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My predictions:
Cav will withdraw early - perhaps after stage 6.
I'm pretty certain of this one given how wiggo and cav have been talking.
Top 3:
Wiggo
Evans
Rogers/Porte (can't quite decide)
Green jersey: hmmm Sagan?
KOM: Any decent climber who doesn't just aim for GC.
Fingers crossed for no crashes!
Your best mates wiggo and cav been talking down the pub with you?
I predict the main race will be for Strava Segments on the route.
I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn't there.
No crashes, I [s]hope[/s] feel it's Wiggins' to lose.
Your best mates wiggo and cav been talking down the pub with you?
Is there any need?
I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn't there.
This ^.
I do hope it's not just a Bradley/Cadel show though
I predict when someone else wins Franck will moan that Andy Shleck wasn't there.
Any excuse...
So long as its not Evans again I don't mind who wins. He really grinds my gears.
Wiggins is going into it too much of a favourite for my liking, would prefer if he was more of an underdog.
Evans is the man to beat for me, normally i'd be pleased with him winning but not this year, would love to see Wiggins do it. Is Froome totally over the health issues he had? Could be in with an outside shout as he got stronger as the Vuelta went on whereas Wiggins tailed off a bit.
If Andy Schleck [i]was[/i] there, I don't see how he'd be able to take the 6+ minutes out of Wiggo (and his train) that he'd have to, in order to compensate for his highly average time trialling. Just watch Frank for an indication.
If you'd have said Contador, then I agree. A Contador that focusses purely on one GT, would probably win it. Of course many think he dopes, but then there are those who also accuse Wiggo.
I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn't there.
Why? Even if he was on good form, Andy would lose probably 6 or 7 mins to Bradley over the 100km of time trialing. I'd be surprised if he could have pulled that back over the relatively few mountain stages this year.
edit: snap^
Cav will withdraw early - perhaps after stage 6.
why?
olympics. fulfil contractual obligation to do the tour then have a couple of weeks off. nice.
olympics
As a relative newbie to darkside appreciation, I have a observation...
Team Sky, as a whole, seem to be incrediable strong compaired to the rest. As a team, I can't tell who could beat them...
So I have a question.... if thier team is the best and thier leader is right up there as a favourite .... is it not thiers to lose?
How does Evans get a look in, when BMC seem far weaker ?
There's still probably 3 stages Cav could win, including the champs elysees after stage 6, so I'm not sure he will pull out that quick.
Team Sky, as a whole, seem to be incrediable strong compaired to the rest. As a team, I can't tell who could beat them...
Rabobank and BMC both have pretty strong teams too.
yeah but there is also an olympic road race gold that cav could win. and the better prepared and rested he is the better i would have thought.
Because Cav would rather have Olympic Gold and the course looks to suit him. He's shed some weight specifically to get over Box Hill and is confident. The other Team GB members are very happy to support him in the same way they did at the Word Champs.
I don't think going for green would put him in the best position.
The indications come from a couple of recent Wiggo and Sky interviews where wiggo says that he's yet to hear from Cav's mouth that he's going for green and also Cav hasn't really mentioned it for a while.
Even Brailsford dodged the question.
oh and Wiggo mentioned in a video released yesterday that they might only go for green for "a third of the race".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/18517127
I predict it will not be a classic. tours won on time trials are boring as hell. There's no real characters anymore, who will keep on having digs. Probably because there's not as much doping going on, but that's a different topic!
GC
Wiggins
Evans
Sanchez
Green
Sagan or Greipel
KOM
god knows!
The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don't believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.
KOM
god knows!
Hoogerland says he wants to go for it this year - one do-or-die raid for the bulk of the points on one of the big mountin days and follow-the-leader after that should be enough for anyone who wants it.
Will be interesting between Cav and Sagan for green, if Cav goes the distance - otherwise I think Sagan is a shoe-in, barring mishaps....
I do hope it's not just a Bradley/Cadel show though
Even if it is, as long as it's a proper one, it could be interesting.
It's likely that Cadel would have to gain time in the mountains (maybe only 30s, but still) in order to compete. That could light it up a touch.
I do want wiggo to win, but worry (like Omar Little above) that being a favourite might be too much for him/sky.
What's always unpredictable is which of the 'bubbling unders' will have the tour of their life to compete (like Voekler did last year and Wiggo did in 2009, VdV in 2008, etc). There's always one or two!
I still don't really know which of the Garmin riders will be the main GC tour rider - I wonder it Jonathan Vaughters prefers it this way - off the radar. Certainly Sky can't do that.
"I will win stages but I may not win five. My sprint has suffered a little bit, but the guys who are sprinters, [b]like I was[/b], won't be there in the [Olympic road race] finish.”
The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don't believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.
In what context? In cycling terms Yes. In negotiating your next cereal advertising deal? Not a chance
"I will win stages but I may not win five. My sprint has suffered a little bit, but the guys who are sprinters, like I was, won't be there in the [Olympic road race] finish.”
Maybe he thinks he's a GC rider after the SterZLM Toer result? 😉
I predict when Wiggins wins it people will moan that Andy Shleck wasn't there.
Contador, maybe, but Shleck? Nah...
Wiggo for the win, but not that bothered - as long as it's a close finish with some decent mountain stages I'll be happy 🙂
The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don't believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.
I think you are right in the eyes of the traditional cycling fans and the euro teams.
However, there seems to be a big push to keep cycling at the forefront of the british public's eyes. The olympics have always been more important than stage racing in their (less knowledgeable) eyes.
If the Tour was on BBC with a bit of hype around it, then who knows, but it's not. That said, I think ITV are going to try and milk it for all they can this year.
He is a cyclist!In what context? [b]In cycling terms Yes[/b]. In negotiating your next cereal advertising deal? Not a chance
I don't doubt that he wants both tour and olympics, but if it's either-or then the tour wins by a mile. Plus the small teeam size in the olympic race means it will be very difficult to deliver Cav - basically every other nation will be trying everything they can to thwart him/us - and we don't have enough men to cover every eventuality. The worlds was easier in that respect - and it still wasn't easy!
He's said he wants the Olympics this year, it comes around every four years, so he has to go for it this year.
Personally I think we've seen the last of Mark Cavendish - grand tour sprinter. Next year I predict a more classics based season for him...
glenp - did you read trickydisco's Cav interview linked above?
I hadn't read it, but have now. My opinion is unaltered really. If anything influences his tour prospects, it is the possible split in support for him and for Wiggins in the tour that takes the shine off his green jersey ambitions.
Whatever happens it's going to be a great summer for cycling.
Personally I think we've seen the last of Mark Cavendish - grand tour sprinter. Next year I predict a more classics based season for him...
It'd certainly suit him if he doesnt bulk up again post olympics. I reckon he's addaptable enough that he could build the strength back up fairly quickly and be back to normal next year. The classics aren't as mainstream as the tours so as someone alluded to above, you can't negotiate a sponsorship deal on the back of winning races no one's heard of.
It was me! but you can if you're winning obscure races with an Olympic medal round your neck
It was me! but you can if you're winning obscure races with an Olympic medal round your neck
Indeed, I just read on the BBC that he won his first ever GC erlier this year, I take a reasnoble intrest in road cycling and ddin't know that! Hence why I think he'll go back to sprinting, even if the TDF is less watched than the olympics people still know of it and it makes the news. It worked for Lance anyway. Bessides he's only 27, may as well make the most of his 20's and ability to build big mucles, he can do some classics later once his sprint starts to wane.
The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don't believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.
Except that he probably has another 5 or so TdF to win green, and the Olympics is only once every 4 years, the Olympics in London once in his lifetime. In overall terms he's far better off having one less green jersey and a couple less stages (unless of course he finishes on 33!) and an Olympic Gold medal at the end of his career.
I predict a boring Tour. IMHO CE won last year by following the people he needed to 90+% of the time knowing he'd womp the Schlecks in the TT.
I think BW and CE are evens to win and my opinion is that Brad only needs to do what CE did last year.
It does appear that BMC aren't as strong as Sky but where I think Sky had a major part of their Tour roster at the Dauphine I get the impression that BMC had split theirs across Dauphine and TdSuisse so may look a lot stronger come Tour time. I also think CE has the edge on BW in descending but I don't know enough about the route to know if there is any stage(s) where any time could be taken on a last descent breakaway.
I have said ever since Cav signed to Sky that I hoed he would not go to the Tour. I don't like him I will admit but my main reason is that his place, for my money, would be better taken by someone who can support Brad in the mountains. I really hope that hubris won't lead Brailsford to lose the very best chance that a Brit has ever had of winning the overall. To me this is the year to do it. Another year without winning it may be one too many for BW given his age and I suspect that Chris Froome is maybe 2 seasons from being at the place where Brad is.
Please don't let the Cav love fest ruin a British TdF win.
Cav wining green is a British TdF win. Not GC, but a win nonetheless. Even if Cav wins a few stages but is not consistent enough to get the green, that is still well worthwhile, from the team's pov. Wiggins is going to score well in the tt, and try and hold his place in the mountains - I can't see that having another rider instead of Cav in the team is going to do much to alter that picture.
Even if Cav wins a few stages but is not consistent enough to get the green, that is still well worthwhile, from the team's pov. Wiggins is going to score well in the tt, and try and hold his place in the mountains - I can't see that having another rider instead of Cav in the team is going to do much to alter that picture.
To go in with a stated aim that Cav is basically on his own, looking for stage wins, and the rest of the team is there to protect Wiggins is fine. Likewise, taking a train for Cav to use for stages and for points at the intermediate sprints in pursuit of Green, and Wiggins does what he can, is also fine..... Over three weeks though, to expect the team to ride on the front to protect Wiggins for GC, pull in the mountains for him AND ride to pull back breaks on the flat stages then lead out Cav and help get points in the intermediate sprints as well is asking quite a lot. Chapeau if they can do that.
I know Telekom managed it with Zabel/Ullrich, but Zabel was on his own most of the time and the whole team wasn't doing it on bread and water alone, ahem 😉
I think Cavendish has made a pretty damned good job of poaching other riders' lead-outs in the past, and he'll happily do that again. Plus if he is a bit lighter and more all-rounder-ish he'll be better able to protect himself from other riders getting green points in places other than bunch sprints. So even if the team focus more on Wiggins (which I think they should) that doesn't rule Cavendish out.
Probably as soon as one week into the tour I think the team will decide if Cavendish is going all the way to Paris - my point is that I don't believe they have already taken that decision, or at least I'd be surprised if they have.
So even if the team focus more on Wiggins (which I think they should) that doesn't rule Cavendish out.Probably as soon as one week into the tour I think the team will decide if Cavendish is going all the way to Paris - my point is that I don't believe they have already taken that decision, or at least I'd be surprised if they have.
Indeed anything can happen - Sky very much had to refocus last year having lost Wiggins. Also, I agree Cav can look after himself, and has been doing that quite well this year, albeit winning less. I still think Sagen will give him a run for his money over the 3 weeks for Green as he is much more the all-rounder that can sprint, so you're probably right to some extent that they'll see if Cav is in the hunt before the mountains and then decide, rather than chasing the Green jersey all the way to Paris regardsless of whether he'll win or not.
Cavendish has said in several interviews that his main goal this year is the Olympics. Check out the BBC Sport website.
I predict he'll go hard for a few stages early on and the drop out to recover and prepare for the Olympic Road Race.
The bookies are pricing Wiggo up like he's Lance Armstrong - nearly at evens which seems an unbelievably short price for someone who's never come close to winning the Tour. Or even contested it really.
Still, he's in the shape of his life, with the tour course as favourable as it will ever be, and a couple of main contenders out injured, so it's now or never.
Would predict the wee Aussie cane toad to come out on top, tbh. CE is such a tough rider and probably has enough left in the tank at 35 to win another Tour.
I've just realised I'm going to be away (without mobile coverage or anything) for the final weekend. Arse.
Sky squad announced and a few soundbites here:
http://www.britishcycling.org.uk/road/article/roa20120621-road-Wiggins-and-Cavendish-lead-Team-Sky-Tour-de-France-squad-0
Apart from coming 4th in 2009, behind Contador, A. Schleck and Armstrong.someone who's never come close to winning the Tour. Or even contested it really
The bookies are pricing Wiggo up like he's Lance Armstrong - nearly at evens which seems an unbelievably short price for someone who's never come close to winning the Tour. Or even contested it really.
Bookies aren't selling accurate odds, they're selling odds to a marketplace whilst at the same time making money. More Brittish peple will bet on Wiggins than Evans, if you want good odds on Wiggins place a bet in Sydney for example. That and 'evens' wouldn't mean they're thinking its 50/50 which it would imply, they're thinking maybe 60/40 with a profit for them. If they were actual statistical odds then they'd have to equal 1 (which they never do, they're always loaded towards the bookie).
Unsettling photoshop moment of the day:
[img] 
[/img]
....nice touch that they've used a photo of Wiggins for the "team shot" in plain kit, as he defo won't have the national RR jersey by the time the tour starts. That's my cast iron tour prediction - where do I put my bet 😉
you can't negotiate a sponsorship deal on the back of winning races no one's heard of.
what no name races such as milan san remo, tour of flanders, ghent wevelgem, etc. They may not carry the weight in the UK, but there are plenty of other countries and plenty of other teams. Look at the stick Gilbert is getting in the belgian press for not winning classics this year.
Look at the stick Gilbert is getting from everywhere, especially the massive-paycheck-signing Andy Rihs for not even coming close to winning anything this year.
FTFY..... it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with at the Tour.
Hmmm, having just seen the French National TT results, I'm now predicting that [b]Jérémy Roy[/b] will be this year's Voekler.
(he was pretty damn good last year too).
The tour is way way more important than the olympic road race. I don't believe Cav would prioritise the olympics over green in the tour.
Rubbish. This may have been the case 20-30 yeas ago but it certainly isnt now.
Spartacus: Cancellara has long stated that his primary objective for the summer is the London Olympics.
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cancellara-happy-with-progress-after-swiss-tt-win
Boonen: Tom Boonen, the season's top one-day racer, has decided to skip the Tour de France to focus on Olympic gold in London.
http://espn.go.com/olympics/cycling/story/_/id/7936723/tom-boonen-skipping-tour-de-france-put-focus-2012-london-games
If a BELGIAN is skipping the Tour to focus on the Olympic RR I think we can safely say that, these days, it's a big deal...
do they think he doped because he failed a doping test during the tour?A Contador that focusses purely on one GT, would probably win it. Of course many think he dopes, but then there are those who also accuse Wiggo
As for wiggo heard nothing about this as an olympian or as a road rider. I would be very very surprised [ I was about bertie tbh]
Wiggo or evanss I cannot really see anyone else tbh
Will be interesting as i dont think cuddles has the legs to attack and i cannot see him dropping Wiggo by enough tbh.
I hope Wiggo does it I really do
Overall I am elated we are discussing a TdF with a UK rider winning it, we are discussing whether a UK rider should go for green or Olympic road gold and then focus on classics
Twenty years ago this was fantasy stuff, 10 years ago an unlikely dream and today a reality. It is the best time for UK cycling ever so lets enjoy it
what no name races such as milan san remo, tour of flanders, ghent wevelgem, etc. They may not carry the weight in the UK, but there are plenty of other countries and plenty of other teams. Look at the stick Gilbert is getting in the belgian press for not winning classics this year.
Indeed, but the British press couldn't care less. All you ever see in the papers over here is
Track
Vulletta (if anything interesting happens)
Giro (if anything interesting happens)
Le Tour
Most Brits probably couldn't find Roubaix on a map, a small minority might know it has a velodrome and there's a race form Paris once a year, and a few of them know who won an what bike he was riding, a very very small minority might know what breakfast cereal he eats. They do however know who Chris Hoy is, that he wins gold for cycling in circles and eats bran flakes. If you were Kellogs dishing out sponsorship money who'd you sponsor?
I reckon Sagan could get on the podium. He's clearly got plenty of form and @ 200 to 1 on billy hill, it's worth a punt.
In any other year Cav wouldn't bother with the Olympics I reckon but as its the home event, he is our best candidate he would be daft not to. It wouldn't look good for Sky if they put that second. Of course I reckon it helps having a cross over between Sky and BC.
I am not the only ne who sees the Tour as more important. So many friends are amazed that there won't be the same riders who win the tour (in all likelyhood) there. To joe non cycling public the Olympics are the big one but to other its the tour. Ask most cyclists who is the current Olympic champ and most won't even have heard of him. Ask about the Tour and everyone knows.
Most Brits probably couldn't find Roubaix on a map, a small minority might know it has a velodrome and there's a race form Paris once a year, and a few of them know who won an what bike he was riding, a very very small minority might know what breakfast cereal he eats. They do however know who Chris Hoy is, that he wins gold for cycling in circles and eats bran flakes. If you were Kellogs dishing out sponsorship money who'd you sponsor?
And how much does Cav get from Sky, which is a global brand even if it is a british team, how much does he receive from personal deals. How much could he earn with a green jersey and how much could he earn if he gets an olympic gold? Have to look beyond his current deal and towards where he will be in a few years. He won't be sprinting many more years and will probably need to look at the classics for his pay cheques.
So many friends are amazed that there won't be the same riders who win the tour (in all likelyhood) there.
What is surprising, a rider who can win a 3week race not appearing in a relatively flat one day race. Why do so few riders win the tour and the world championship road race?
All it reflects is how little most people in the UK know about cyclesport in general and nothing more.
Vincenzo Nibali.
ok, i'm gonna chuck in my two penneth
yellow.
1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Menchov
green.
Matt Goss
polka dot.
I'd love to say Dan Martin, but I'm gonna go left field and say Pierre Rolland.
polka dot.I'd love to say Dan Martin, but I'm gonna go left field and say Pierre Rolland.
That's quite a good call actually.
This is news from last night from @inrng:
10th on GC & white jersey in TdF last year, Pierre Rolland was 34th in the French TT champs. Beaten by Gaylord Cumont
If he's going to lose that much in the time trials, then GC is probably not worth chasing, allowing him to go for polkadot.
I guess we'll see on the second weekend who is bothered about the mountaintop points.
Regarding the uk cycling knowledge. Unfortunately, we're so jingoistic in this country (perhaps others are too), that things only get on the radar when we've got the best in the world at it.
That's partly the reason why we've got so much British talent at the moment - it's because of the money ploughed into those Olympic Golds after Lottery funding started it off in time for Sydney.
But, hopefully it means that the Tour de France and the Olympic Road Race/TT get some more publicity this year.
GC: Wiggins, Evans, Hesjedal
Green: Between Sagan and Cavendish, interesting to Cavendish recently winning a GC by placing high every day but not actually winning a stage. Is it possible that he's happier to chase points this year rather than sit up once he no longer sees the win as a possibility?
Mountains: I've no idea!
Sky can work for both Wiggins and Cavendish. Granted they may not sit on the front pulling the break back in the last 60km, expect Garmin and Liquigas to do a bit more of that. But they will be working a train in the closing stages for Cavendish, Sky's job is to keep Cav safe for the sprint and Wiggo near the front safe from crashes/splits in the field. If you think about maybe a 4 man train, Cav as 5th man and Wiggo on his tail (or even swap them around) then it works for both Cav and Wiggo. Dave Brailsford has said this is an aim.
Mrmo - The question about TdF winners not becoming World Champs is quite straight forward. The World Champs is a one day race, like a classic race (courses can be similar too), generally people who do well in World Champs races do well in one day races, or win stages in Grand Tours. The winner of a Grand Tour is the person who completes every stage of a tour in the shortest time, they don't necessarily win any stages. They're generally the best all rounder, not the best sprinter, not the best climber (although generally very good!), not the most powerful, not got the biggest engine - but possibly the best at recovering and being up there to race every single day.
Time of the year also has something to do with it. The Grand Tours are in May, July and September. It's difficult to peak for one tour, then again for a one day race at the very end of the season. If you do the Vuelta in September and the World Champs, chances are you're targeting winning one of them not both.
Mrmo - The question about TdF winners not becoming World Champs is quite straight forward. The World Champs is a one day race, like a classic race (courses can be similar too), generally people who do well in World Champs races do well in one day races, or win stages in Grand Tours. The winner of a Grand Tour is the person who completes every stage of a tour in the shortest time, they don't necessarily win any stages. They're generally the best all rounder, not the best sprinter, not the best climber (although generally very good!), not the most powerful, not got the biggest engine - but possibly the best at recovering and being up there to race every single day.
I know that, but the point is not many in the UK understand that what it takes to win a 3week tour and a one day race is different and if you can win won doesn't mean you can win the other.
can I just say that this threads sucks all the fun out of what promises to be an EPIC summer of cycling for Britain.
I predict a win for some druggie, followed by some other druggies.
I may have become a bit disillusioned with pro-racing over the years...
brakes - it is sad to hear people say "it'll be really boring". Personally I'll happily let the rest of the world get bored with a Team Sky domination (let's hope), while I watch impressed by how clinically they can deliver their race plan.
I get the feeling that some of the flatter/easier (on paper) stages will have teams like Rabobank trying to ride everyone into a gutter, force a split and make those stages more exciting. I'm not sure the fireworks will actually occur on the climbs this time round.
"What is surprising, a rider who can win a 3week race not appearing in a relatively flat one day race. Why do so few riders win the tour and the world championship road race?
All it reflects is how little most people in the UK know about cyclesport in general and nothing more."
My point exactly
Posted 1 day ago #
I don't get the 'boring' remarks either. There are so many races within races going on, that I don't ever find it properly boring.
Even on a selective stage where most follow, there'll always be some surprises in who's going out the back.
In fact maybe I quite like the fact it's not a mainstream sport.
I wish Christie Anderson was still doing little commentating spots though. She was great for adding some inside info and depth.
I'd also like to see more rider profiles during the day - filling us in on the palmares of a few 'bubbling under' riders and neo pros.
Cav has 20 tdf wins and the record is 34 with 5 or 6 years tops left at this level I cant see him pulling out of the Tour. The olympic road race is a week after the tour finishes
Surely all the Olympic contenders are in TDF as well, not just Cav? Anyway, this year the course will be brutal for any non climber, if he retires after 6 races then it won't be a bad move at all. Sky team will ride for both Wiggans and Cav, it just depends on which one is in the best form / position .
Surely all the Olympic contenders are in TDF as well, not just Cav?
Nope
http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2012/05/16/boonen-skips-tour-de-france-to-center-on-olympics/
expect Garmin and Liquigas to do a bit more of that
Liquigas - Not so much as it's not the Giro
Garmin - Only if there's a chance of some good places in the GC
this year the course will be brutal for any non climber
Seems like the opposite of what the "experts" say. The Schlecks, even on form, were expected to be on for top-10 but not podium with a minimal number of big mountain stages and a lot of TT. This is why I think it plays into Wiggins hands as he seems to be a hang-in-there sort of rider in the mountains than someone like Andy Schleck (despite his 2012, the Galibier last year was an awesome show of strength) or Alberto Contador.
I do have to agree though, that with two of the best TdF riders absent I suspect that people will remember the winner as not competing against the two best big mountain riders of recent years.
I guess it depends on what he goes on to do afterwards. If from now on he's runner up to Contador/Schleck, then you might be right.
It still wont stop me shouting at the telly for 3 weeks though (as long as he doesn't crash)
Well I for one think we need to speculate no further.
Team Sky have now got a [b][i]theme song[/i][/b].
[url= http://www.teamsky.com/article/0,27290,25884_7841156,00.html ]You can listen to it here if you dare.[/url]
It is totally impossible for them [b]not[/b] to win now.
I do hate it when companies announce something as being 'viral' before they know whether it's popular or not.
shit - I watched the 'viral' and actually found it quite stirring