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Was in a bike shop the other day and eavesdropping on a salesman chatting to a customer.
He was firmly of the opinion that Shimano/SRAM et al would be abandoning mechanical gears in the same way they have almost entirely abandoned rim brakes.
As the owner of 4 x 11 speed, mechanical geared, rim braked, road/gravel bikes this obviously got me panicking 😬
Any industry insiders with an opinion on how long e.g. mechanical 105 groupsets might be available for?
I think all I need on the good road bike is a new mech and cassette plus a set of shifters, that way I'll have drivetrain options that will probably outlast the frame (I'd be happy to get 5-7 years out of it).
On the 'summer' gravel I am committed to rim brakes and therefore mechanical shifting, so again am pretty much committed to 11 speed GRX or Ultegra. Feel like I should be grabbing a spare GRX rear mech sooner rather than later before they all go 12spd/Di2?
Or will the likes of Microshift step in to support the spares market in future?
I guess I'll eventually replace the rim brake CX bike with a disc braked equivalent with whichever 1x system is available at the time, so I'll maybe get one more winter/set of rims out of it 😂
nonsense up selling tactics surely?
"cable operated gears won't be around for much longer. You need to spend another grand for electric shifting or your bike will be obsolete by the end of next week".
It's just not going to happen.
You might not get dura ace or the like but the there will always be options.
I won't worry, my guess is they'll stop developing mechanical groupsets, but continue manufacturing the current ones, and all the spares you need to keep them working.
That's got me thinking though... are there any derailleurs that a primarily electronic, but can have a cable attached as a fall back strategy?
Merry Christmas 🎅
There’s no chance of this happening. The general public can’t even oil chains or pump up tyres on their bike. The idea of £500+ uplift in cost and needing to charge it before it would work make it a no-go
Oh no I can't get spares for my mechanical gears.😬
Sadly I am now going to have to buy a new electronic shifting bike/groupset ... 🤣
I'm joking
Probably 🤔
I have more faith in the future compatibility of current mechanical components generally than current electronic components.
nonsense up selling tactics surely?
Possibly, but realistically if the customer was already looking at high end road/gravel, us there much choice now but electric gears and discs (genuine question, out of touch with the latest complete build road/gravel options).
Am otherwise reassured by replies, although I wonder how 'low' you'll have to go to find compatible components in e.g 5 years. I'm sure I'll be happy with Cues or whatever the 'bottom end' becomes.
Ta
He was firmly of the opinion that Shimano/SRAM et al would be abandoning mechanical gears
Jut this year both SRAM and Shimano bought out brand new mechanical systems Transmission, and Cues/Linkglide. Shimano's top electronic groupset is still wired 11 speed (on non e-bike) they can't even keep up with SRAM in that respect, let alone give up all their mechanical groupsets as well.
in the same way they have almost entirely abandoned rim brakes.
Not really comparable I think, discs were obviously orders of magnitudes better in a way that still kept them simple enough to manufacture cheaply and be looked after by competent home/shop mechanic. electronic gears are not [yet] in that same category.
Obvious answer is singlespeed.
As others have touched on, there’s still plenty of places to find 7-11 speed kit even if you need to look at Microshift, Miche and the like.
us there much choice now but electric gears and discs (genuine question, out of touch with the latest complete build road/gravel options).
Most big manufacturers still(currently)make a slightly lower end build with mechanical.
Two I've bought in the last few years that still do so would be the giant propel which can be had at the pointy 8grand end with full electric groupsrt or 5 grand with a mechanical group set.
Likewise salsa do the cutthroat in SRAM axs or grx810.
I bought the ultegra propel and the grx 810 cutthroat seemed like the working mans option.
nonsense up selling tactics surely?
“cable operated gears won’t be around for much longer. You need to spend another grand for electric shifting or your bike will be obsolete by the end of next week”.
That makes no sense at all
Still running 30 year old 8 speed Dura Ace and 600/Ultegra on two road bikes - should, in the very unlikely event that something breaks, or get's crash damaged, I'll pop on ebay for a replacement. Got 10 speed 105 on the CX bike and 10 speed on two MTB's.
My Dura Ace is Uniglide sprockets, I have a number of 'original' spares, but have cut the wider tab down off HG sprockets.
You'll be fine.
One thing I do it serch ebay for chainrings for my two MTB's as the SRAM 2x10 rings are £100 for the big ring, and they often come up on ebay for £50. My shimano 3 x 8 chainset uses an unusual BCD so again, I keep an eye out for chainrings coming on ebay. Just got a used one for £4 and a brand new one for £37.
I kinda wish I'd stockpiled a couple of decent 10s road cassettes pre-covid as they were still available but obviously just whatever was in stock and no longer. So now I'm running cheap cassettes, it makes little practical difference other than the shifting is t quite as accurate as Shimano.
'Groupsets' I don't see much point in stockpiling, by the time the STI's start to die (which I think my 7800s might be, they kept jamming this year) they're so obsolete it's basicly the same price to get modern stuff.
Road bikes I think it makes sense to keep going indefinitely as it takes 20 years to go obsolete* to the point where you genuinely notice some benefit in a new bike. MTBs it's more like 10 years, and frames/forks have a much more limited lifespan. I've got a 'luddite' singlespeed for trashing over the winter which probably helps with keeping the 'nice' stuff going untill it's due replacement.
* think about it:
80s steel bike wouldn't have looked properly obsolete untill aluminium bikes dropped quill stems ~2000.
90s bikes didn't look properly outdated untill carbon became the default arround 2010.
2000s bikes didn't look outdated untill 2020 when QRs dissapered and everything got disk brakes.
The only thing I have stockpiled is 9 speed rapid rise rear derailleurs which I prefer with my bar end shifter tourers. Two or three on the shelf. Still second hand examples on eBay but who knows how worn out they are?
Probably as new. It seemed the majority of folk buying new bikes with us- had us remove them when new.
Judging by your own post surely you should be more concerned with your rim brakes quote;would be abandoning mechanical gears in the same way they have almost entirely abandoned rim brakes
Having heard or overheard that I would of immediately thought what an absolute load of rubbish and ignored it
I certainly wouldn't of needed a post on the subject
Just nonsensical
On a separate note Im amazed there's still the need for saleman or should I say the money for them
I think the salesman is talking out of his hoop.
My two favourite bikes use Dura ace 7800 and 9120
I’ve got a good stash of parts for both except chainsets as they don’t fail ? Opps Shimano recall. <br /><br />
cheaper parts will be available for a long time for both bikes but I like what I have and want to keep them the same. <br /><br />
just have to keep looking and still some bargains around
My two favourite bikes use Dura ace 7800 and 9120
I've still got a road bike with 7800. Hadn't really considered stockpiling anything partly because I very rarely use it and partly because having shed loads of money tied up in a load of parts that sit around gathering dust until the offchance that they're needed doesn't sit right with me.
My Shand Stooshie (drop bars) uses modified SRAM levers for hyd brake + cable to the Rohloff hub.
I sometimes wonder if I should but a CoMotion shifter as a piece of insurance in case I can't get the brake lever shifters in the future (eg if I bust one in a crash). But that's £200.
Meant to add I do have spare Shimano 1" cartridge headset bearings and a whole Dura Ace 7400 headset (duplicate order many years ago). The 7400 cranks will never break.
The current Dura Ace and Ultegra are now DI2 disc brake only
105 is disc brake only but availible as mechanical or Di2 at the momment, can see this going DI2 only in a couple of years
There will always be work arounds using non series components or components from third party manfactuers
Mechanical shifting will never fully disapear, it will still be used on lower spec/normal bikes
Rim brake wheels on the other hand are only going to get rarer, especially ones designed for proper road bikes
Obviously the answer is "Singlespeed it's the future".
Plus the country needs more bearded weirdos 🙂
105 is disc brake only but availible as mechanical or Di2 at the momment, can see this going DI2 only in a couple of years
They've only just released new 12sp mechanical 105, that'll be around for a long time yet.
You can still pick up 11sp mechanical (inc the rim brake version) pretty cheap online.
They’ve only just released new 12sp mechanical 105, that’ll be around for a long time yet.
You can still pick up 11sp mechanical (inc the rim brake version) pretty cheap online.
Shimano tends to update groupsets around every 3-4 years so id expect 105 to go DI2 only by 2026
DI2 is now 14 years old, hopefully Shimano will eventually go truely wireless with DI2 like Sram have with AXS
At some point in the foreseeable future I reckon You won't be able to get mechanical Ultegra/XT/Force/X0 or higher, but honestly Bowden cable actuated gears will be a thing at the more affordable end of the market for a good long while yet.