[Closed] So, who's gonna win the TDF 2011 then?

Heart says Voeckler. But think Evans will win

Andy Schleck, a brilliant ride today and hope to see another brilliant ride tomorrow.

Evans - can't see anyone other than frank being fresher than him and can't see them letting the schlecks get team mates ahead again tomorrow. Frank isn't up to it, or he'd have gone sooner and faster today. I think Evans is prob the most willing to suffer (TV aside - but I think he's gone)

Evans FTW... Schleck has gotta be shattered after today surely?

i think schleck too. doesn't cadel need to attack tomorrow? he kinda did today... but not to take the lead, merely to limit the damage schleck had done

Agree with stratobiker.

Would love it to be voeckler, but i think it will be evans.

Who will get green though? Cav needs to make it inside the limit tomorrow

Will come down to the timetrial and andy will bottle it.
Imagining frank will be attacking tomorrow after he said in his interview at the end.

i don't think Evans had an easy day today though, who did the chasing? I do think Evans can do it as he is the better time trialist. I hope that Voeckler gets a podium for his efforts.

I'm thinking Evans too.

Would be a shame if it all came down to the TT. It's been a great tour this year.

SB

Voeckler.

Shleck was empty at the finish and won't take any more time tomorrow. Evans can't attack - and is too far back on Voeckler for the win.
(I have no idea how their time-trialling compares)

Superb tour!

Evans did the final time trial in 56:48 when he did it in the Dauphine. (Same course)

looking at the full results. [url= http://www.letour.fr/2011/CDD/LIVE/us/300/classement/index.html ]Grenoble-Grenoble[/url]

I can see the time trial being close, and i mean the win being seconds either way. It is not a flat course and it is a very short course.

Order after tomorrow to be Andy, Frank, Tommy. Final result after TT Cadel, Andy, Frank (I said Tommy 3rd in the other thread but my head has taken over from my heart now).
I don't have clue really but I do know that it has been a great tour with many heroic performances.

Sadly Evans. My least favourite rider in the TdF this year.

Tomorrow will be close unless Frank decides to go for it on the Galibier. Otherwise Evans will put time into them at the TT.

Frank. Break away on the hard side of the Galibier (the hardest climb I've ever done), solo down the 48km descent with a team mate up front and then ride up the Alp. Simple.....well...sort of...

Could be another great day's racing

CE only needs to keep the Schlecks in check really in the "knowledge" that he is better against the clock. My opinion of CE has mellowed over the last 2 years. I thought he honoured the World Champs jersey last year. He doesn't attack very much though but to be fair that to a large degree is the state of Grand Tour riding for the faves in recent years. AS gave us a glimpse of the pre 90's today. Head says CE for the final Yellow, heart says AS(60%)/TV(40%).

frank will break away tomorrow, evans will lazily respond like he always seems to, andy will just keep up but essentially conserve a wee bit of energy while cadel takes the brunt, andy's fresh for the TT, cadel is wiped out - andy for the win!

My opinion of CE has mellowed over the last 2 years

He seems to be in a fairly shit team, too. less well supported than the others so does more for himself

To close to call without knowing what shape AS will be in - looked like he buried himself today tbh. He's the people's champion after that, but Cadel showed brass balls himself.

CE gets stick for wheel-sucking, but I think you just have to acknowledge that he doesn't have the talent of an AS or AC in the big mountains and give him credit for hanging in there - he's hard as nails in that respect. He could never do what AS did today, but he's ridden a hard tour in his own way and I'd like to see him win on Sunday.

Tim Henman

Cadel earnt a lot of respect today (and indeed over the rest of the Tour - breaking away from the Spanish double act on a downhill!) wouldn't be at all disappointed to see him win, which isn't something I think I'd have said in previous years.

As said before, Evans seems to have to work for himself with little or no help from BMC. I kinda like his quirkiness and wouldnt mind him winning. I'd love Voeckler to get it too but dont think he can hold his slipping lead much longer, which is a shame although he could still surprise everyone…….what a ride this year tho. Gone off the Schlecks a little since the silly downhill comments but that ride today from Andy deserved a medal!! "What a great job of work" lol. (this phrase has actually started to bug me) Why he wasnt chased earlier I cant figure out……they obviously thought he'd gone too early and they'd catch him. Not sure if Andy's TT pace is enough to pull a gap on Evans or even Voeckler………all depends on tomorrows climbs I guess………can Contador pull a miracle from his legs? Is his Tour over? (cue pill popping comments) So, my heart wants Voeckler or Evans but I think Andys gonna bag it somehow!…..Um I kinda went on a bit there………sorry 🙂

Too close to call, if Frank goes for it tomorrow then that could play into Tommy's hand as it doesn't look like Cadel can beat him on the mountains, at least not be enough to take the win, then it comes down to the TT.

Very exciting!

Frank to go for it tomorrow - if he doesn't he's a write off. Gain 30s to 1 minute it's a 4 way battle in the TT (though advantage Cadel unless the others take any time).

Tough call now, would love Voeckler but cant quite see it , Andy has gone from hero to zero with me after moaning about downhill finishes, and after struggling on Tuesday and blasting like today i feel his chemist got it right.Great tour so far though long may it continue.why let a guy with that much quality ride away from the peleton? seems as bad a decision as all wiggins team sat by him lying on the ground wondering if he might carry on, surely leave one guy with him if he gets going then the rest slow down?

I don't know why, but I've always liked Evans since it was him vs Martinez in XC racing.

Unfortunately Andy will win. Evans couldn't pull it out of the bag in 2008 against Sastre and I doubt he will do it this year.

TV [b]must[/b]get himself on the podium now? Maybe 3rd to Evans and one Schleck or another?

Was sorry to see AC blow like that. Thought he was gonna do better.

Re AS's attack yesterday - I really hope we're not reading about blood transfusions etc etc in 3 months time. I'm on the edge of divorcing the tour for its previous dishonesty as it is 🙁

No dopers this year, one fellow chucked out for taking some laxative or sommat that may mask it, but none confirmed. I reckon it's pretty clean, hence Bertie struggling! I don't like him, although his descent with Sanchez was ballsy. The itv commentary missed it, but Sanchez went into one of the switchbacks with at least 6" clear daylight under his back wheel, fair play that Contador then said they weren't taking risks, testicles like basketballs!

Evans can't attack - and is too far back on Voeckler for the win.

15 seconds? Sadly he'll wipe that out! As he's ahead of AS all he's gotta do is sit in.

I suspect a dull stage today with everyone licking their wounds, AC will attack to try and prove something. CE will take it in the TT. Shame I really want to see Voeckler win - he'd better not lose by the 30 seconds he spent in that car park yesterday!

if there were only two stages left (the TT and Paris) Evans would be a cast iron certainty. He's easily a couple of minutes better timtrialer than either schleck.

but we got alp d'uez today so its still uncertain imo. if andy can get another minute, over evans, from somewhere then its his.
Don't read too much into how knackered Andy looked yesterday, evans was well beat up at the finish, did you see the video of him trying to get his breath back?

Vockler is done unfortunately. He looked like he was going to throw up for the last 30K yesterday. Superb effort. Today will be very interesting. Close call but perhaps Evans but would quite like Andy to take it.

Evans will be glued to AS today. If the schleks had any idea they would 1-2 Evans today until he cracks. then again their amstel gold showed that they are clueless. AS time trial abilities are crap.Look at his final TT last year. FS is much better (tour de suisse last year). Dont like schleks but that was a ballsy ride yesterday. Evans dragging them all back on his own was also impressive. There will be fireworks today , its just too hard a stage for their not to be.

Come on Evans !! (he was a MTB er after all)

Oops, I was thinking CE was still ahead of AS, ignore half my post! Still think today will be anticlimatic, lots of sitting and watching, some chancer will win, maybe Vanenert.

Andy Schleck as long as he continues to channel the spirit of Floyd Landis either that or Cadel.

Much as I admire Andy Schleck's risk-taking in yesterday's stage, I feel I have to point out that in the last few years, every time we've seen such an exploit, it's been followed very closely by a drugs scandal. Think Floyd Landis, Lance Armstrong, Pantani, Chiappucci and so on........

There's only really Evans that could feel comfortable with his position today [not that he ever actually looks comfortable at any time 🙂 ]

So he's just going to try to mark any threat, so no change there then

Anyone else with aspirations of yellow in Paris will feel the need to try something if they can, they can't just do an Evans and follow all day
if they're all running on empty Evans [the miserable ****] will end up winning out

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Shleck may be a crap timetrialist but this is not a british dual carriage way course. I really don't think it is as clear cut as some.

Podium:-

AS
CE
FS

Shame that Voekler will finish 4th and miss out on the podium.

Contandor has to got for it today, try and do what Schleck did yesterday, he has no other option. Otherwise it's a very lame defence of his title and even if he's cleared of dopping the doubts over his other wins will persist. So it should be quite an interesting day.

Contandor has to got for it today, try and do what Schleck did yesterday, he has no other option.

Here are some clues as to my favourite

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Everyone else looked ****ed at the end yesterday

AS and FS will rip it open on Alp d'Huez (along with Contador I think)

The Alp is so much harder and steeper (and shorter) than the other climbs where the natural climbers can pull serious time on the others. Nothing will happen on Galibier from the GC contenders. The huge DH then flat would wipe any gains out.

Its all about ADH today and my money is on the Scleck's.

Cadel has to win the tour not just be a hard chaser (could have been different if he had a body guard like TV)

Bring it on!

It was a huge ride from AS yesterday, but, the way Cuddles pretty much pulled the gap back on his own deserves huge credit. My thought is of the 4 GC contenders (AS, FS, TV, CA) all but FS had a very hard day yesterday for different reasons which in theory means they will not be good for a big attack today.

So, FS for the stage win today, the other 3 to basically sit and watch each other. I think Sanchez may have a crack today but it would have to be soemthing huge for him to be back in contention.

So, Cuddles to win, FS 2nd as I think AS will be blow after yesterday, AS 3rd as whilst he is blown from yesterday, TV is even worse.

And does anyone else think that CE needs a good domestique like Pierre Rolland to help him? It would have made his day yesterday so much easier.

[i]Nothing will happen on Galibier from the GC contenders. The huge DH then flat would wipe any gains out.[/i]

did you not watch yesterday ?

Too close to call between Evans and Andy S I reckon. I don't think Evans is going to do him in the TT by that much of a margin, and he probably ended up giving it about the same effort as AS yesterday when he pulled the gap back.

Frank might be lurking and could do something, and I reckon Voeckler had his last hurrah yesterday.

I wasn't much of an Evans fan before this tour but I've been very impressed by him so far and still have him as favourite to win.

It was a hugely impressive ride from AS yesterday, but he's still an odious turd of a man. I was also very surprised to see that level of performance from him given it was only a few days ago that he cracked on a category 2 climb. Obviously the rest day since must have done him some good...

It'll be interested to see how Voeckler gets on today but he looked properly broken at the end of that stage yesterday. I'd love to see him on the podium but can't really see it happening.

FS has to attack today if he wants to have a chance of winning himself.

Yes. I did. Its not the same I think. Just don't think any GCers will attack on it. Others (AC, SS maybe)

There was very little flat yesterday. There is a reasonably significant flat before ADH which is normally very windy.

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AS time trial abilities are crap. Look at his final TT last year.

If you look at the 4 individual TTs in the last two tours, he's been within 30s of Cadel at each (apart from the final one last year where he was 5m ahead but that was cadel's problem not andy getting great). So if Andy goes into the TT with his minute on Cadel intact, my money is on Luxembourg, not Australia.

It was a hugely impressive ride from AS yesterday, but he's still an odious turd of a man. I was also very surprised to see that level of performance from him given it was only a few days ago that he cracked on a category 2 climb. Obviously the rest day since must have done him some good...

Jesus, its a 3 week marathon. People come and go with form and feeling of energy. It is possible for people who don't dope to feel shit one day and have a rest day and recover.

1 Thomas Voeckler (Fra) Team Europcar 79:34:06
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:00:15
3 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:01:08
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:01:12

Who knows. Seriously, how good is that! Two days left and one of four (probably three really) riders could win and we really won't know who until the end of the TT unless someone (AC?) really goes on the rampage today or all the three other contenders have a really bad day today

p.s. I HOPE people attack on the Galibier, just don't think they will

did you not watch yesterday ?

yeah but look at the scales of those two profiles

is that a giant "huck to carpark" at about 90km today ? - cool

TV for the 360 with flip win on that

one of four (probably three really) riders could win

i think evans is in the best position right now. he's riding very well reminds me of lemond, probably the strongest and not taking any risks tactically with a very good tt card still to play. i still want voeckler to win but think he'll do well to get on the podium. i expect some tired legs today, would surprised if anyone can pull out a ride like schleks.......except maybe the other schlek.

I reckon evans will have all available hands at the front to stop any friends of schleck getting into a breakaway without them and that'll mean no madness on the galibier from the leaders. Team's job will be to deliver evans to the final climb in contact and hopefully sheltered from doing any work beforehand

I think it'll be a straight race up the final climb - fast from the bottom
My guess is that andy is ****ed and evans is more stubborn of the two. For me, whole race depends on frank, err, maybe - will he help andy get up or go for his own gains ?

It was a hugely impressive ride from AS yesterday, but he's still an odious turd of a man. I was also very surprised to see that level of performance from him given it was only a few days ago that he cracked on a category 2 climb. Obviously the rest day since must have done him some good...

Jesus, its a 3 week marathon. People come and go with form and feeling of energy. It is possible for people who don't dope to feel shit one day and have a rest day and recover.

And did he really crack anyway? I don't recall it all going down the drain for him at the end of the stage.

[i]Did you not read the bit about the huge downhill and flat? Descent of the Izoard yesterday 17km, with the next climb starting almost straight after. Descent of the Galibier today 36km, with another 10km before Alpe d'Huez starts. [/i]

there was a long 10km 2-4% gradient run in before the climb proper yesterday into a nasty head wind and for a poor descender AS didn't lose to much time to the pack on the descent. I'm not saying they will attack I'm saying its not, as proven yesterday (even though andy thought they would), certain you can pull them back.

I reckon evans will have all available hands at the front to stop any friends of schleck getting into a breakaway without them and that'll mean no madness on the galibier from the leaders. Team's job will be to deliver evans to the final climb in contact and hopefully sheltered from doing any work beforehand

But does he actually have the team to do that?

After that (galibier) he's on his own for schuure

I think the entire outcome will depend on Frank. He's the freshest of the 4 and has the ability over Cadel or Tommy to put some big attacks in. He'll either put good time in like Andy did or they'll chase him down and tire themselves out even more.

If Frank attacks I'd put podium AS, CD, FS.

If he has a mellow day it'll be CD, AS, FS.

I'd love Tommy to bury himself in the TT though. He deserves to be stood on that podium.

Its all good. Yesterday was a surprise attack. You think that anyone would let a GC contender get to ADH first?

ADH mass TT with both Schlek's going for it is where my money rests.

my feeling is that AS wants the yellow jersey today so that means for him it's attacking Tommy on Alp-d'euz and then riding the TT of his life tommorrow.

Andy
Frank
Cadel
Tommy

In that order.

"Contandor has to got for it today, try and do what Schleck did yesterday, he has no other option."

I don't believe he has either the legs or the team.

and that'll mean no madness on the galibier from the leaders

i want cadel to win 🙂 probably one of the shreks will win it though.

monsieur voeckler obviously overdid it on the pain o chocolates yesterday morning

im confident that if he rides on just a coissant today he can get himself back in front.