of their jerseys and Wales are making a killing right now"
You have to bear in mind that G was training with a view that Froome may not ride the Tour due to the Salbutamol case, he'll have always had in mind he could the leader. Said case will also have distracted Froome somewhat I'd suggest and that combined with the fatigue from the Giro means he was always unlikely to arrive in prime form.
Sky I suspect still backed Froome until probably Tuesday's stage as they know he's proven over 3 weeks.
Froome is one Tour win away from the Best, if he can win it he will do it, even if it upset Sky team .
Breaks gone, 6 in it.. Dillier ! Yates ! 4:23 back to Yellow.
I think Froome understands the team before self ethos better than most, having been both the giver and receiver of those benefits over the years.
I don't see him jeopardising a leader's chances for his own.
In fact I wonder if this was the plan all along..... set Froome up as leader as that was what was expected and let G have a bit of a blindside run at it. Whether you like them or not, they are tactically and strategically top of the pile, and when it comes to the science of effort and refuelling, I suspect they have a good idea that G has what it takes to go the distance this time.
I've still got money on TD just in case.
I cant believe all you Froome fan boys still think he has chance of winning this tour.......
Apropos of nothing, killer whales (orcas) are big dolphins and not true whales.
I cant believe all you Froome fan boys still think he has chance of winning this tour
Not so much whether we think he has a chance but whether Froome himself does and goes on the attack. I suspect he'll be kept in check unless GT shows signs of cracking in which case he might either be told to try and go or he might just go of his own accord.
Not so much whether we think he has a chance but whether Froome himself does and goes on the attack. I suspect he’ll be kept in check unless GT shows signs of cracking in which case he might either be told to try and go or he might just go of his own accord.
Nonsense, at this point Froomes personal feelings on his chances are irrelevant. Its too late in the day to take such a huge risk. Brailsford doesn't like risk, he will have a plan and stick to it. POint in case is Froome being told to get back in his box when he attacked Wiggo. Doesn't matter who is strongest on the road, the plan comes first.
I disagree. If it was for his first Tour win maybe, but having the chance to join the likes of Merckx, Hinault and Indurain, he has to give it a go, if he can physically. Sky won't sack him.
Maybe they wont sack him, but if his actions meant that Sky lost the Tour it would end his career I reckon.
🎵 Wales and dolphins, Wales and dolphins 🎵
Sagan dropped. What sort of time gap will he need to maintain by the finish to avoid the cut?
Sagan dropped. What sort of time gap will he need to maintain by the finish to avoid the cut?
I don't think he will make it to the finish by the looks of him, no need to worry about times.
He looks cooked, totally destroyed.. I hope he lasts till the end 🤯
And Eurosport’s just gone off air 🤦♀️
Just watching them decending now reminds me I read somewhere last night that Dan Martin amongst others has called for the UCI to ban the super tuc position. Thoughts?
Boom, back on air 🕺
Dan Martin said that he felt it should be banned as he felt children and others would copy it, but how could you ban that as dangerous, but allow 90% of freestyle MTB videos still to be shown to them, as much as it is a dangerous position, could you ban one without the other?
Looking at the schedule, the middle speed is 36kph, ~5 hours 35 mins, that suggests 13-14%, so about 45 minutes, looking doubtful for Sagan, a real shame 🙁
That could leave green being decided on the Champs?
Indeed, Kristoff and Demare fighting it out, potentially Degenkolb - how many points for a win?
Looks like their all in a sprinters group at the back. Safety (from the time cut off) in numbers?
Sagan is with Demare , 11 minutes back .
Imagine if all the sprinters miss time cut today in Grupetto? There'll be no-one over 50kg left in the race
Worth sticking £10 on Froome to win the Paris Sprint?!!
I'd love Yates to do something today, but he's in strong company at the moment. The last climb will be interesting for GC, but expect G to survive OK.
Really hope Sagan can make it home. If he does I expect he'll be close to last on the ITT!
EDIT: as Yates falls away from the lead group! 🙂
Bardet hasn’t given up yet 👍☄️
Haven't seen Sagan on tv for about 1/2hr..
Wonder what he looks like 🗿😳
Haven’t seen Sagan on tv for about 1/2hr.
Just heard (on tv) that he is back in the grupetto but haven't seen him
@19’ at Tourmalet
it's getting EXCITING!
Pouls gone for Sky with 50km still to go, this might give them a challenge.
This is playing into Sky's hands. Lotto need to defend Roglic's position and hence need to chase Landa and to some degree, Bardet. The pace isn't electric as BMC and Merida are still in the reduced peloton. G and four other Sky riders are getting a free ride for now.
Ned just said Sagan is ok for now.
Was that Kwiato checking Facebook there? Maybe he got a text off Portal?
I'm gonna miss all these day time adverts, will the watchfinder guy every ride above a snails pace? will the sunlife neighbours move on from flirting over parsnips and sexy death insurance talk to an actual affair? will the guy with the knackered car ever afford to pay back his loan?
Landa trying to drop Bardet and Roglic away from the Sky group.
Nope, it's Kruijswijk not Roglic, he's got a minute.
Dumoulin up the road with G and Roglic, Froome is in trouble here.
you've got to love Dumoulin for taking the race to them really
loling at Jonnyboi, How will I afford my own funeral?!?!
Martin goes in what i suspect will be a futile attack.
Rojloc off with Tom and Geraint, Mr Cheese getting distanced by about 100mtrs..
Bloody hell, Cheesy is giving it loads and still being distanced... only 40’ to the Bardet Group....
commentators "there be no attacks" bang bang bang
Clive Cheese looks absolutely empty..
jesus, what a time to cut to ads
oh that road is narrow
G could get the stage at this rate!
Bernal, what a ride to help Froome!!
TD out desends G I think- no?
Bernal. Wow!
Wonder what the descent is like in this low cloud?
Bernal amazing.
Likewise those horses.
balls of solid steel on that descent
I can't watch this
froome round three riders at least heading down there