[Closed] Likelihood of discounted 2020 bikes?

Imo, slim to no chance until Jan next year.

I'd only wait a short while if a new 2021 model is expected imminently, for example, the new Boardman Limited Edition 8.9c with 105 looks good. As does the adv 8.9 with grx hydraulic discs, both could be very popular c2w scheme purchases at sub £1k.

From what I can gather from talking to LBS owners theres barely any 2020 stock to be had at all, let alone discounted

Not a chance.

Unless you happen to be exceedingly tall or exceedingly short - nae chance.

(And that was what LBS in next village told me several weeks ago about even getting hold of a new bike.)

Imo, slim to no chance until Jan next year.

This.  I know a senior Sales manager in a well know wholesaler/distributor and they are doing in excess of 10 x their numbers, and struggling to get stock in to fill the shelves fast enough.

Very much a sellers market.

However - next year or two theirs going to be a shit load of Ebay bargains I'd expect.

Up to a couple of weeks ago I was working part time building bikes at my LBS - April was their busiest month ever and May was 50% more. It tailed-off in June simply because there were no more bikes to sell. Specialized were diverting bikes from Spain to the UK. There was no need for discounting as anything would sell - some 2021 bikes are delayed because of the China shut-down. If there's any discounts, it will be on XS or 2XLs of unpopular models in horrible colours.

Unless you happen to be exceedingly tall .

I am that and there are no bikes available now, full price or otherwise.

There will be none left. They’re selling like hot cakes. The stock is thin at the bike shops within a 20 mile radius of me.

Ditto on the tall thing.

IMO only bargains will be second hand when some folk realise they don’t an expensive bike bought during lockdown

Just had a payout after totalling a frame, tried to buy local to support an LBS, but they couldn't get the spec I wanted in the size I wanted.

Ended up tracking one down at a big chain who can get it in to my nearest branch to pick up, but they were down to the last few frames in just one size. Luckily mine!

I think the eBay theory in 6-12 months may be correct - bad weather and economic collapse may create a lot of bargains for mid range bikes

I think the eBay theory in 6-12 months may be correct – bad weather and economic collapse may create a lot of bargains for mid range bikes

No need for any collapse or bad weather, although the latter well have an impact.

Lockdown, nothing else to do, nice sunny spring and quiet roads/trails, combined with no other retail being open - buy shiny new bike

Christmas credit card bills, roads full of traffic and lots of other things opening up - Why did I spend 3k on a bike again?

I wouldn't say no chance, there are discounted bikes about.

Bought my '20 Megatower with a grand off (normal size) and they're still at that price.

There was an article that said cheaper bikes have sold in their droves but bikes over 3k have actually reduced in volume during the lockdown.

not related to OP's question at all, but.....
I hoped there'd be a glut of ebay bargains in the years after the introduction of the cycle-to-work-schemes, then I wished there'd be a shower of (26 inch) ebay bargains in the years after 29ers appeared.
Now I'm dreaming about all the cheap unwanted bikes that'll become available after the covid bike buying bonanza dies off.
I think the reality will gathering dust in shed and garages across the country,

My mate owns the lbs, he was telling mi in mid may, that he didn’t have anything in the shop for less than £1k. Regardless of size type or colour.
Obviously, on stw that’s a cheap bike, but to the general public that’s a lot of dosh.
I imagine most shops will tell a similar story.

I think the reality will gathering dust in shed and garages across the country,

+1

99% of people have "a" bike. Not 3 mountainbikes, a road bike, a winter road bike, a commuter, a gravel bike, a cross bike + pit/gravel bike, a BMX and a 26" DH bike for alps trips.

They've bought a bike because of some want/need, e.g. ride with the family. They might not go out on it every day like they did during the lockdown (although anecdotally Swinley is packed with families on shiny matching bikes) but they'll still keep them for when they do.

Unlike STW they won't care that the geometry goes out of date, that 2.55" tyres are the new 2.4", if superboost takes off, or that they've accidentally bought 11speed Shimano gearing and in 10 years time when the cassette is worn that it's replacement is as heavy as the moon.

Popped into my local bikehut as was in the shop next door yesterday. They had a grand total of 3 bikes on the entire shop floor.

Most shops and distributors have been running much leaner for years. Nobody wants to have the stock to get rid of at the end of the year. A mate bought a Trek Slash last year, no stock anywhere, all the next shipment accounted for in his size, had to wait for the one after that.

Those new Boardmans look quite a nice way to spend my next c2w voucher though.