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Been thinking about ordering a Trek Rail for Feb/March delivery, just noticed the prices have went up by a good lump, is this brexit or bike demand
Specialized and Giant put up theirs a month or two ago.
Demand + supply disruption + extra complexities = higher prices.
check out Genesis their prices have rocketed this year, cant blame brexit for that one.
cant blame brexit for that one.
Do you think it's all sourced in uk?
is this brexit
orand bike demand
The latest price jumps for Trek, Canyon and others are the result of the changes that kicked in on the last night of 2020. But high demand (on components) has been putting up costs, and delaying the arrival on the market, for bikes from all sources throughout 2020 and into 2021, resulting in a series of price jumps (with more likely to come).
I was looking at the Slash 8 last year, just seen it's jumped up £300!
Nobody said the Brexit dividend was going to be in our favour.
Oh hang on, yes they did.
I had a specialized Sirrus X 3.0 on order for my daughter at £700. Now gone up a whopping 21.5% to £850. It was repeatedly delayed so bought something else.
Shipping costs have rocketed over the past few months. That alone is enough to drive the prices of bikes up before you start to look at other factors.
check out Genesis their prices have rocketed this year, cant blame brexit for that one.
Do you think their bikes are hand crafted in Milton Keynes? My Fugio hadn't seen the UK until I unboxed it. Like many other brands it was built in Taiwan with Shimano components coming from Japan, WTB tyres from China and finishing kit from who knows where.
check out Genesis their prices have rocketed this year, cant blame brexit for that one.
Have they? Some increases on up-specced bikes (Vagabond), but like for like bikes are much the same (Longitude, CDAs, TDFs) and some have come down significantly through a re-spec (Flyer, Day One).
Shipping costs have gone up dramatically. Commencal put a post up on pinkbike a couple
Of weeks ago
Definitely think there'll be another bump in a couple of months as well, lack of product, increased costs and a rush for bikes will see to that.
Container costs went from $2000 to $15000 per box shortly after 31 December. Components are in short supply with some parts being bought forwards by 18 months of so.
If your friendly LBS says they have something for March/April and you can afford/need it put your name down for whatever it is.
Prices have been going up & up for the last 20 odd years!
I asked Trek UK about the price rise, Brexit plus some logistics was their answer.
Been thinking about ordering a Trek Rail for Feb/March delivery, just noticed the prices have went up by a good lump, is this brexit or bike demand
Bike demand is _very_ high still. Its relentless even in January when half the country has snow! Lack of supply, suppliers are all putting their prices up beyond normal due to covid, and additional brexit related costs all add up.
Above inflation bike price increases has been happening for a long time, not just new years eve 2020!
I bought a high spec santa cruz blur in 2010 for £3.5k, 11 years later you are looking at £9k for the same spec bike. Wages haven’t gone up x3 since 2010.
If your friendly LBS says they have something for March/April and you can afford/need it put your name down for whatever it is.
Just done this on a new road bike. Was going to wait a few months for C2w to be set up but figured the choice of bikes to buy in April / May would be non existance.
I look after a large retailer at the bank I work for. Speaking to them today they said container costs to the U.K. had gone from circa £2.5k to between £7.5k-£10k. It’s not sustainable to keep rrps where they are if this is sustained. Shipping co’s would prefer to ship to the US right now as it’s more profitable for them. It might correct itself a bit after Chinese New Year - at the moment a lot of containers aren’t getting back to China due to Covid so they’re in short supply - hence the cost increase.
Have they? Some increases on up-specced bikes
Well the CdF framesets are up 10%, and since there are no components, there is no mistaking where the increase is coming from. That's with the 135qr. If you want the 12mm TA, it's another £250. Pretty sure that it doesn't cost that much to change the axle lugs. You could say they are offering a low cost option with the old, less desirable standard, but that would mean the more expensive TA is the 'true' price. £800 for a Cdf frame is just mad. The VFM is pretty much gone there.
I’m a bit more cynical about the whole bike price thing.
Prices are stupid these days. You can buy a more capable motocross bike for less money
It’s a result of cycling being the new golf, and the fact that for the best part of a year and probably this next year sport is pretty limited to riding a bike.
Have other goods jumped in cost the same way? I doubt it.
Have other goods jumped in cost the same way? I doubt it.
A lot of materials for my kitchen and bathroom business are or have gone up by 10-20% since end of December.
Bikes seem to be the perfect storm though and prices are going nuts. Glad I’m not in the market for a new one. My motorbike cost less than my road bike.
Have other goods jumped in cost the same way? I doubt it.
Not into running so wouldn't know but guess more people are running so have running shoes got supply/demand and increase price issues?
My motorbike cost less than my road bike.
Priorities all correct there. It's a point of principle that my car costs less than my bike!
Bought a frameset in the summer, RRP £2.8k and got a healthy discount on top.
2021 model now being listed at £3.6k...same frame, they’ve only changed the paintwork.
I've had cars that cost less than my bike wheels...
Remember you can buy a bike for less than the price of a pair of good car/motorbike tyres (I wouldn’t recommend it though). Prices have gone up, because costs have gone up… bicycles are an international business (who here has a UK made rear mech) and we have decided to make that more costly for the UK to be a part of. Add onto that the effects of a epidemic. The UK buyer needs to be looking at much lower spec bikes if they want to match 2016 type prices.
Have other goods jumped in cost the same way? I doubt it.
Yes. Global manufacturer & we have seen significant price increase both internally & externally throughout the supply chain.
Why would bikes be any different?
I’ve had cars that cost less than my bike wheels…
Presumably the cars were secondhand and the wheels new?
In that case I've paid more for a shirt than a car.
The UK buyer needs to be looking at much lower spec bikes if they want to match 2016 type prices.
As someone that imports bike bits from mainly outside the EU, inflation & currency adjusted our bikes havent seen a massive increase in prices over 2016. We have dropped a number of the cheaper options, so the base price might be highter but it's a different bike.
We do however expect to see a small increase in costs this year over inflation, maybe 5%-7% overall as the suppliers are increasing costs above inflation, but thats helped a little by the 0.7% reduction in duty and sustained slight improvement of the $. Air freight into the UK has skyrocketed as has load space on ships, but load space on ships costs peanuts anyway if you're shipping stuff thats has a decent price/volume ratio (half decent bike stuff does), so 2 or 3 times peanuts is still peanuts. Whether we'll see big increases in port fees is yet to be seen.
All that said, its a total nightmare trying to stay on top of the actual ordering of stuff now with some timelines from one major supplier of ours topping out over 500 days.
FIVE
HUNDRED
DAYS.
Thats nigh on impossible to manage 🙁
Surely there are factories in the far east churning out chains, brake pads and cassettes by the thousand every day.
Is demand really so high they can't keep up?
“ Surely there are factories in the far east churning out chains, brake pads and cassettes by the thousand every day.
Is demand really so high they can’t keep up?”
These factories don’t just churn out a randomly huge amount of product, they make what the market will buy. When the market expands then they can’t magically become bigger factories with larger capacity. And if they’re having to operate differently due to Covid then their output may actually be lower.
Bike demand is hugely up. Expanding factories requires big investment for what may only be a brief bubble in demand which may not happen for long enough to pay back expansion investment.
Yes. current lead times on new orders for saddles from the company that produces for 80% of the bicycle industry is over 400 days. If a manufacturer orders suspension forks today from one of the biggest fork manufacturers in the world, they would receive them next March.
Biggest issue facing all industries right now is shipping costs, a container from Asia to the UK is normally around 2.5K euros, this morning there is a new story of shipping container costs being auctioned at 16K euros. If manufacturers bringing in a container of 'normal' price point bikes (£500-£700) didn't recoup some of the extra freight costs then they would probably lose money on those bikes, at a time when there is unprecedented demand for bikes.
So for the UK you have: rising raw material costs, huge rise in shipping costs and extra tariffs due to Brexit. Prices will be volatile this year, possibly going up and coming down.
Bike demand is _very_ high still.
Yup. I was hovering over buying a Mason Bokeh and in the time I took to think about it the waiting time went up by nearly 3 months! The extended lead time is due to waiting for the Specialized groupset.
I work in a cancer research lab, pandemic & Brexit are perfect storm, much of our reagents come from Germany, Switzerland etc
Costs have jumped by 20% in the lat 6 months with another round this January , its really impacting our budgets, which didn't have much breathing room anyway, especially since £ fell.
DNA sequencing is our biggest cost & we've simply had to rewrite our projects around the higher prices, with less patients studied (we even considered teaming up with the Chinese government to keep costs down)
A lot of what we order is incredibly specialist and sourcing from elsewhere is simply not an option
Back OT
Tbh I'm not riding enough to justify a new bike!
inflation & currency adjusted
Err... if you allow for price rises prices haven't risen?
= ;87)
And if they’re having to operate differently due to Covid then their output may actually be lower.
If we're talking Taiwan they were so on top of controlling Covid, that they only lost about six weeks of production, which does impact to a certain extent... but it's really demand that they are struggling with... they have as much production capacity as ever right now. Of course, getting stuff though our Brexit clogged ports is another matter... lots of stuff aimed at the UK stuck on boats, or off loaded at nonUK ports.
Example Canyon Neuron 6:
Apr 2020 £1649
Nov 2020 £1849
Jan 2021 £2099
27% increase in less than a year for the exact same spec. The first jump I put down to supply/demand, the second is Brexit.
(*also worth being aware of for insurance claims for specified bikes)
One other thing. I reckon this is going to lead to the most almighty crash in the bike market. Shops and brands will go out of business if they get it wrong.
Prices are stupid these days. You can buy a more capable motocross bike for less money
It’s a result of cycling being the new golf, and the fact that for the best part of a year and probably this next year sport is pretty limited to riding a bike.
Utter guff.
You can buy a very capable MTB for £1.5 to 2.5k.
Just because an entry-level motorbike might be cheaper than a top-end MTB (that very few people buy), doesn't mean prices are generally "stupid".
And cycling was "the new golf" in 2012. Golf has been "the old cycling" for years now. Covid & Brexit are the drivers here.
Funny how the Brexiteers have all gone so quiet. The ****s.
One other thing. This is going to lead to the most almighty crash in the bike market. Shops and brands will go out of business if they get it wrong.
You think demand will slump below pre-Covid/Brexit levels, or that companies will naively expand and get in trouble when demand just returns to previous levels?
As someone that imports bike bits from mainly outside the EU, inflation & currency adjusted our bikes havent seen a massive increase in prices over 2016. We have dropped a number of the cheaper options, so the base price might be highter but it’s a different bike.
We do however expect to see a small increase in costs this year over inflation, maybe 5%-7% overall as the suppliers are increasing costs above inflation, but thats helped a little by the 0.7% reduction in duty and sustained slight improvement of the $.
Pinnick blows the whistle on it - anything above 10% rise is going to be about under-availability of supply - what the market will bear, as opposed to awful external costs.
anything above 10% rise is going to be about under-availability of supply
Ignoring the 300% rise in transport costs for shipping from outside the EU? (eg Genesis) And ignoring companies with European distribution centres facing 14% tariffs on bikes (eg Trek)? And ignoring the costs of holding extra stock in the UK due to supply chain disruption (eg Brompton)?
You think demand will slump below pre-Covid/Brexit levels, or that companies will naively expand and get in trouble when demand just returns to previous levels?
Both, one a slump before normality returns. Perfect storm:
growth/sales simply cannot be sustained at current levels
once holidays open up people will suddenly move their disposable income budgets elsewhere
significant numbers of second hand / nearly new bikes will enter the market
Over ordering in the far east where payment is only due 14d before delivery a year down the line means as the demand slows, there's going to be a big period of base costs without supply & therefore incomes to match for companies to bridge followed by a big bill at the end. Many I suspect will have over ordered and get into trouble. What we're seeing now would be fine if you believe that bike demand globally will remain at 3 times the 2019 comparable, but I would be happy if it settles at 20% up (and I think I will be closer) but the lack of supply means people are buying like 300% is sustainable. It's clearly not and something will break.
“ You think demand will slump below pre-Covid/Brexit levels, or that companies will naively expand and get in trouble when demand just returns to previous levels?”
I’d be amazed if demand doesn’t fall significantly. There will be so many barely used secondhand bikes available due to loads of new cyclists giving up cycling plus high unemployment due to the Covid+Brexit recession, squeezed household costs due to Brexit price rises and lots of other things to spend money on that have been on hold (holidays, gigs, pubs, festivals).
There is no way demand will outstrip supply forever... at some point it will switch around... it is always thus... but that doesn't mean the new extra costs facing the bike industry will also all disappear. If prices do drop to clear excess stock post Covid... it'll mean closures of companies and shops, as Ben said. Once supply/demand is rebalanced, bikes are still going to cost more... because costs are higher. Price isn't just about demand.
Bikes will always sell, peak demand like the one we had that emptied loads of shops won't happen again for a while, but that was a weird one as most didn't have stock to fulfill orders anyway.
Some companies did really well out of the Covid/C2W stuff, but others didn't as they weren't set up to match the demands, it'll be interesting to see what companies do well or not so well now with the way the UK market is.
I frequent the MTBR forums and Specialized have just increased the prices in Canada but not the US:
Just noticed Specialized jacked up the price of the Stumpjumper EVO in canada but not in the US. Comp up by $300 and Expert by $500
Late last year the price of the Enduro comp went from £4500 to £5000 for the base model which comes with NX groupset!
Well the CdF framesets are up 10%, and since there are no components, there is no mistaking where the increase is coming from. That’s with the 135qr. If you want the 12mm TA, it’s another £250. Pretty sure that it doesn’t cost that much to change the axle lugs.
Ah - you’d said Genesis bikes, so I took that to mean across the board rather than a couple of frames. I’d imagine frames are relatively low volume for them (I see plenty complete bikes in shops, but not so many frames) and so have different economies of scale.
Pinnick blows the whistle on it – anything above 10% rise is going to be about under-availability of supply – what the market will bear, as opposed to awful external costs.
The freight cost increases are huge (temporary, but huge). The effect isn’t a %age increase as it affects cheaper bikes more than spendier ones as the transport cost increase per unit is the same regardless of the value of the unit. Trek’s prices are up circa 10-12% across the board, but the kids bikes are up 25% as they are (or were!) at the cheaper end of the scale.
Never mind bikes. This is the most worrying post on this thread...
I work in a cancer research lab, pandemic & Brexit are perfect storm, much of our reagents come from Germany, Switzerland etc
Costs have jumped by 20% in the lat 6 months with another round this January , its really impacting our budgets, which didn’t have much breathing room anyway, especially since £ fell.
DNA sequencing is our biggest cost & we’ve simply had to rewrite our projects around the higher prices, with less patients studied (we even considered teaming up with the Chinese government to keep costs down)A lot of what we order is incredibly specialist and sourcing from elsewhere is simply not an option
Yep, bike price increases is a snapshot of what is happening to everything we import. We may live in a small bubble bemoaning our expensive toys costing more (that would be me as I'm in the market for a bike right now) but the effects on the wider UK make that pale into insignificance.
I'm looking at price increases of print+ membership in light of the fact our paper stock comes from the EU. We have UK paper options but they are more expensive so one way of the other we are facing the issue of what to do with our pricing. The pressure is only one way and it's Brexit doing the pushing.
I bought a high spec santa cruz blur in 2010 for £3.5k, 11 years later you are looking at £9k for the same spec bike.
Yours and my definition of ‘same spec’ are a little different. Unless you had 12sp wireless electric shifting and carbon rims on that 2010 bike.
I bought a high spec santa cruz blur in 2010 for £3.5k, 11 years later you are looking at £9k for the same spec bike.
Yours and my definition of ‘same spec’ are a little different. Unless you had 12sp wireless electric shifting and carbon rims on that 2010 bike.
He might still have a point though - 2011 isn't the stone age - lets look at the Nomad 2 from 2008-2013:
Comparable frame design
Reverb dropper post
x11
Fox 36 - generation 2, or 3
Maxxis High-rollers
I'd agree that the design or some of these parts has probably come on a bit - but should that mean significant % prices increases? Are AXS electric components actually much more significantly expensive to manufacture? Even if they are a bit, the mark-up is probably as much about SRAM putting an increased differential over its manual XX groupset.
It wouldn't for cars - car and motoring prices are an interesting indicator. Like MTBs they are essentially a mature technology - there have been some incremental improvements since 2010 which make modern cars a bit better - but relative to incomes they haven't increased significantly in price;
Tax and insurance has gone up quite a lot mind!
At base I think the significant inflation in the mtb market is because it is an enthusiasts' pursuit - people want the next best thing, what is in fashion, bigger and better.
Some brands have a gucci appeal - people want them because they are expensive, because they are exclusive, or are believed to be exclusive.
A comparable SC ego chariot would likely be double the price now, not triple.
They've just added some super high-end offerings with a bit more mug tax applied since then.
but relative to incomes they haven’t increased significantly in price
Cars:
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-cost-cars-uk
Incomes:
Re the Nomad 2
The one linked to is Aluminium, I know there were carbon ones, but I’d wager the recent models are more durable for a similar/less weight. Plus the current gen Nomads have more in common with the V10 now they’ve change the shock mounting.
It wouldn’t have had Nx11 in 2008-2012. Or a reverb for the first couple of years.
Fox forks of that era were, being kind, hit and (mostly) miss.
Electric shifting probably isn’t much more expensive than mechanical to make, though the development of it won’t have been cheap.
A top spec 5010 v1 (essentially the 27.5 replacement for the 26” blur LT) in 2013/14 cost the thick end of 7-8k, thanks mainly to Enve rim options.
Yes prices have increased, but it’s not like you are paying 3x the money for the same performance, Nor am I saying bikes are 3x as good as 10 years ago, but they are much better and performance vs price isn’t a linear graph.
kelvin
Full Member
but relative to incomes they haven’t increased significantly in priceCars:
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-cost-cars-uk
Incomes:
Thanks Kelvin, that essentially buttresses my point.
Depending on the car segment you are looking at a 22-25% cumulative inflation over a ten year period, which is comparable to the % income increase mean/median.
We've been taking about 25% increase in a year above, probably cumulative increases of 100% plus over the decade.
Yes prices have increased, but it’s not like you are paying 3x the money for the same performance, Nor am I saying bikes are 3x as good as 10 years ago, but they are much better and performance vs price isn’t a linear graph.
I think we agree here. Performance has increase linearly, as price has increased exponentially. As one might expect for a luxury product.
Just to counter the doom and gloom, you can get far nicer bikes to ride for less money than a decade or two ago thanks to better geometry, bigger wheels and dropper posts. Modern hardtails are particularly great value as you free up more budget for an awesome fork.
I think we agree here. Performance has increase linearly, as price has increased exponentially. As one might expect for a luxury product.
Difference is I accept it as part of progress, you seem to take issue with it. That it’s an expensive, or ‘luxury’, product has nothing to do with it. Prices have increased at every level save for supermarket BSO’s, but so has performance to a lesser extent.
Difference is I accept it as part of progress, you seem to take issue with it. That it’s an expensive, or ‘luxury’, product has nothing to do with it. Prices have increased at every level save for supermarket BSO’s, but so has performance to a lesser extent.
I'm not that bothered, just interested in it as a curiosity.
I would prefer if the inflation rate for my hobby was a bit closer to the average.
As people have said above, the smart move is to buy non-cutting edge, discounted, second hand.
It's gone up for mid price performance bikes too, albeit not as much as for halo models.
We’ve been taking about 25% increase in a year above, probably cumulative increases of 100% plus over the decade.
Some equivalent cars have increases 60% in 7 years, some 21% in a year... pretty much like bikes.
I posted those links for comparison to the RAC report... yes people aren't spending that much more on purchasing their car... as the RAC say... BUT... they are not buying equivalent cars... they are buying lower market cars to avoid price increases.
It's the same with bikes... you could buy a good bike for £2K in 2013... you could still buy a good bike for £2K in 2020... you can still buy a good bike for £2K now... just not the same bike. People have a budget... they can still get a bike for their budget... but lower spec.
Personally, I've embraced Deore brakes, gears and cassettes... they're flipping great value.
They’ll just try and push us into the lease market like a lot of products. I’ll not go above £3k I think, even £2.5k seemed like massive money for a toy, especially as I should have bought something more xc.
Hope the bubble bursts and I can pick up a bargain epic evo
dyls
Free MemberI bought a high spec santa cruz blur in 2010 for £3.5k, 11 years later you are looking at £9k for the same spec bike.
I guess this was sarcasm but can't really tell...