Am I tight - or are...
 

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[Closed] Am I tight - or are prices getting silly

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I've been after a Cotic Rocket for a while & am getting to the point where I thought I would be able to afford £2700 to drop on a new bike. However having looked today the cheapest Cotic Rocket is now nudging £4,000
Looking at the Whyte post earlier on this week as well the prices for them seem to be an additional £500 on last years.

And we're told following Brexit is when things are going to get even more expensive...

Not much point to my post really than just having a whinge about the cost of nice things.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 10:59 am
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I cant actually afford the level of gear I would like , I can still afford to partake because I do need the latest wonder gnar bike.

The pot of cheap suppliers is drying up CRC have nothing I need same with Wiggle and Merlin and the prices are climbing with those folks.

Is it silly , I think 4-5k for a bike definitely ,same with ebikes ,I can buy a motorcycle for the cost of a bike with a battery and motor, you never know though if its too expensive to buy it from abroad we might have to resort to making things in the UK again?


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:05 am
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I could sort you a rocketmax, 29er wheels and a pike ultimate for under your budget! 😂
Stealth what?!

I kind of agree that bikes are pricey! But there are cheap ways around everything


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:10 am
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The premium stuff seems to be getting silly, there is still value at the other end:

e.g. carbon/fox factory trail bikes ~£3.5k
https://www.chainreactioncycles.com/vitus-escarpe-29-crx-mountain-bike-2021/rp-prod195293
https://www.radon-bikes.de/en/mountainbike/fullsuspension/slide-trail/slide-trail-100-2021/


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:22 am
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Prices are going up rapidly, been looking at a new trail bike and my budget of around £2k would have been fine for what I want last year. This year I'll have to add at least another £500 on to it an after the new year possibly another £500. Taking your Rocket example as I bought one of the first Gen 3 ones 2 1/2 years ago my bike was £3600 with the following spec:

Helm Fork
DBiL shock
Hope wheels
Deore brakes (had Hope to go on so they went on the old bike)
WTB tyres
RaceFace Dropper
XT drivetrain
RaceFace Turbine cranks
Everything else was standard.

That spec now is £5k! Not having a go at Cotic, they have to make money and as they sell out of most stuff they're not overpriced, but that is a huge jump that is well above inflation. I think we just hit a sweet spot of value the last 5 years or so and now things are readjusting. No bargains from grey imports, the direct sales effect has diminished, lack of oversupply and a Brexit/Covid double-whammy means it will be a while before we get back to the value we had before.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:23 am
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All the mfrs are struggling to make components fast enough, and every bike co is ordering more of them this year. Supply and demand innit.

However.....

Try the facebook mtb for sale boards

They are flooded with 2020 bikes hardly used. bought on a whim.

You may not get a cotic, but you will get a hefty discount off a nice bike for that money.

I've nearly spent £2K every day last week on a well priced bike that popped up, had to leave the groups.....


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:23 am
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Buy something cheaper or take advantage of Cotic's 0% 2-year deal?

But do note the value of Sterling over the last couple of years, down pretty much 20% against major currencies.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:26 am
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Cotic FS frame/bike prices have jumped dramatically over the last two or three years.

From one POV, why shouldn't they be on par with Orange price wise (lack of LBS middleman cut notwithstanding)?

From another POV, it's nice for them that frames are being built in the UK, and they have a smoother supply pipeline, but many of us have no problem at all with riding cheaper Taiwanese welded frames.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:31 am
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I may be wrong but didn’t their prices change when they moved production to Five Land Bikes? If so, not entirely surprising when moving to a small scale independent UK based frame builder. As is often the way in life you get what you pay for.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:31 am
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Please don't think I'm having ago at Cotic - far from it, I want a Rocket, & I understand as a premium brand they will be more expensive.

I bought my LS Soul nearly 3yrs ago now - it was about £1800 & I expect prices to go up incrementally.
It just seems that they've taken a massive jump recently - as I mentioned the Whyte bikes the G180S being £500 more expensive than the 2020 G170S


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:37 am
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From one POV, why shouldn’t they be on par with Orange price wise (lack of LBS middleman cut notwithstanding)?

My Rocket arrived with me just as Orange were announcing the Formula spec 5 which was near-identical in spec to my Rocket. It was £3k more expensive!


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:38 am
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I think you can still go for a very good budget option which does what you need. For example I'm still running 10 speed because it still does the job, I used to run an expander cog to get a 42t big cog but then 11-42 10 speed cassettes came along, now you can get an 11-46 10 speed cassette. It's much cheaper than 12 speed and doesn't require a new freehub body.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:38 am
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My Rocket arrived with me just as Orange were announcing the Formula spec 5 which was near-identical in spec to my Rocket. It was £3k more expensive!

Good point, well made.

I must confess I was thinking of the frame-only prices as I rarely buy full builds.

As is often the way in life you get what you pay for.

Country of manufacture is a bit of an intangible to the end user though. What am I getting for my extra £hundreds, apart from the warm glow of supporting a small UK business?


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:43 am
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I was looking to get a new bike this year but coronavirus has really hit our household income with me out of work for over six months, savings dried up to a puddle and now I'm working again I'm making only half as much as I was in my new job. The upside is that I work less hours so have more time to go riding midweek.

I have a very nice bike that I enjoy riding (Giant Anthem kitted out with full XT and Fox suspension) but wanted something more trail orientated as we now live near to some proper mountains. I bought a load of cheap components as spares just before the price hikes so I'm just going to run my current bike for a couple more years and rethink then.

If I was looking to get into the sport nowadays then second hand / the lower end of the market brands like Vitus would be my go to.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:45 am
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One of the few companies to buck the trend is Bird as I can still buy the latest AM9 frame for the same price I paid for mine back in Feb 2018. Okay, the frames aren’t made in the UK but that’s still good going. Some of the component prices have risen of course, but they are still managing to offer complete bikes at prices that are not a lot higher than pre-Covid times.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:50 am
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@wzzzz

Try the facebook mtb for sale boards

Got a link to the groups you're using? Every time I look on marketplace I'm seeing budget brands, nothing like 2020 premium bikes at bargain prices...


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:50 am
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I do think, as ever, that prices are rising.

I'm also of the opinion that we are in a sport that is ever more complex, with a marketing push to go that way to sell both more and at a higher price.

I only ride HT and kids/wife have second hand as that's how we afford to ride.

Add in the current global pandemic, Brexshit and more, and prices are rocketing.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:52 am
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“What am I getting for my extra £hundreds, apart from the warm glow of supporting a small UK business?”

That’s what you’re getting extra. I think that matters. You may not. But don’t you own some Oranges?!

Regarding price increases, pound sterling is far weaker than it was a decade ago. And costs in China, Taiwan etc continue to increase.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:57 am
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What am I getting for my extra £hundreds, apart from the warm glow of supporting a small UK business?

That’s often enough for many. I like supporting businesses that I can “see” and there must be a good reason they switched production as the older bikes weren’t crap in terms of QC. Part of the appeal of Cotic must be being able to do the demos, speak to the owner, pop to Calver (not just now of course) and speak about what best fits your needs.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:59 am
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And we’re told following Brexit is when things are going to get even more expensive…

Not wishing to state the obvious but the prices you're looking at from whyte etc are post brexit pricing.

Not sure on cotic but bigger brands are announcing prices they plan to hold through till this time next year.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:59 am
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One of the few companies to buck the trend is Bird as I can still buy the latest AM9 frame for the same price I paid for mine back in Feb 2018. Okay, the frames aren’t made in the UK but that’s still good going. Some of the component prices have risen of course, but they are still managing to offer complete bikes at prices that are not a lot higher than pre-Covid times.

Beat me to it! Bird FTW


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:01 pm
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intheborders
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But do note the value of Sterling over the last couple of years, down pretty much 20% against major currencies.

Where did you pluck that 20% from, over the past 2 years the pound has not moved against the dollar, it's been up it's been down but 2 years ago it was ranging around 1.30 the same as now, Euro is pretty much the same. Even if you take the dollar/pound from January 2016 up to the referendum 2016 the pound was averaging at this time 1.45 so it is only 10% down at this moment.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:05 pm
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MTB UK buy and sell

I was severely tempted by a geometron last week.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:12 pm
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That’s what you’re getting extra. I think that matters. You may not. But don’t you own some Oranges?!

I'm not saying that doesn't have value. Personally I was happy to support Cotic as a UK business when I got my Solaris, and felt some benefit from that - but I didn't feel any need to pay more to support a second UK business to actually build the frame. Especially when Taiwan is the undisputed world-leader in framebuilding.

Yes I have two Oranges. But full disclosure - I bought them both secondhand.

Having seen the build quality and felt how they ride, I would now buy a new one. They just feel more lasting than identikit carbon framed, four-bar bikes.

But then they are the only brand doing what they do (light, single pivot alu frames). If there were alternative options fromn Taiwan I may not be so virtuous when spending my limited resources.

PS. And I wouldn't buy an Orange full build unless it was heavily discounted. They have been taking the piss with their full-bike prices for years.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:13 pm
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I think you can still go for a very good budget option which does what you need. For example I’m still running 10 speed because it still does the job, I used to run an expander cog to get a 42t big cog but then 11-42 10 speed cassettes came along, now you can get an 11-46 10 speed cassette. It’s much cheaper than 12 speed and doesn’t require a new freehub body.

Surely the cost isn't in the drivetrain though?
I got a 12 speed SLX drivetrain groupset (minus cranks and brakes) for 150 brand new.
A shimano microspline FH-MT400 hub can be bought for 30 quid.
That's quite a small proportion of the 4k cost.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:14 pm
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Buy they are box shifting rapid stock movement minimum handling tiny margin prices. Those prices don't pay for anyone to do anything that takes more than a few minutes to pick a box, label and send.

Assuming you want the folks building and QCing your bike to eat and pay rent, you need to pay them to do that work not just chuck packets in the post.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:20 pm
 StuF
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I think one thing that pushes Cotic prices up is they spec a decent shock with them, down specing the shock takes nearly £500 off the price of the frame+ shock, likewise you can drop £200 if you down spec the wheels off a full build


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 12:57 pm
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Bikes are selling like hot cakes this year, so no need to discount to sell them, so manufacturers have (probably) upped their prices so their limited supply matches demand better (and they make more money).


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 1:05 pm
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How about a 'non fancy badge' bike ? Big names are expensive full stop.

You'd get a blooming good Bird for much less (and that's a Badge).

I've a non-badge FS that was less than half the price of a badge, and I get better components.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 1:08 pm
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Economics is a factor, back in 2016 the pound significantly devalued against the countries where bicycle components are manufactured, and where materials for local production comes from. Therefore the £ cost of bikes increased.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 1:24 pm
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The base standard RocketMax build is £3600, Rocket is £4300. So you could probably get well under £4k. As above, supply chain challenges, additional demand, Brexit and ongoing Covid issues seem likely to push prices up further next year, so most setting their 2021 RRP are probably going to price this in.

On the UK thing, I work in specialist UK manufacturing, broadly similar principles to UK bike industry. So for me it is definitely a factor in purchases, but not the most significant one and I'm more likely to buy S/H on full bikes. I'm lucky in that I can afford the choice though, other choices equally valid.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 1:24 pm
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It's not just bikes. The price of everything across the board has shot up. We bought a house last year so we've had to buy a lot of stuff I've never even heard of and some of the prices are eye watering.

I built my Geometron over 3 years ago when I was a mechanic and had access to trade pricing. All I've bought since that time is tyres and brake pads.

Even though I've got a wandering eye and there's other stuff I'd like to try I'm not willing to pay the prices. I like the new Stumpjumper Evo but the mid range model is 5 grand. Absolutely not happening.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 1:45 pm
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Cotic is a premium U.K. brand though - and building in nice quality steel. So it’s always going to be more expensive.

As above, if you go with something like Bird it’s still a U.K. business designing and assembling bikes here - just they aren’t a U.K. manufacturer of frames.

With a quick play for £2800 you get an AM9 with a Pike Ultimate, DT Swiss M1900 wheels, deluxe ultimate shock, deore brakes and drivetrain, Bird dropper, bird finishing kit and Maxxis tyres. That still seem like good value to me.

The only companies beating that at present are German direct sales and maybe Vitus. Although it looks like they’ve now gone carbon mainframe on the Escarpe and Sommet which has meant the components are probably lower spec than on their equivalently priced alloy frames.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 1:47 pm
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Some things never change!!

11 year old Cotic thread


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 2:06 pm
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Cotic is a premium U.K. brand though – and building in nice quality steel. So it’s always going to be more expensive.

Not really. They used to be on par with many other brands.

Actually, they still are - as prices have gone up across the board. They're probably better value than brands like Kona and Transition.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 2:20 pm
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Over the past 3.5 year GBP>USD has dropped 10-12% and GBP>euro has dropped almost 40%

in 2016 My German colleagues were on €70-75k (average) and us Brits were on around £50k (€70-75k) so about right. Now they're on around €85k and we're on £52k (€58k euro). That's a big slice of income differential in 3.5 years.

If I moved to Europe with my current employer my salary would be under €50k and I wouldn't be able to afford housing in/around Munich. I'd have to quit and be re-hired to be on a commensurate wage to my peers.

Thanks Brexit!


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 2:22 pm
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Where did you pluck that 20% from, over the past 2 years the pound has not moved against the dollar, it’s been up it’s been down but 2 years ago it was ranging around 1.30 the same as now, Euro is pretty much the same. Even if you take the dollar/pound from January 2016 up to the referendum 2016 the pound was averaging at this time 1.45 so it is only 10% down at this moment.

1.55 to 1.30 - near enough 20%

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y

And it was 2.5 when I started work...

Not wishing to state the obvious but the prices you’re looking at from whyte etc are post brexit pricing.

Which bit of the last couple of years have you missed...


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 2:29 pm
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Sorry intheborders but you said in the last couple of years, that's 2018, the highest for that year was 1.43. You'd have to go back to 2015 to get to 1.55, that's 5 years ago.

Also 1.55 to 1.30 is 16%

If you realy want a headline figure over the laqst 10 years the Euro has fallen against the dollar slightly more than the pound.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 3:03 pm
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Which bit of the last couple of years have you missed…

I'm assuming you mean you doubt it'll happen on Dec 31st, another deadline come and gone? Anyone pricing anything into 2021 on that basis is likely to get a very nasty surprise if boris turns out not to be the genius and brilliant prankster a little part of me still hopes he is.
So yeah, anything being priced as 2021 range will be working on the theory brexit will happen, they'll probably even have a price list ready in cabbages and sub denominations there of in case it goes full mad max.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 3:03 pm
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Which bit of the last couple of years have you missed…

Think his point was on pricing on 2021 bikes - which logically as a business you should be attempting to set based on post Brexit costs.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 3:09 pm
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No deal or poor deal the £ will slip again. We are not going back to previous low prices within the next ten years.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 3:28 pm
 mrmo
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One thing I have noticed, and not really 100% sure why, been looking at an RS Sid SL select, German retailers seem to have stock but the UK, no where I have come across, and this carries across a lot of items.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 4:21 pm
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Germans seemed to have stock of Schwalbe tyres when I was buying the other day. Nothing I wanted in the UK at all.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 4:49 pm
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No deal or poor deal the £ will slip again.

Not necessarily. I think you'll see a slight rise in the pound when the no deal/deal situation is settled. If it's a deal and a decent one for the UK, you might see a decent rise. Don't forget the pound rose post referendum. Markets like certainty, even if it's a bad certainty.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 5:01 pm
 mrmo
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If it’s a deal and a decent one for the UK

It won't be, but yes certainty would be welcomed.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 5:33 pm
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The pound and the stock market are already priced at a no deal, so if there is a deal both will probably rise a fair amount, if no deal not so much.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 5:42 pm
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Don’t forget the pound rose post referendum.

No it didn't, it plunged. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36611512


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 6:52 pm
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Got to say, with some of the prices of bikes at the moment I see why more and more people are going down the Marino route, might be doing that myself as their prices are really hard to beat


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 7:05 pm
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My Rocket arrived with me just as Orange were announcing the Formula spec 5 which was near-identical in spec to my Rocket. It was £3k more expensive!

Hmmmm, how close? The Orange was XX1 groupo with XO crank, carbon wheels, Renthal carbon bars, Fox Factory Transfer post, Hope hubs, Saint brakes, etc, etc..... Considering the frames cost about the same Cotic have done well to match the spec on a non discounted bike for 3k less. Not saying Orange don't know how to charge but I think Canyon and the like would do well to offer that spec for £3800, let alone Cotic.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 7:39 pm
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As for price rises it's eye watering really.

When did good but mass produced steel hard tail frames jump from £350 to £600+?
When did £1500 bikes start getting spec'd with £700 bike forks?
When did a made of cheese rear mech cost £80, a low range cost £100 and top of the range £670!
Oh, and when did my current frame cost the same as the equivalent full bike (in the sale) 4 years ago?


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 7:55 pm
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It doesn't help that a notable part of the demographic who are seemingly attracted to the sport is wellmpaid middle management/wealthy professional people. Just look at the £500k dream house thread and I imply no criticism of those posting but it's pretty clear there's a fair few who aren't frightened of significant debt or who earn a really big wedge or both when you see people saying you can't get a house with good riding somewhere nice for £500k.

The industry has clocked this and in its desire to incessantly grow sales and make bigger profits it's piling more and more time into the 'next big thing' - got to be lighter, got to be stronger, more travel, more carbon, more gears ... Less longevity, more breakages, more obsolescence, more new bikes sold.

This isn't the UK pricing problem (which has been elegantly covered by supply/demand, exchange rates, commodity prices etc above) but it is I think part of a systematic shift towards more and more expensive products and while that's also leading to good trickle down we are also conditioned in our own minds to certain "specs" and I struggled for ages to look at kit below XT because I always bought XT and I didn't want to "downgrade". The thing is that Zee or SLX wasn't really a downgrade when it was two years newer.

Having grown up with a love of bikes touring, mountain biking, road riding I get a little fed up of the ever shifting goal posts, the disappearance/replacement of standards at the drop of a CAD programme - some of which are a retrograde step in function and reliability and questionable durability.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 8:17 pm
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No it didn’t, it plunged

And then rose. By mid 2017 it was higher than it was at referendum. The outcome hadn't changed, brexit was still on but the pound rose.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 8:43 pm
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And then rose.

Well yes, above a 7 year low, it tanked in 08/09 and never really recovered

From https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-EUR

But its certainly not recovered to 15/16 levels. I was getting day trades at 1.30 before the referendum took hold and it started to drop (spike) nose dive


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 9:19 pm
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Quite apart from the £s value there's the small detail that whatever trading deals the EU has with various Far East Counties will cease to include Britain. As for the £, well prior to the Referendum a bag of organic Basmati was costing £3.25. It's now £5.....


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 9:49 pm
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We're getting off topic here, are prices getting silly, yes. Sweet F A to do with exchange rates, strength of the pound and Brexit.
Bike prices have rocketed all over the globe because they've realised we'll pay whatever they charge. Almost every company is getting full suspension frames knocked up in Taiwan for a few hundred quid then charging premium prices 4 or 6 times that for the finished product with oem shocks that cost them a fraction of what a shop would charge us.
They saved a fortune moving production to the far east but customers saw zero reduction in cost but arguably in some cases a reduction in alignment quality.
Chainreaction have sold Nukeproof mega frames for as little as £750 and still probably made a good profit, in the past few years that frames rrp as increased by over £600 I'd love to know what they pay for them, but no insiders will spill the beans.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 10:04 pm
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And then rose. By mid 2017 it was higher than it was at referendum. The outcome hadn’t changed, brexit was still on but the pound rose.

Not true against the Euro. What currency exchange are you looking at?

GBP2EUR


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 10:07 pm
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Referendum a bag of organic Basmati was costing £3.25. It’s now £5…..

Ah the STW equivalent of bread and milk!


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 10:08 pm
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Transition Scout- 4 grand bike with SRAM NX. Crazy.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 10:13 pm
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As far as I know we don't grow rice, we buy it in from the far east, unlike bread and milk. And it's not subject to the old chestnut of us paying more and more for technology. It's just an indicator of the £s waining buying power.
Whilst being surprised at the price of topline suspension bikes we get more for our wages than we did back in the early 90s, a lot more, and that's down to cheaper manufacturing and distribution costs as a result of modern technological advances.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 10:17 pm
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Almost every company is getting full suspension frames knocked up in Taiwan for a few hundred quid then charging premium prices 4 or 6 times that for the finished product with oem shocks that cost them a fraction of what a shop would charge us.

Worse, at shop retail prices end customer paying more like 10+ times the original cost. What we end up paying is layer upon layer of profit and then a load of tax. There are companies now that just charge what they like. Even to the point where Santa Cruz, Specialized and others have been caught out selling bikes for more than it would cost to buy the frame and build it with the same parts yourself at full price. The cycle industry in particular is way overpriced and takes customers for mugs. Margins in some other retail industries are dire by comparison.


 
Posted : 29/10/2020 11:22 pm
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If you use a chart with a bit more granularity it's pretty obvious. But the larger point is that it's not necessarily negative events that cause drops, it's the uncertainty prior to the event. The biggest drop in recent history wasnt caused by the referendum, it was an erroneous article in the FT

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/images/2020/the-british-pound-brexit-and-the-pandemic-fig01.jp g" />


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 2:32 am
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If you use a chart with a bit more granularity it’s pretty obvious.

What's pretty obvious, even from your chart is that the post referendum high point is lower than the the pre referendum one, that the post referendum high is actually only higher than - the at that point - unusual lows pre referendum (the dip in early 16 I think correlates to the announcement of the referendum) but regardless your chart is USD to EUR and USD to GBP.

(and the EUR USD rate in 2015 is dropping on the back of the Greek issue largely so more bad news. Www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/11/euro-12-year-low-gainst-the-dollar)


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 6:56 am
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I am tight AND prices are getting silly

Not just the top end prices but the middle ground. The lower end stuff (around £1000) is still good value and seems to be better than many years ago.

Luckily I ride a very basic bike and source and build myself so always get discounted parts - because I am tight.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 7:13 am
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Surely if bikes are being sold for 10x the cost there would be a couple of companies massively undercutting the market? I know there are some cheaper brands like canyon or Vitus but if someone sold for X2 the cost they would sell more than anyone else


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 7:45 am
 eddd
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With a budget of £2,700 for a British enduro-trail FS, you should have loads of choice if you look at nearly new.

I got my Five secondhand but absolutely unused - to be honest, I suspect it was creative accounting from the previous owner using cyclescheme - but hey, if it gets top rate taxpayers 40% off and that gets me 50% off for a practically new bike, that's good with me!


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 8:13 am
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A question - has the price increase of post-brexshit imports narrowed the gap between UK made and imported goods.

For example, have Shimano XT brakes gone up more than Hope?


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 8:20 am
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Surely if bikes are being sold for 10x the cost there would be a couple of companies massively undercutting the market?

There would also be some very wealthy bike companies.

The issue is in part people see a shock for sale for £350 with an rrp of 700. they assume the cost of that shock is massively lower to a frame maker than crc (which it likely isn't unless the bike Co is giant). They then assume that because crc can sell the shock at £350 on its own then that's what it should cost on a frame. They forget the bike co has to check it, handle it, warehouse it, assemble it onto a frame, QC it repack it, and ship it plus make money on all those things. Crc then whacks their 40% on the whole thing and it's up at rrp fairly quickly. That's before you've paid designer's, testers marketeers, audi driving it consultants and so on.

The cost of parts in my particular line of work is about 10% of the breakeven on the low cost stuff, about 70% on the high. It takes just as long to build something cheap as expensive, just as much warehouse space etc. But market perception is A is cheap B is expensive, so I make much less margin on A but I make a much bigger margin on B it support that.

[Made up numbers alert] The market will bear 400% markup on a 10k super bike that costs 1200in parts and 800 in labour etc to make. They won't bear that on a bike that cost 1k total because its only got £200 in parts so it's "a cheap bike" so the markup is 60% despite the reality that both bikes should have about 200% on them.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 8:22 am
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exchange rate, inflation, demand>supply, brexit, covid.

shop around. life is full of choices. personally i'm not fussed about cars, so my car costs me zero a month, whereas many of my colleagues lease posh cars £200-400 a month.

same with kids, i have friends who pay £850 a month in childcare, a £4k bike doesnt seem that expensive, 6 months of childcare.

the german sites and CRC are still selling deore/slx/XT brakes for £56-70 an end,


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 8:40 am
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they assume the cost of that shock is massively lower to a frame maker than crc (which it likely isn’t unless the bike Co is giant).

Actually it is. By quite a lot. Or at least I think it is. Of course I don't know CRCs buy price but I do know that OE vs retail trade even at small OE quantities is a massive price difference.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 8:53 am
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whereas many of my colleagues lease posh cars £200-400 a month.

same with kids,

Nah its not, that every parent I know wishes they got their kids on a sort term lease doesn't make it so.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 8:54 am
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Actually it is. By quite a lot. Or at least I think it is. Of course I don’t know CRCs buy price but I do know that OE vs retail trade even at small OE quantities is a massive price difference.

I'm sure you're in a position to give a genuine view on that though I'm guessing that a big part of the reason those shocks etc arrive in shrink wrap or grey box is they are OE?

Been a long time since I worked in tech retail but I remember back then an OEM copy of Windows cost us about 40% of a retail copy but that a retail copy certainly wasn't resellable at 50% of rrp without making a loss. (Iirc OEM was around 25% of rrp, retail was about 60% of rrp). Apples and oranges though.

I don't doubt for a second what your saying about OE vs retail costs, I just doubt that's what most of the cheap sellers are buying/paying.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:05 am
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It's just the same with other goods. I can get a perfectly good fly rod for under £100, an outstanding rod under £400 or I can pay £800 for a rod that only an expert would have an advantage with. I'm not skilled so both my roads and bikes are perfectly good [with the exception of my uber sensitive nymphing rod]. Again prices are a fraction what they were in real terms and today's inexpensive rod matches a very good one of 12 years ago, due to advances in technology.
So yes stuff is going to stay higher than it was recently but the present generation is still getting much more for their money.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:09 am
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Sorry skipped over all the exchange rate stuff, goes way over my head. Sonder bikes seem to review well and look to be pretty good VFM.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:13 am
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[Made up numbers alert] The market will bear 400% markup on a 10k super bike that costs 1200in parts and 800 in labour etc to make. They won’t bear that on a bike that cost 1k total because its only got £200 in parts so it’s “a cheap bike” so the markup is 60% despite the reality that both bikes should have about 200% on them.

interesting.

Whats the take on the profit margins on other bikes? I'd always had in my mind that having the abiity to turn out thousands of mid range hybrids, or sell £8k road bikes (they dont even have suspension, wheres the money going?) was beneficial to the companies that do it.
Compare Cube and Canyon* with the likes of Commencal, Santa Cruz, Orange, Bird who are MTB only (or nearly so).

*yes, both direct sales, wanted to avoid the big 3


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:15 am
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I agree, prices are getting silly but I keep coming back to the Boardmans for a grand. It is an awful lot of bike for the money. Similar the bossnut.

That and 2nd hand if the COVID tax disappears any time soon. I’m hoping the winter knocks this a bit as some of the used prices now are mad.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:16 am
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I’m sure you’re in a position to give a genuine view on that though I’m guessing that a big part of the reason those shocks etc arrive in shrink wrap or grey box is they are OE?

Thats indeed true, but then there's also the fact that CRC are willing to run on very low margins, so some of its OE being resold cheap as you say at something like the price on a bike, and then there's just stuff they're selling cheap but is actually retail. Its a lottery what you're buying!


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:28 am
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I have a SRAM OEM price list somewhere I will post a link to it. You will be gobsmacked how much cheaper a shock is OE than Trade even

CRC and merlin both have their own brand bikes they were able to get OE parts for

They I assume were told to stop flogging on the OE overstock to the general public


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:32 am
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I’d always had in my mind that having the abiity to turn out thousands of mid range hybrids, or sell £8k road bikes (they dont even have suspension, wheres the money going?) was beneficial to the companies that do it.

There's a lot of ways to make things beneficial though. Higher volumes tend to result in reduced costs both for stock and handling. You can operate at lower margins on higher turnover. Higher volumes insulate you better against small problems (1 warranty in 10 sales is unlucky but it's expensive, 1 in 1000k isn't). Bigger premises are cheaper and so on.

Oh and turnover is king. I'd rather make 20% on 2 million turnover than 40% on 1million.

(those mid range hybrids have gotten more expensive too)


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:33 am
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Its a lottery what you’re buying!

That's the advantage of wiggle, buy very expensive haribo, get random free bike parts.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 9:34 am
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There’s a lot of ways to make things beneficial though. Higher volumes tend to result in reduced costs both for stock and handling. You can operate at lower margins on higher turnover.

that was my thought on the hybrids - churning out containers full of middling spec city bikes funds/subsidises the comparitively low numbers of offroad wonder chariots.


 
Posted : 30/10/2020 10:23 am
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