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Despite the protestations this has more to do with the post covid recession/ inflation than Brexit. It has been affecting the industry globally – hence the cut price fire sale on so many e-bikes. E-bikes are now the casual market – nobody will buy mid priced manuals.
I'd be interested if anyone has any actual stats on this.
I wouldn't like to predict who it will be, and I don't want to see anyone out of a job, but I'm not surprised.
In terms of Orange, to my mind their offering is/was just too messy; I've looked at their website this morning and there are SO many options and similar looking bikes. I'm no economist or production expert, but surely they'd have been better off with less options on the table, holding less stock, offering less customisation and selling higher volume at a more reasonable price? The StageEVO on offer at £3,680 ish has low to middle end componentry and has been reduced by nearly a grand.
I think high end bikes (and components) have just got beyond most people now.
Someone suggested Canyon. From the article linked:
Canyon recorded a net loss of £1.7million (€2m, $2.2m) in the first nine months of 2023, according to the latest financial report published by its key stakeholder, GBL.
This is down from a net profit of £25million (€29m, $31.7m) in the same period in 2022.
This sounds to me like they've done a decent job of minimising losses in the worst year ever.
Perhaps they'll do some belt-tightening but I would expect them to stay in business and get back in a strong position.
Brexit 😂
thisisnotaspoon
I’d be interested if anyone has any actual stats on this.
No stats, but very much what I hear anecdotally from folks in the bike business. hard to shift anything not E
No stats, but very much what I hear anecdotally from folks in the bike business. hard to shift anything not E
Can't remember what biking podcast it was but I saw a clip from it last week that said ebike sales currently outnumber bike sales by 9 to 1
Niner or Jamis. Consistently a few years behind other brands and just don't see any. Although obviously someone must buy them or the companies wouldn't have lasted this long.
Are brands like Pivot really big in the US or something? Just don't see them and they don't make cheap bikes either.
Are brands like Pivot really big in the US or something?
Yeah. Am on the owners FB page (I had one, MrsTH still does) and it’s very US centric.
ebike sales currently outnumber bike sales by 9 to 1
Is everyone else a lot more cash rich than I am or just getting in to debt for the sake of a hobby?
Is everyone else a lot more cash rich than I am or just getting in to debt for the sake of a hobby
have you seen the number of Range Rovers driving around? Debt is just a number baby.
Can’t remember what biking podcast it was but I saw a clip from it last week that said ebike sales currently outnumber bike sales by 9 to 1
I thought that sounded mental so I googled it, couldn't find a UK figure but in Germany where they love a bit of detailed number crunching it's about 550,000:150,000, so definitely in the multiples rather than fractions.
Begs the question though where are they all? I guess like fat bikes and gravel they're a big deal if you're selling bikes, but don't actually dilute the bikes in use all that much.
Agree with mrmoofoo.
Everything is now ebike. No mid range bread and butter bikes.
I'd love to see the spends at each price point as a ratio.
Riddled. Great word. Tell me you don't like ebikes without telling me you don't like ebikes.
“There are loads out there. Surrey Hills, Rogate, FoD all riddled with them. Maybe accentuated if you are on a regular bike as you see more going past up the hills since they are significantly quicker”
I had my first outing to the Surrey Hills in years at the weekend and although I saw plenty of e-bikes I saw loads of normal bikes too. And I can’t recall any e-bikes overtaking me (I wasn’t on my ebike!)
When my own ebike was new I remember taking it to Puddletown Forest and repeatedly passing the same people - hopefully they realised it was the same single electric assisted rider and not loads of separate ebikers!
ebike sales currently outnumber bike sales by 9 to 1
95% of these won't be high end £5k+ e mountain bikes, they'll be Decathlon specials with a rear motor hub and a 150 Wh battery under the rear rack.
The mass market for e bikes is people nipping to the shops for a loaf of bread and some milk.
I was out for a walk on Saturday morning around Ladybower and Win Hill area. Got passed by dozens of bikes and e-bikes were outnumbering normal bikes by 10:1 easily. And these are Spesh/Santa Cruz/Orbea, proper MTB's not Decathlon specials or Deliveroo Mad Max missiles.
Is everyone else a lot more cash rich than I am ...
I wonder this every day while I'm walking to work watching people razzing their Porche's, Beemers and Range Rovers in heavy traffic. Not to mention the sheer amount of VW T6's being used as family cars. Everyone is either vastly richer than me or debted up to the eyeballs.
Alot will be on pcp
Some will be owned outright
Some will be owned by people extending their mortgage when money was cheaper, to facilitate the purchase of a better car.
Surely most bike sales are kids bikes. I’m prepared to believe mountain bike sales are majority ebike. But what about road bikes and gravel bikes?
This says ebike sales, outside MTB, are falling
https://road.cc/content/news/uk-bike-sales-fall-even-further-20-year-low-303565
This older article has bikes as 30%
https://cyclingindustry.news/uk-bike-sales-cargo-bike-growth/
So has anyone got a link to ebike sales stats in the uk
Riddled. Great word. Tell me you don’t like ebikes without telling me you don’t like ebikes.
@Mister-P I own a Rise and an E-161, I rather like them and am responsible for a little bit of the riddling.
epeatedly passing the same people – hopefully they realised it was the same single electric assisted rider and not loads of separate ebikers!
Good point, I may have to reduce my estimate on the numbers
The amount of companies out there offering 170mm bikes, 160mm bikes, 140mm bikes and 120mm bikes is mad.
the theory there is that is you don’t make a bike in a given travel category, then you loose a sale. a way to grow your sales is to widen the range that you offer.
i can recall a company saying in reply to the question, “are you going to do a short travel version?”, that they had no plans to as the frame would be barely any lighter and the pedalling performance would be barely any better. they now make bikes in 3 of those suspension categories.
(not going to mention the name as i don’t want to put it in a thread about companies closing down)
Are brands like Pivot really big in the US or something
in a similar vein, if you went for a ride in Bellingham, Washington you’d get the impression that Kona was a thriving company.
On the flip side, does this mean we might see a resurgence in the local custom frame builder?
Isn't the point that most People aren't getting richer?
All the talk about people acquiring eebs and range rovers on credit is only half the story, they signed up for those deals a year or two back. There's always a staggered effect with downturns isn't there?
Businesses go to the wall in various sectors as spending reduces, unemployment rises, inflation spikes etc, and all of that ultimately means all of these big money, discretionary spends eventually dry up, as clearly evidenced by companies like Orange and chiggle going bust.
Give it another year and I'm sure the big brands will have rediscovered the way to sell a 'value proposition' again. Why do you think Shimano made a point of consolidating their bargain-mid ranges into 'CUES' last year?
The decisions being made (mostly by the big boys) today will manifest in the market 12-18 months later, just like the supply chain choices of 2021/22 ended up affected market in 2023/24.
Intense
Haven’t noticed one in the wild since I sold mine in 2020
Weird, they're popping up everywhere here in Oz. We have a local race team that all ride them, sponsored, and that started in 2023. Local bike shop used to sell Spesh, Kona, Whyte, now it's virtually all Intense with a bit of Spesh.
Niner or Jamis. Consistently a few years behind other brands and just don’t see any.
Niner are quite popular here in CO. I see more of them than Orange and Cotic on the trails. Not surprising as they are based in Fort Collins. But for perspective.
And they have an ebike.
Frog bikes blamed half a million losses on Brexit...
TBF, if we want a homegrown bike industry, there needs to be protection for it. e.g. tariffs on imports or grants for companies like Orange.
There is; both of those although it was better pre-brexit.
I've not read everything on the story yet, but does this mean Orange are done for good then? There's still a chance that they could downsize and survive or perhaps be bought out?
Something I missed when I skimmed the original STW story - they were losing money during the COVID boom
Accounts show that even during the pandemic boom, they filed a pre-tax loss of nearly half a million pounds.
That's ominous - if they couldn't make money during that period, when people were crying out for frames, then there's not much hope - appreciate supply issues might have been a problem, but really not good for them
Think I mentioned it earlier but on another forum a bike shop owner has spoken to someone at Orange and they seem pretty optimistic that they will be okay.
Alot will be on pcp
Some will be owned outright
Some will be owned by people extending their mortgage when money was cheaper, to facilitate the purchase of a better car.
The vast majority on PCP / lease deals, no one in their right mind buys a top end car cash, unless it a tax write down to negate profit within your limited company set up.
Same again with the mortgage thing, why would you lump a quickly depreciating asset on your mortgage when you can use the equity to free up other credit liabilities allowing a PCP / lease deal on an expensive car.
But we're getting away from the point here, the post 2012 Olympics boom is gone, brands and / or their owners seem to have across the board ballsed up stock levels based on what they were selling a few years ago and MTB'ing is a niche sport with a small market option / appeal, even more so when you're trading on "made in Britain from actual metal" ideas.
if they couldn’t make money during that period, when people were crying out for frames, then there’s not much hope
I suspect being a UK business they got very behind on building frames when the UK shut down.
Think I mentioned it earlier but on another forum a bike shop owner has spoken to someone at Orange and they seem pretty optimistic that they will be okay.
Really glad to hear that, even if it's only hearsay.
Businesses go to the wall in various sectors as spending reduces, unemployment rises, inflation spikes etc, and all of that ultimately means all of these big money, discretionary spends eventually dry up, as clearly evidenced by companies like Orange and chiggle going bust.
I think "Gradually then Suddenly" is the phrase.
“How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
From a riding group of about ten friends only one of them had an orange and that was bought second hand. It's a shame it's gone this way but doesn't really surprise me. If they had bosch motors on their ebikes that might have helped too but it seems shimano ones are avoided by anyone who does a bit of research prior to a purchase.
Is everyone else a lot more cash rich than I am or just getting in to debt for the sake of a hobby?
Don't forget people exist outside the 'scene'! My non-cyclist aunt and uncle, 70, just bought ebikes to potter about on. A colleague got a cargo bike to get little Johnny to nursery, to replace a car. There are loads in the bike racks at work now. I see a lot of commuters round my way going past on Van Moofs and sensible looking ebikes with mudguards.
Ebikes have expanded the cycling market imo, rather than just eating into it.
If they had bosch motors on their ebikes that might have helped too
Like this?
https://www.orangebikes.com/bikes/patriot-le/2024
Or this?
https://www.orangebikes.com/bikes/phase-evo-le/2024
etc.
Orange make bikes using all the major motor systems... they offer more ebike options than most.
but it seems shimano ones are avoided by anyone who does a bit of research prior to a purchase.
Shimano motors are great. And getting better with each iteration. Madison's support top notch. Internet research is biased against them due to their prevalence. All motor systems have caused people issues (and some people are hoping for the same reliability rate as bikes without motors... that'll never happen) including Bosch, but the Shimano motor moans happen more often as there are so many out there (and sometimes it's just the same people complaining over and over again, banging the negative drum as they feel let down, making the reputation look much worse).
kelvin
If they had bosch motors on their ebikes that might have helped too
Like this?
https://www.orangebikes.com/bikes/patriot-le/2024
/blockquote>Wow - starts at 9,500 EUR. Similar spec aluminium Orbea Wild is 7,000 Euro
if they couldn’t make money during that period, when people were crying out for frames, then there’s not much hope
They quickly ran out of HT's then couldn't get any more frames. At one point the website had expected delivery in over 12 months. I imagine they also ran out of components too as they were offering the full suss Halifax frames as rolling chassis. If you haven't got the parts and try not to over stock then the Covid supply issues are going to kick you harder in the arse I guess? Still got to pay all the bills even if you have nothing to sell.
Really glad to hear that, even if it’s only hearsay.
From a reliable source who stocks Orange, so hopefully.
All motor systems have caused people issues (and some people are hoping for the same reliability rate as bikes without motors… that’ll never happen) including Bosch, but the Shimano motor moans happen more often as there are so many out there (and sometimes it’s just the same people complaining over and over again, banging the negative drum as they feel let down, making the reputation look much worse)
(as a non-user of ebikes) - Isn't the Shimano problem to do with lack of serviceability rather than initial reliability ?
(that said, I've no feeling for how different Shimano's overall product is to other big suppliers)
Which Shimano motors?
Think I've got a Steps e8000 on my Bullit.
What are the issues?
Re. number of ebikes on the trails. Was in Finale for the last 3 and a bit months, mostly hanging around in le Manie. Pretty much any bike you saw being ridden up was an ebike. Perhaps 1 or 2 in 20 were "analogue". However, on the shuttles it was the other way round.
Spent the summer in the alps and it was about 50:50 with regards to bikes being pedalled up.
The Orange website is now splashed :-/
I ordered a t shirt Sunday, it’s arriving tomorrow, I obviously just got under the wire. My dream of an Orange single pivot will have to wait..
Really sad. I think just as much of the challenge is company founders retiring, selling and the new owners not investing in R&D or simply giving up for better opportunities elsewhere. This co made dream bikes for me as a kid but nothing I’d touch in the last 10yrs. Compare to say Santa Cruz who were making similar style frames in the 90’s but invested heavily in R&D and moved with the times.
When did Santa Cruz get bought by the huge conglomerate and become one of their offerings? I think that probably helped with the investing in R&D part - R&D is very expensive and can lead to a lot of money being wasted as things don't pan out...being part of a larger organisation helps with that kind of cost outlay...I don't think Orange is part of anything bigger than itself, so R&D is a very expensive thing to support whilst trying to sell kit.
Saying that, R&D is vital to keep offering things that people want, so it isn't really something that can be ignored.
Not sure there is much r and d on a single pivot. And there are significant tax breaks with it, so doubt that has had any impact on orange
I suspect there is more than we think (unless you work there and know about it all)...
Santa Cruz might be amazing but I had a look at a 5010 at Stif when they were 40% and couldn't get over how ugly it was. The head tube area looked like it had been popped out of a jelly mould! I expected that type of finish on my old Whippet but not SC. Didn't they used to be purdy?
Filing cabinet, blah, blah, but at least the latest Orange bikes look interesting. Far more detailed than they used to be with lots of lovely folds. If you haven't seen a recent one close up you should do.
I am sure they are progressing single pivots. The point was that r and d is largely cost neutral due to the R and D tax system in the UK, so I'd be massively shocked if that was a single contributory factor for Orange's financial struggles. In fact, the only company I can think of where it might apply would be Atherton with their new technology and methods.
Think there's enough other comments on here to speculate what the issue is likely to be for Orange to get into this position
I'm not surprised Orange have folded. For several years I thought they were very expensive for the spec, but always dismissed it as part paying for the name and partly so many people raving about how much they loved them. But then I went on a demo day last year. I think I rode three. I hated the hardtail (clockwork?) it just felt terrible. And really wasn't impressed by either of the full sussers. OK on a few laps on each, but I came away really surprised and disappointed.
But it's really a shame to see them go.
suspendedanimation
In fact, the only company I can think of where it might apply would be Atherton with their new technology and methods.
I think Robot bikes may have absorbed a lot of the initial cost there, they failed before Atherton took over.
Orange havent gone anywhere yet , id be hard pushed to look at any other bikes, getting me back on the trail with various warranty claims they have been superb . Great bikes and great staff , trim down the range and a restructure they will rise back to the top .
sheepshifter
Orange havent gone anywhere yet , id be hard pushed to look at any other bikes, getting me back on the trail with various warranty claims they have been superb
What went wrong, for those of use who are interpreting your comment as "I had an Orange which broke more than once"?
Or 'I had more than one Orange that broke'.
A bottle can be squeezed in on some Orange frames. It’s a bit Heath Robinson though and also shock specific as there isn’t a lot of room there.
I mostly use a bladder and use the bottle when it’s hot out and I don’t want a sticky back.
Can’t see me getting rid of this bike. Almost 7 years old, still hasn’t let me down and still rides well.
EDIT: Eh? I replied to the other thread and my post ended up here. Well I thought I did.
My money is on Orro going in February...
Not long before the website will be back up. 👍
Companies that took 'outside' cash during the covid upturn are the ones seemingly in the most trouble, those and obviously the ones that expanded to meet demand that didn't continue.
I can see a few of the small component manufacturers fitting into that by how things look.
Its also obvious Cotic are in damage limitation mode, selling of groupsets etc at bargain prices - hopefully they get back on track, Cotic are one of the good guys for sure.
Has anyone else seen that video of an Orange (2 and whatever the other two numbers are) DH frame breaking into several pieces on landing a drop off, when those things fail they go big time, they practically disassemble. Hopefully someone uploads it.
Reported in cycling weekly that Scott has taken a £137M loan from their parent company to stay afloat
Wow, you could buy Orange and CRC for that (probably).
I've always assumed Scott are selling a lot of bikes on the continent because the number of them that I see here doesn't match up to what I can see they're spending on marketing.
Wasn't there discussions that they'd been making £20m+ profits each year....I kinda got confused after reading that.
from the article the loan is to help their liquidity. Holding large inventory, especially parts etc. and where for that inventory on paper they could not quickly or reliable be converted into cash, impact a company's hard liquidity tests of financial health.
At least they have a sufficient liquid parent to assist.
Speaking of roadies/Campag I heard Rapha might be in trouble too. Anyone selling expensive luxury items are going to struggle in the current economic climate. Job vacancies in my line are down about 70% YoY, I know several people who were made redundant in the last 6 months and read about hundreds more, the big recruitment consultancies have been chopping hundreds of roles as there are no vacancies to chase. The US national debt is now over 30 trillion dollars, defaults on US car loans are running at 60%, banks are getting increasingly desperate, in the UK we're still suffering the effects of QE money printing to finance the lock downs, the dollar is no longer the currency of oil trades, Middle eastern ahem instability doesn't help. And just feeding and clothing the family and paying the bills with a little left over for an annual holiday is a struggle for many.
and all signs are it's going to get much worse before it gets better.
On the plus side I hear Kier Starmer's crowd have a great track record when it comes to managing the nation's finances, so at least there's hope for the end of the year right?
Weren’t Rapha bought out by Walmart or something? I was pretty sure they have some very rich owners now. I could be wrong (I often am).
@noeffsgiven - not seen the video, can you link it so we can all see it please. I have seen the one where the front end snaps off the GT Fury at a WC race though. All bikes will fail at come point, and depending on where it will be big or small.
Scott (and the wider Scott Sports group) are massive, they are under-represented here in the UK i think relative to the size of their market share in Europe.
As for
Scott Sports has received a loan of CHF 150million (£137m, $174m) to help “improve its financial structure” and balance its high stock inventory.
Well I've just bought (Link(in) a Scott product at half price because it was sitting around in the UK warehouse for a year... they had three of them, so thats potentially 15 grands worth of 'sale' that was gathering dust... that quickly multiplies up a bit doesnt it!
@snotrag - do you have details of where they were being sold cheap? I'm very much an external cables and alu type, but have a friend who has one of these as his dream bike, if they are available cheap in small size he'd be all over it
Well I’ve just bought (Link(in) a Scott product at half price because it was sitting around in the UK warehouse for a year… they had three of them, so thats potentially 15 grands worth of ‘sale’ that was gathering dust… that quickly multiplies up a bit doesnt it!
Not really related to any manufacturer but it does point to a problem with having a 'new' model each year. If you have any stock that sits there too long at some point it suddenly loses 30% of it's value.
Personally I wouldn't be sorry to see the back of model years.
I thought they were very expensive for the spec, but always dismissed it as part paying for the name and partly so many people raving about how much they loved them
Nothing at all about UK manufacture...?
I'd never buy something ugly and expensive that I don't really want, just because it's made in the UK.
I’ve always assumed Scott are selling a lot of bikes on the continent because the number of them that I see here doesn’t match up to what I can see they’re spending on marketing.
I was in Switzerland a few years back. The hybrid/low end xc hardtail for riding around forest paths and bike lanes seemed to be near exclusively Scotts.
Proportion of profit from them vs high end wunderbikes is probably significant, but we only see the high end models in the UK.
Speaking of roadies/Campag I heard Rapha might be in trouble too.
A £12 million loss apparently, but ' an independent auditor said that they have not identified "material concerns" that could cast any "significant doubt" over Rapha's future, at least for the next twelve months from when the financial documents were issued'. So that's okay then...
https://road.cc/content/news/rapha-announces-loss-ps106-million-304903
So that’s okay then…
In that report you linked (thanks for that, interesting reading) The CEO was talking about making "negative profits" I'm using that the next time I'm reporting the financial position here.
Anyway, who's next, could be anyone, who knows what they're all hiding? Zwift have reduced staff by 15%, Spesh have cut staff by 8%, even Shimano had a terrible year.