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And so to the Alps, let the fun begin.
The Tour de France is a romantic affair. Organizers and fans love to recall the good old days. Two kilometers before the finish of stage 17, riders will pass next to an arch that pays tribute to Bernard Thévenet's exploit at that precise location forty years ago. The temporary monument, on which yellow color is mixed with Peugeot-like black and white checked pattern, reminds that the Frenchman dethroned “the Cannibal” Eddy Merckx on 13 July 1975 to deprive him from winning his sixth Tour de France. That day also remained in the history books for the fall in the ravine of the Bianchi team car driven by sport director Giancarlo Ferretti. It happened in the downhill of col d'Allos, which is notably a tricky one. The exact same stage from Digne-les-Bains to Pra Loup was contested during the Critérium du Dauphiné last month. Romain Bardet attacked one kilometer before the col d'Allos and increased his lead in the downhill to win in Pra Loup.
The final ascent is only six kilometers long but it can be a nightmare in case of a hungerflat and it's almost impossible to put a hand in a pocket to take food in the downhill after passing the highest summit of this year's Tour de France. Chris Froome knows all the pitfalls of that stage for having ridden the Dauphiné. So does Vincenzo Nibali.
Too bad the Italian is already 7.49 down on GC. He could have been the Thévenet of 2015…
The profile:
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The contenders from Inrng:
The Contenders: Yes Romain Bardet won in the Dauphiné but a repeat is a big ask because everyone now knows that a breakaway can take time on the descent and manage their lead up the final climb so we’re likely to see more attacks over the top of the Col d’Allos and more before all in the hope of crossing the top of the pass with an advantage to be improved on the descent.There’s going to be a fight to get in the breakaway and it’ll be interesting to see how much Team Sky want to chase from the start because they can’t afford to use up riders early, whether early in today’s stage or just early in the Alpine phase of the race. Expect a list of “usual suspects” because those who’ve had the legs to attack in the past few days are those thriving in this race. We should see Rafa? Majka, Joaquim Rodriguez, Jacob Fuglsang and maybe Romain Bardet tempted by the King of the Mountains points on the Col d’Allos with the first two regular stage winners.
Alejandro Valverde is a safer pick given his experience, finishing sprint and because he’s going to be climbing with the front group. Even if Vincenzo Nibali isn’t at his best he’ll want to use the descent to get away but it’s a very obvious tactic and he could be marked, he’ll only have to stand on the pedals on the Col d’Allos for others to mimic him. If Team Sky control things then Chris Froome is a safe pick, as easy as the final climb relative to other ascents in the region it’s still selective; look at the Dauphiné where they came in one by one.
One outsider with room to attack is Thibaut Pinot and the forecast of late rain might suit him as he prefers cool and damp conditions, his descending woes are behind him but there’s talk of FDJ struggling with their tires in the wet.
And the most important thing to be found on the rest day:
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Your thoughts and predictions as ever are appreciated.
For me, this is all about attacking GC, Inrng has not mentioned him so I will, this to me is a Quintana stage, him and Valverde doing the old 1-2 on Froome with Nairo being the eventual victor. How much time he'll take is a different question all together.
Don't rule out TJ either, he's been climbing with the best all tour and he has to attack at some point, is now the day or will he save it for tomorrow?
I think we are now in the 2 biggest, most important days of the tour, stage 20 up Alpe D'Huez will be mental but I don't think it'll be critical, that will be a stage for a local hero. For me, if the tour is to be won, or lost, you have 2 days to do it.
Ohhh once again, great thread.
My predictions? It's all changing IMO. Today could be one blast attack after another... I'll have a think and get back 😀
Don't think we'll be getting any long range GC attacks or any big gaps at the end. Reckon we'll see someone chance a Bardet style attack to get a bit of time over the top of d'Allos then bomb the descent to have a gap for the Pra Loup climb. Maybe a face saving stage win for Nibali if he's got his head back in the game and allowed a bit of room.
Oh and Rodriguez up the road in a break to pick up the spotty jersey.
I'm tempted to go for Geraint being given the nod to go clear in the break away...
What's the weather forecast?
Warm and sunny. Could be a bit of a storm late afternoon.
I'm tempted to go for Geraint being given the nod to go clear in the break away...
Unless it somehow involves a plan to get Froome a bigger lead it won't happen!
Wonder if we'll see Sagan in the break again for the intermediate? He's put in some mighty performances so far, really liking the cut of his jib this year.
A potentially very exciting stage, I hope there's some attacking from GC contenders. The descent and shorter climb at the end really open it up, so can't see Froome gaining much time from an attack on the d'Allos. Think Sky will keep it solid and just cover attacks. Only certainty is that the autobus will have it's work cut out today!
Going to be difficult concentrating at work this afternoon/rest of the week..!
GT will only get the nod to go if the other meaningful GC contenders are blown or isolated and Froome is safe for the day.
The others will have to go for it on Col d'Allos, won't they? If that fails, could make the final climb an opportunity.
It's too steep for the Belgian boys but (once again) Kruj'sie could pull himself up as he did in the Giro.
If, if, if IF Pinot can sort his head out and take his anger out on the mountain he could pop off the front. Bardet and Bargil too.
A break then, Cigarboy out front for the spotty dress, Sag's for the first inter sprints then a sneeky fag behind the bus.
So I'm pegging one of those four 🙄
Bardet or Bargil, Pinot or Kruj'sie.
You can't say I'm not consistent with my predictions can you. 😛
two of those can't ride down a hill well.
Nibs or Valverde, will attack off the Allos, for slightly different reasons.
Attacks on the descent of Col d'Allos which will come to nothing. Sky to control the lower slopes of Pra Loup. Attacks will come from Valverde, Contador and Nibali will be shut down. Quintana to bide his time and attack later on the climb, Froome to go with him and the leave the other GC contenders behind and Froome will attack Quintana to take 30 seconds out of him at the finish. Sound familiar?
Don't rule out TJ either, he's been climbing with the best all tour and he has to attack at some point, is now the day or will he save it for tomorrow?
He's basically said he's playing a waiting game and will capitalise on mistakes from the others rather than a high-risk attack
He's basically said he's playing a waiting game and will capitalise on mistakes from the others rather than a high-risk attack
I don't see how four GC contenders (Froome, Quintana, Valverde and Contador not to mention Nibali) are all going to "fail" allowing him to triumph. They've all finished in front of him so far and it's just going to be more of the same. It was never going to be his Tour with that much competition.
Ohhhhh ! Wait..
Changed my mind.
Dan
The
Martin.
8)
Dan Martin is a good call.
I'll go for Rodriguez.
I'm tempted to go for Geraint being given the nod to go clear in the break away...
I'd love to see that, I think most of british cycling would like to see that, but I don't think Contador/Valverde teams will allow it and have them moved down on GC.
We have often seen these looming big stages turn out to be a GC stalemate. Everyone marking each other out. Perhaps today will be the same.
Personally, I think Friday is the big day. That last climb has the potential for some big shakeups.
Did Oakley find some old Jawbones? Is that what G wears?
I don't see how four GC contenders (Froome, Quintana, Valverde and Contador not to mention Nibali) are all going to "fail" allowing him to triumph. They've all finished in front of him so far and it's just going to be more of the same. It was never going to be his Tour with that much competition.
I see where he's coming from though, just trying to be consistent and capitalise on someone having a bad day. He doesn't seem to have what it takes to attack on the steep stuff but he can grind his way up at a fair old pace. He did gap Froome up Pra Loup last time out. Still think it'll be TGV or (more likely) Contador on the podium with Quintana and Froome.
Not going to get to see any of today as off out climbing and then to the pub... I'm hoping it's a dull, cagey affair!
Contrador to make his attack on the podium.
I think today is a day that if you want to win overall you have to gamble and that means tearing it up from the start of the day and trying to isolate Froome. Sky are starting to look vulnerable with illness etc. so it really is now or never, waiting till later in the week will be too late.
G in a breakaway? no chance. The best chance he has of significantly moving up GC is if Froome attacks and he still has enough to pick up the left overs.
My prediction: a breakaway win. Come on the Yates. Otherwise a bit of argy bargy but not much change to GC.
Did Oakley find some old Jawbones? Is that what G wears?
Yes, his Fiancée found a pair, presumably at home. I suspect he and/or Oakley will also be locating a few pairs for additional spares over the coming weeks.
What, on that descent - should make for a really, really boring afternoon 😯forecast of late rain
GENIEZ to take yet another stage win
G won't get anyone to ride with him in a breakaway, he's far too close to the GC to be allowed the kind of time a breakaway would need. Plus with G off the front Sky would be kicking back, whilst the teams of the other GC contenders need them to be working almost from the off in order to pressurise Froome.
Matt
Movistar/Tinkoff to try and rip it up on Col d'Allos in the hope of reducing Sky support to a bare minimum and then hope that Quintana/AC (who should have been able to have some steak last night since the testers aren't allowed to do overnight testing in France)/Valv will be able to take the fight to CF on the last climb. The problem is that Pra Loup isn't all that hard or long so unless CF had an awful day, he's unlikely to lose lots of time even if he's not going well.
The contenders other than Froome have to take risks now; unless they are content to settle for the podium.
It needs someone with the "second is first loser" mentality to give it a go, and unless Movistar can arrange for Quintana / Valverde to work together in a death or glory mission I can't see anyone else being able to out-Sky the team.
Unless, of course, the descent / mechanicals get in the way of Froome; but that is equally a risk for the other contenders.
It needs someone with the "second is first loser" mentality to give it a go, and unless Movistar can arrange for Quintana / Valverde to work together in a death or glory mission I can't see anyone else being able to out-Sky the team.
My thoughts exactly. Movistar need to be prepared to sacrifice one of them. Assuming Quintana as leader, Valverde has to go for a full bore attack to stand a chance of breaking Froome. Sky will be forced to bring him back and that might give Quintana a chance to get away. Repeated little digs don't seem to do anything as the Sky train just TT's back on to the wheel.
A Bertie Inn steak dinner might for Valverde liven things up nicely but that's a comment for the other thread...
this is almost impossible to call because depending on who gets in the break determines whether it will be a GC fight at the end...
I'm going for Teklahaimanot, he went well in the Dauphine on this stage and he's down on GC so won't be chased by the leaders teams
the idea that valverde works for anyone but himself is quite hilarious 🙂Quintana / Valverde to work together
I know what you mean and I'm no fan of him given in my view his lack of any indication that he considers doping wrong, but actually I think he's been a fairly good No 1 for Quintana over the last couple of years.
G in a breakaway? no chance. The best chance he has of significantly moving up GC is if Froome attacks and he still has enough to pick up the left overs.
Yep - wonderful though it would be to see G on the podium he's got next to no chance. If he goes up the road Movistar and Tinkoff-Saxo and probably BMC as well will chase him straight down to protect Valverde, Contador and TJvG's positions respectively and all it would do is wreck G and he'd be no help to CF.
Might work as a tactical move to exhaust the teams but it's too high risk, especially when you've got three strong teams to pull him back.
Could go either way - bit of a testing prod, a few little moves to try it out but nothing changes or it could be all hell breaking loose. Everyone else is running out of options and time now, they need to attack, try and claw back a few seconds here and there at a time cos no-one is going to get back 3 minutes unless CF crashes.
If Valverde was in a solo breakaway he'd probably refuse to work with himself. Quintana and Valverde as joint leaders is the worst idea since Hinault and Lemond.the idea that valverde works for anyone but himself is quite hilarious
If I were sky and Valverde attacked, I'd let him get a gap. Would stir things up in the Movistar camp. He'll lose a bunch of time on Friday and Saturday anyway.
Also earlier...
Alberto Contador said prior to the start this morning: "I feel better than in 2013. I feel better and better each day. I came to the Tour for winning, not for making the top 5. My goal remains unchanged. The peloton is tired. There'll be opportunities. I intend to make the best of them."
Always seems to take a step up after the second rest day of a grand tour too...
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... is all I'm saying 🙂
im still hopeful for a GC shakeup - remember Schleck attacking on the galiber - was it 2011? a marked contender can still put a lot of time in the leader if the have a go
That attack by Schleck is, sadly, the exception rather than the rule and probably one of the best GC attacks of recent history. I don't think the others thought he was actually going to try to do such a long range one.
I have a pair of Jawbones, didn't realise they were no longer made or rare?
Really want Froome to win but I also want to see some big attacks from the GC riders today. I need some kind of sub plot similar to the races of old, big attacks on climbs and a show of character from some of the top riders.
Is it just me who feels to top riders all lack personality and interest compared to some of the classic older winners?
I might be spouting shite
If you look at the position Valv's [i]always[/i] been in, and in teams he's been in, over the years you'll understand his "singular" mentality. It's only now during the last few years as a Pro that he's turning into a team player.
I like that singularity and now maturity in him.
(I'm a huge fan BTW if you haven't already guessed)
I think Valv's done some excellent work with Qunity, he's not only shadowed and protected but drawn out contenders and split breaks up and controlled Sky to a great degree.
It would be nice to see him win this stage but honestly theres more at stake today than that.
im still hopeful for a GC shakeup - remember Schleck attacking on the galiber - was it 2011? a marked contender can still put a lot of time in the leader if the have a go
Is it just me who feels to top riders all lack personality and interest compared to some of the classic older winners?
That's just modern professional sport.
I get the impression that some people haven't been watching this Tour at all. When have Movistar/Tinkoff/Astana/BMC ever put Sky in trouble? Most of the time they have been conspicuous by their absence other than the team leaders and Froome has had 2 sometimes 3 teammates with him on the final climbs.
Even when it has all kicked off and Froome has ended up on his own he has proved more than able to mark the various attacks and still take time out of his rivals. I don't see that situation changing over the next few days.
And yeah, Valverde sacrificing himself to help Quintana up the GC is so likely. He's just hanging around hoping that Quintana is going to crack so that he can become the de facto leader.
Only your POV there shirley?
Anyhoo's a couple of breaks have tried to go but it's all together before the first climb.
My prediction is that sky boost up the d'Allos riding *tempo*, CF and RP do their 'thang' and drop everybody to the top with another 100+ rpm attack.
Sir Dave is halfway down the otherside with a big stick in case anybody isn't having another 'bad day' like they were told to and tries to actually descend the damn thing...
😀
Break forming on the climb, Sag's is in it so too Cigar boy.. 😀
I'm gonna say one of the Yates brothers for a stage win today, OGE have been pretty quiet with injuries and so on.
Also hoping there is repeated attacks from all 4 of the other GC contenders, my thought is they all need to be at it today and try however difficult it may be to chip away at Sky and try and brake them down.
Blimey, some early skirmishes. Tejay out the back already?! 1:20 down on the peloton apparently and the gaps getting bigger. Le Mond still wittering on, need to get to the coverage!
Speaking of Le Mond, he seems to be under the impression that Sky are saying that oval rings give you 6% more power. i thought he was more tech savvy.
Well looks like I have cursed Tejay. Team just confirmed he's sick (and not in the DH mtb sort of way.) Already a few mis down.
Shame to see a contender out through illness though it's part and parcel of grand tour racing, I guess.
Interesting situation - Porte and Roche in the 28 man breakaway which is currently 2'22" up on the peleton.
tdf web site says break of 28 @2:20 with Roche and Porte in it. Dave got a plan?
tdf web site says break of 28 @2:20 with Roche and Porte in it. Dave got a plan?
Common move to put a couple of your lower-placed riders in the break. They can sit in, do nothing and then when the break gets caught, they'll be right up there well placed to help the leader.
Or, if the break looks like it'll stay away they can contribute to it and hopefully sneak a stage win for the team.
I think Tejay ill could be significant as previously Sky had a team in BMC who might have helped close down Movestar & Saxo attacks, not anymore, it is all up to Sky.
Interesting Porte and Rocha are in the break, suggests they wouldn't have been able to hold on if in the peloton.
Aside: Hope BMC don't think Porte is going to win them GT's in 2016 'cos if so they are wasting their money.
Common move to put a couple of your lower-placed riders in the break. They can sit in, do nothing and then when the break gets caught, they'll be right up there well placed to help the leader.
Sure but it is not something Sky do
suggests they wouldn't have been able to hold on if in the peloton.
perhaps this
Was going to say earlier that Porte, Roche and Thomas would be glued to Froome until the last climb... so eyebrows definitely raised here!
Sorry, don't follow the logic of that. 2 minutes up on a peleton they're too slow to stay with?Interesting Porte and Rocha are in the break, suggests they wouldn't have been able to hold on if in the peloton
Sorry, don't follow the logic of that. 2 minutes up on a peleton they're too slow to stay with?
Once you're actually in the break and it's established, it's pretty easy to just sit there. The difficulty is getting into it in the first place, it can often mean an hour of breakneck attacks until something sticks and the bunch are happy to let it go.
That said, it's better than hanging on for grim death in a hard-chasing peloton all day.
The suggestion is that they're getting a headstart so that if things kick off, when the leaders catch them, they'll then be able to help CF whereas if they're with the leaders, they'd struggle to stay with them when the attacks start.
Good tactics if the remaining Sky riders can stick with CF long enough (and with G's form so far, you wouldn't bet against it).
Porte and Roche in the break and Van Garderen dropped is ideal for Froome, couldn't be better. GC contenders will want to distance Van Garderen so they have a chance at a podium place so their teams will be pulling on the front, Porte and Roche can work in the break to keep the tempo high and are well placed if the peloton catches them.
don't follow the logic of that. 2 minutes up on a peleton they're too slow to stay with?
As well as the point noted above about sitting in, it gives you room to slide backwards later on in the stage as you tire, plus you are not subjected to trying to hang onto the attacks of the main contenders.
Or they could be covering the movistar riders in case quitanarama tries something
Contador is trying to get a gap but looks like Movistar are closing it
Feel sorry for poor TJ, he'd only just rejoined after a herculean effort to get back on and suddenly, BANG, it all kicks off again!
Peleton is strung out and they have dropped Van Garderen
TJ looks in terrible shape.
G in 4th overall as things stand then?
Edit: not yet but TJ is going backwards quickly.
I went out for lunch (burp) clearly took my eye off this and come back to Porte and Roache' up the road??
Eh?
Valv's moved up a place in CG and Berties dropped one?
Pinots on a charge?
Wheres me little French fellas and "BeGorra"?
🙄
TVG Oooot lads 😕
Disappointing for Van Garderen, that was hard viewing and I feel his pain.
Is there more illness than usual this year? It's almost like the cholera has swept through the peloton.
Tejay abandoning. Feel very sorry for him. Had a very solid ride so far, think he was a credible podium chance.
Is he in the car? We're on a break here in ITV4 land.
Ooo
Is all I have to say currently.
Oh and I feel bad for TvG - crap way to go out.
Poor bugger, work so hard to get to this point and you get sick...
Van Garderen has finished!!!. Just got in his team car
They are after Froome...nutter Barguil has gone off front ready to take everyone out on other side!!
shame about TJ
Tejay, bless. Horrible to get so close with a good position.
Poor TJvG, he looked devastated. 🙁
Sorry to lose TJvG, I regard him as new guard, helping to displace the tainted 'old guard'.
This is shaping up nicely!
My desk is now cleared...
Sorry to lose TJvG, I regard him as new guard, helping to displace the tainted 'old guard'.
Yet oddly he doesn't seem to find it odd that his training partner from time to time is Lance Armstrong. Lance rides with him and motorpaces him when they're both in Colorado.
That Lemond "recon" of the descent looked a bit hairy. Good for him that he's still going for it
Rear wheel skid from Lemond followed by a close inspection of a crash barrier 🙂