[Closed] TdF Stage 13 - The Final Hour [Spoilers]

Days gone by we'd have penned this one in as the proper start of the Tour. How times have changed. Sort of feels like we've had 12 one day classics in a row in terms of racing and drama!

Sticking my neck out:

Niballi attacks
He gets reeled back in (mainly by Porte)
Valverde then pops up and takes it by a few seconds after being inconspicuous all the way up

I'd quite like to see Porte put time into Valverde and the rest so he can concentrate on challenging Nibali and not worry too much about defending 2nd.

The flat section between Palaquit and Chamrousse doesn't seem to lend itself to a solo attack getting clear before the final climb so I imagine it'll be an attack on the last climb after setting a fast pace up Palaquit to wear out the domestiques.

I'm up for a break by Rodriguez on the last climb having missed out the other day.

I'd love to see an attack by an unknown French climber though.. 8)

Rodriguez in an early break that tops the first climb but does not quite beat them up the big one

yes, interesting one indeed.
my bet is not much will happen from the top GC on the penultimate climb, then once the final climb proper begins, the strategy will unfold.

who's team will drive it first though?

- Astana to ward off attacks, taking on the Sky tactics of the last tours?

- Sky to put the hurt on early with porte going long?

not sure- sky and movistar could 'use' astana's train early before making their own assault.

I for one love watching porte's open mouthed grin when he's putting the effort in, makes it look like he's enjoying it 😛

I think Valverde will wait for a few more days.

My road.cc fantasy team looking good today, Nibali, Porte, Bardet, Pinot, Roche, Purito.

Paid for it with a poor score yesterday though.

I've ridden up Chamrousse.
The only thing open at the top was a little cafe which served the biggest and nicest banana split ever. Was much needed after that climb!

The ride back down was insane although I was disappointed that my max was only 59mph. 60mph would have been nice.

Really hoping Porte starts eating into Nibali's time now.

So does Porte [b]have[/b] to eat into Nibali's lead today ? If Nibali puts time into him/other main rivals is it all over ?

I cannot see Porte going early, Brailsford has to be thinking damage control as if Porte blows up the race is totally over for the team and people will question his selection.

Rodriguez in an early break that tops the first climb but does not quite beat them up the big one

I'd go for this. Grabs the mountain points on the first one, but the last climb is too long for Purito.

Valverde is a bit of a dark horse. He's on form, kept out of trouble, and probably the only one in the top 10 who would take a big risk for the win.

Oh just found the STW Road.cc league - missed that somehow. Joining now....

So does Porte have to eat into Nibali's lead today ? If Nibali puts time into him/other main rivals is it all over ?

I cannot see Porte going early, Brailsford has to be thinking damage control as if Porte blows up the race is totally over for the team and people will question his selection.

Did you hear him on ITV last night? He basically said: 'I hope to put time on those _behind_ me'. Sounds like first priority is consolidate 2nd. Unless it's a bluff and Uncle Dave has a cunning plan.

Unless it's a bluff and Uncle Dave has a cunning plan.

After the disaster of losing Froome I suspect Uncle Dave would bite your hand off if you offered him a podium place for another of his riders. Will be all about consolidation and being in the right place in case anything happens to Nibali.

I agree, Nibali won't be losing time to Porte. But Porte might hope to gain time on those below him, which he is capable of doing. Really looking forward to tomorrow's stage, looks like a belter.

Valverde is a bit of a dark horse. He's on form, kept out of trouble, and probably the only one in the top 10 who would take a big risk for the win.

Valverde has never made the podium at the Tour and my guess a podium spot is not something he would risk lightly

I'm going for crash on the penultimate descent due to Nibali pressing hard

Greipel for the win - appaently he climbs really well

if Porte blows up the race is totally over for the team and people will question his selection.

Rodriguez won't attack on the first climb. He might jump off the front of the main group to mop up the points there but he needs to be in the mix at the finish. It HC and a summit finish so the points are doubled. So the winner get 50 points today. His current total is only 51.

Valverde has never made the podium at the Tour and my guess a podium spot is not something he would risk lightly

You're probably right. My thinking was his palmares are probably more impressive than most of the others in the top 10, and at 34 (and with Quintana in the team) this is probably his last chance at the Tour.

You're probably right.

I'd agree. A tour podium would be his best post ban result.

I don't get the feeling the Porte will attack either. But I can see Sky riding up to Chamrouse 2012/Wiggins style, very measured, focus on the watts and TT up the mountain. Or at least they might try. The question will be weather Nibali and others can stay with this pace to the top or will get dropped. Allowing Porte to gain time.

There won't be Froome/Contador style attacks.

Guys, quick Qu.
Am I being a div...but: On the Cycling News mobile App I can flick between news feed, stats (groups and time gaps etc) profile and map with up to date tracking. WHen I go to http://live.cyclingnews.com/ on my desktop I can only see the news update. I cant find the other stuff. Is it there?

And the TDF site doesnt to a map tracker does it?
http://www.letour.fr/le-tour/2014/us/live/aso/

So does Porte have to eat into Nibali's lead today ? If Nibali puts time into him/other main rivals is it all over ?

If Porte is serious about being in contention for the win, the only way he can do it is to get a few seconds here or there, I can't see Nibali leaving himself open to one big attack on one day. I think the only way is constant little chipping away at it.

Did you hear him on ITV last night? He basically said: 'I hope to put time on those _behind_ me'. Sounds like first priority is consolidate 2nd.

Yep, that's the other option - accept that, baring massive disaster for Nibali, Porte will get 2nd and just look to consolidate/defend that.

Second for Porte would still be a brilliant result for him and Sky.

Navarro out. Noooooooo...

That really is my fantasy team screwed.

I would imagine that Sky's tactics will be to keep trying to chip away at Nibali, or at least keep in touch, so that Porte maintains his podium place, with the possibility that Nibali could always have a bad day and open the door for Porte. And there's still the ITT to come - who knows, Nibali could crack, or fall off. It's a bike race, so anything could happen (cf. Cav, Froome, Contador, Talansky etc).

yeah, I've come to think Porte will just mark nibali all the way to the Hautacam stage.

Maybe have a couple of digs here and there, but maintain position, and try to put it on from the bottom of that final climb, after maybe softening astana up on the Tourmalet.

Then, try to gain more time back on the TT. (Wasn't that how Sastre won it a few years ago, basically getting all his time on one mountain stage, then coming up with the goods in the TT)?

valverde on the other hand, and the others in top 5, could try something else.

Thanks for the Porte opinions, I don't know much about road riding and tactics but this makes sense to me.

Slightly odd saying on Eurosport that this area of France is stricken with Norovirus like it's an epidemic... It's the most common stomach bug in the UK and most of Europe. I guess they have to fill the air somehow.

Carlton Kirby mentioning that its hot about every 30 seconds.

I think Valverde will wait for a few more days.

My road.cc fantasy team looking good today, Nibali, Porte, Bardet, Pinot, Roche, Purito.

Paid for it with a poor score yesterday though.

You are in for a double good day....

I forgot to put my transfers in this morn ..... school boy ... grrr

I would imagine that Sky's tactics will be to keep trying to chip away at Nibali

Porte won't be able to "chip" away at Nibali like Froome or Contador would. For those two riders the tactics are basically to make the race hard in the run up to the final 2-3km so that everyone is tired. Then they do one decisive attack at speed to get a gap and maintain that to the summit to gain time. This way they can steadily build a lead every summit finish without having to repeatedly attack from a long way out and risk cracking. Nibali rode like this to the Plank of Beautiful Girls

Porte isn't this type of rider. He doesn't seem to have the fast kick like the other 3. He is more like Wiggins where he can sustain a very high power output (w/kg) for a long time. So his tactics will be to ride up the mountain as fast as he can at a steady pace. He will hope that Nibali can't sustain the same power output as him and is therefore dropped without Porte having to accelerate sharply.

I can't see Sky waiting until Hautacam to try this. In both the tours they have won they have picked the first stage that suited them and gone full gas. In 2012 it was Le Plance de Belle Filles, 2013 it was Ax 3 Domaine. This year Brailsford has stated a number of times that the climb to Chamrouse really suits Porte so hopefully they will light it up from the base of the climb and see who can hack the pace.

The only risk is that Porte is one of the ones who can keep up or that he doesn't have a lieutenent of the quality of Froome or himself so he becomes isolated to early in the climb. Nieve should be up to it though.

Is that a pony tail, two in fact ?

EDIT: yes, that's weird [url= http://www.letour.com/le-tour/2014/us/riders/cofidis-solutions-credits/mate-mardones-luis-angel.html ]Mardones Profile[/url]

De Marchi pulling away. If he wins the stage (big if) I would love to see Sagan's face at the dinner table. 'There you go Pete, it's easy, I don't know what the fuss is about' :0

That could have been worse... but looks nasty nontheless

Was wondering where Sean had gone, though he does sometimes shut down for minutes at a time. Probably made the calculation and went for a coffee!

"Mate is a rat. He didn't work well in the break but he's going to pay for it in the next few days," L'Equipe quoted him as saying.

Jerome Pineau doesn't like him much! Not sure if it was his ridiculous rats tail in his hair or the fact he was sandbagging on Stage 6?

The text reports make this interesting, watching it must be another level!

Surely now is the time for sky to do something if they want yellow?

Valverde looks keen. Kangert's not looking great, fireworks approaching?

Surely now is the time for sky to do something if they want yellow?

Mate is a rat

I think he actually said Mate est un raton. "Raton" translates as wheelsucker.

So the sentiment was the same but the statement was less of an insult. (Assuming you'd rather be called a wheelsucker than a rat!)

nice shot of some proper bikes there ....

Wait.... I reckon if Nieve is feeling good, he'll let Porte go a couple of Kms from the summit and not before. Pinot's the one to watch though.

porte going backwards 🙁

Porte is done in this tour I think. If he can't go up today, it's only going to get worse

Porte dropped with still 12km to go. Not looking good.

Porte just doesn't have it.

And if he beat Froome up the Col de Madone then maybe Froome didn't have it either and was glad to have an excuse to climb off.

Nibali wins it. Race for 2nd place...

Here he goes!

valverde attacks! Nibbles follows

So what has happened with sky this year? They all look less fit than most of the other big teams. I know the main contender is out but it just looks like the was never any support available.

Just heard about Porte and seen comments here. I agree with @atlas - Porte looks toast for the Tour now, he's not going to make the podium

EDIT 2 mins down on Nibali - I stick my finger in the air and say he's going to lose 4 mins today. SO much for making an impression

And I have to say it, Wiggins was deemed to be in worse form than Porte ?

Anus horibilius for team Sky. Something is up. They don't seem to have the strength when it matters and their superstars have pulled out of a lot of races.

Ironically Wiggins is their only rider who set out his objectives at the start of the season and has actually achived them so far. (Compete at P-R and win the TOC, still has the worlds TT to go)

I'm not saying Wiggo should be at the tour, he handn't trained for it, but maybe it's telling that he has done his own thing this year rather than being with the "climbing group".

Nibbles goes on the offensive!

shark attack!

Valverde and Pinot look focused on each other, shame!

edit: although the gap's shrinking...

edit2: and Nibali accelerates.

EDIT 2 mins down on Nibali - I stick my finger in the air and say he's going to lose 4 mins today. SO much for making an impression

surely another stage for Nibali!

Chapeau to Nibali, he could so easily just play it safe. Would have loved to have seen him battle it out with Contador and Froome.

Nibali looking more that human! *cough in tinfoil hat*

Come on Nibbles

How old is Thibaut, I don't believe they've mentioned it (enough times)

"Ee by gum" written on the road... 🙂

Richie Porte hanging off the back @6mins+ maybe Sky will release Mr G for a stage win 🙂

So where has Nibbles suddenly got this form from? It wasn't long ago people were writing his chances off...

POP. What a day for Porte to have Un Sans Jour. Every 3 week tour he seems to have one. The question is whether he's able to have a good day before the end of the Tour.

Re Sky having a bad time:

I just have a horrible feeling this is like the post Festina era all over again. I sincerely hope not but looking at the new lease of life several riders seem to be having lately, its a worry.

maybe Sky will release Mr G for a stage win

No point in not doing so. He was no help at all today on the final climb. Maybe Stage 5 might have been his opertunity though. Nothing from now on really suits him.

Nibali form is making the absence of Froome & Contador an even bigger loss, what a spectacle it could have been.

revise to 7

Nibali form

He wet up PdBF slower than Froome did

I just have a horrible feeling this is like the post Festina era all over again. I sincerely hope not but looking at the new lease of life several riders seem to be having lately, its a worry.

Maybe but look at another way. Maybe the JTL incident, the Lienders incident, the Henao issue and the apparent stepping up of Sky's internal testing regime have meant Sky haven't been able to keep doing what they were doing to win previously.

I don't actually belive this but it just highlights why relative perfromance is a really crap indicator of doping and how you are looking at it with very blinkered Sky are like saints attitude.

And I have to say it, Wiggins was deemed to be in worse form than Porte ?

Partly but also if you listen to pre tour interviews a lot of it was to do with team morale and cohesion. You've got 9 guys racing together for 3 weeks. Any friction is amplified and the team needs to work together to win. Wiggo/Froome not getting on was going to be detrimental.

Also you don't go to the Tour with a backup plan if you intend to win. You take a risk and put all your eggs in one basket. To put wiggins in as a backup at the expense of team performance is a bit like asking a sprinter to hold back and cover the brakes in case there is a crash - they'd just lose.

You also need to consider that Sky are now down to 7. The loss of the team leader will have knocked them and Porte wasn't protected for the first 4.5 stages. Different job being a domestique compared to responding to attacks. I imagine he has trained to diesel engine his way up hills rather than follow attacks.

So where has Nibbles suddenly got this form from? It wasn't long ago people were writing his chances off...

Where has the multiple grand tour winner and current national champion suddenly got his form from?

Seems like he has not raced much this year for a reason as he looks the strongest and freshest

Nothing from now on really suits him.

I imagine he has trained to diesel engine his way up hills rather than follow attacks.

Couldn't even do that though could he!

[i]he has trained to diesel engine his way up hills rather than follow attacks. [/i]

not sure on that - his role was to keep Froome in the main group on climbs, he couldn't have done that today.

portlyone - Member

Nibali looking more that human! *cough in tinfoil hat*

Not even some back of a fag packet kg/watts calculations? Poor.

Gaps today are huge.

Lets hope Nibali can do it as Valverde would not be a popular winner.

Can't see how bad he looks, only the text tells me he's not going well. but it is a fair comment - he wouldn't have been much use.

I know the latest thinking is that unless you are a natural climber you do what wiggins does and limit your losses. Overall if you TT your way up you will lose less than if you try and follow natural climbers. But I though Porte was a natural climber...

I hope nibbles is clean. He's looking impressive but then no more so that seeing Wiggins/Martin in a TT stage demolish everyone else.