Has the boom gone bust?

Certainly some cheap bikes on the various sale sites.

With a bit of luck I'll be buying one in a few months' time, so I hope so.

It's not so much a 'bust' as industry supply chains all trying to work out what the new 'normal' will look like.

Certain items are still very hard to come by whereas in other instances bike deliveries have arrived early and are giving some shops some severe short-term cashflow issues, these are often what's behind the discounting you're seeing out there.

It's certainly a much better time to be in the market for a new bike than it was at any point in the last 2 years, but there are definately still challenges out there.

I’ve got an Orbea Occam and have been looking at prices as I think I need the size down. The same bike seems to go on the market for £2.5k and keep dropping until they get to £2k.

Imagine e bikes and downcountry are holding there price a bit more.

What size @tails?

I’ve got a large which according to them should fit. Looking to swap for a medium if changing the stem does not have the desired result.

At 5’ 9” I seem to sit in the worst spot for every manufacturer.

I'd say we had more of a bottleneck due to spares and lack of bikes being produced, it's now normal'ish again, but with the prices bikes have risen over the last few years i'd certainly say it's not turning into bargain city out there!

I was looking out for a bargain turbo, after my ~4.5 year old v1 Direto semi-broke a few months ago (at my normal cadence, my lowest gear 34/34 is very top of my z2). CRC were/are doing Diretos for £400, I was pretty chuffed to receive a new Saris H3 for £85 more a few days ago, from Rutland Cycles.

Mrsstu ordered a new bike a couple of weeks ago and was told it'd be October before it arrived.
Had a call from them back end of last week and they've managed to get one in for her already. Also got a fair sized discount on it.

DMed you @tails

This isn't just bikes though is it? Our household expenses have shot up and we've seriously cut back our spending.

I recently acquired a new credit card which I was going to use for a posh plastic trail bike but I'll me making do with what I have for the foreseeable future.

I'm not an STW rich guy with a portfolio of stocks and shares but we're not exactly on the bread line. Times are about to get seriously tight for an awful lot of people and new bikes will be the last thing on their minds whether they're in the sale or not.

I doubt it with the price of petrol.

What size @tails?

Not wishing to derail the thread but I've got an XL Occam frame I'm looking to sell if that suits.

At 5’ 9” I seem to sit in the worst spot for every manufacturer.

I have the same issue. I seem to remember 5'9 being "average" height, you'd think it would be the one height they'd be able to get right?

I’ve now seen ads for at least 2 large bike retailers holding sales.

Are the discounts actually significant? There have always been *some* bikes around, and less popular models or sizes. The discounts I've seen on complete bikes advertised as 'sale' have been pretty small compared to what we used to see
https://www.leisurelakesbikes.com/mountain-bike/bikes/onsale are mostly around 10%

though it does seem pretty early in the year to be discounting at all...

Not wishing to derail the thread but I’ve got an XL Occam frame I’m looking to sell if that suits.

I'm usually L or a big M in some.

15% off various 2022 models at Wheelbase so seems pretty decent to me

Sigma have some good deals.

https://www.sigmasports.com/clearance/bicycles-framesets

I have the same issue. I seem to remember 5’9 being “average” height, you’d think it would be the one height they’d be able to get right?

I am around 5'9" and never had a problem with bike sizing. Medium always does it and for road/cross/track bikes 54cm does it.

I am around 5’9″ and never had a problem with bike sizing. Medium always does it and for road/cross/track bikes 54cm does it.

I think you are right but Orbea sizing nudged me into large along with the fashion of long bikes at the moment.

It was also a big change from a medium 27.5 hard tail that was too small; to my first 29er full suss. Frustrating as I’ll lose my warranty but better having a bike that fits

Complete tangent but Orbea sizing can be "interesting". I'm 5'11 and normally ride a 56 or 58 cm road bike but I'm on a Medium Orbea Terra gravel bike with a shorter than stock stem.

Usually, M is for people just below average, L for those above.
Unfortunately heights tend to fit to a bell curve. So there’s a disproportionate number of people on the m/l boundary.

(Posted some more stuff, then went and fact checked myself and deleted it)

I’m not an STW rich guy with a portfolio of stocks and shares but we’re not exactly on the bread line.

You forgot the matching gunmetal grey Audi S5 (crackle mapped) and VW van on 20 inch alloys on the new estate. Don't want the neighbours thinking you work in hospitality or do manual labour with mismatched vehicles on the drive. Go on poverty safaris and can't afford a Disney+ subscription.

Let's face it the working class snobs are a worse kind of modern day Hyacinth Bucket. Small minded corporate sycophants, up their own arses to the point of licking the bottom of their lungs. Social media bullshitters that show off with things they have bought or free swag to promote their brand and boost their ego.

There was talk all the way through that it wasn't the new normal and that eventually demand would drop off, a global downturn and cost of living crisis will do that.

Sigma have some good deals

I'll take two!

@chestercopperpot That must be a whole weight of chips plus salt, vinegar & mayo, off of your shoulder.

Hope you feel better now 🙂

I have the same issue. I seem to remember 5’9 being “average” height, you’d think it would be the one height they’d be able to get right?

I ride with a chap who's 5'4", and I'm 6'2" - the 'average' is 5'9".

Neither of us would fit your bike 🙂

There was talk all the way through that it wasn’t the new normal and that eventually demand would drop off, a global downturn and cost of living crisis will do that.

It's not just a downturn / cost of living issue though.

During the lockdown folk that were lucky enough to keep their income had most of the normal destinations for disposal income closed. Holidays, concerts, gyms, non online shops, pubs, restaurants. Many saw their commuting costs dissapear too so were actually better off than they were before. One of the few things you could do was ride a bike and so there was a lot of disposal income chasing a reduced supply of bikes and bike parts.

I haven't touched my bike this year really, and so have bought zero bike parts. That's a huge change from the last couple of years and it's really just because there are now lots of events on and places to go and that's where my time and cash are going. I'm not alone in this.

I am around 5’9″ and never had a problem with bike sizing. Medium always does it and for road/cross/track bikes 54cm does it.

This for me as well, apart from the On One Free ranger, looking at that the other day and i'd be a small in that.

I don't actually know what stock levels are like, for the first time in over a decade, I've got a 3+ year old bike and I honestly haven't even looked at replacing it, it's not money either, I'll happily window shop £10k bikes in the dole queue, development of non-E-Bikes seems to have stalled? 27.5 seems out of favour, but not dead, mullets... not much desire there, I'd likely buy the same bike again in 29. Anyway, none of that matters.

As an armchair economist, if I had to guess it's a few things (it's never one thing).

1) Normality returning to manufacturing and 'bits' being more available.
2) A normal market correction post-pandemic. Everyone who bought a bike during lock down still has a pretty new bike.
3) Cost of living crisis vastly reducing discretionary spending power.
4) Maybe a little of the above, outside of ebikes ‘standards’ seem to have settled down, it feels more like the 2000s when evolution was slower and ‘new’ bikes meant new paint schemes.

At 5’ 9” I seem to sit in the worst spot for every manufacturer.

ROFL. Try being 6'5". Ok there are some frames that more or less fit, I think it's better than it used to be, modern geometry and 29 wheels seem to work better than the old 26 stuff ever did.

I'm 6'4" and just building up an XL Scandal 29er. I'm actually surprised how similar it's coming out to my current 2011(ish) 26er Spesh Rockhopper, despite the bigger wheels and longer (rigid) fork, in terms of stack and BB height, etc. Even the TT and chainstays are about the same length, although the former is pushed forward relative to the bottom bracket as a result of the bent seat tube. Be interested to see how it all pans out later in the year when I finish. I remember at the time some people (including Brant!) questioning whether an XL Scandal was even necessary - I certainly wouldn't want one smaller than this...

That must be a whole weight of chips plus salt, vinegar & mayo, off of your shoulder.

Hope you feel better now 🙂

@gazzab1955 - Which bit stung the most? The grey in gunmetal, oh wait no it was the working class part wasn't it.

I occasionally like to embrace the oh so Great British banter but really meaning it, you know it's all harmless fun isn't it.

The last one of these idiots we had out on a ride with us, we left in the middle of the peak district fannying around with his drone and doing selfies for insta. Ah the folly of youth, except he was in his forties, a boy in a mans body with money to throw at all and every hobby.

Prices on complete bikes seem to have dropped, second hand components are still daft though. I've been watching a few 2nd hand items on ebay that have gone for more than new. This would be fine if the item wasn't available new but it is from Merlin or CRC.

The worst thing is that the stocks of obsolete (e.g. 9, 10-speed) stuff have been completely exhausted as people got old bikes out of the shed and had them done up during the pandemic. No one is making it any more, so if you have a bike that uses old standards it's a nightmare finding stuff apart from really low-end bits.

I have a nice XT 9 speed chainset and bb if anyone is interested 😊

Its ok out there but not great. Sales are most likely trying to keep up with incoming supply (or rather shift stock to make room). The market with the exception of a few parts is now flowing much better.

The worst thing is that the stocks of obsolete (e.g. 9, 10-speed) stuff have been completely exhausted as people got old bikes out of the shed and had them done up during the pandemic

That's true, we have 1 x 10 speed bike left in the garage and it has been tricky to find genuine replacements. I found KMC chains and ZTTO cassettes close enough.

I occasionally like to embrace the oh so Great British banter but really meaning it, you know it’s all harmless fun isn’t it.

Maybe you do but I think you are on the wrong thread. Maybe start a thread about bitterness and resentment and rant away like the drunk bloke in the corner of the pub

In response to the OP - I'd say the boom's probably over because a lot of people now have their bike and the whole work/life balance has reached a new equilibrium. It may be that the increase in cycling has meant that the overall base has increased though, so the % that regularly changed their bike will now be a bigger number, in which case the industry will shift production to match.

But there are a lot of other economic issues too, people just can't afford new bikes or top end kit and as has been mentioned - a lot of the boom was because money was saved from the lack of travel costs.
It's discretionary spend and you'd always prioritise food and a roof over your head over a bike (well, most of us would). Plus there's the retailers that need to manage cashflow so they can keep the doors open and roof over their heads, I've no idea what their credit terms are but you don't want to sit on ££££'s of stock that's fully paid for long.

The worst thing is that the stocks of obsolete (e.g. 9, 10-speed) stuff have been completely exhausted as people got old bikes out of the shed and had them done up during the pandemic. No one is making it any more, so if you have a bike that uses old standards it’s a nightmare finding stuff apart from really low-end bits.

Hadn't thought of that.... I'd planned to move my 1x12 kit on to a different frame and build the Whippet up with 2x10 but had been surprised with the lack of unfashionable, so hopefully cheap parts out there. Gaaar!

Defo more sales happening, a couple of shops I keep up to date with have advertised them in the last few days. 25% off Santa Cruz at Bike Scene from memory?

The boom is definitely over. Been trying to sell my 18 month old frame for less than half of the rrp despite it being freshly repainted by the manufacturer and not even getting time wasters.

There will be a market correction for sure.

A lot of it was written on the wall. Bike brands that do the conventional sales model (ie no direct sales) end up forecasting with heavy reliance on feedback and orders from dealers and country reps. Those often are not very sophisticated operations (some are tho, so don't take offense if you're one of those) and live a lot in the moment with little strategy and future planning.

So they end up ordering and forecasting based on what they see today at the shop floor, rather than what likely lies ahead. We are now seeing a bigger influx of stock into the stores that is not being met with the same demand as it was during the pandemic.

Anyone with any basic understanding of how markets work saying that this was "the new normal" was almost surely doing so to create an expectation to further capture investment.

Also, notice how little old, experienced players like Shimano increased capacity during this period.

chester - yawn.
If you want to gob off or sneer why not take out a subscription to support the platform you're using to express your 'opinions'.

Maybe start a thread about bitterness and resentment

There's no shortage of them already.

If you want to gob off or sneer why not take out a subscription to support the platform you’re using to express your ‘opinions’.

Coming from you I'll take it.

Not sorry to see the posers go back to whatever they were doing before panic buying and stockpiling everything. Love nothing more than seeing the GO Pros disappear back to a drawer when they realise how slow/bad the footage looks and that showing off won't be as easy as first imagined!

I just bought a Microshift cassette as frankly it was a sensible price for an 11s 11-28 compared to big brands at near RRP. Bit of a downgrade after 20 years getting used to Shimano hyperglide!

From Shimano/SRAM it's still possible to get alivo/Deore level kit to keep bikes running, it's just the NOS XT type stuff that's all vanished. I guess never to return as it was only available because no one bought it on any great numbers.

If its not - it will be over the winter once the energy prices kick in and wage inflation fails to keep up with real life inflation.

I see that Scott have increased bike prices approximately 10% recently - as people reign in spending I think we’ll be less inclined to spend big on bikes.

I have a bit of a bee in my bonnet about bike prices in general !!

I'm not sure 10% price rises will really impact on sales.

20 years ago when I started "seriously" getting into MTB the most common bikes on the trails were probably XT sort of level. These days (even having moved to a richer part of the country) every other bike seems to be NX.

In isolation bike prices going up just appears to result in bikes shifting down the range. Because people will still want to have hobbies and the cost of doing them hasn't actually changed.

10% inflation in general on the other hand will cripple the industry as for most people that 10% probably will have been their discretionary spending. The only upside to this is that if it does trickle through to wage inflation (which it may well do given current employment rates meaning employers might not have much choice) which will finally dilute astronomical house prices as long as housebuilding continues at pace to improve supply.

There’s no shortage of them already.

Pick one then. Then you can stop with posting more of this shit on this thread

Not sorry to see the posers go back to whatever they were doing before panic buying and stockpiling everything.

Pick one then. Then you can stop with posting more of this shit on this thread

What's up bored of the perpetual arguing threads on the chat forum. This isn't a refuge for Twitter drama queens.

That feeling when you see an old thread pop up and wonder if someone's found some interesting news item or other link to it....

Nope, just @chestercopperpot dredging it up to tell other people they're bored?

Nah Kerley tore himself away from the arguing competitions on the chat forum to act like my forum Dad.

Must have been a slow day and/or quiet on Twitter!

Im struggling with the idea that anyone with an Audi S5 and VW Van could be considered working class.

Chestercopperpot has totally nailed the street I live down and the people, amazing!
I'm looked down on as the only reason I live there is because my wife has a good job, I'm a sales assistant in an outdoor clothing shop.
The VW Vans, the Audi, the house. It's all there.

I presumed it was ironic as he was complaining about the cost of driving to Welsh trail centers on the other thread.

@thisisnotaspoon - Yawn....

Nah Kerley tore himself away from the arguing competitions on the chat forum to act like my forum Dad.

Okay that's enough son. Go to your room for a month to think about what a **** you have been and only come out when you have got over it.