 You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
Beyond the obvious (simply saying COVID-19) what is causing the current supply issues with bikes? Trek seem to be showing availability of the EX5 next May/ June, spoke to a Giant dealer about one of their models, a single bike arriving in October, another one in January. I'm not buying a load of stuff at the moment, but don't seem to have problems getting hold of anything else.
COVID. Simple as. Manufacturers just don't have enough to meet demand and many are actually telling dealers what they can have, rather than dealers placing orders for whatever they want. Parts availability isn't helping production, I understand Fox are having issues with stock at the moment which is holding up a lot of bikes, I dare say Shimano and Sram are struggling to keep up with demand both OE and OEM too, which leads to more delays. All it takes is for one part to be delayed and the whole shipment of bikes is held up.
Most likely, supply chain is disrupted due to covid 19. There may also be increased demand due to fear of public transport.
Thing with manufacturing is that it's vulnerable to a single failure. You cannot sell a bike if any single component is missing, so one factory that has to close due to a covid outbreak can cause huge disruption. Factories have to retool for new season's models, so an outbreak in a factory equipment supplier can cause havoc. Manufacturing relies on a huge network of interconnected industries, so a problem in one country can cascade through the entire global supply chain.
Beyond manufacturing, products have to be packaged and shipped. If the factory making cardboard boxes has to close, that shuts down all their customers. If any link in the shipping chain is disrupted, that can cause backlogs that cascade through the system.
Its just a volume issue mainly. As mentioned its a composite of parts, so if one part is out then building bikes becomes more difficult. Lead times (due to volumes of orders) have gone from 1-3m average to 3-12m. So if you want to build a bike in 3 months your choice for what can go on it and who can make it becomes very limited. That for some manufacturers has meant that bikes are going to be very late. For others who were more on the case (increasing lead times didn't pose a problem until late into lock down) and can be more flexible, then its not really an issue other than there's a gap in supply as stocks are now out and they're waiting on restocking.
Just heard that some 2021 Trek hybrids won't be available until August.