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Just read a BBC Sport piece on the chances of Cav winning. Basically they thought his chances were lowish because the GB team isn't large enough to control the breakaways, and that Olympic history suggests that it tends to be GC type riders who win. It never comes down to a bunch sprint.
Why not then sacrifice Froome in a breakaway? That will get the peleton thinking.
Mr Miller won in a breakaway.
Why not then sacrifice Froome in a breakaway? That will get the peleton thinking.
Froome? in a breakaway? hmmmkay.
GC type riders who win
Like his team mates? I think they could combine quite well.
Mr Miller won in a breakaway.
Which Miller, and what did he win?
If you mean Millar in the tour, the Olympic RR is not a stage in the tour.
would say Cav is a marked man, small teams mean control is difficult.
Look for a classics/rouleur rider, Cancellara, Sanchez, Gilbert, etc. not a pure sprinter such as Cav or Greipel.
Mind you i have a suspicion it may be Sagan. Seems to have won everything else he has tried to this year.
small teams mean control is difficult.
True but Germany are banking on a sprint for Greipl so that's 10 riders working for a sprint in effect.
Let's see bunch sprint, who'd reall bet against Cav break away Millars been there done it so chances are good, hit the afterburners and blow the race apart wigg and froome would be v hard to beat, think the GB team has a really nice balance
Olympic history suggests that it tends to be GC type riders who win
It does not - Ulrich aside
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Olympic_medalists_in_cycling_(men)#Road_race.2C_individual
If it is a sprint I think Cav will win it if he is there
I think between them the team have the power and speed to do it
The unknown is luck
Wont be just Cav that wants a sprint as others note
Trade in your old gold for a world champion?
True but Germany are banking on a sprint for Greipl so that's 10 riders working for a sprint in effect.
Good point. If they're prepared to work together with GB then it might just come down to a sprint. So was letting Greipel win those TdF stages a long term tactic to make them think it worth bringing Cav to the finish?
Olympic history suggests that it tends to be GC type riders who win. It never comes down to a bunch sprint.
I don't agree. I reckon history suggests that it tends to be the type of riders who win World Championships or one day Classics.
I'm pretty sure that Cav's included in those categories 😉
Cav's also been training for more MSR type sprints than classic bunch sprints - eg sprints from a group of riders who have whittled out many of the pure sprinters.
Just been watching an interview with Millar - has already spoken to German captain (on his pro team) about GB & Germany working together to keep it all together for a Cav/Greipl sprint. He also reckons US might help out too to keep Farrar in it.
His thoughts seem to be basically GB/US/Germany vs Italy/Belgium/Spain breaks.
Interesting interview and another insight into Brailsford's approach (or maybe just Millar's mindset) - Millar began talking about Game Theory at one point and not sure how many other pros in any sport would be trying to get their heads around that.
slainte 😯 rob
I have no doubt that all eventualities have been covered and Team GB will either quash any breaks or have a contingency plan to put someone else in a position to take gold if it doesn't end in a bunch sprint down the Mall (which is what I'm hoping for as that would be EPIC!).
tom boonen with a broken rib.
As you say, they'll definitely have a plan for if Cav gets dropped/crashes/etc.
I wonder if it's for Wiggo to TT 40k to the finish line? 🙂
indeed. in my eyes i had hoped we'd be looking at a hard man's race.
boonen (still out tho i think)
cancellara (still a bit injured)
sagan??? - new hero on the block
gilbert? - maybe need more hills towards end.
frankly, and not to GB bash, it will be a worse spectacle if these kinda lads are out of the game and GB/DE close everything down to only race out the last 500m.
Interesting point aracer. Wasn't until the end of the TdF we really saw Cav's proper sprint form. Might have been circumstance/luck/crashes/etc. but wouldn't put it past Brailsford to be playing a longer game.
slainte ❓ rob
[i]boonen (still out tho i think)[/i]
boonen rides
team belgian hardman ftw.
Will the Aussies ride for Matty Goss? that's another 4 very very strong riders setting it up for the sprint
Personally I reckon it will mirror the world's, with everyone knowing what the GB plan is but pretty much unable to do anything about it. Keep it all fairly closed down until after the last time up Box Hill then with 40km to go stick Wiggins and Froome on the front at full TT gas and take it from there. Only question for me is who leads Cav out (don't know very much about Stannard) unless Bradley has still got enough in his legs to wind things up from longer out?
Only disappointing thing is I won't be watching it live as I'll be at Lord's watching the Archery. Will have to try and avoid results until I get home Saturday night to iPlayer it.
slainte ❓ rob
I reckon you could add the aussies to the list of sprinting teams. Goss for a podium spot.
Edit. Klunk beat me to the line by a spoke's breadth.
depends on whether Goss wants silver I assume 😉
wouldn't put it past Brailsford to be playing a longer game.
It did occur to me as a serious thought, but I was being mischievous - really can't see that deep a strategy being played. Though you have to admit it hasn't done Cav's chances any harm that Greipel did win those stages.
😆
Or bronze for that matter, junky.
can you imagine the look on Cav's face, "Look Mark I'd like you to lose a few of these sprints on purpose"
stannard has previous in leadouts - maybe not for cav but ill bet on him doing a better job than anyone else on this forum - even if they were allowed an engine to do it !
"but I was being mischievous - really can't see that deep a strategy being played"
read any of the brailsford elites biogs - brailsford plays long games.
everyone knowing what the GB plan is but pretty much unable to do anything about it.
Though as mentioned, the big difference is in the team size - far, far easier to execute such a plan with a 9 man team. As discussed above, they're going to have to look to get some help from others.
Only question for me is who leads Cav out (don't know very much about Stannard)
My understanding is that's what Stannard's there for - same play as on the Champs Elysees with Brad winding it up from further out and Stannard finishing off. Though I could be totally wrong.
read any of the brailsford elites biogs - brailsford plays long games.
Yes - but getting Cav to crash in order to give away a TdF stage win?
If that had really been the case, I don't think that Cav played it very well on his penultimate win.
If it comes to a sprint It'll be mayhem, just how Cav likes it.
on the test event did they use the full width of the mall for the finish ?
The Aussies might want a sprint too. It certainly will be interesting.
Sagan is in really impressive form he is definitely in with a chance, but who is going to want to work with him in a break?
Is Thor taking part?
My understanding is that's what Stannard's there for - same play as on the Champs Elysees with Brad winding it up from further out and Stannard finishing off. Though I could be totally wrong.
You often are but not this time 😉
IIRC cav wanted him
Sagan is in really impressive form he is definitely in with a chance, but who is going to want to work with him in a break?
Luis Leon Sanchez?
or maybe Realman?
I don't agree. I reckon history suggests that it tends to be the type of riders who win World Championships or one day Classics.I'm pretty sure that Cav's included in those categories
This +1
Fantasy race though:
Breakway on lap one of box hill containing Froome and any other GC style riders, Froome dishes out the pain untill they're all dropped and back in the Pelaton and spent. Wiggo and Millar do a well co-ordinated breakway over the last lap of Box Hill and TT'it upto Froome all three get to the last km and crash, the nation dispairs. Ian Stannard leads out Cav from a kilometer who then sprints so hard his rear tyre explodes over the line.
or maybe Realman?
CHuckles 😆
can his tyre burst into flames rather than explode and as it burns it leaves embers in the colours of the olympice rings?
I'd love to see Cav win but my instinct is still for a classics style rider. Boonen springs to mind, maybe Gilbert or Cancellara if he is going for the road race not the TT. I'd love to see Millar have a go from a break but as team captain I guess he needs to stay in the pelaton.
Why is everyone so unsure about Stannard leading out Cav? It was G and StNnard that led out the WC sprint and short of a bit of positioning around the last bend that worked pretty well.
The view from pros who've ridden the course seems to be that Box Hill is really quite easy, particularly now that it's got a really smooth surface on the climb. The descent is poorly surfaced and tricky but neither of those should in themselves trouble someone like Cav.
If that's really the case, it's going to be very hard for a rider like Boonen, Cancellara, LLS, Sagan or Gilbert to get away and then actually stay away on the long, fairly flat run in to the finish.
And it's maybe worth adding that before the 2011 World Champs no one would have said that a single team could control the entire race in the way that Team GB did...
Klunk - Memberon the test event did they use the full width of the mall for the finish ?
Yes:
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I reckon we'll see a large break of 15-20 riders away during the Box Hill reps which will then stay away til the end. I tip Sagan to make the break and win the sprint.
There's no way they'd let Sagan get in a group, surely!
If it's a bunch sprint you'd be brave to bet against Cavendish.
If a break stays away I'd be surprised.
Just been watching an interview with Millar - has already spoken to German captain (on his pro team) about GB & Germany working together to keep it all together for a Cav/Greipl sprint. He also reckons US might help out too to keep Farrar in it.
This is what Ive heard too.
It makes me think its more likely that a group will breakaway to try & blow things apart.
It should make for a great race!
The olympics road race is an interesting dynamic of teams with sprinters against one dayer individuals. There is an argument that the whole of the team should get medals.
US might help out too to keep Farrar in it.
a ha ha
could be really exciting. All the non sprinting teams are going to have to do something so they aren't just also rans so I expect the classics suspects to go for a break.
I think team [s]sky[/s] GB have what it takes to hold it together and get Cav to a sprint unless it is a very sizeable break away (10+ riders). That said I did think Jens nearly got the better of them in Paris. I wouldn't fancy trying to get a break with Wiggins, Millar and Froome trying to catch - Timetrialtastic! Only fear would be losing Cav off their wheels.
Box hill isn't really a hill by pro standards so I don't think it will cause many problems for the genuine conteders but it will give some opportunity to a break.
What's the course like for wind?
This is the wonderful thing about the Olympic Road Race. Everyone has been saying “why Box Hill, it’s not a proper climb, blah blah” but what it’s done is put enough uncertainty into the race to make it difficult to call. It’s a hell of a long way from BH back into London though so you’d be brave to bet against a bunch sprint – on the other hand stranger things have happened and if it blows to pieces on the hill and GB are caught with riders all over the road, it’ll be carnage to control. Yes, Cav is odds on favourite if it comes down to a bunch sprint but there’s 250km of racing to go and there’s a lot can happen in that time!
Sky? 🙂
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Garmin Sharp?
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In fairness Sky sponsor team GB, they just can't put their logo on the olympic kit as they[s]'ve not given LOCOG a massive backhander[u]'re not official games partners.
My feeling is there will be a break from the non sprinting nations and a chase from those who want a sprint. BH is too far from the end for a solo Cancellara type attack. and i don't see many springboards in the run in where an attack could be launched.
As a solo is going to fail, it will need a small group.
The alternative for the non sprinters is to go for attrition, keep the pace high and i mean stupidly high and try and blow everyone out the back, last man standing wins.
Has anyone got a course profile pic? I saw the one on The Cycle Show which was basically the hill x 9 nothing else.
(One of the many reasons why that program was crap)
I wouldn't fancy trying to get a break with Wiggins, Millar and Froome trying to catch - Timetrialtastic!
Good point - 50km, flat roads, TTT with 3 of the best in the game.
There is an argument that the whole of the team should get medals
Well the rowers do so why not?
[i]Well the rowers do so why not? [/i]
i guess if they crossed the line all on the same bike they would 😆
Just ridden some of the Surrey section, plenty of nice new smooth surface from W Byfleet to Shere - very fast, hedge lined for much and as it run N -> S quite sheltered as the wind is usually W -> E.
A25 was a slog in the traffic, then to Box Hill - meh, did 2 laps, TBH 9 wouldn't have been fun - and wanted to save some legs to play with the Pinarellari in Team Sky kit on the way back 🙂
Didn't fancy the L'head to Esher bit in the crush hour so turned back the reverse route.
Although there's no real hills apart from BH, it's one of those routes that's "not exactly flat" and "not exactly technical" but can see some places where pain may be inflicted by the sheer pace possible and some corners that should be fun at pro speeds.
Nice to see plenty of bunting and freshly mown verges/greens in the villages, seems like plenty of support from locals despite what the media may have you believe.
72 miles, just under 4 hrs, I'm not expecting a call from team GB any time soon but was fun to ride where heroes soon will tread 😉
[i] i guess if they crossed the line all on the same bike they would[/i]
What if Cav & Wiggins form a massive breakaway. Then 1km with the rest of the field minutes behind Cav could stop, let Wiggins mount his bike & give him a backie over the line, thus claiming a gold medal for the both of them 😉