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Morning all.
Strange stage yesterday, no break, almost no racing and then a very entertaining last 50km followed by yellow jersey controversy. One for the highlights show.
Anyway, a new, and possibly more entertaining day today awaits us.
The Route: 191km into the Cevennes. Yes Mont Aigoual featured in Tim Krabbe’s celebrated novel The Rider but the account is on the roads down the other side of the mountain so you won’t get to see them today, nor the place names like Salvinsac that are all too real. Today’s stage is 155km on fast, wide roads, even the first climb to the Cap de Coste climb is quick. It’s after Le Vigan that the race heads into the hills and the feel of the roads changes. The Col des Mourèzes is a steady climb with no surprises and so is the descent but the difficulty will come from the pace as riders need to get into position for what’s to come.
The Col de la Lusette is a tough climb, listed as 11.7km at 7.3%, the stats don’t tell the story and nor does the profile. Bernard Hinault famously had to walk up… or so goes the legend. Some say it was in 1980, others 1981, or it could have been 1985, maybe 1986. It was probably during the Midi Libre. Was it when he abandoned the race in 1980 or another year when he just had the wrong gearing on his bike and walked a few paces to his team car to get a spare bike with lower gears? The answers would spoil the tale, here’s a climb that defeated Hinault and that’s enough of a story.
Back in reality the climb starts on a sharp corner, there’s a ramp into a narrow hairpin bend which is chased by a 10% section. From here on the slope keeps changing, a flat section here, a 12% bit there and the gradient is meaner than the average. The steepest part is as the profile shows, a sustained section of 12-14%. There’s the 8-5-2 second time bonus at the top. The descent is a long straight line and any riders dropped before face a tough time trying to get back as a strong team like Jumbo-Visma ought to be able to keep the pace up.
The Finish: this time it’s as the profile suggests, at least for the wide road up to the small Mont Aigoual ski area. Here the road flattens out, a loop around the hilltop with a small descent 500m before the line.
The route?
So, who should we be watching out for?
The Contenders: the breakaway has a chance today, the problem is you need lots of horsepower for the flat 155km but the finish is for the climbers so the rouleurs won’t like the finish but the climbers won’t like the work needed to reach the foot of Mont Aigoual with a big buffer. If there’s no danger on GC Mitchelton-Scott won’t chase too hard because Adam Yates is only three seconds ahead of Primož Roglič on GC and so they’d surely prefer the breakaway to mop up the time bonuses. Alessandro de Marchi and Ilnur Zakarin (CCC), Thomas de Gendt (Lotto-Soudal), Ben Hermans (Israel), Tiesj Benoot and Nicolas Roche (Sunweb) fit the bill. There are plenty of others down on GC who might be able to win but are retained for team duties, eg at Cofidis Jesus Herrada will work for Guillaume Martin, Alexey Lutsenko will accompany Miguel Angel Lopez.
For the GC contenders it’s a strange finish, those that make the selection over the Col de la Lusette can hope to get their breath back for the finish, the stage result is not necessarily going to correlate with the best climber. Still Primož Roglič (Jumbo-Visma) has won in Orcières-Merlette already so makes for an easy pick, among the GC contenders he’s got the best sprint, he’s got the strongest team and has a motive too with the time bonus.
The flatter final kilometre suits Julian Alaphilippe (Deceuninck-Quickstep) who’ll be out with a point to prove today but can he hang on during the hardest part of the Col de la Lusette? Jumbo-Visma won’t wait and should be happy with Adam Yates (Mitchelton-Scott) in yellow but only because he’s here for stage hunting right? Only he’s in the race lead and hasn’t sat up as he ought to, Jumbo might have a problem if Yates starts winning more. If Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) can sit tight for the sprint he’s got a chance.
And, as ever, over to CyclingTips for a few pics.
France, once again, looking epic.
Tight finish.
I think Reilhan will win by 10cm
Thomas de Gendt is a good call - breakaway specialist who can still climb.
Yates had already targeted this stage as being ideal for him to gain yellow - as he's already in yellow he might be extra motivated to go for the win. But then JA might want it back after his error yesterday...
I'm going with Quintana. Been on good form this year...not sure if he will be allowed to go but dont think he is a QC contender so maybe they will let him go?.
Yates in yellow? It was _so_ boring I turned it off right after the finish and didn't bother after that. I'm sure he would have preferred to take it another way but hey.
Should be a lot more interesting today hopefully
Lets see what Roglic and AP do today then, but I reckon Yates will hang on to yellow
I’m going with Quintana. Been on good form this year…not sure if he will be allowed to go but dont think he is a QC contender so maybe they will let him go?.
too long and flat at the top for Quintana
deffo the day for a break to win it,
Stage would have been perfect for Yates, but in yellow, he won't get the chance to go.
TdG would be ace on a day like this.
This is a really odd finish. I can't remember a grand tour stage quite like it.
The GC riders will have to race up the Col de la Lusette (where "race" might include something like the way stage 4 finished). It's properly hard, selective, near enough the end to matter. So a small(ish) group will emerge, and enough of them will be up for it that they'll likely never be caught. But there's 13.5km to the end from the top, and it's not obvious how the resulting small group race on that bit will play out. It's quite far, it's not obvious who it will favour.
Possibilities include mini JV train to the finish (they could still have 4 riders; Roglic wins), proper messy race with no domestiques left for anyone (this would really favour Yates, him and his brother have always been good at that), tight bunch ride, small group sprint (if Alaphillippe is there, he'd be favourite).
Great course design.
(It'll be like yesterday now I've tempted fate)
Roglic for the win again today I reckon, unless the breakaway can keep away. I hope it's the latter 🙂
This is a really odd finish. I can’t remember a grand tour stage quite like it.
Stage 15 of the Giro in 2018 was sort of similar(ish) with a climb 16k out followed by a long drag to the line. Won by the other Yates.
STRONG breakaway has gone
remi cavagna
greg vcan avermaet
jesus herrada lopez
nico roche
neilson powless
daniel oss
edvald boasson hagen
alexey lutsenko
Edvald for the win I reckon
Ooh, yes! He won solo didn't he? I think JV will probably shut that option down today (where by JV I really mean Sepp Kuss).
That is a good break. Roche would be my guess.
if it sticks (currently at 49 secs) then any one of them could win it either by going clear on the climb (GVA or Herrada) or sprinting on the flatter section (nico, edvald, remi)
That is a good break. Roche would be my guess.
Yep, I'd go with that too
Jumbo are so strong yet don't seem to get the same negativity as Sky/Ineos did. Maybe that'll change if they win the tour.
The footage this year has been so beautiful, makes me want to be cycling there right now.
A good break but to many GC teams still at full strength and motivated so I reckon they wont give the break more than 2 mins. JV to do a Sky up Col de la Lusette and all the favourites will group at the top. I'm going to say Roglic will let WVA go and challenge for the win though - and he will win! It would suit JV to leave Yates in yellow for a little while I think.
it's currently edging 6 mins
Break to get caught. GC teams to power up the Lussette, then a long-range break attack for someone to TT up the last push to the end. TDM?
Looking at this break I can’t help but wonder if Greg’s T4 is carpeted.
too long and flat at the top for Quintana
Plus he's busy falling off at the back of the bunch.
Break to be caught and WVA to win, Yates to stay in yellow, day for the break tomorrow perhaps
The other Quintana
Peloton have hit the Col des Mourezes with the break still at 3'22 ish. Ineos have SIX on the front, pushing the pace setting up for an attack on the Lusette perhaps?
With Ineos I think it's more about injuries healing and them wishing to exert a bit of control after a quiet 5 days. They might flatter to deceive as JV push later on... Today is a good day for seeing where Ineos really are.
well my record of being utterly wrong continues as Edvald and Daniel Oss are dropped from the breakaway. Powless attacks, with Roche juming right on him, but Lutsenko looks strong and rides back up. Herrada is yoyoing off the back. GvA is there or thereabouts
Looks like Ineos are keeping the pace steady rather than pushing on to drop others - signs of weakness in their leaders?
Ineos not exactly shredding the peleton. They look under-cooked to me. The break is going out.
And Lutsenko breaks clear, Powless having paid the price for repeated attempts to break free. Cavagna dropped some time ago so just GvA, Roche and Powless chasing. Herrada is still plugging away, tyring to catch those dropped by the front group
That climb looks STEEP!
Nasty looking climb this is, looks really hard work.
I think if INEOS were struggling then Lotto-Jumbo would be pushing the pace to punish them. I suspect they want to keep things relatively easy until the final hill.
Come on Jesus!! No stage win for Cofidis for 12 years!
200 meter gc sprint.
cigars are out in the peloton. having a chat.
Herrada is doing well, just riding up at a constant pace havingbeen dropped, reeling folks in and passing them - but I don't think he'll catch Lutsenko with 1.5k to go and 50+ seconds deficit
Just a shame that it's Astana who I regard as an unrepentant bunch of cheats, primarily due to Vinokourov.
Kind of a dull finish unless something really interesting happens in the next 10 mins.
Oooh, alan philip is off the front in the final seconds
Just a shame that it’s Astana who I regard as an unrepentant bunch of cheats, primarily due to Vinokourov.
Yep, I admire some of the riders, but don't like the team
it was duller than yesterday. Are they are all in training for the TT ?
That was pretty dull, good ride by Lutsenko of course.
Just a shame that it’s Astana who I regard as an unrepentant bunch of cheats, primarily due to Vinokourov.
Lutsenko specifically.
No takers then?
Looking at this break I can’t help but wonder if Greg’s T4 is carpeted.
DOES GREGS VAN HAVE A MAT?
Come on. That joke is more entertaining than the stage was.
No takers then?
If referring to my comment, I was hoping for a least a small nibble!
If referring to my comment
Nope. Referring to what we can all agree is an excellent joke. I'm sure you're all too busy laughing to congratulate me on my genius.
DOES GREGS VAN HAVE A MAT?
My apologies. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The Tour is in town tonight.
And my vip village entry is printed, ready for tomorrow.
Ineos controlling the pace for their new rider in yellow. Oh. Got their dates mixed up?
Jesus Herrada's pain face was the most entertaining thing from yesterday. Looked like he was being crucified.