Singletrack’s 2021 Predictions

New year, new us, that kind of thing. It’s at this time of year that we ask our team for some predictions for the year ahead. No cheating or open textbooks (or 2021 OEM brochures) allowed – just based on what they’ve seen and how they reckon the world of bikes, racing and bike people is moving around

Here is our story with last year’s predictions: https://singletrackmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/singletrack-predictions-for-2020/ How many of those were even close in our crazy 2020? Find out below, along with some hot tips for what to watch for in 2021…

Chipps’ 2021 Predictions

My predictions for 2020 didn’t foretell a global pandemic, but I don’t think that many predictions actually did. I did suggest a few things, but they may not have gone to plan so far. I’m going to have to check my pipeline from the future for leaks.

For 2020, I predicted:

• Wireless XTR – That’s a no then. Still no sign. However, 2021 is an Olympic year and Shimano’s 100th birthday, so if ever there was a time.
• More Events Cancelled Due To Bad Weather – There weren’t many events to cancel, so that’s a tough call, but the weekends of traditional summer deluge events like Mountain Mayhem, the Malverns Classic and the Three Peaks were all quite nice this year. Look out 2021 then…
• A carbon backlash – with UK firms developing more steel hardtail and full suspension chassis, there’s hope, but it’s hardly a landslide.

So, what do I have for you for 2021? Let’s fire up the crystal ball (bearings) and see…

Events cancelled

I don’t think we’re out of the Covid woods yet and I can still see a few events even going into the summer that’ll be curtailed or cancelled. Can you imagine a spectator-free Fort William DH or Olympic final? It’s unimaginable, but it’s what many football games have been doing for the autumn. Could something like Fort Bill even make financial sense if there weren’t spectators? It’s one to keep a close eye on as we start to see event listings for next year.

Unspecified scandal

I’m not sure what sort, but I think it’s high time we had some kind of public scandal that isn’t your run of the mill drugs bust. Industrial espionage, a noted bike designer defecting to a different company, a finish line punch up, a torrid affair between a commissaire and a racer. You know, that kind of thing. I’m claiming the film rights, OK?

27.5 no more? Firms move away, apart from smaller frame sizes

They’ve shown that they can make 29er bikes ride, steer, jump and slide as well as 26 and even 27.5in wheels, so I can see the start of a move away from 27.5in wheeled new bikes – with the exception of smaller frame sizes, where the dimensions do make more sense. And once one company starts dropping non-big wheels…

Cheaper and more electronics

It’s nearly two years since SRAM’s AXS Eagle groupset launched, while Shimano’s XTR Di2 launched way, (way!) back in 2014. Even XT Di2 launched in 2016 – a full five years ago. 

Take up of electronic gears has been enthusiastic among those who could afford it and those who didn’t pay full price for it. For many other riders, though, paying £800 or so for a shifter, batteries and whizzy mech is too much. I can see cheaper electric gear systems coming – either someone like MicroShift or TRP is going to make an affordable electric gear system, or we’re going to see a splash from Shimano with a full set of electric gears in time for its 100th anniversary next year. And the trickle-down effect will be felt for SRAM too as its AXS Eagle is out of reach for too many everyday riders, especially the younger riders who won’t have the tech reliability concerns that us older folks do.

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Charlie’s 2021 Predictions

Mullets.

Lockdown has been a great opportunity for many people to grow their hair long, however its not all cool good looks. You see, there is a point when the front gets long enough to hang into your soup and generally get in the way when fixing your bike. The solution is not only simple, its also 80’s retro cool. Simply trim the front down and resurrect the “mullet”. Short at the front, long at the back. This will be super amusing to people who remember the 80’s. All these youngsters sporting that old and often mocked look, don’t they remember Pat Sharp? It will be youngsters who adopt the mullet, and the indications that the mullet will be big are already there in the fashion world. Will helmet manufacturers design in mullet chutes to channel the rear end mullet radness?

Feck it, I am riding my bike.

Being stuck in the world’s 3^rd most lethal covid country (approx. 1 in 1,000 have died), which has also chosen to leave the world’s largest free trade/movement area is going to get pretty bloody tiresome. We can expect supply problems, increased costs, transport restrictions, no chance of riding in the Alps and constantly changing UK restrictions that make even UK breaks tricky. But we are still going to ride, and we are going to want that ride more than ever. We wont care if X brand has a new bike with extra something. We won’t give a hoot who won some event that was sanitised beyond recognition for covid. We won’t even care how fast or far we ride. When the pressure starts to build up, laptops will be closed, shed doors flung open, and bikes will be ridden, and for an hour or so we will have the wind in our hair and not a care in the world.

Trail ales, and jumpers for goal posts: the return of the underground events.

Cycling events have been hit hard in 2020. However, there is a lot more informal social cycling going on. The big budget mega event has been replaced by homebrewed events like the Tuesday night beer ride. Folk who like to race are not sitting still, they are organising informal staggered start long distance events, and DH races with no marker tape, no entry fee, no insurance, nothing written down, and if anyone asks no one knows nothing, right! This is how the events I organised started many years ago, and if the organiser can stomach the growing pains, I hope we will see many of these new underground scenes on our calendars when we arrive at the new normal.

The return of the Singlespeed

Stuck riding the same local loops? Can’t get a mech hanger for your bouncy fancy pants bike? 2021 will be the perfect conditions for breeding a new generation of bike bodgers looking to do things differently. Why singlespeed? The three F’s is the answer:

• FUN: It’s more fun because you have to attack the climbs and avoid the brakes when coming down.
• FITNESS: bloody hell will it make you fit, and your flabby covid man tits will soon become pert and impressive.
• FICENCY: yeah it is way more ‘ficent without all the clutter of gear danglers and an array of esoteric knobs and levers that I can’t be arsed to understand.

Hannah’s 2021 Predictions

Last year I predicted:

• Less Is More – there were a few more shorter travel but radder of intention bikes out there. I’ll claim a slice of a point.
• Cheaper Bikes – there were some strong contenders in the full suspension department – making it possible to buy a full suspension bike for less than a hardtail in some instances. Plus, some well priced hard tails too – but perhaps supply issues and Brexit mean we’re not going to see much value to come.
• Eco Consciousness – meh. Not massively. So, we’re all still doomed then.

This year I’m predicting:

The resurgence of Shimano

We’ve seen a huge number of SRAM equipped bikes in the last couple of years – not surprising when SRAM had 1x and Shimano botched a launch of a groupset with huge delays between launch and availability. With Shimano’s supply issues apparently resolved and the launch of the very effective Deore and SLX groupsets at the budget end of the 1x market, I think we’ll see a lot more Shimano on complete bikes next year.

Restructured Race Support

With uncertainty over which events will actually take place, and brands having explored new ways of marketing without races in 2020, I think there’ll be a shift in race sponsorship habits. Teams with support staff are expensive, and bike companies have done pretty well this year without race coverage. I think we’ll see fewer big team set ups, and more sponsored privateers (if that’s not an oxymoron) who can be more flexible in their travel arrangements than a whole team and entourage. They’ll also be able to produce ‘content’ as well as race results, to give brands the coverage they need when there aren’t any races.

Waterproof Flat Boots

I think the FiveTen will finally produce a sticky soled Goretex boot for flat pedal riders. The rest of the shoe world will wonder why they didn’t think of it first, and lots of you will say ‘but waterproof socks work fine!’. If you ride clips and flats, you will know that this is not true: a proper pair of clippy winter boots are amazing. Let’s extend the pleasure of toasty toes to the flat world folks too.

Price Increases

It hardly seems plausible that bikes could cost even more than some do already, but I think that’s going to be the case. Things might get more sensible come 2022 – especially if it becomes easier to go on a little holiday and bring back a bike shaped souvenir – but in the UK I’d expect the effects of Covid induced supply and restrictions costs to get an extra few quid added on top for border uncertainty and complications. On the plus side, UK based companies might be able to close the gap on some of the bigger European and direct-to-consumer brands, but that’ll be a case of prices going up to close the gap, not coming down to beat the competition.

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Amanda

Last year I predicted better public transport for bikes. We can continue dreaming there, and as for next year:

Entry level kit

One positive to pull from the COVID CHAOS is that there’s a new market of bike riders. Some have gone back to bikes, some are completely new to this world, but they all need to buy a heap of new kit to get them rolling. I predict some low end, affordable ranges of protection, shoes, kit and even components to be targeted at these new riders. The type of things nobody actually needs, but with good marketing they believe they do. Like eBike specific socks.

Smaller bikes

Early teens and anyone below 5ft must really struggle for choice in today’s market. There are some women’s specific options that go down to an XS frame size, but what about shorter blokes that don’t want to ride a ‘women’s’ bike? I don’t think they’ll be available to buy in 2021 because I can’t see there being many bikes at all available, but I do think/hope brands might look to cater for shorter riders a bit more.

Smaller events

People are missing their mates, the competition, the social aspect and the challenge of racing. I can’t see many events getting the go ahead next year, particularly the bigger ones, so I’m predicting that a lot more ‘mates races’ or small local ones pop up. Limited numbers, not broadly advertised, and no crazy levels of planning. Throw up some tape in the woods, make sure it’s a day when the local chip shop is open so people can feed themselves, and turn a blind eye to the rules… (Note: this is a prediction, not a suggestion!)

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Andi’s 2021 Predictions

Last Year I Predicted:

• Inductive battery tech.
• Bigger single crown forks
• More YouTubers and more non-bike brand sponsors.

This year I’m predicting:

Massively delayed launches

At the time of writing, I know of a handful of bikes that should have already launched but haven’t because of supply chain and lead time issues. It’s not a small issue either. All brands are suffering with lead time and I know that some parts are on backorder and won’t be available until 2022! Not only will this mean that complete bikes will be delayed, but it could also mean that cool components that we expect to see in 2021 won’t actually be available for months.

Small brands becoming mainstream

With the big names suffering with supply chain issues, I predict we’re going to see brands that we’re less familiar with pop up on builds and in stores. I see this especially with drivetrains but perhaps tyres, and other parts too. At the moment we rely on SRAM and Shimano for drivetrains, but if you search around there are plenty of smaller brands like Sunrace, Microshift e.t.c. 2021 could be the year that these smaller brands make their mark and move into the mainstream.

Lots more mullets

I expect more eBikes to launch with mismatched wheels, in fact speaking with people in the industry, the Mullet could soon be the eBike norm. But I also expect mullets to crop up more often on regular bikes too. Orange already had mullets this year, but expect more brands to jump on the bandwagon either with mullet options of current 29ers or adjustable framesets that will allow you to swap out the rear wheel without upsetting the handling.

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So, that’s what we have for you in 2021. Reckon we’re close? Or way off the mark? What do you reckon the year will bring? Comments always welcome below…