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So, no Froome (blimmin' illuminati, etc!) and now no Dumoulin either.
If Thomas can stay upright....
Uran looked OK today at the Route de La Sud, unfortunately for Quintana so did Valverde (sarcasm on - still good to see him winning major races at just under 40 - how does he do it? - sarcasm off) who may fancy his chances and create the usual Movistar leadership chaos. Fugslang as an outside bet?
Its wide open without Froome isnt it.
Could actually be one worth watching this year.
Normally I’m just in it for the landscapes, less the racing as in most years In(sky)os have just employed some rolling roadblocks to kill all excitement off.
No Froomidge, no Thomas (maybe) no Tom.. but Sagan, VanEart, DeGhent and possibly a whole host of new French riders out for a spin across their exquisite land.
Will this be the last race ever for the engine that is Kyri??
I'm entering, I generally stay upright & have only a shoulder injury. Quids in.
In all honesty it could make it the best tour for years. Hope a French guy wins, over night God like status if he did
Not watching it this year.
If Thomas can stay upright….
Last year, Sky played the "dual leader" card quite well (much better than Movistar have ever managed) and it put rivals under a lot of pressure never knowing whether to follow Thomas or Froome.
It also eased the media pressure a bit because no matter which one of them ended up leading, Sky could claim it was the plan all along and everything was wonderful.
They don't have that this year, they have Thomas as The Leader and defending champion. How much extra pressure that puts on him and how he'll handle it is anyone's guess. That and the fact that he's incapable of staying rubber side down for 3 weeks at a time...
But Bernal could be a bit of a stealth second leader. Esp if GT is a little off the boil. Could be an interesting Tdf
It could be Bernals year if Thomas isnt there.
If Thomas is there, then whoever is doing well in Ineos will be top 3 if not the winner. Unlike Froome (slightly) and Wiggins (definitely), I think Thomas will not stop Bernal if he is in better form than him.
Looks like Velogames might still be having issue with ASO. there's a "summer : TBC" entry between tour de suisse and toue de pologne 🙁
Its wide open without Froome isnt it.
Did you see today's Tour de Suisse?
If Thomas is there,
My understanding is he will be. Have you heard otherwise?
If Thomas is there,
My understanding is he will be. Have you heard otherwise?
No, but Froome only had a broken leg at first. He hasnt raced much, so will need some top training sessions in the next 2 weeks. The TdS is the perfect training, he's missed that now. I still think Bernal will be better than Thomas in July. Wout Poels maybe too if he is in form. He was struggling a little last week in the CdD (if you can say staying with the top 10 up a mountian is struggling!), though again, they may have had that as a training race, getting ready for the big one.
Campsite booked in Guchen in the Pyrenees as per last year, planning to see stages 12 and 14. The last climb of 12 starts opposite the campsite and 14 is a mountain top finish on the Tourmalet. Managed to get some decent shots there last year.
Nice pic!!
Wout didnt look like he was struggling when he won the stage!!
No one expecting Nibali to claim the top step?
How many stages before Porte hits the deck?
Will Wout Van Aert win a stage?
Who's favourite for the sprints? Will Cav win one?
It would be nice to see one of the French riders finally get onto the top step.
No one expecting Nibali to claim the top step?
That would be dope!
Bernal would do it if they let him off the leash.
Everyone keen on the daily threads again? Happy to oblige if so.
No one mentioned Yates yet?
I reckon he might come good, after all we've seen he's capable of winning a grand tour and he was getting faster during the giro not slower
lunge
Subscriber
Everyone keen on the daily threads again? Happy to oblige if so.
Yes please! 😁
Wout didnt look like he was struggling when he won the stage!!
Different Wout's !
Different Wout’s !
Both Poels and Van Aert won stages. VA got 2 and Poels came 4th overall.
Yes please lunge they are a great addition!
Yes please for daily threads. I will start a mini-league if velogames are allowed to do seomthing
[strong]alanl[/strong] wrote:
Wout didnt look like he was struggling when he won the stage!!
Different Wout’s !
Both Wouts won stages
Thomas has been going as well as Froome in training apparently. He'll not lose form this next week or two provided he's fit to ride. Ineos's training is likely to be just as tough than TdS stages. It'll be the race craft and confidence that will be lacking.
Having said all that, there's far less TT distance than in recent years. I've for a sneaking feeling that Pinot might do well this year. Simon Yates did the Giro this year by the way. Adam is doing the Tour.
@lunge - definitely!
Think it will be good this year. Shame about the injuries to Froome and Dumoulin
If there's less TT and more hills maybe Bardet will finally make the step up.
Oh I thought Simon was doing the tour as well!
I've just caught up on Stage 1 of the Occitainie. Valverde, Uran and Dunbar looking impressive.
It's a shame Roglic isn't going to the TdF, he was clearly on the down slope of his form curve at the Giro but if he'd been pulled out a week early and rested he could have peaked again for the TdF and been favourite IMO.
Barring accidents I think Thomas has to be favourite, he didn't need the TdS for training so it won't affect his build up. Ineos are still strong, especially Bernal and Poels so he'll have plenty of help in the mountains. Hopefully Bernal will be allowed of the leash at some point (as long as it's not because Thomas has crashed out).
Fulsgang looks strong but maintaining that through the TdF is probably a stretch, not an Astana fan either (even though he's OK) so won't be rooting for him.
Quintana needs to show he's a genuine TdF contender again, hopefully he's in good enough form to at least launch some crazy attacks rather than just follow wheels (or a half-assed attack followed by getting dropped when the next acceleration happens)
Thomas has been going as well as Froome in training apparently. He’ll not lose form this next week or two provided he’s fit to ride. Ineos’s training is likely to be just as tough than TdS stages. It’ll be the race craft and confidence that will be lacking.
He - G - was on Bespoke, I think, saying that the main thing he'll miss from Suisse is the race familiarity and the sort of unpredictable surges and accelerations.
But Bernal could be a bit of a stealth second leader. Esp if GT is a little off the boil. Could be an interesting Tdf
I don't think there's much 'stealth' about it. He'll be the second protected rider and there's so much climbing in the race that he could take big chunks of time out of everybody on the high stuff. If you're a GC contender marking Thomas and Bernal goes off the front on a steep pass, what do you do?
Brailsford's quite capable to changing tack mid-race if it means a team win. Plus he seems really enthused by the youngsters, he was burbling incoherently about how exciting the Giro was for him for that reason.
it looks a really tough course this year, and one for the purer climbers too, one individual TT of only 21km with a climb in too, maybe with Roglic (sp? did you know he used to be a ski-jumper!?) isn't going?
I like the look of Fuglsang, great winner at Dauphine and some great results, loads of top four throughout the spring, he definitely seems to be on good form.
Adam Yates looked good to until he got sick, and may suit him quite well.
Going to be interesting watching all the little climbers trying to stay safe in the opening Belgian "classic" stages.
Not watching it this year.
Go on, I'll ask. Why not?
Quintana's a funny one - a few years ago there was talk of him being a contender to topple Froome but that Quintana never materialised. Whether it's Quintana himself or Movistar's tactics I'm not sure. Watching him on the big mountain stages he just seems to lack "race nous" (I'll admit he's far more than I'll ever have) compared to those around him. Unlike Sky/Ineos, Movistar don't seem to have got the two leaders system sorted out and seem to back the wrong horse on any particular stage.
The French: Not sure if Bardet is up to it, he didn't look that sharp at the Dauphiné but he could have been just keeping himself in reserve. I like Alaphilippe, very much in the old style of rider, but whether he can translate his classics form to the three weeks of Le Tour is another matter.
Thomas has been keeping under the radar a bit but given DB's usual attention to detail I've no doubt he'll be ready. As noted above crashing out of the TdS has meant less race conditioning - it's all very well putting the numbers out in training but those need to be applied to the dynamics on the road.
Podium prediction: Thomas, Fuglsang, Bardet (maybe)*.
*That's going to come back to haunt me isn't it? 😀
Podium prediction: Thomas, Quintana Fuglsang. Alaphillipe KOM, Sagan Green jersey
Assuming G does win (big assumption), surely it'll be a bit of a pyrrhic victory for him, given that his two main opponents, Froome and Dumoulin aren't in it?
Podium prediction:
Bernal
Bardet
Yates
Then:
Thomas
Quintana
AP Spotty
PS Green
EB White
Assuming G does win (big assumption), surely it’ll be a bit of a pyrrhic victory for him, given that his two main opponents, Froome and Dumoulin aren’t in it?
Do you have an asterix against Yates and Carapaz because froome couldn't be bothered with defending his Jersies ?
I'd love to see Thomas do it again but I just can't see it happening, Bernal is Ineos's best shot I think. Bardet is the same as Thomas, would love to see it but just can't see it happening at all. Not sure why but I just can't warm to either Yates so don't want to back that way either. Also fascinating to see no-one is mentioning Richie Porte...
So, Fulsang and Bernal on the podium but no idea who else, Quintana maybe?
Richie Porte pah TVG is where it's at go Tejay 😉
Tejay has never impressed - though this season he does seem a little better than previously, so I hope to be proved wrong, it would make for much better racing and I don't mind being wrong in this kind of case.
I like Richie Porte but he just didn't seem close in the Dauphine, same for Kruijswijk
I’ll place a bet that neither TJvG or Porte last after the first rest day 🤣💥
Bardet.. it could be his only opportunity to win a Tour, the course is harder in the mountains but his training has been focussed on just that over the last year (I follow him on insta)
I haven’t seen the CCC roster yet, but does anyone know if GvA is riding?? If so, he’s a distinct possibility FTW.
I haven’t seen the CCC roster yet, but does anyone know if GvA is riding?? If so, he’s a distinct possibility FTW
GvA for GC? Big call that is. Be interesting to see what Van Aert can do I think.
I haven’t seen the CCC roster yet, but does anyone know if GvA is riding?? If so, he’s a distinct possibility FTW
I believe he is - but not a GC contender surely?
not with the climbing in this edition
Do you have an asterix against Yates and Carapaz because froome couldn’t be bothered with defending his Jersies ?
I'm not talking about what I think about it, I'm talking about what he would think about it, knowing he'd won the race but not necessarily against the best competition, who would have raced it but didn't through injury.
So Yates and Carapaz feel their wins are devalued by froome not defending his jersies then ?
The betting odds are interesting (and normally close to what actually happens). Some outside chances with huge odds. Pity I don't bet..
The bookies seem to agree that the top three are likely to be G, Bernal, Fuglsang. Putting a fiver on Nibali might make you a couple of hundred quid if he wins. Aru, TjvG, Dan Martin or Valverde hover around 100:1, if I'm reading this (very small) screen correctly! Go Dan! 😀
So Yates and Carapaz feel their wins are devalued by froome not defending his jersies then ?
That's exactly the question I'm asking, yes.
Putting a fiver on Nibali might make you a couple of hundred quid if he wins. Aru, TjvG, Dan Martin or Valverde hover around 100:1
£5 each way on Nibali or Martin doesn't seem like a bad bet actually. I don't think either will win but you wouldn't be surprised to see either on the podium.
Porte and Nairo have a habit of losing time being on the wrong time of a peleton split in the early stages of a race, if either are going to mount a proper challenge they need to be at the front. Porte's problem is that his team don't seem to make this happen, Nairo's issue is that his team always come with multiple contenders so they aren't focused.
I'd be surprised if Bernal is favoured over the guy who won it last year. DaveB decided in the TTT that the only rider they would stop for was froome (as designated team leader) and he wasn't in yellow at the time, G was; but they were prepared to sacrifice G for Froome. so I'd bet the same applies this year with Egan in 2nd chair.
I'd love to see Bardet win it but my head says not, TT is a weakness
Go on, I’ll ask. Why not?
It was hard enough watching the remainder of the Dauphine without Froome and the thought of both him and G not being in the Tour was too awful to contemplate. However has it actually been officially confirmed that G will ride in Le Tour or just speculation on here? Regardless I prefer the Vuelta.
I'd really like to see Bardet in GC contention this year, or at least on some podiums. I just seem to like the fella, dunno why, I might put a little bet on him just for fun.
I'd Be interested to see how Yates gets on too.
G will either have a Great tour or a disaster but nothing in-between so it should be exciting.
I haven’t seen the CCC roster yet, but does anyone know if GvA is riding?? If so, he’s a distinct possibility FTW
I believe he is – but not a GC contender surely?
Hmmm.. he’s a hard flatlander, he can climb a bit too.. He has a team capable of holding it all together too so he could get dragged up the hard bits and gain time on the flat bits. I think there’s more to him than his adventures in the Classics these days.
Aru? Well he has shown talent in the past, one of my favourite riders because I think he gives his all all the time. Talent notwithstanding it’s the Team he has around him and their aspirations, which always look squeezed at any one time.. so I think his best option is to forget team orders and go for winning stages.. and up some big lumps too.
Martin, again a favourite rider of mine. Sadly I think it’s stage wins only but boy I’d like him to be in the top ten at the end. Again, team support always lets him down or gear failure.
Mr BirdSong, well after years of miss direction and lack of winning he does seem to have gained “something” over the last year... Astana are slick and know what to do and when to do it, whether you like them for their background or not.
Pinot, IF and that’s a BIG IF Groupama can support him (and going by their current roster, they should be able to) then there is a distinct opportunity for him.. I do wonder whether he has the mental strength to push past the “I’m always in a group” mentality, that’s not a criticism because I think he’s very talented more an observation about recent tour placing(s) again it’s team support he needs.
So Yates and Carapaz feel their wins are devalued by froome not defending his jersies then ?
That’s exactly the question I’m asking, yes.
I don't think they've given it a moments thought, neither would Thomas if he wins again. You race against those who turn up, anyone else is an irrelevance.
I'd heard so little about Nibali I assumed he wasn't riding: so he's definitely in then? If so I'd never write him off.
Alaphillipe is my fave rider at the moment, but I'd take a bet that he'll never win the TdF - for a start, he's French.
Nibali had previously said he was only doing the TdF in a support capacity and maybe going for stage wins but seems to have rowed back on that having reflected on what was perhaps a sub-par Giro for him. I think he'll not have enough left in the tank though. GVA has absolutely zero chance of the GC. He's a stage hunter who can get over a few mountains but not as many as in a grand tour.
Aru will be an interesting watch this year now apparently he's had his illiac artery issue sorted. I predict a beautiful and emotional failure but he should animate some stages.
Its a shame that Bardet doesn't get the extra training he needs to get a better time in the TT.
I so enjoy watching Alaphillipe, De gendt, Dan Martin and now Wout Van Aert.
My favourite for the win is G or Adam Yates. But it's unlikely to be one of those 2. One can only hope.
I’d be surprised if Bernal is favoured over the guy who won it last year. DaveB decided in the TTT that the only rider they would stop for was froome (as designated team leader) and he wasn’t in yellow at the time, G was; but they were prepared to sacrifice G for Froome. so I’d bet the same applies this year with Egan in 2nd chair.
Froome is the strongest and most consistent grand tour rider of a generation, to the extent that if he were there, it would be a surprise for him not to win it.
Brailsford likes a rigid plan (Froome got no support when he crashed riding for Wiggins) but I suspect there is something of an open mind this year, especially with Geraint not having had much time racing.
As long as bardet or any Frenchman doesn't win then I'll be happy. Not because I have anything against the rider himself, but because the French supporters* have shown time and time again that they are a bunch of unsporting asshats.
*obviously not all of them.
Froome is the strongest and most consistent grand tour rider of a generation,
Arguably not. And would we even be having this debate if he rode for a different, weaker team who hadn’t helped him to those victories?
Of the current riders Froome has won 6 GTs (have I missed one out? Not counting Vuelta 2011). Nibali 4.
Contador has won 7. He is the strongest most consistent blah blah.. 😁
I’d suggest that Froome is a talented rider who had the luck to ride for the richest, most powerful team ever known in Grand Tour history.
I agree about Contador, he often seems to be forgotten when discussing theses thing.
Three of his victories were at the Vuelta, which doesn’t carry the same prestige as the Tour or the Giro, maybe that’s why? The Vuelta is sometimes my fave GT though.
... and in my mind he’s won 9.
It was hard enough watching the remainder of the Dauphine without Froome and the thought of both him and G not being in the Tour was too awful to contemplate.
There will still be loads of talent in the race, plenty to make it worth watching.
Long time Bardet fanboi here. Looking forward to it. Obvs ,I hope G does well ,plus Yates and Dan Martin - I'd particularly like to see him win another stage.
Personally, I can’t see past Bernal this year. G had his year, I think he peaked and was delighted by his win. But I think Bernal is on a different level. I’d rather like it to be Bardet of course. But it won’t.
Bernal is very young to have the endurance to win a 3 week tour.
It's the most open it's been in a long time, I can't see a single person I can think, yeah he's got it. All of them have great and bad days it seems.
I'm not sure what's happened with Porte at the moment, he's seems a way off.
I'm going for Nibali then, mostly because I love his attack attack style on the hills, he'll give it a go no matter what.
Bernal, wouldn't shock me at all. Him and Thomas will still be a strong force you can't count out. Apart from the crash you'd think Thomas will be at least as prepared this year as he was last year. So why can't he do it again? Heck, why not indeed
Nibali seems the best choice to me as he has the all-around ability and the experience.
2 points.
Point 1
I think Thibaut Pinot is in the form of his life and I'd love it if he can pull off the overall winner.
Point 2
It's about time we had a French winner. I read (a while ago) that Brailsford wanted to win the TDF with a French rider at some point, I think partly to prove how strong his team is (and tactically good he is) and partly to force the French public to if not love Sky/Ineos then to admire them. Of the current top French riders I think Brailsford could make TDF winner out of Pinot, Bardet and Alaphillip. Plus a certain Monsieur Alaphillip is out of contract soon, just saying.
Bernal looking very good in Swiss Tour but the opposition look much weaker than Dauphine I reckon.
@ian martin - I did see that Alaphillipe is out of contract at the end of this season and that "he knows who he wants to ride for".
I'd forgotten about Pinot. Is he consistent enough though?
Pinot lost his own way for a couple of years, talented and yet seems fragile.
I like his style, if he can get over whatever has been on his mind I do believe he’s easily top 5...
Fingers crossed for him.
Concerning Pinot's consistency, the same was labelled against Thomas before last year's TDF. I believe to win the Tour(or any Grand Tour) you need a large slice of luck despite how good you are, I just have a feeling that the stars are coming aligned for him. If it's not Pinot then it will be someone not even on people's radar like the year Carlos Sastre won.
Not seen enough of Bernal racing to judge his pedigree vs. GT, but has it even been stated that he'll have semi-protected status as "Plan B" (like GT last year)?
I'd back Geraint anyway - experience, knowing how to pace himself over three weeks and hopefully he's got his crashing out the way for the year now.
Agree Pinot is a good bet for the podium, Yates a dark-ish horse and Quintana strangely an unknown quantity now.
Looking forward to it actually.
Just discovered junior j’s best mate’s Mammy’s “maiden”name is Bernal. She is also Columbian. So now we are supporting him. 🙂
Alaphillipe
he's not out of contract, he just signed a 2 year extension with Deceuninck Quick Step
Bernal looked very good in Switzerland this week. I suspect he’ll do very well in France.
Carthy booking himself a ride on the Tour, I'd say.
Not seen enough of Bernal racing to judge his pedigree vs. GT, but has it even been stated that he’ll have semi-protected status as “Plan B” (like GT last year)?
I'm not sure it has, but generally Ineosky has pretty much always gone that way. If the leader has an issue and either drops out or falls back, the idea is that the second protected rider is still in a good position by virtue of not having been burned early in a stage or on a climb - domestiques get rotated, they might do a load of climbing one day then have a relatively easy time the next day so they can recover.
Last year G and Froome were nominally 'joint' leaders, but I think Froome was still the main leader until it became clear that G was stronger - they still bothered enough about him that Bernal dropped back on a mountain stage and towed him back up to the front group. In the past Richie Porte tended to be Froome's number two, but never really came through.
Given how well Bernal went last year and his form so far this year - just won the Tour de Suisse at a canter - he's the obvious call as back-up leader / second protected rider. Seeing as they've not even announced the Tour team yet it's more of an educated / semi-informed guess than anything else, but it'd be surprising if it didn't go that way.
Relative to G, Bernal's a better pure climber, not as good on flattish TTs though still only 20 seconds or so off Rohan Dennis yesterday, far less experienced and still learning about positioning etc. He seems to have a huge engine, particularly for a light rider - read somewhere that his VO2 Max is in the low 90s up around Lemond levels and also seems, based on the Tour last year, and his recent races, to be able to recover well after hard days and do it all again.
Descends well too - ex top-level junior mountain biker - and seems to have a really steady head on him. Also has a bit of real pure racing grit going on, there was a race last year when he was placed second going into the final day, behind Valverde I think, and rode like a nutter trying to make up the gap. Ended up crashing when someone went down in front of him, but there was something quite cool about how he refused to give up. Properly exciting rider, particularly on the big climbs where he's absolutely flying.
Finally comes across as very level headed and humble in interviews. They asked him after the win today if he thought he was one of the favourites for the Tour and he basically said he was happy to ride for Thomas and hey, he's only 22 and still learning.
So, not officially, but probably.