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I was pondering buying a new bike this year but finances have dictated it'll have to wait. What is the general concensus as to when all this reduced stock will dissappear? I know a majority of it is due to the sad demise of Chiggle but there are a host of other shops knocking out some cracking deals on bikes at the moment. Next year will we see everything back to being more or less full price or will manufacturers still be making more bikes and components than they can sell and there'll still be bargains to be had a year from now?
It is a game of survival just now...how long that goes on for is anyone's guess.
I do hope there is a bit of a correction on prices and they all reduce. Aware of rising costs but some.of the price hikes feels to just be taking the pee, so survive this and the industry corrects pricing and more sales start happening.
Said from a consumers point of view and absolutely no idea of actual costs, so suspect it'll more likely be just survival.
historically these huge reductions have always existed - last years bikes at 30-50% off has been a thing for years, as have decent deals on most components. It only went away when covid was running rife, I think it'll back off a bit from where we are today but I don't think it'll ever get back to full price again
What is the general concensus as to when all this reduced stock will dissappear?
New bikes specifically? Or P&A, clothing, other accessories too?
And if new bikes only, then what category?
Most consumables are already selling nearer to RRP than they were pre-COVID once again, there was a bit of extra stock for a while in 2023 of certain things but no massive overstock on most consumables.
Certain bike categories and bike brands have been hit hard by discounting, too much supply and too little demand being the problem of course, and this is probably going to carry on for a few more months through 2024 I would suspect. Some brands and categories have already sold through on their discounted lines and are back up to or near rrp on any new stock though. It all depends as to how in vogue the bike you want to buy is as to how much discount it's likely to have on it... A friend of mine brazenly walked into a Rutland store to look at a Spesh Kenevo SL in the biggest size they do (he's 6ft4) and it was already 50% off, and he asked for a deal on it. Shocked they said it was already half price, to which he responded "how many other people my height have you had in looking at these bikes recently, I see all the S3's and S4's are gone already"... He left with the bike, and a further 10% discount for his efforts! 😂 It's certainly a buyers market still for a lot of bike brands and categories, but that is swinging back now as we go into spring and the glut of 2022-23 bikes is disappearing.
The flip side to that though, is that RRP's are now being reduced on many brands, back down to where they should have been for the last few years anyway IMO. Certain brands took COVID as an opportunity to take the piss let's be honest, and in many cases now, 40% discount off a 2022 bike is only slightly cheaper than getting the usual 10% you might be able to deal on at your LBS, off a new 2024 bike...
Remember, it's only a bargain if it suits your needs and you were going to buy it anyway. If either or both of those situations aren't true, then don't buy it!
There's quite a few warehouses full of 2022/23 bikes that need to be shifted to make room for new models before things get normalised. Mostly the big players like Spesh/Giant/Trek
When the dust settles, whenever that is, prices won’t be going back to what they were five years ago. Costs will still be higher than back in the last decade for everyone, and many were already selling with little or no profit being made, or selling at a loss (see Chiggle before the funding was pulled).
There's a really good series of podcasts put out by the Escape Collective looking into what happened to the COVID era bike industry and the fall-out. The journalist doing the research wasn't able to get many industry insiders to comment "on-the-record" but a few were ok to be interviewed and they were saying the same sort of thing that people would only say off-the-record.
Anyway, the conclusion was that the bike industry in general is monumentally shite at forecasting demand and simply doesn't collect enough data on buyers or buyers intentions.
So, what does this mean? Well, some manufacturers may be conservative producing product and not produce enough and others will over-estimate and not be able to shift stuff at full RRP. In other words, a lottery depending on how particular you are about which specific product you want....
Just get a 0% credit card and buy the bike you want in the right size and start enjoying it.
Stop trying to predict the future.
There’s a really good series of podcasts put out by the Escape Collective looking into what happened to the COVID era bike industry and the fall-out.
Anyway, the conclusion was that the bike industry in general is monumentally shite at forecasting demand and simply doesn’t collect enough data on buyers or buyers intentions.
Just been listening to some of that - seems that desperate retailers were ordering the same stock 2 or 3 times over from different distributors in the hope that one of them might be able to supply it but the distributors were taking these orders back to the factory and going "look, we've got £x million of orders!!" without stopping to think that it might only be 1/3rd of that because people were double/triple ordering, desperate to get stock in to fulfil the initial demand.
Result being that everyone has ended up with huge overstock, no demand and massive costs to store it all.
It'll take another year or so to filter through to normality and for the regular levels of supply and demand to return.
I was tempted to take up some of theses offers but there doesn't seem to be many bikes with 27.5 front and back.
I'm a relative short arse. Other people around my height with 29 out back complain about catching their crack on the rear wheel more often. I do it enough as it is.
Guess I'll stick with my old Strive from 2018....
@alpin There is the limited edition Nukeproof Stout in 27.5 for £249 frame only. If it's a hardtail you are after that is a bargain
Cheers, but nope....!
Something bouncy for the bike parks.
I just got a Whyte T140s for £1800.
I’d like to say I can’t fault it, but the dropper post is pants. And they spec’ed Shimano brakes.
But for £1800 - not bad. (Rides well)
Edit - missed the bike parks bit. I have taken it to Bike Park Wales and it was better than me if that helps.
Not a high standard to be fair.
.
Double edit - missed the 29er comment. I can sell you a small Orange Alpine 26er but that might be older than what you have.
Just been listening to some of that – seems that desperate retailers were ordering the same stock 2 or 3 times over from different distributors in the hope that one of them might be able to supply it but the distributors were taking these orders back to the factory and going “look, we’ve got £x million of orders!!” without stopping to think that it might only be 1/3rd of that because people were double/triple ordering, desperate to get stock in to fulfil the initial demand.
Additionally, some vendors has salespeople who had performance targets and rewards driven by making a "sale" to the next vendor/sector in the supply chain rather than being judged on how many units were actually sold to end consumers (us bike buyers). This had the (unintended?) consequence of encouraging "sales" to shops which couldn't hope to move all the stock they were encouraged to buy...
I've no idea whether that is still the case as I don't work in the industry but seems pretty dumb to me. I will say, though, I'm a potential beneficiary of this overstock as I'm actively looking for a new hardtail - I just gotta whittle down my shortlist of 14 possible bikes! 😄
This is the winter of bike industry discontent. It's going to be a slow drag back to any sense of normality but I expect the choice of models and discounts available is at it's highest now and may have peaked, plus seasonal demand will start picking up soon.
I can tell from the comments who does/doesn’t work in the industry….
from other threads where people think it’s just a simplistic case of supply and demand, plus over forecasting. Couldn’t be more wrong.
you can’t physically make things cheaper just because there aren’t customers wanting to buy it. There’s a base cost to manufacturing in volume so if it isn’t profitable it doesn’t get made. Volume manufacturers work on margins in single low percentages. I always used to say OEM prices are 1/6 of retail. I remember a SRAM OEM price list with elixir brakes for $8. Now I challenge you to make all those parts, assemble them and pack them on a pallet for that or even double.
sorry to disappoint but prices are going to go up and choice down. Inflation and other costs are going to make things 15-25% more expensive this year as the lack of competition willing to haemorrhage money disappears finally.
current discounts are survival and warehouse dumping
neil superstar components
you can’t physically make things cheaper just because there aren’t customers wanting to buy it. There’s a base cost to manufacturing in volume so if it isn’t profitable it doesn’t get made.
I agree but IMO the top end has gotten silly over the last decade and that's dragged everything with it.
If they squeeze cuts R&D and marketing budgets, then we'll still be riding round on thr same stuff in 5 years time, it'll just be cheaper.
So what you're saying is that if anyone is sitting on the fence about pulling the trigger on a dream build, they should just lick the stamp and send it? Because next year it'll cost them around 20% more for the same build?
What a time to be alive.
prices are going to go up and choice down
Can't recall specifics but not just in the bike industry I've noticed recently:
- We only sell 3 of the 5 variants (e.g. sizes, colours, spec level)
- We no longer sell half sizes (this was shoes)
- We sell one colour in each size
- We sell the main thing but not the parts or accessories
- We don't sell the oddball parts and adapters etc.
- The range has been "simplified" by the manufacturer
Just pulled the trigger on a Nukeproof Giga 290 frame. 60% off 😀
i’m still riding my 2011 Trek Remedy so finally going to a 29er!
"IMO the top end has gotten silly over the last decade and that’s dragged everything with it."
It's always been like that though. I paid something like 350 quid for a Bontrager Comp rigid fork circa 1991, which at todays prices is 766 quid (no pound sign on this computer....)!
IIRC I paid about 90 quid for a Merlin Ti handlebar. It was literally a titanium tube with a couple of bends, and a shim glued on. It had another bend when I landed balls first on it at a BMX track.....
As much as I like routing for the underdog, and having unusual parts when possible, IMHO the bike industry needs a LOT less brands in order for better economies of scale to kick in.
I guess where it becomes interesting is how the current glut of discounted bikes and parts impacts sales going forward, ie: if you've bought a brand new bike and a shedload of top-end components this year, does that means you won't be in the market for the same for another couple of years or more?
How often does a typical consumer buy a new bike? I guess some people will simply be on a constant 'upgrade' path, but others like me will maybe simply be bringing future purchases forward and simply won't buy the same thing in 12 months time,
I don't envy folk in the bike industry right now, it must feel unpleasantly precarious and unpredictable.
I guess where it becomes interesting is how the current glut of discounted bikes and parts impacts sales going forward,
This and price shock when overstocks are sold through and the industry gets back to workable margins does make me think it could take longer to recover than some are suggesting. Price/affordability is a barrier to transport and non enthusiast e-bike buyers who could be influential in industry recovery.
It’s always been like that though. I paid something like 350 quid for a Bontrager Comp rigid fork circa 1991, which at todays prices is 766 quid (no pound sign on this computer….)!
Has it? The modern equivalent of you early 90s bonty is probably well north of £766 in modern money...
In fact here you go:
Probably not even half as good as a 30 year old rigid MTB and they still want a grand
This and price shock when overstocks are sold through and the industry gets back to workable margins does make me think it could take longer to recover than some are suggesting.
My LBS is struggling with selling anything (thankfully he makes most of his living from repairs) but with the internet giants clearing out everything at ridiculously low prices, very few people are walking into a shop to buy tubes, chains, brake pads etc - the day-to-day really dull stuff that keeps bricks-and-mortar shops ticking over.
As much as I like routing for the underdog, and having unusual parts when possible, IMHO the bike industry needs a LOT less brands in order for better economies of scale to kick in.
Fewer brands and far far fewer "standards". But there'd need to be some collaboration across the industry for that to work and at the moment it's a constant push for one-upmanship and "well they made x but we've just developed y which is 0.2mm different but BETTERER!
My LBS doesn't actually mind internal cables - the supposed bane of the bike industry. What he does mind is needing 3000 different bearings to be able to service headsets, BBs and hubs. And because there are so many different standards, each manufacturer is only selling small numbers (because only one or two frame manufacturers are actually using that particular one) for a limited time until a new standard comes along.
Fewer brands and far far fewer “standards”. But there’d need to be some collaboration across the industry for that to work and at the moment it’s a constant push for one-upmanship and “well they made x but we’ve just developed y which is 0.2mm different but BETTERER!
This is what I was getting at.
How much did SRAM throw at DUB, all that development and marketing, when they could just have adopted 24mm like Shimano did two decades before.
There's always been expensive options, but there was a dearth of budget options last decade
e.g.
Prior to RS 35s and Marzocchi Z2s there's wasn't a burly-ish budget fork.
SRAMs sub GX offerings are still mehh, but at least GX cassettes are now <£100.
For a while there's was only Calibre selling FS bikes <£2k
The flip side to Neils "they can't make anything cheaper" is that SRAM aren't going to pick up their toys and go home, they'll just find budgets to cut. And while the relentless march of progress does deliver better bikes in the end. Would anyone really miss it if the next DUB, transmission, DI2, AXS or GRX, 35mm handlebar, slightly different dropper, never existed?
Fewer brands and far far fewer “standards”. But there’d need to be some collaboration across the industry for that to work and at the moment it’s a constant push for one-upmanship and “well they made x but we’ve just developed y which is 0.2mm different but BETTERER!
My LBS doesn’t actually mind internal cables – the supposed bane of the bike industry. What he does mind is needing 3000 different bearings to be able to service headsets, BBs and hubs.
The current glut of standards exists primarily because of industry collaboration, they love dreaming up ways to make next years kit incompatible with last year's.
And yeah of course bike shops love internal routing, it creates a whole new workstream for them when muggles can't sort their own cables out.
Has it? The modern equivalent of you early 90s bonty is probably well north of £766 in modern money…
In fact here you go:
I think he was talking about a Bontrager composite fork rather than a complete bike. I guess the modern equivalent would be something from Enve or similar boutique carbon.
How much did SRAM throw at DUB, all that development and marketing, when they could just have adopted 24mm like Shimano did two decades before.
I'm presuming they didn't have a choice and that the reason Shimanos cranks are unique in the west is because they're patented. DUB at least appears to be slightly better than GXP.
Cookeaa, yes I was just referring to a fork, not a whole bike.
I’m presuming they didn’t have a choice and that the reason Shimanos cranks are unique in the west is because they’re patented. DUB at least appears to be slightly better than GXP.
Race Face and probably other brands make 24mm BBs and cranks which are cross compatible with Shimano parts.
I totally agree SRAM are being wilfully awkward.
I totally agree SRAM are being wilfully awkward
Watched a video review of the new SRAM Maven brakes yesterday. It turns out SRAM have put little tabs on the bottom of the brake pads, the sole purpose of which seems to be to foul the mounting spindle of Shimano brakes rotors...
i bought both my scott mtb at around 40% in the years pre covid. it was normal to be able to get hefty discounts
i honestly think retail prices for bikes, and many other things have reached piss taking levels. often the discounts take it down to what i think is actually a reasonable price.
ive gone from spending several k per annum on bike stuff to just repairs and maintence to my ageing fleet due to the escalation of prices. even if i could afford it, i wont pay due to the sheer pisstaking nature of the increases. inflation whatever, bike bits are not a necessity and i wont be rinsed out for buying them.
cant be alone. if shops & suppliers fail sobeit.
hopefully after this ugly period of adjustment we will go back to a fair price for a fair product.
i honestly think retail prices for bikes, and many other things have reached piss taking levels. often the discounts take it down to what i think is actually a reasonable price.
Same here. I have never and probably will never pay RRP for a bike.
The prices keep going up and up and everyone howls "Ow much!?!?" but those same bikes are almost half price less than a year later.
I'm convinced the discounts are built in.
hopefully after this ugly period of adjustment we will go back to a fair price for a fair product.
I had a good laugh at that.
I was always a discount hunter, but some brands actually do ask a reasonably fair price
I was happy to pay RRP for my Bird frame. Though I'm not sure if RRP is actually a thing with d2c brands? 🤔
“ Watched a video review of the new SRAM Maven brakes yesterday. It turns out SRAM have put little tabs on the bottom of the brake pads, the sole purpose of which seems to be to foul the mounting spindle of Shimano brakes rotors…”
Is that not to help you pull the pads out because they’re bottom-loading, not top-loading (to make the caliper stiffer)?
But I agree that SRAM and Shimano have an annoying habit of rarely sharing standards.
I had a good laugh at that.
glad your minding this situation amusing, I'm certainly not. The huge increases across the board have not just been driven by necessity but by massive profiteering by some firms that then feeds into everything else having to increase/-.
Like I said less than 5 years ago 40% off a non pisstaking retail price was normal. My scott spark rc was around 3k and it was xtr etc... all top end stuff. My scale was a similar discount. Both shops I bought from are still (currently) trading. Now we talk about 40% discounts on double retail prices of 5 years ago as survive
As a consumer I no longer have the sort of money for even half decent mid range stuff
@DT78 - I think you misunderstand me. I just found your notion of "hopefully after this ugly period of adjustment we will go back to a fair price for a fair product" a little unlikely.
To borrow a phrase often seen on various cycling forums, it's worth what someone will pay for it.
See also… it’s not worth making if people will only pay you less than it costs to make.
It’s not just cycling, but in many other markets, where people are mistaking cost driven inflation for demand driven inflation (and “profiteering”). Long term… prices can not return to yesterday’s levels with today’s costs… unless it’s by winding companies up and ignoring the losses.
I've not seen the Mavens for sale yet, anyone else?
Jeepers. That's a chunk isn't it.
I cant see that they are going to be that much better than RSCs or Saints for the extra cost but some will pay it
WhenI click on the link above they are priced at €720 rrp, but selling at €721.45? Funny given how the thread is talking about pricing and here this is priced at above the rrp 🤣