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I really quite like the idea of getting an e-bike, and I came very close to pulling the trigger on one recently. However, what stopped me were concerns about what happens when in 5 or 10 years time you need a new motor or battery? I can't imagine motors being as easy to get hold of as 9 speed derailleurs, and I'm guessing you can't bolt a Bosch motor onto a frame designed for a Brose. So are all e-bikes destined to end up as scrap long before their analogue stablemates?
Probably. As with any new technogy the rate of improvement will result in premature obsolescence. It's to be hoped that much of what's on sale today will at least be recycled.
I gave this quite a lot of thought recently as was buying one. I decided to think of it as a fun toy and not worry too much about the depreciation, which will be massive. Thankfully I can afford it, but I can see it being a real obstacle for many people. Buy a 7k bike, ride for 3 years, it’s worth maybe £1k ? In contrast the similar specced analogue version would cost 5k and after 3 years probably be worth £1500 I guess, so almost half the depreciation. I guess we don't buy bikes as financial investments 😀
People will be buying them on hire purchase soon I reckon.
I don't think battery replacement will be an issue with the major brands - bar perhaps those using special shaped batteries hidden in frames and the like. Same with replacement motors
You can also get new cells fitted into existing battery cases
As with any new technogy the rate of improvement will result in premature obsolescence.
This for me is my concern... i think this will apply to ebikes in the next decade as the technology develops rapidly as demand increases. I look at it as similar to smartphones in the last decade; who'd go back to a smartphone from 5-10 years ago?
So really it comes down to what iainc said "I decided to think of it as a fun toy and not worry too much about the depreciation"
People will be buying them on hire purchase soon I reckon.
You mean just like folk have been buying non-ebikes on hire purchase for years .
It will be interesting to see how ebikes will last long term and how they will be priced after a few years on the second hand market.
You mean just like folk have been buying non-ebikes on hire purchase for years .
Rental makes sense where there's a need for regular replacement (e.g. kids bikes) and might be a valid option for ebikes, allowing old batteries to be recycled and replaced with more efficient versions using newer technology. Depends on the lifetime of the battery vs the lifetime of the rest of the components.
Interesting discussion. EBikes arent that new. I wonder how people with 5+ year old ebikes are getting on?
Regardless from my pov they are a consumable, like a mobile phone to be replaced every 2 years when the warranty expires. I replaced my non-ebikes after 2 years anyway, so its no different really.
Brose and Bosch motors can be repaired by Performance Bearings for around £250
Brose 1.3 motors can be currently bought brand new with warranty for £380 (Rutland Cycles)
As for batteries there are people out there making range extenders that fit into the bottle cage and there are people working on repairing the original batteries when the cells dies
Anything can be repaired with the correct knowledge and money and this repair market can only get bigger as time goes on
We have a 6 season old Sparta on original battery and motor still going strong. Battery holds a charge for a full day out (40 - 70km), the Nexus hub has been more trouble in all that time.
Interesting. I guess if there's a demand for motor repairs or refurbishment then businesses will start meeting that demand.
On the other hand I did spend a bit of time on Google looking for spare or replacement battery packs and it seemed like they are quite hard to get hold of. I presume the growing demand for lithium batteries in phones and cars is resulting in a restricted supply to the ebike after market?
Are motors developing that fast? Are batteries developing that fast?
Will only be a problem if companies stop selling older motors and batteries if the answer to above is yes. Don't rally think it is comparable to smart phone as they are building in obsolescense as are computers, although saying that I am typing this on a 2009 iMac which has only just stopped being able to use latest OS update.
I presume the growing demand for lithium batteries in phones and cars is resulting in a restricted supply to the ebike after market?
Oh no, there are plenty of companies very keen to supply more cobalt and lithium at very cheap rates to meet demand. Children in the Congo work hard for only a few dollars a day, there's lots of money to be made. It seems to be difficult to trace it back up the supply chain so brands can turn a blind eye.
https://www.ft.com/content/c6909812-9ce4-11e9-9c06-a4640c9feebb
I realise this isn't the point of the thread, but it's not something I was aware of until fairly recently and with replacement batteries, rise in e-bike popularity etc in mind, I felt a bit naive or duped that it isn't talked about more. Recycling of the batteries is but not the sources of the materials. Goes for phones and laptops equally. Should we not buy things on this basis? Maybe, but that's not always realistic re phones or a laptop for work. What we should be doing is asking the battery suppliers to be more open about materials sources just like has happened with child labour in clothing manufacturing.
Motor design changes every 2-3 years at the moment, most manufactures are currently on their 2nd motor design (Brose and Bosch) as said before people are repairing 1st gen motors that are out of warranty now so i cant see a shortage anytime in the next 5 years
https://www.performancelinebearings.com/
As for battery packs they are available but are still expensive and its the casings which make them awkward/hard to find as most bikes use a specific casing to fit the integrated design of the frame
The actual battery cells within the casing are readily available and there are people replacing dead/damaged cells within the casing
https://www.electricbikebatteryrepairs.co.uk/
I gave this quite a lot of thought recently as was buying one. I decided to think of it as a fun toy and not worry too much about the depreciation
I can't say I've ever thought about resale value on any bike i've ever bought*.
As you quite rightly pointed out its a toy. Some people need to remember that...
*I have a run of the mill job and get paid a lot less than a lot of people on here but value my "fun" time a lot.
*I have a run of the mill job and get paid a lot less than a lot of people on here but value my “fun” time a lot.
+1
I've just made the decision to hang on to mine after the warranty expires in December, I just can't justify spending nearly £5k on a toy to replace the toy I currently own. I am treating it to a coil shock though.
I should think that you'll be able to buy new batteries still in a few years time, same goes for motors. I don't think it'll be a problem getting hold of spares.
Worst case scenario there will be 3rd parties that specialise in repairing batteries or motors.
Whether you still want to ride a 10 year old e mountain bike is the main question, Not many people want to ride a 10 year old normal mountain bike
As others say, everything on an ebike is fixable, the batteries can be replaced in total, or have the cells replaced by any one of a hundred places, the motors are not that complex, it's technology we've had for decades, repurposed for bikes, it'll be things like PCBs that'll be the annoying parts to replace, but again, i can see a few places becoming ebike service centres, i can send a 20 year old shock to TF tuned and get it back serviced, so i fully expect a few similar centres for ebike motors and batteries.
Batteries will not be a problem. You can get replacement nicad batteries for 10+year old drills. As other have said at worst replacement cells.
Motors should be fairly reliable. It also would not surprise me if there didn't end up being replaced 3rd party motors with the same mounting.
The bit that I haven't seen mentioned is the driver. Brushless DC motors are nothing without the driver and that's where a lot of the motor charactistics come from and definitely and integration with crank torque sensors etc. There maybe a proliferation of third party drivers too but they are more likely to be generic and so not as nice as the one that comes with the bike. This is the component I would be most worried about.
TIL that the new shimano EP8 motor uses same mounting as the oldone, so you can upgrade your old bike
Our old Sparta had to have a replacement display and control unit this year after a customer thought the diagnosis socket was a USB port. Total bill £130 of which £84 was for the part.
The new operating software has transformed the response from the motor, with a smoother uptake and less precipitous fall-off when the speed exceeds 24km/h.
Couldn't help but notice that the battery company above don't list Shimano , Brose or Bosch amongst the batteries they can fix. Might be due to some kind of copyright issue but might be the biggest companies don't want there batteries fiddled with or more likely done cheaper.
They (the manufacturer) may have some form of hash on a chip in the battery such that replacement cells is harder to do (or just more time consuming and so not profitable). It may be that the chip looses data when disconnected when swapping cells or that the chip needs to be transferred or on every (true, last one will be at manufacturer) power cycle the hash is altered and then is out of sync with the driver and so something needs resetting.
Non of this is impossible to get round but it just may be hard to have a generic solution or it requires too much time on each unit to be profitable.
Ultimately I think it's up to Bosch/Brose/Yamaha etc. Could go either way, keep providing spares and updates for their older kit, or try and incentivise their customers to get the latest and greatest by retiring stuff. But then independant specialists can step in.
There's nothing special about the technology used really, much less complex than a car for example and you keep those going for decades.
I would like to see new tech being retro-fittable. If they improve batteries to give you 50% more range for example. Would be great if I could buy an updated Bosch Powertube battery in a few years that gave me 30 miles more range.