Every year we make our predictions for the world of mountain biking. Some take it seriously, some less so…
Last year Mark predicted that the influencer bubble would burst… does Specialized dropping its global ambassadors counts as evidence he might be right? He also predicted that there would be cheaper ebikes… we’re still waiting on that one. Hannah might have got the access and corporate social responsibility stuff about right last year, though it looks like it’s going to happen more in 2023 – this year has been one where people have come together and said ‘oh yeah, this needs to happen, how do we do it?’. A shout out to Mattoutandabout, who in last year’s comments said ‘utility bikes become fashionable and the next N+1’. We’re seeing interest in cargo bikes take off massively, probably helped along by the cost of fuel, so let’s award an internet point for that prediction. Another shout out is due to nickc who said ‘EWS will die a death as it currently operates (not sustainable)’ – we think the whole joining the UCI/ESO/Discovery project counts as a pretty significant restructuring.
What ideas have we got for you this year?
Mark: Publisher
Bike Industry In Crisis
What a doom mongering headline, eh? The last few years of near apocalypse have resulted in bike companies putting in back orders for stock and parts like crazy and now those orders are starting to come through – just in time for a global recession that means there’s no one in much of a mind to buy any of it. On the face of it this sounds like good news for us Joe Public as there’s likely to be some really heavy discounting going on, but that only works if you have some money going spare to buy even the cheap stuff. How it’s all going to turn out is anyone’s guess but it isn’t going to be a year of stability and smooth sailing for anyone involved in the bike industry.
The digital landscape in 2023
I reckon Twitter will probably survive, despite Elon’s best efforts, but the trend towards social media becoming a depressing environment is going to get worse. Many of us are already switching off the social apps and on balance that’s probably going to be good for all our sakes. Facebook has this year given the middle finger to publishers like us and is just getting on with doing something with the metaverse and hoping everyone keeps using Instagram. TikTok will keep the attention of the youth for another year. But the days of massive growth and reach for not just the tech giants but for websites that rely on Google to bring in the big numbers are coming to an end. It’s good news though, as those users that stick around on their favourite websites will be the core of their communities and as we’ve seen many times in our own community of Singletrackworld, real communities are full of people that look out for each other and become stronger for it.
Hannah: Managing Editor
Budget Marketing
I think I got the ‘experience’ marketing angle right last year, but as brands are tightening their advertising budgets this year, I think there will be fewer and fewer big budget adventures being funded by brands. The professional adventurers will swap far flung mountains for the trails on their doorsteps, and bike launches will be low-key local affairs with online presentations. Expect to see fewer big budget launch videos and far flung glamour shots of new bikes.
Value Engineering
In reality, I think it will be 2024, and maybe even 2025 before we really see this coming through. Lead times and order commitments are just too far out to turn the ship quickly, although some smaller brands with in house construction capacity may manage to pull a few rabbits out of hats towards the end of 2023. But I do think we’re going to see a push for better value bikes – a little less bling but still great performance at a lower price point. It feels to me like unless it’s a craft/artisan/local product, people aren’t that interested in expensive high end performance. The tech is so good, the gains so marginal, and people perhaps just a little less materialistic. Bike companies with big orders for top end bikes are going to sweat it a little until they clear that inventory and can refocus on bikes with a price tag that weighs less heavily on the pocket.
Handguards
Branches are whippy, fingers are delicate, and handguards are overdue a comeback. Especially in the e-bike world, where weight is less of an issue, and riders may well be a little older, I can see hand guards being a popular addition. Colour coordinated to your bike, or with messages on akin to the tattoos you were never rebellious enough to get: Love/Hate, Ride/More, Be Nice/Say Hi.
Onshoring
Off the back of covid (and Russian) disruptions, the world generally has realised that supply chains are vulnerable, and bike brands are no different. Ongoing uncertainty over relations with China, and nervousness about some of the military movements around Taiwan, has already seen some electronics companies moving some production to India and Vietnam. Expect the bike industry to seek more certainty by manufacturing more products closer to home, and establishing more of their own production facilities. Stanton Bikes may have struggled to make local manufacturing work, but I don’t think their operating model was far off the mark. Bigger brands with more cash flow will find it easier to make the shift, and on the whole I think it will, eventually, be a good thing. Along the way, there will be casualties, mergers, and buyouts, as brands look to restructure and purchase manufacturing capacity.
Disruption to the Downhill Scene
Yes, the whole package of EWS, XCO and DH is under one roof, but it’s the Downhill scene where riders have options. Or, where the rumours are that there will be some strong options. I think Red Bull will indeed run their own series – possibly in conjunction/collaboration/takeover with the iXS downhill series. Red Bull will also, I think, turn Hardline into a series. Which would give riders and teams – who have only just found out what next year’s UCI/ESO season will look like – plenty of choice about where they choose to compete. It seems like the UCI/ESO set up hasn’t done much by way of rider consultation, and while the proposals look like they’ll deliver exciting racing, it’s asking a lot of riders. And the word is there’s no extra prize money to reflect all that extra effort and potential risk. As workers of the world elsewhere unite, it doesn’t seem a stretch to imagine some riders and teams deciding to use their collective power to squeeze better terms out of the UCI/ESO set up for 2024. Whoever gets that commentary gig for 2023 is going to have their work cut out.
Charlie: Merch Monger
Charlie makes the same prediction every year we get him to predict anything. One day he’ll be right…
Singlespeed will make a comeback in 2023
Right now, the availability and prices of new bike parts is an uncomfortable or unachievable hurdle for many. The first wave of singlespeeders from 20 years ago have now blown their knees, walk most of the climbs, and only show up for the occasional beer run. So, you can see the scene is ready to lure in a new generation of tech shunners with fresh knees. Ah yes, the new wave of tofu eating bike’erati on their upcycled, recycled, and downcycled… cycles. Ripping along (steadily) on their steel steeds, gurning out climbs like it’s a 90’s rave, and relishing the awesome wisdom that can only be gained from descending on a rigid fork. It’s going to be awesome. There will be stickers proclaiming that “every time you ride a carbon bike, a wizard dies”. This prediction will be 100% correct. However, if you don’t see one speeds taking over the trails, it’s not because it didn’t happen, it’s because its underground and turbo cool, and you just ain’t… gear boy.
Amanda: Art Director
Reversible Tyres
I never do a good job of predictions, I tend to suggest things that I want to be invented as opposed to things that are likely to be. So in my usual style, I ‘predict’ (request) reversible tyres. Slick one side, grippy the other, so you can go bikepacking with the option of efficiency on the Tactical Tarmac sections. I don’t have a solution for the tubeless sealant… I fear these would only work with tubes. I am ready to be roasted in the comments section – come at me, sceptics!
Heated eBike Seats
I’m not talking about trail/enduro ebikes, but the cargobikes, shoppers and leisure bikes. The kind you’d see pottering along the seafront with a wrapped up elderly rider on. This idea came to me on a recent ride in the snow – we stopped to drink hot chocolate from our flasks and regain feeling in our fingers, and when I got back on my bike the icey cold saddle penetrated my bibs and waterproofs.
Chipps: Editor At Large
Buyers’ Market (assuming you’ve got any money left)
There will be some epic bike bargains in 2023. Remember during Covid when bike companies faced a 660 day lead time to get new tyres or gear components? Well, anyone who ordered 10,000 tyres back then will be getting them about now. They may even have doubled up and ordered 10,000 from another company just in case. All of those bikes and components that were ordered when lockdown interest in bike riding went through the roof… will be turning up in the next few months.
The trouble is, anyone who wanted a bike during lockdown has either got one now, or lost interest, or has more important (but dull) things to do with their money. Meanwhile, those factories have been making new bikes based on (sometimes panicked) projections from 2020 – and they’re all heading this way in thousands of containers. At the very least, it’s going to be a buyers’ market for the next year or so until production comes back into line with demand.
Integration up the wazoo
We’ve seen an acceleration in bike-model-specific integration. Stems that only fit a particular handlebar or head tube, concealed cables, wireless forks that need a family of sensors in the shock, crank and shifter to work – you get the idea. It was, ironically SRAM that originally brought an anti-competition court case against Shimano for making its complete groupsets way cheaper than the individual components so that bike companies specced the whole thing, freezing out makers of single shifters, like SRAM and Mavic. This theme has grown over the years in the name of seamless integration of components and the smooth and flowing ride. But, as engineers point out that their shifters work best with the mount that fits on to their own brakes, the pick ‘n’ mix component spec game of years gone by has disappeared: if you want that shifter, or that Scott lockout lever, then you’re going to have to run that brake lever. With the shifter companies all running their own component brands (Shimano owns Pro, SRAM owns Truvativ) it’s not hard to see them edging towards more and more internal cable and hose routing. I reckon ’23 is going to be the year of over-excessive integration in the name of Progress.
Benji: Technical Content Manager
Benji is on his holidays, but has sent these predictions, which are all the more mystic for being brief missives rather than fully expounded upon thesis.
- The Return Of Normal Ebikes (full power motor, not massive battery)
- The Return Of Metal Trail Bikes (140-150mm 29ers)
- Bike Shops No Longer Stocking Bikes and Just Doing Repairs And Accessories
- Continental Joining The Rubber Podium (with Maxxis and Schwalbe)
- World Cup ending up being chaotic and amazing
What do you think? Are we way off the mark? What do you predict is coming this year? Head to the comments!
