[Closed] Do we think 2021 is going to be biking bonkers, a repeat of 2020?

Brands will be playing catch up until the autumn, and that's only if the world doesn't have more lock downs so I wouldn't be too optimistic of a return to normal

It will be a sellers market for 2nd hand stuff as none of the shops have stock

I do wonder how its going to be for bike shops.  Demand is worthless if you cant get stock

I think it will be worse to get hold of a new bike just got a Trek disc road bike came in last week ordered back in October was in no rush some of the 2021 models are not due back in till July/September watch this space.

I've been looking for a new bike for the last few months and most shops are quoting delivery dates into 2022 for popular models already! I've actually ordered a bike that should be with me early May, ordered it back at the end of January and that model is now showing new order deliveries for August. I only ordered the one I did as it's available soon, my first choice is not shipping to the UK sadly. If I find something better then I'll cancel it but it's looking more and more unlikely to find anything better! Basically if you haven't got an order in already getting a new bike for this summer is unlikely without some luck, let alone getting the exact model you want.

From speaking to the shops I tried they are worried about having nothing to physically sell this summer, plenty of customers but no product not just bikes.

It sounds like new bikes are going to be like hen’s teeth then...but is the bottom going to fall out of the 2nd hand market this year if there is an influx of bikes.

I was looking at a carbon fork yesterday which had "Pre Order Dec 21" on it. Normality has some way to go.

Hope it isn't going to be too mental, but it looks like it c will be.
Am just hoping my meta tr that is in order comes in by the summer. Just glad i didn't sell my full sus when i ordered it.

Our road is just a procession of walkers and riders (we are on NCN7) at the moment.
It's genuinely 20x or more the volume of walkers and cyclists.
Lots of new bikes.
Let's hope that the levels of physical exercise and outdoors remains. It's good for people.

When I was looking for a bike for Mrs R's xmas present, it was almost a case of doing a double take when bikes did list as pre-order dec '21....had to check the calendar! I was thinking that may have just been demand for "tow-path" bashing bikes, casual or first-time cyclists...seemingly it extends to enduro schleds too.

I imagine there will be quite a backlog demand for approx £500-£1500 bikes from last year going forward until at least autumn this year.

There was a presentation shared on Twitter from specialized, lead times are currently up to 9-10 months on some components. It might be a while before things get better.

If you/a shop don't have any order in already, you're going to be waiting a long, long time. And if you can find a frame, good luck finding components. Nothing is going to be normal until the end of the year at the earliest from what I've heard from a few places. Drivetrain parts, saddles, forks, tyres and complete bikes seem worst affected though.

My local shop warned me hardly any stock this year and order before the autumn for a bike next year.

I put a thread up before christmas about the second hand market. A friend asked me to look out for a decent hardtail for her son.

On looking around, Facebook Marketplace was absolutely awash with bikes that had either never been used, or ridden once or twice. There were pictures of some bikes that had clearly never been built up. Some were still in boxes. Most seemed to be hardtails in the 500 - 700 quid bracket, but there was some proper high-end stuff too, all at waaaaaaay below the list price.

As for the most popular brands, lets just say that Halfords must have made an absolute killing last year

Do we think 2021 is going to be biking bonkers, a repeat of 2020?

I'd be asking this question about 2022. And summer 2022 at that. This year could be worse than last year.... well into the winter.

A search for a Whyte T130 took me to an advert on schpok?? Jeez, I thought facebook marketplace was bad, but the exchanges on that were bonkers. I think I'd have to be super careful to venture into a purchase from there.

I’d say yes, the lack of stock is gonna continue this year at least.
I was meant to go to Canada last month, obviously that didn’t happen, so we’ve put it back a year, but if I’m honest, I’m not 100% it’ll happen then either.
As for bikes, no stock generally until aug/sep at the earliest.
2nd hand prices will remain strong until then, but will soften a fair bit once stock becomes available.
Glad I’m not desperate for a bike tbh.

I've got a new hard tail frame to build up and am seriously tempted to sell my full suss while demand is high. The dilemma is that I will want to replace it at some point and that could be 18 months away!

Is ebay still the best place?

I see no evidence of things easing off or lots of cheap bikes. I see bikes every where

Yep, three local bike stores all have little bike stock, everything on back order. Not seeing a massive amount of extra people out riding but that may be weather-dependent.

Facebook Marketplace seems to be a good place to sell bikes (or anything), as it’s basically an ‘online car boot’ there’s no worries of people ripping you off and reporting you to eBay.

I may have been lucky and secured a new road bike at a week’s notice - let’s see if it arrives.

I wonder when it’ll be a good time to sell the old one?

@binners can you give me a rough lcation to put in the search criteria on Marketplace? Locally it's all knackered BSOs and chancers with 10 year old full sussers asking more than they would have cost new.